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Sunday, July 31, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -July 31st- Weekend Commentary

Market Timing-Whats Next -July 24th - Weekend Commentary

Today's TALKS WILL NOT GO ANYWHERE
and Monday's market is already setup for a fall
but today sets the stage for the MEDIA to CROON about impending DOOM

Today's PSYCH READ calls for high hopes & big expectations Evaporate ,
moodiness & impatience deter completion
KEEP in MIND, I DONT MAKE THIS UP
& it was WRITTEN MONTHS AGO for publication this month

THE ABOVE was published on JULY 24th and the week that followed watched the DOW
LOSE 533 points
____________________________________________
____________________________________________

SO NOW WHATS NEXT
As previously mentioned in case you didnt read it here,
FRIDAY July 29th -THE DAY improves as it progresses
Saturday July 30th - Enjoyable & energetic
Sunday - look for exciting, surprising & liberating experiences

ITS SUNDAY AM And the MEDIA is reporting the HOUSE & DEMS are close to making a deal
with compromises from both parties. HOWEVER, FOX is reporting the Republicans are getting the better part of the deal, and they are laughing at Senator Reid, and the PRES.
NEAL CAVUTO just said, He doesnt think this deal will cut it, and I AGREE.


August 1st Monday, as PREVIOUSLY mentioned, calls for
EARLY POSITIVES
BUT easy come- easy go
Expect INTENSE encounters 
OVER REACHING leads to CRASH & BURN


SO, as far as the MKT is concerned, we can expect the indeces to complete a 4th wave
that began off the 1282 open low, then rebounding 20 points to 1304 at 11am, but closing at 1292.
THUS the ELLIOTT FORMATION appears to have completed wv a & b of [IV]- whats left now is wv c of [IV].
thus
WITH a HIGH ENERGY open now expected Monday as per the above readings for JULY 31st, and Aug 1st, we can expect that wave [IV] to run up Friday's equal of 20pts now to SPX 1312, THUS COMPLETING wave [IV] of E ,but then what? WAVE [V] of E, of course.
*********************************************
IMV
That open high Monday AM WILL offer one of the best shorting opps since Oct1,2008
*************************************************
MOST TECHS seem to have spx 1260 to  SPX 1220 as a target PIVOT low this week.

That would = 400 to 700 Dow points to finish an [E]-4th wave low & pivot for 
YES, 
A WAVE 5 THRUST from that low to a possible high of 1381, on or before August 8th, 
a date that I projected weeks ago for an important TOP & High of the year.


More Later
Jay





Market Timing-Whats Next -July 29th RECAP Last week



Written & Submitted on JULY 24th to
THE VPN Group advantage - A RECAP last weeks VPN report

WITH a SO CALLED BREAK DOWN of BUDGET talks
the MEDIA is NOW focused again on CRISIS

DUH, HOW BI POLAR can you get??

One minute they're euphoric , then the bubble bursts
sounds just the stock market -[gg]

Gang of 6- another JOKE
The JOKES on the BULLS come Monday

July 25th
Squabbles & stubborn disagreements till Mid day
Friendlier afternoon

Neg energy at 1:05pm
156b@ 1pm
52hr cycle from 11th @ 2pm
50%/13 day at 2:30pm
This looks like a strong cycle convergence after 1pm till 2:30

__________________
July 26th
stable morning & cooperation
but DONT Squander $$
impatience & demanding returns later

26hrs at 10am
Pos energy at 11;36am
Neg energy at 12;52pm
228b@ 12;30
**258B @ 3PM **
Midnite LOW TIDE



_________________________
July 27th
EMBRACE NEW IDEAS
NEW STARTS FAVORED
BOLD & Inventive

Pos enegy peaks at 3;43Pm
90bars @ 4pm

______________
July 28th
39hrs at 10am
Romantic start
Confusion later & Major clashes

Pos energy at
9:20am
12;51Pm
2;33pm

neg energy at
4;44pm
5;26pm not sure how this will effect trading

120 B @ noon
150b@ 2;30
_______________
July 29th
LAY LOW
Quiet contemplation
better later in the day


More Later
Jay

Friday, July 29, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -July 29th - GDP hits futures hard, but ----

Looks like Wv "a" of [iv] at 1304, Wv "b" @ 1292, now expecting wv "c"-[iv] Mon AM @ 1312
JULY 29th at 9am

LOWER OPEN TO IMPORTANT SUPPORT AT 1285
BUT THEN WHAT??

POWER DATA , ENERGY, PSYCH read all indicate a BETTER CLOSE
THE DAY GETS BETTER AS IT PROGESSES

THIs AM open ELLIOTT a wave III low
AS previously mentioned, MONDAY AM opens EXACT opposite of today  =WAVE IV

BUT FADES quickly after 11am wave V of [E]
again = EXACT opposite of today

That means a MARKET PLUNGE on Aug 1, 2 & 3
PRES invokes 14th Amendnt LATE on 3rd,, AND BOOM
ON Aug 4th & 5th -we get a dow rally just like OCT 28th, 2008 of near 1000 DOW pts in one or 2 days

MORE LATER
Jay

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -July 29th at midnite - WARNINGS ABOUND

IT WOULD APPEAR FROM EVERYTHING THAT I STUDY< that we are on the EDGE of a MARKET
collapse and SIMILAR behavior to TARP week of 2008

FUTURES are nearing 1290 as I write this, and UNLESS there is something good about the GDP
& other data int he AM, then a continuation of the SLIDE is eminent

IT IS POSSIBLE that JULY 22nd was the LAST BULLISH HURRAH for this LEG
That means to me the current Elliott wave is NOW in C of [E] with NO reprieve until
the PRES invokes the 14th Amend late on the 3rd to SAVE the MKTS from complete
collapse & a US debt default.

THIS TENSION is exactly what happened in 2008 just before Tarp got approved
I could go on & On, but I THINK YOU GET THE PICTURE

I had to get this off my mind and let you know what ive been thinking
More Later
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -July 28th - Wave update

FROM COLUMBIA- HIS SERVICE is a monthly fee, and provides graphs as above

According to his outlook, we NOW have RESISTANCE at 1319.87

After that, IMV, we could see a sell off similar to TARP week, 2008

More Later
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -July 28th - CLOSING Report

PRELIM FOR FRIDAY
SURGE ?? WHAT SURGE - NOT TODAY**
IT STILL HAS TO COME BEFORE THE FALL
as Ellioters we tend to end waves TOOO SOON,and I fell into that trap yesterday
Wave 5 of iii is closing out today at 1299 at 3:50pm

Short term OVERSOLD and PC ratios are 90% BULLISH , means WV IV has to come tomrrow
and finish Monday AM- THEN WV V still SET for Monday after 11am

Better GDP could be catalyst and ignore the Washington crap ??
BUT a 4th wave MUST OCCUR
1299 to 1347 = 47 pts
x 50% = 23 to 1323 to as high as 62% at 1330
________________________________
NOT TODAY
2pm UPDATE LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A LATE CLOSING SURGE TODAY, so ignore the 9am
EKG and use this one

9:30am Impact stream recovering
JULY 28th @ 9am IGNORE this graph- {{use the 2pm EKG}}

YESTERDAY"S EKG (not shown) did drop off late afternoon

Expect a high energy peak today at either 1pm and or 2:33pm
And late drop off -- NOW EXPECTING A SURGE INTO TODAY"S CLOSE

Psych read
ENERGIZING & romantic
NEW IDEAS TODAY- BOLD NEW INITIATIVES
 _____________________________________________
IGNORE this section (BUT DECEPTIVE CONFUSION LATER & confrontations with Authority)
That was MUCH more appropriate for YESTERDAY
More Later
Jay

TOMRROW, however should start off POORLY and make a low at around 2pm
then close higher for the day

Heres the way wv 'iv' should progress
wv "a" of iv today
wv 'b" of iv tomrrow at about 2pm
wv "c" of iv Monday b4 11am

AND OF COURSE we all know what comes next
Best Wishes
Jay
THIS IS WHAT YESTERDAY'S COMPLETE EKG LOOKED LIKE when reviewed
COMPLETE & CORRECTED EKG FOR JULY 27th- KEEP IN MIND I DONT MAKE THESE
graphs in the kitchen sink [g] - THEY ARE scientific resources and sometimes Scientists can be FICKLE
Jay

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -July 27th - Debt SAGA Creates UNCERTAINTY

July 27th @ 8am


THE BATTLE over raising the DEBT Rages on

IMV, THE ONLY WAY THE CEILING IS GOING TO BE RAISED IS BY PRESIDENTIAL DECREE

ONCE that gets done the mkts should respond quite well
BUT the BACKLASH the week after will not be to anyone's liking

Today
Should continue to slip lower thru most of the morning
Activity index at 8am is at its lowest value @ 33
A cycle convergence seems to be clustering during the NOON hour
ONCE that LOW is SET, then a rally should carry a rebound into late tomrrow

More Later
 uncertainty


TOMRROW"S PARTIAL EKG
Weve GOT GOOD WAVE STRUCTURE today for 3 of  3
wv 1 was 16pts 1347-1331
16X1.618= 26
wv 3 was 1338-1311= 27pts
wv 4 to 1320
wv 1320 to 1303 = 17 pts
NEXT MOVE IS COUNTER TREND UP
THis wkend has much power= new moon and Venus = The $$ influence
__________________________

THE REAL CRASH IS NEXT WEEK
***
1347=1303=44pts
44 X 62% = 27 _ 1303=1330 NEXT 3 days including MONDAY Morning till 11am



THE ORIGINAL PROJECTION was a low at 1305-1307 given the GAP on JULY19th at those levels. THE TIMING OF WHICH TOOK A LITTLE LONGER Than MY cycle work projected. BUT 4pm was a 90BARS cycle pivot and according to the EKG above, we should get a counter trend rally before the real crash.


Jay



Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -July 26th - Closing Report

July 26th @ 8:15am

Today
26hrs at 10am
pos energy at
11;36am
12:52 pm

Stable AM & teamwork possible
but dont squander your resources
Impatience & demanding later

204Bars @ 10:30am
228B @ 12:30
258b @ 3pm

CYCLE low due between 3 & 4pm
Convergence at 3pm seems most prominent

Recap yesterday
AM squabbles & mkt did drop over 100 dow pts at open on 120bars
friendlier at mid day - PRES offers new deal w/o revenue= MKT high at 1pm @ 1344
Slipped calmly lower into close @ 1337


more later
Jay
JUST AS PROJECTED
1:30pmMORE NOW
OPEN LOW to 10am @ 1330
rebound to 11:36high @ 1336 == 42% retrace
noon low at 1334
NOW just waiting for 3pm lod.
ED cycle hit at 4pm right on Schedule
Jay
LOW should hit tomorrow- Wed b4 1pm

Monday, July 25, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -July 25th - WALL ST Reacts To Debt Ceiling

July 25th @ 7:45am

I think its safe to say the OPEN wont change from anything that gets reported b4 9:30am

TODAY
STUBBORN DISAGREEMENTS & squabbles till mid day

Friendlier AFTERNOON - Calm is restored

Cycles
156b @ 1pm
180b @ 2pm

50%/13 day @ 2:30
52hrs july 11th at 2pm

Neg energy at 1:05pm
SOOO, what can we glean from this?

IMV, WE can expect a DOWN DAY till at least 1pm, and maybe as late as 2:30, but the cycle pivot convergence seems strongest between 1 & 2 pm


More Later
Jay

 10am 
IMPACT STREAM showing weakness today

 possible a-b-c to 1328 tomrrow
1347 to 1331 = 16 pts = 'a'
1331 to 1344 = 13 pts = 'b'
13/16 =81.3%- seems like they like that %age
16 pts wave equality
'c' 1344-16 = 1328  = a 4th wave
tomrrow at 3 to 4pm

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -July 24th - Weekend Commentary

Today's TALKS WILL NOT GO ANYWHERE
and Monday's market is already setup for a fall
but today sets the stage for the MEDIA to CROON about impending DOOM

Today's PSYCH READ calls for high hopes & big expectations Evaporate ,
moodiness & impatience deter completion
KEEP in MIND, I DONT MAKE THIS UP
& it was WRITTEN MONTHS AGO for publication this month


Jay
JOIN THE VPN Advantage
RECAP --last week's readings published on July 17th

Monday JULY 18th
666 trade days from Nov 21, 2008
CYCLE pivot LOW due at NOON
Afternooon call is for REWARDING
*********
made  a LOW at 11;45am at SPX1296 & recovered to 1305


Tuesday JULY 19th
Favorable & optimistic
spx to 1326


WEd July 20th Emotional confusion
spx to 1325


Ths jly 21
Lively & friendly 
spx to 1344
CYCLE PIVOT HIGH DUE AT 2pm, the spx hit 1346 three times including 1;30pm

Fri Jly22
enthusiasm  early& friendly all day
SPX to 1345


MORE LATER
Jay

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -July 23rd - Weekend Commentary

Budget TALKS COLLAPSE

2 sides speaking to each other 
in foreign languages

DUUUH !! 

Thats What IVE SAYING FOR WEEKS

THERE IS NO WAY ANY AGREEMENT is going to occur on or b4 August 2nd


THE PRES is GOING to be forced into invoking
some kind of decree or other maneuver to
GET the DEBT ceiling raised.

THEN watch the MKT THRUST rally as my graph shows 


BUT what happens 
THE FOLLOWING WEEK?
THE SHIT hits the fan full force as the BACKLASH from the other side makes it
to the MEDIA


BLAME everything on the Media
THEY were making a BIG DEAL of the 
BI- Partisan proposal from the gang of 6 on Wed. BUT one of the members the very next day
pretended he was not a part of it, and was negating that bill every chance he got.


ITS THE SAME thing they did with the HEALTH bill - IT was designed with a 
BI PARTISAN committee, and yet
when it came up for voting, they wanted no part of it.

THEY ARE NOT BIPARTISAN 
MORE LIKE
Bi-Polar



The CONGRESS is LIKE living with SCHIZO'S - ONE minute they're working with you, and in the next breath next its 
"We NEVER said that".


SOOOO, what I wrote about the bulls not 
liking this Monday NOW looks like a 
SURE THING

More later
Jay
 

Friday, July 22, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -July 22nd - Morning Wave report

This graph was published on JULY17th
Other than the interim drop to 1296, and rally to 1347 --it plays out the same

AND whats MORE - I NEVER LOST FOCUS, and got pushed around by the mkt rally
as Daneric and many other bloggers.

more later

Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -July 22nd - Morning Report

July 22 @ 8"30am
Daneric NOW has the mkt in the 5th wave and E-4 ended at 1296
previously , he had wave E-4 pegged for today at 1288

Today's action = same as XTIDE

Neg energy at 10am
60b @ 11:30
90b @ 2pm = IMV, could be the LOD

Monday CALLS for a LOW at1pm, with a HUGE RALLY shown on the PD for LATE Monday
and all day Tuesday where there is a CYCLE peak at 4pm

More later
Jay

ITS NOW 3pm and it LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL CLOSE WITH A WHIMPER
WHERES THAT F'n BEAR leg you promised? GRRR
I had to make some adjustments, but NOW YOU see that bloggers like Daneric have DONE
the SAME, but I never waivered and the chart above NOW agrees with HIs latest, but MINE was PUBLISHED on JULY17th- Hmmm


Bulls >> enjoy the wkend because YOU WONT LIKE MONDAY or Tuesday


WE had a typical numerolgy month
high near the 5th, actual on 7th
Low near 15th, actual on  18th
NOW turn on 23rd to hit Monday


Jay
 

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -July 21st - Closing report

The MAIN CYCLE due at 2pm did hit at 1;30 today at 1347,
and the CHANGE EFFECTS of it can be delayed more than 2 hours, which means TOMRROW's
OPEN should be QUITE NASTY if YOUR a bull - Jay @ 4pm
This Morning's EKG was NOT WORKING WELL< and NOW finally at 1:30
A more complete pic of todays activity is available.  THE MAIN PIVOT CYCLE
Bottomed ON the 18th at NOON and the NEXT CYCLE PEAK IS NOW DUE AT
2pm TODAY from which there should be quite a sell off. 
the gain was a fibo 81.6% of 49pts/60 
THE SELL OFF should be at least 62% of 49 pts =31 pts back to 1314 TODAY
or tomrrow at 11am at the latest. JAY  

July 21 @ 9:15am

Today might be a little more complicated than whats shown, but the net effect should be as shown

Today's low is cycled at 2pm


the notes from yesterday pertaining to today have not changed

After the open, there could be a gap making an initial low at noon

more later
Jay

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -JULY 20th HELGE REPORT

HELGE thru 8/5

DONT TRY TO USE HIS EXACT DATES- those seem to be flexible, imv

BUT the FLOW of UP/Dn activity seems to MATCH my outlook thru 8/5

Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -July 20th - afternoon Report

 
UPDATE AT 3pm
WITH NO SELL OFF OF ANY IMPORTANCE TODAY
we can surmise there is ONE MORE THRUST coming at open tomorrow
before they back off to 1313 level
heres the math
tell me what yu think after tomrrow's open
60x78.6%=47+1296=1343
47x 62% = 29 - 1343= 1313
Jay
July 20 @ 8:30am
Spill over from yesterday's rally looks like it needs another high to complete 5waves

How high is high??
1328.60 would appear as a likely target
If it goes thru that, then 1333 is MAXIMUM, but I really think that will wait for another day
or even possibly late today

We can see that the EKG confirms the Power data fora mid day low and strong recovery
into the close or tomrrow AM

more later
Jay
MORE NOW
today as mentioned should get to 1328.60 at or b4 10am

After a set back today at 11am to 1pm

they should run higher into the close thus giving 7/21 possible to 1333 at OPEN

REPEAT a set back THsday but this time into CLOSE

THEN a rally on Friday might get there again on CLOSE

that would setup Monday for a GOOD take away
1333-1296= 37 pts gained
37X 78.6% =29
Monday could go all the way back to
1333-29=1304

60pts lost x 62% = 37+1296 = 1333 GAIN


BAR pivots FOR TODAY
11am
1pm
3pm


That minor dip as shown on the EKG could occur at 3pm thus allowing a higher close
Jay

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -JULY 19th Closing UPDATE

ONCE THAT LONG TREND LINE BREAKS< WE WILL KNOW THE BULL TREND IS OVER 
 And IT could come as soon as September-
ITS VERY EASY TO SEE THE H&D BUILDING

Best Wishes
Jay
note that VPN Members got this graph on Sunday

PC ratios that were 80% Bullish yesterday
ARE NOW
80% Bearish
and Jaywiz index = .29 very bearish

However, there should be one heck of a recovery from the AM lows
topping off on THSDAY AM

ITS A CHOPPY WEEK WITH WILD GYRATIONS
Typical of a triangle building within a SHORT TIME PERIOD & Small price range
Everything gets magnified immensley

Tomrrow is 55 tr days May 2nd , so we should see another high, but it wont be a major turn
More Later
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -JULY 19th morning update

1326 looks possible for 2;30 to 3pm today




The SPX made it to 1320 at 11am, and backed off to 1314 at noon
that low at noon could be labeled as [iv], thus [v] is still out there between 2:30 to 3pm today

After a mid afternoon high today, the POWER DATA index shows a SHARP drop
into tomrrow AM making a low between 10:00 to 11:00am

From there , a strong recovery could get right back to 1326 at close or open on Thsday

1356-1296= 60 pts
60X 50% = 30 + 1296= 1326
60X62% = 37+ 1296= 1333


THe low at 1296 closed out in 5 waves from 1356 on July7th
IS that the WHOLE wave 4 correction?
Do they run now to 1381 or is there too much uncertainty until the debt ceiling problem is resolved?
IF so, then the 4th wave continues in very choppy fashion until the end of the month.

more later
Jay