Thursday, June 18, 2009

A Range


It would appear we have a range setup between 920 and 885 for now
& will remain until the lower end is resolved
which may not happen till tomrrow at the earliest

the POWER index remains on a decline thru Friday
And the Propens index shows a similarity to the 16th which opened higher
and turned down at 11am

SO whats the game plan
Futures now point to a moderately higher open

I will still sell some puts at 10am if a low is offered
if not at 10am then at least at the 90bar low at 11;30
Either or situation
And
will consider re entering additional shorts at 3pm

Ian's low on 18th or 19th is looking now IMO, at the 19th
I'll worry abut the 25th-26th NEXT week

A little heads up for Monday - PRELIM astro report
there is a Very positive Mars 120 Saturn at 10:45am
but the new moon seems to be a drag as it also is clustered
with a venus 135 pluto & Sun 180 Pluto
SO, and UP start on Monday should give way to selling in the afternoon

As far as the wave count -- expecting a 5-3-5 correction form the 956 high to 885
It looks like we got 5 waves down from the high as per Ravi, and I agree
it also looks like we may have gotten,
or in the process of completing an ABC rebound off spx904

From yesterdays high at 1;45pm we might have gotten 5 waves down = wave 1
which gives them room for wave 2 UP today finishing at 3pm

heading down into tomrrow for a possible low Friday, and or Monday on the new moon

Ive given up on the idea of a huge rebound for now until the eclipse low of July6th
thru the eclipse high of July22nd

more later
Jay

36 comments:

  1. Anonymous9:33 AM

    I believe "flashfusion" has today the 18th marked as a turn. He's been pretty good there.

    Alfred

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  2. Anonymous9:48 AM

    Hi Jay.

    I covered all shorts and I'm buying a small long position now.

    thanks

    Kathy

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  3. might wait out the 11:30 cycle at 90 bars???

    IMO< There is a greater potential to drop to 885 tomrrow than up to 920 today

    Tuesday only got + 33 dow at 10am

    Jay

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  4. Mon, Tue and Wed of the week, if they are low, then Fri closes lower, thats my observation.

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  5. OK, Low at open, then got right to 920 at 10:15am- good trade kathy

    That was the "C" wave of the ABC
    rebound off the low of 904 yesterday at @ 11am

    We'll see now how long this lasts before starting its descent into the 2nd 5 waves making the low most likely tomrrow

    Friday
    156bars @ 10;30am
    180@ 12;30
    204b@ 2:30
    228@ 4:30 might get truncated at 220b @4pm

    Jay

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  6. Jay:

    (c) not done yet. here is a speculative path,we in c of (c):

    (a) 903.78 918.44 14.66
    (b) 918.44 907.94 -10.5
    a of (c) 907.94 920.37
    b of (c) 920.37 915.45
    c of (c) 915.45 927.88

    Ravi

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  7. Ravi
    might finish (C) by 2pm today??
    propens index drops after thru open tomrow ??

    Jay

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  8. Anonymous11:39 AM

    jay don't know how do you do this. Right on time at 11:30 it started downward. thanks for your help

    sam

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  9. Anonymous11:49 AM

    I took profits

    Kathy

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  10. Jay:

    b of (c) may be turning into a triangle. That should eat enough time to get (C) done around 2 pm or 3 pm.

    Ravi

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  11. at 11:46 right on the Moon 150 saturn, we got down to +50 on the dow & 916.02 on the spx

    There is a Moon 120 Pluto at 2pm exactly and after that it should start to slide lower

    Ravi, I see where the 928 comes from -its the high Tuesday at 11am = the top of wave 4 in the previous decline which ended on Wed AM at 11am

    Jay

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  12. Sam

    the 11;46 low was an easy call
    combined the bars with astro

    Next selling opp is still looking like 2pm a high as I just wrote to Ravi

    This is excellent dialouge between
    traders

    Jay

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  13. FYI
    activity index did take a little drop from 166 to 133 just before 11:30 and is now back up to 166

    Will let you know if it goes higher.

    I think 2pm is the high regardless
    even if SPX doesnt get to 928, or it might just eke it out to 3pm but I think I doubt that

    Jay

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  14. Anonymous12:52 PM

    hi all,just a word of caution.my itd delta solution has tomorrow/monday as a high with the 25thish next week as a low,making this a b wave in an abc correction with new highs to come in the indices.not saying im right or wrong just my pennys worth.

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  15. new target

    a=c at 929.45

    (a) = (c) at 931.68

    50% retrace drop from 956.23=930.00

    Ravi

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  16. and 923.82= 38.2% retrace for an undershoot that stop at parallel channel based on joining yesterdays low and today

    Ravi

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  17. Jay:

    We are out of the (b) triangle, so 2 pm looks like doable for a top.

    Ravi

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  18. Anonymous1:07 PM

    Ravi and Jay what's your S and P top for today?? Than a drop Thanks Eric

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  19. 1pm Which is one the DAILY hourly turns is hitting a high at 920.25.

    eke'ing out another 3pts is very possible for sure by 2pm

    WOW - Ive been waiting for this.
    Activity index JUST TOOK A DIVE AT 1pm- about 30 min to 1 hour delay
    its now at 66, where it started the day

    Tomorrow we hve
    150bars at 10am
    but the day is busy with more bar cycles all day as posted b4
    last one is at 4pm @ 220bars, a bit truncated for 228

    I see MONDAY with HUGE OPENING RALLy till 11am on the Mars120 saturn aspect
    Another shorting opp, unless yuo buy Friday's close

    Good deal the SPX just jumped to
    921.75 and seems determined to make the peak- watch Ravi's
    923.82 - should be ciming up very soon
    Jay
    ITS NOW 1;11pm

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  20. Could we be done at 1:09? we just made a very small five wave down.

    Ravi

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  21. Yes I saw that, but Im holding out another few minutes
    and here it comes at 1;30 , maybe to 1;45 at the most

    Jay
    its 1;25

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  22. Damn
    activity index just jumped up again to 133
    not as high as before as yet.
    but hasnt had the effect of the previous dip yet.

    They are keeping me glued today

    I did add some shorts at spx 921+

    Jay

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  23. Anonymous1:46 PM

    Like Jay, I am on high alert to go short whether that's today or tomorrow. I sold a little too early today but that's the breaks. I take what I can get and I'm happy.

    thanks guys

    Kathy

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  24. Top of the 2 day channel now at 38.2% retrace 923.82. double target.

    Ravi

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  25. Anonymous2:26 PM

    I did not get your comment. do you mean we have a double top or that your are looking for 923 to make a DT? Thanks
    I bought some puts @ 920. risk was minimum
    sam

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  26. Sam:

    What I meant was that two methods were giving the same top or resistance that that time.

    Ravi

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  27. What stopped spx below 923 was the line joining June 11 and June 12 tops in the intra-day chart. that line is my stop loss on SPY short.

    Ravi

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  28. Anonymous2:38 PM

    i think we may see new highs in the last hour the way this tape looks.

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  29. Anonymous2:49 PM

    Jay Can you updated us on tomm the opening and rest of the day anything changed?? Thanks Eric

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  30. Anonymous3:10 PM

    Jay how is the activity index for the rest of the hour?
    sam

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  31. HI Sam
    Activity index is at 100
    Not high and not low
    Eric
    I will update when theres something more to bring to our attention

    Jay

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  32. OK, ACTIVITY INDEX JUST DROPPED TO 66
    should effect the close
    or
    Last 15 min
    Its now 3;28pm

    Jay

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  33. Anonymous3:51 PM

    jay you are magician. right on time.

    how does tomorrow look like. hold the shorts tonight or not is the question?

    sam

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  34. RIMM reports at 4pm
    SO WHAT??

    TOmrrow AM has negative connotations
    TILL 10am
    then Up till 1:333
    lower close possible, but I think the 150bar cycle at 10am will be best bet.
    I might sell some at close today
    to get some cash
    Want to buy the close tomrrow
    BIG monday open
    Jay

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  35. Anonymous3:58 PM

    Thanks Jay

    sam

    ReplyDelete
  36. Anonymous4:14 PM

    RIM was clobbered Ah. down $3+.

    should gap down nicely

    sam

    ReplyDelete