The right MATH is:
from Ravi
HIGH 927.09 to LOW @ 888.86 -38.23
21.4% = 897.04 + 8.18
38.2% = 903.46 + 14.60
50.0% = 907.98 + 19.12 from close at 895 = 12pts = dow about + 100
61.8% = 912.49 + 23.63 from close @ 895 = 17 pts = dow about +136
78.6% = 918.91 + 30.05 from close @ 895 = 24pts = dow about + 192
FROM Ravi
Does your cycle/astro work allow for a sharp move towards 903 ish in th AM followed by a drop below 900 and then a move towards 909 at 2:15 or so tomorrow after Fed speak? If so, 907-909 can be another back up the trucjk and short entry after 2:10 announcement.
Awaiting your bar cycle /fibo answer unadultarated by my wave count and fibo targets.
Thanks,
Ravi
Fantastic -Your analysis need only be superceded by mkt action
Other comments are good also, but dont be afraid to EDIT and cut them short
remember that SOMETIMES ---LESS IS MORE !!
The ACTIVITY INDEX IS ROMPING up now at 266 as I write this at 9am
AND we see the SPOOS Up 8.10
THe POWER index lays out the next 2days like this
UP today , then Fizzle - FOMC, at 2;15 maybe --
we will need to watch FIBO levels YOU laid out very carefully at that time juncture and or 1pm
TOMORROW, the POWER index has the SAME reading
Up till Mid day, then fizzle
this lead to a LOWER open on friday
and continues LOWER on Monday
KISS Elliott means a 3 wave rally that GOES no where today and TOMRROW
but lets watch the FIBO levels
most likley
50% = spx 907 ** easy target for today + 100 dow
61.8% = spx 912 ** most likely to succeed tomrrow
78.6% = spx 918 ** this might be a stretch
THEn the NEXT 5 wave decline STARTING from Tomrows MIDDAY high
I think that makes it very clear
more later
Its now 9:15am
Jay
Activity index opens at 300
ReplyDeletebut drops to 166 shortly after
I'm guessing the FIRST rally hits its high note at 9:45, as we do have a 126 b cycle low due at 10am
lets see what spx level we get at that time.
This does NOT rule out another SURGE later in the day and of course another fizzle
Jay
Right NOW at 903.19
ReplyDeleteFirst level at 9:50am might have been achieved - no higher still after 9:45
activity dropped some more to
to 100, but there is a 30 min to 1 hr delay
________________________
trading CHOICES to make
should I short here @ 904 or not??
150bars at noon
could take it all away??
and more??
180bars @ 2:30
Fed = non event??
Or should I WAIT out the CLOSE
to catch tomrrows UP move to Mid day
????????????????
10am high now at 904.19
could make it to 11am HIGH and Hourly TURN
Close today has moon 150 Pluto at 4pm which has a negative reading
Jay
THE BEST SHORT WILL BE OFF TOMRROW's MID DAY HIGH leading to a LOW on Monday from 11;30 to noon
@ 120 to 126bars
Scaled first short. one sixteenth of max position.
ReplyDeleteRavi
NOW 10;15 at 907.13 high
ReplyDeletewhich is very near the second level
Could be a good place to get short??
for NOON low as per activity & 150 bars
NOT A LOWER LOW, however,
I think I will buy long today's close today if OFF the highs or back near the open
and short the high tomrrow
Jay
Thanks Jay, Ravi
ReplyDeletegood game plan
sam
Something doesn't seem right about this rally if correction is ongoing. This feels like a bear-ending correction-over rally to me. Could Ian be right aboutt date for low yesterday?
ReplyDeletemlb
See what spx level 11am brings
ReplyDeleteshould sell off from that HOURLY turn to 150bars at noon
Im thinking 11am high to low close
or scalp at noon
I have errands to run, and will be happy to be OUT
power index shows that tomrrows OPEN should be even BETTER than today
Jay
Scaled in another one sixteenth. Now one eighth short.
ReplyDeleteRavi
Ian had 18-19low'
ReplyDeleteAND 25-26 low'
He's GOOD, but not GOD
Low was 23rd at 11am
FOLLOW the BOUNCING BALL RIGHT HERE
on JAYWIZ blog
STOP LOOKING ELSEWHERE
WEve got what it takes
Jay
mlb;
ReplyDeletetoday's move does have impulsive look about it. it can be end of 3-3-5 from yesterday's low.
On the SPY chart that includes after hours, we just hit the top of the channel. A higher hi opens up the possibility of yesterday being a more important low as in A, B, C completed. On cash chart, channel top is around 910.
Ravi
channel on cash chart more like 912.
ReplyDeleteIf 912.46 exceeded later, I may get out on next down.
Ravi
Well Ian sure acts like he's god and that his "Master" Cycle is god. haha.
ReplyDeleteok thanks Jay and Ravi.
mlb
10:45, i bot a small short position
ReplyDeleteApproaching the 11am TURN
expecting NOON at 150bars to be a LOW
Could take away the entire gain
Impulsive wave??
shouldnt be
ITS Against the trend
and should work out to 3 waves into tomrrows high, but COULD LOOK like 5 waves from low to high
We had 5 wave DOWN from
June 11to 17
3 waves Up
then 5 more down from 927 to 889
NOW we should get 3 waves UP
OK, its NOW 10:54am and they are
NOW at 910.59
I may have been a few minutes early
can never tell if 10:45 11am will be the high
might have to add more shorts?
Jay
Ravi/Jay
ReplyDeleteanother possibilty is that market is in process of creating a "W" bottom. I've seen this pattern before. 2-3 days of spurt followed by 2-3 days of collapse to lower low followed by 2-3 days of consolidation and then it takes off.
mlb
In 3/16. May take profit on a part if move down.
ReplyDeleteRavi
mlb:
ReplyDeleteW bottom and take of would imply that A, B , C was completed at 889, which is still the alternate scenario. The first up will be five wave (i), retest would be a deep corrective (ii) and then impulsive (iii). Wave formation of (ii) would be the clue.
Ravi
12:30 is 156bars which seems to be in play
ReplyDeleteactivity level has been at 100 for an hour, but is moving higher , now at 200 at 12;20pm
Jay
Out at no loss. Stepping back for better entry and clarity.
ReplyDeleteRavi
Ok, Im out
ReplyDeletehave to leave for a while
Jay
Taking a closer look. On one minute bar chart, we did have the flatest 5 wave impulse I ever saw, but it looks like an a,b,c on 15 minute intraday chart.
ReplyDeleteIf Fed was not due at 2:15, I would have taken chance with stop loss at today hi.
Ravi
On daily chart, just noticed that the top joining 956.23 hi and 927.09 secondary hi is at exactly 912.52 today almost the same as 61.8% retrace at 912.46 or so.
ReplyDeleteSo a higher hi to that level may be a good short entry, as completion of 3,3, 5 corrective wave. Only problem is the Fed timing. If this scenario is right, tomorrow's hi that Jay is expecting would be lower hi but perhaps a safer entry.
Ravi
Possible C wave from yesterday 3:11 pm:
ReplyDeletei 892.55 897.72 5.17
ii 897.72 894.55 -3.17 -61.3%
iii 894.55 910.85 16.3
iv so far 910.85 905.7 -5.15 -31.6%
v 905.70 910.87 5.17
v alt 905.70 914.07 8.37 1.618
So just a tad above 910.85 to 912.50 possible entry.
Ravi
Thanks jay and ravi.
ReplyDeletei too may wait for tomorrow's safe entry for shorts.
sam
The five wave down on Dow is clearer than SPX.
ReplyDeleteSo, if we get 3 waves up, non impulsive, after Fed, that can work without a new hi.
Jay,
ReplyDeleteU were right, FOMC seems non event
re-entered 1/16 short
ReplyDeleteAs i had speculated earlier, FOMC response represents the prevailing trend. it seems that MM are saying it is down. and hence the down response.
ReplyDeletewill get in the shorts at tomorrow' high.
sam
or could it be that this down is B and tomorrow up leg C to 915 and then down? ravi jay?
ReplyDeletesam
We are likely in i of iii of (iii), will be confirmed when DJI breaks yesterday's low which we already came within 3 points.
ReplyDeletedoes that mean a bounce to 50% 904-906 under ii of (iii)? and then (iii of iiii to 875? or lower.
ReplyDeletesam
Dow confirms we are in iii of (iii. Safe to enter tomorrow's secondary hi, if corrective, with a stop no higher than today's hi
ReplyDeleteRavi
Entry tomorrow 901 to 905 range??
ReplyDeletei 910.85 905.70 -5.15
ii 905.7 908.65 2.95 -57.3%
iii ? 908.65 896.42 -12.23
iv?? 896.42 901.09 4.67 38.2%
v ?? 901.09 895.94 -5.15
(i) ??? 910.85 895.94 -14.91
(ii)????
38.2% 895.94 901.64 5.69
61.8% 895.94 905.16 9.21
Ravi
I got in at at 902.5. you think this i.e. iii is over fo the day at 896? or you see more down possibilities?
ReplyDeletesam
Shoot 901 is right there. so iv is alomst done. so we may see today LOD at 895? and then tomorrow up move per Jay -- 5 waves or 3 waves?
ReplyDeletesam
Sam:
ReplyDeleteSee my 3:19 pm posting , I expected a slightly lower low on v. It will make the 5 down impulse clear. Otherwise some confusion.
Ravi
Is this still a iv top now? or could it be abc thing. I never understood thorughlly Ew so please do not mind asking questions. thanks ravi and jay
ReplyDeletesam
Sam:
ReplyDeleteUntil 896.42 is broken, we are likely in iv as showed in 3:19 pm posting. Only by going below 896.42, without going above 905.70 first, can we be sure that it was impulsive 5. 905.7 is where i ended as I show.
Just counting 5 waves does not make it impulse. iv can not go into the territory of i, if iv goes to the territory of i before finishing 5 waves; a different counting such as a,b c may apply . Only exception to this rule is in a diagonal fifth at the end of a major move.
So, a slightly lower opening tomorrow will bring clarity to a impulsive 5 being there as beginning of possible journey towards 945 as was discussed earlier. If so, short on a,b,c corrective from such low will be a safe entry with a stop at today's high at most. IF.
Ravi
you mean 845 and not 945 right ravi?
ReplyDeletesam
Cash SPX made a low cents low so far today of 866.27, which is lower than 896.42 low of 3PM yesterday. So there we have a five way down in cash SPX.
ReplyDeleteSo cash SPX says a hi today below 910, and the chart including pre and post mkt activity says a hi just above 910. Take your pick.
If all this is part of ii of iii of (iii), then it won't matter where you enter. The shape of the upmove should give a clue along with Jay's cycle/astro input.
Ravi