Looks like the drop to 943.22 on Tuesday completed the shallowest of (iv); and we have been doing a diagonal 5th since then having completed or close to have completed the fourth within that. (The idea of of fourth wave triangle, with 970ish target,, died one we made higher hi today)
This would imply that we go up to 11, NOT DOWN, tomorrow AM to 960-962 area to complete the upmove from 869. This is more in line with your earlier timing work of a top tomorrow 11ish , if I recollect it right.
.
That would be 91-93 points up. Fibo will then be 35, 45, 55 points down to 927, 917, 907 area. I do not see 970.
My gut says we may not get below 927. Let us see.
Ravi
________________________________________________________
from Jaywiz
Propensity index shows a MAJOR DROP either late today or ALL day tomorrow
spx 960 might be on the table, but it matters NOT as the NEXT BIG move is DOWN
Closing out longs today would be a very good idea ,IMO
WELL now, Just got a confirmation from some SHMUCK on Wall street at 9:25 claiming the
SPX is NOW GOING TO 1000 -- HMMMFF
As previously posted SEVERAL times
TURN happens on the 23rd
2+3 = 5 = numerology = CHANGE
I will ADD more shorts today on ANY RALLY to 9:45 this AM
and will PLAN to SELL on or b4 Friday at 4pm
MONDAY as previously reported
Leisurely day & Sublime - probably biased UP
Tuesday is going to be the MOST IMPORTANT day of August and should be the BULK of the LOSS
WEd is the 13 day cycle low at 10;30 which might be the PIVOT low, but could languish all day at the lows
RALLY on 30th to Augst 7th -10th
As of today, 11am is still to be considered for a low
150bars & Merc 135 uranaus
180bars at 1:30 could also offer a pivot low
HOD looks posssible at 3pm with hourly & moon 180 Jupiter
more later
Jay
Looks LIKE Ravi gets 961 by 10am
ReplyDeleteJay
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ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteHUK
ReplyDeleteWhat is YOUR problem
IVE added MORE SHORTS at 950am, and again at 10am after the announcement
YOU NEED TO HAVE reserves to bring in at times like this
SPX got to 962.28
DOW has NOT hit 9000
THE REWARDS for bears will follow very soon
Jay
added short ETF SDS at 10:01 AM
ReplyDeleteForget about any decline happening this week. It will happen starting late next week. We just started a new cycle and this baby will run for a while.
ReplyDeletett
REPEAT
ReplyDeleteDONT GET SUCKED in
DONT FOLLOW THE CROWD
EXPECT SUDDEN CHANGES
Jay
BEFORE discovering my indexes, I would ALSO get F________
ReplyDeleteBUT NOW I HAVE A mkt MAP, which I do try to offer here- but its UP to you to see it or not
Joseph- ARe you closing out LONgS this AM? - good work
SAM
IM STILL adding more SHORTS on every rally this AM
\
REWARDS later today and tomrrow- even bigger
Jay
Thanks Jay, I am short
ReplyDeleteJay,Ravi and others,
ReplyDeleteSomeone posted this one from 2007, and see market down soon. Does this align with your calls
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_RHwzqq5yGy0/SmhwtbJJ5II/AAAAAAAAAls/-wTxDublVFo/s1600-h/spxju.jpg
Not sure how you see a major drop later today w/ this kind of breadth. We shall see.
ReplyDeletex
Jay:
ReplyDeleteEnding diagonal is out. What we are in is iii of (v). So there would be one more down and up move before this is over.
ravi
huk.
ReplyDeleteDon't feel so bad. Those idiots at Breakpointtrades.com had everyone leaning bearish today with their amateur EW bias charting. They probably bet against their own subscribers as most newsletter writers do.
caley
IF 11am hourly & Merc 150 Uranus does provide the HOD, the 156 bars at 11;30 & MOST especially 180bars at 1;30 should show its tru bear colors
ReplyDeleteJan 6th, the DOW ran UP to 9175 intraday high, closed at 9015
7 days later the dow had lost 1200 pts intraday low at 7949, closed at 8212
IMO< We are at a similar turn time
Flash still has 24th.
Jay
oh dear! doesnt look like an 11 oclock low from here,unfortunately short from last night,just have to hope they dont take it up so high today that i dont even reach break-even next week without dangerously adding.not looking like sliding yet and 3pm is a long way away from here lol. if we are still going up into tomorrow which i doubt,something very different may be happening and time to cut positions.but as of now it certainly looks and feels like a blow off top.
ReplyDeleteIm NOW 80% short
ReplyDeleteJay
I too added shorts
ReplyDeleteWe need to LEARN to SCALE TRADE
ReplyDeletewhich means ADDING MORE against the direction until it turns our way
ITS also works at LOWS - buying as teh mkt makes lower and lower lows such as July6th -7th & 8th
How quickly we forget what I showed you then
SPX to 970 as per teh CHARTS I posted
now at 971.77
some one on my yahoo group posted 972.00
9+7+2 = 18 = 9 = AN ENDING
11am as an HOURLY PROVIDES A TURN
and since it coincided with a Merc semisquare, I projected a LOW for the day, but it is OBVIOUS TO ME, NOW< its GOING TO be an HOD
The UNSTABLE reading for that aspect should occur AFTER its transit which is RIGHT NOW AT 11am as I write this.
Jay
Another push up! They are either setting us up for a crash, or this is 1999 all over again.
ReplyDeleteThis is a STRAIGHT UP day today. You can look at shorting near end-of-day or Friday at open.....and then we may still rally higher after the bottom on late Friday early Monday. Then you can think about shorting for more than 1 day.
ReplyDeletejmo
tt
Jay I doubt numerology could work for hourly or daily readings. If we are at 973 that means 1, another begining.
ReplyDeleteI do play with numbers in concord with fibonacci which sometimes works but I think pure technicals in combi with astrological aspects should be a better analysis.
pk
Jay,
ReplyDeleteAny update on the index readings
Matt Frailey and Steve Nelson of breakpointtrades.com are just another couple of con-artists that never really tell you when to buy or sell. Always ambiguous so as not to be accountable. Total BS. Lots of charts but you don't learn a thing and I doubt anyone on their subscrition list with a few exceptions, makes any money. Their blog is filled with shills too.
ReplyDeleteJay is much better in that regard. There is NO ambiguoity with Jay.
Charlie
oh and mat and steve make good coin, at least 100000 grand a month from their sucker subscribers to boot. Who needs to trade successfully with that monthly income?
ReplyDeletecharlie
Well Jay, you did it again. You warned us of the 970 price for today.
ReplyDeleteI started to sell my long positions
at 963 when I remembered that 96.10 on the SPY was the bear limit which pulled the plug and shorts were covered. I ended up selling over have of my longs and decided to keep the remainder to hedge my shorts which are about 60% complete. Thanks for your great calls and confidence you have in your trading advice.
Craig
Jay/Ravi, I am truly impressed, all I can say is thanks on behalf of my mother and father who have been screwed by a Mutual fund company and of course my family. I will sell my longs today, lets see if we re-trace into Aug....
ReplyDeleteToday seems like a trend day. Given that we should close near the highs.
ReplyDeleteSOME of You see a rally and get despondent
ReplyDeleteothers sell their longs & get some shorts
others scale trade and add more shorts on the rally
others get scared Sh--
and BAIL out of shorts
thats what the DEALERS want you to do.
These are all kinds of different traders, and thats what makes it all work.
Its NOW 10:30 and they are still holding at higher levels
MACD on 1day 1 min topped at 10;30
OBV topped at noon
Ult osc is waning and topped at 11;15
Activity index is still holding at
266, up from 200 earlier today and holding that level since 11am
JUST ticked down one notch to 233
as I write this. 12;25
Im going to ADD more shorts after I close this comment and will be 85% short
Jay
thanks Craig & Joseph
ReplyDeleteGlad to see there are real traders here
PLEASE help me obtain more members
Its GOOD FOR MY EGO
and to prove to my family that I know what Im doing.
I dont discuss $$ with family as it turns out they interpret what I should do with it or try to tell me about the mkt
GRRRR.
thanks again
Jay
Jay your calls have been prefect. No one can complain. Now is the time to get into shorts. Chankya's chart you had posted called for 7/23 top as secondary high -- tight on spot. Yur call 970 also was good.
ReplyDeleteLike you said, one cannot give up.
The down leg should produce atleast 940 by 8/01.
Do you still expect a crash as mentioned in Chankya' chart/
Thanks jay and ravi
Bot some sds at 48.32 and spx puts.
sam
It would freak out the masses were we to chop around for a week or 2 and head higher into mid Aug.
ReplyDeleteC
Jay,
ReplyDeleteDoes the end of day look like more upside or down from here.
short ES 973 .. will short more at ES 977
ReplyDeleteJay:
ReplyDeleteWhat are your indicators saying at this point?
Ravi
jay I' m new here but I want to tell you I think you know the market very well. this is what comes out from the overall picture of your posts. Just one thing i would add............as I do swing trades of stocks, could you post your thoughts about intermediate trends more often ? The second thing that i would ask you is to be the more simple you can with language as i think many following you might be not american or english and so the more simple the better. In case you set up a paid site, let me know.
ReplyDeleteGiorgio.....North-Eastern italy
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteJay,
ReplyDeleteAny updates for us.
hey a papa-giorgio ! welcome to las vegas.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we are going to get a buy signal today under Dow Theory with DJI and DJT both making new post March highs on closing basis.
ReplyDeleteRavi
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ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteHuge GAP-UP tomorrow!
ReplyDeletetlc
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ReplyDeleteFrom now on, I follow
ReplyDeleteDa Chief
Chris
The Bull is on. Anyone shorting Obama and GoldmanSachs will get killed. You might as well enjoy the ride instead of getting run over by the locomotive.
ReplyDeletemark
atilla capitulates at 980. Then the
ReplyDeletedecline begins.
in the after market we are 7.5 points spx below close
ReplyDeleteI'm sick of this. I give up. Trading is impossible. You get on a streak and give it all back again and more. Time to go back to living on the street and visiting the soup kitchen for meals. My account has been drained. I'm broke thanks to the market. I hope Goldman spends my money well because I sure as heck couldn't do anything with it. I hate myself now. I'm worthless. Need to buy a gun now and one bullet. Thanks 'life". You win. You beat me up good. BBye, bye everyone. It's been nice knowing you.
ReplyDeletecurtis lemmler
MSFT, BRCM, AMZN all down AH as they are the major ones besides GOOG and AAPL.
ReplyDeleteI'm capitulating now. The bear is dead for now.
ReplyDeleteHa ragione buforoboi. Che citta' di merda Milano anche se e' la mia citta'. Facciamo pena.
ReplyDeletenot cool to impersonate
ReplyDeletebuforoby eres un cerdo
ReplyDeletecabron no hables italiano aqui nadie te entiende.
DELETE all comments in italian.
Jay
ReplyDeletePlease update us if anything has changed.
to the anonimous who signed as........... cabron. They were just two lines written in italian to answer to an idiotic observation. This blog is in english and anyone here knows that. Two lines in another language on a single day, don' t change it. My congrats to Jay, impressive his calls.
ReplyDeleteAtilla lately is laughable. He's been short since march..........that says it all.
ReplyDeleteYou mean you can be 'long' the market?? Then I'm buying now.
ReplyDeletenicely done with the 3 oclock turn jay,a matter of minutes out.im not expecting too much downside tomorrow,fridays rarely turn sharply if the trend has been one way all week.just browsing through my notes as well as my delta turn centred for the 28th july,we have a "minor" bradley turn on the 31st.hopefully we'll get a correction for the best part of the week at least.
ReplyDeleteJay:
ReplyDeleteThe ending diagonal fifth scenario was dead once we went above 961 by too much and for too long.
So, what does the EWI count look like now. There are two scenarios, depending on how one reads the elusive shallow (iv)
If (iv) ended at 943.22, then we did a iii of (v) today, aftermarket is iv of (v) and we have a v of (v) ending tomorrow just over 979.42 hi of today to end A up and start B down.
However, it is now possible to count a more extended (iv), which ended at 951.87 low late Wednesday 22nd. In that case, the move from there to today's hi 979.42 was all of (v). In which case we are done with A.
See Dan eric's chart
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SmjWOeCy4LI/AAAAAAAABJ0/8XtVbdwmcV4/s1600-h/spx10.png
Shows two targets for A top . Around 890 under the first scenario; and already done under the second scenario.
I prefer the second scenario, because the after market has a five wave drop.
The two scenarios are not too different with one day difference in top. I prefer the second count, only because the after hour drop has created a five way down.
The real question is how deep a retrace to expect. Too early to tell. Under the second scenario, here are the retracement levels:
869.32 979.42 +110.10
38.2% 937.36
50.0% 924.37
61.8% 911.38
So the likely retrace is 937.36 to 911.38 range. With 950 ish resistent becoming support now, a even shallower retrace can not be ruled out. The waves down will give us a clue to the downside target. Let us hope they are clearer than the reading on (iv) on way up. !!
Ravi