The problem is that if we include after market iii is smaller than both i and v; which invalidates the count as an 5 wave impulse. That means that we were still working on iii of (v)that started at 972.18.
So, there may be a bit left on the (v) of A to work on early Monday with a target of 987 to 993 where v of (v) = 1.382 to 1.618 of i of (v).
The bigger question is how shallow or deep the B retrace would be. There is potential support at the old 956 top of June 11, which may even prevent a 38.2% retrace.
Only a break of 965.95 will confirm that B is in progress.
Ravi
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Ravi,
I'M LOOKING FORWARD at August 10th for possible wave 5 of "A"
IF so then, we can have a more extended decline into LATE SPT for the REAL wave"B'
Oct 10th then looks most prominent for the FINAL wave "C" - 2 top
This is the PICTURE I am getting from the ROAD MAP provided by NATURAL ENERGY
FROM Oct10th we get another MORE EXTENDED DECLINE to APRIL 2010
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THE ABOVE commentary means
IMO<> wv iii of "A"
and next week should = wave iv of "A"
thus the forecast as above
Thanks for the great comments - very constructive - and informative
more later
Jay
NOTE
ReplyDeleteYou don't need to comment on my long term forecast- it wont help us for this week;
BUT I just wanted to make the point to put next week INTO the longer term perspective
Jay
Jay:
ReplyDeleteForgetting about the EW count, is this what you see?
- A down wave next week
- Followed by a higher hi into Monday 10th
What is your timing for stating and ending of the down move irrespective of the wave count? You had most recently mentioned CIT (or this top on Monday) and end of down move in a rolling bottom Wednesday through Friday of the same week. Is that your latest thinking on timing? Do you have a better handle on when on Monday to look for HoD and CIT? what is your latest estimate on timing of the end of downmove that you are now calling (iv)?
As you point out, that kind of scenario can possibly fit into next down being (iv) of A. This alternative count will get around the problem of (iv) being too small as counted by Dan Eric, Kenny and EWI and others. Question is, if there is a reasonable way to count the move from 872.81 low of July 10th as five waves of (iii) ending say Monday. I will take a look at that idea. If so, the lower order iv of such (iii) can be reasonable target.
Ravi
Ok Ravi
ReplyDeleteIts Sunday eve at 6pm
So far weve got:
power index shows probably gap down open, recovery to mid day and lower close, leading to a down day ALL OF Tuesday
the rest of the week for that index is NOT YET in focus
Propens index incomplete for Monday, but so far confirms a potentially lower open, and recovery- same as above power index- close is not in focus yet.
Astro also would agree with above for monday and Tuesday Astro has potential crash type day
Intraday low still setup for the 29th at 10:30 am, but astro indicates a lower low into Friday
regardless of the 13 day cycle
Astro keeps teh pressure on both Thsday & friday
Thsday =
Merc 180 Jupiter , but b4 open
Merc # jptr @ 6pm after close
Reading =
good news is not so good
2 steps + and one back
dont be gullible
dont believe rosy projections
IT sounds to me like a good open, but poor ending to be confirmed by power and propens indexes later in the week.
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Friday
Merc 180 Npte at 4am
Merc 135 Uaranus at 2pm
reading =
Expect difficult encounters
poor communications
Saturday
Multiple hard aspects
effects on Friday
Deception
Intense demands
intense power conflicts
MONDAY Aug 3rd= BIG Business GETS THE GREEN LIGHT >>>>>
IMO< this means a BIG REBOUND as also indicated by the natural energy chart
More later
Jay
Jay,
ReplyDeleteTo my understanding so far is close shorts end of Friday as this is a negative week, also as indicated by the cycle chart.
hey Reza I think you are right. Jay feels and concluded that next week is weaker possibly mostly till Fri.
ReplyDeleteWe continue the rally on early Aug first week for about 10 days and then a pullback.
pk
As predicted
ReplyDeleteFutures are showing a lower open at 9am, but there are 2 positive lunar aspects leading up to & near 11am the hourly TURN
SO, any recovery this AM after the open with new home sales reporting at 10am should be ONE OF THE BEST SELLING OPPS of the summer
BUT ITS good FOR THIS WEEK ONLY
August is showing bullish potential right from the 3rd and ending on the 17th where a more important TURN down is waiting
Aug 17th might end up getting labelled as the REAL top of wave "C" - 2
more later
Jay
I am still short from last week... holding my SRS ERic
ReplyDeletelowering target to 985
ReplyDeleteravi
jay,that aug 17th "top" ties in a lot better with my own work,looking at the weekly charts,the rising bullish wedge that has kept this move in check so far,has a target by next month of around 1020ish,but allowing for a good blow off top out of it and reversal as is usual with end of moves,im thinking somewhere around 1068. old resistance and some fib confluence in the area.all conjecture at this point though.danny.
ReplyDeleteabove should have said "bearish rising wedge".
ReplyDeleteWe got a new high 10:02 in DOW/SPX, now going lower and if that continue we will get a nice reversal bar today.
ReplyDeletea2
SUCKERS were HOLDING their breath all weekend and coudn't wait to BUY the OPEN == DUMB MONEY
ReplyDeleteAmazing - is never stops amazing me how this happens
Jay
My game plan it still to cover my shorts on Wed at 10:30am which is the 13 day cycle
ReplyDeletethe last occurrence was JULY10th at 10:30 am and the dow hit the LOD = Dow was down 55 that day at 8128 which was higher than the low on the 8th at 8087, thus the setup for the rally that followed
I want to be mentally READY to BUY CALLS on Friday at or near the close-
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trading CONCEPTS
After the 13 day cycle low, which should mark an Elliott 'a' wave; the mkt should rally for most of the day and part of the next day thus making the 'b' wave high
-- once that rebound is peaked, the 'c' wave low should end at or near the 13day cycle or even above it as the July8th to 10th episode above.
___________________________
Jay
Thanks jay for the update. it fits Chankya's chart you had posted earlier. Do you still see a crash of some magnitude around august 9 to august 20 when CVhankaya gives a super buy signal? Or those dates have shifted?
ReplyDeletesam
Sam, YOU really need to read teh comments b4 asking new questions
ReplyDeleteAUGUST High postponed till 17th
ASTRO VIEW is:
Potential serious decline from 17th to 27th
I'll have better data after first week in August- going away to CAPE COD to visit my 3 grandchildren; havnet seen them in 4 years- need to get my share of hugs.[ggg]
more later
Jay
Just to JOG your memory
ReplyDeleteThe READING for today was/is
EXPECT A Leisurely day- sublime
TOMRROW' READING
UNSTABLE
opposite of Yesterday
run for cover& watch valuables
WEd's reading
Keep secrets
dont follow the crowd
bide your time
GOOD NEWS is not so good
MY WED interpretation
DONT follow the CROWD lower as we get the 13 day low at 10;30 to 11am.
BUT good news comes with a rally after the AM low, but its not so good- even with a rally on the day. so if the rally doesnt fade by days end, it will by friday.
This may confuse you for now but it should give us a little perspective for August
Monday Aug 3rd reading
BIG BIZ gets the GREEN LIGHT
and the bullish trend continues to
Friday Aug 7th = FORTUNE SMILES
___________________
Monday Aug10th =Judgment OFF - watch your $$ & expect $ squabbles
______________________
MOnday Aug 17th = expect MANY BLESSINGS
its also the 1/2 way mark on a 55 tr day cycle
___________________
Monday Aug24th
today Soars
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MONDAY'S are typically GOOD days in BEAR mkt trends, BUT
After the 17th, the atmosphere turns more negative, AND really gets DOWN after the 24th to the 27th.
I will update as we make progress in August, so dont get too involved with the above just yet.
However it does give us some idea of the nature of the month.
Chankya's map doesnt quite match the astro, so we mght have to ask him for an update around the 10th.
more later
Jay
MKT Update: 7/27 (turn day); bearish rev. sitting up at SPX 993; MKT has to show it wants to pullback; bulls accumulating at 972.8
ReplyDeleteFlash
Aug 17th is right about the Gann turn date in Aug
ReplyDeleteYup. Just like criminals. Wait till the last possible cycle shaking out the shorts and sell off hard for a day starting after hours to get the least amount of participants onboard.
ReplyDeleteKevin M
this is getting beyond a joke now,time window for a high is getting stretched badly here,if we go up again tomorrow taking out this mornings top,then realistically we could very well be going up into the end of july instead of down.we should not be closing in the green some 10pts up from the low if we've turned over.
ReplyDeleteThanks jay. will be looking for pullbak tomorrow and wed. to get out of shorts.
ReplyDeleteI can see strong rally then as so many bears are looking to cover shorts. However, afterwards, it should be ready crash.
sam
Sam,
ReplyDeleteDon't wait or anticipate "crashes"
They don't happen very often.
Looking at my system, it really looks like continuation rally tommorrow from open but will be brief before it turns over and sells off hard. In otherwords, don't get fooled by a gap-up opening if it occurrs. There was strong churning today from the smart boys selling to mom&pop mutual fund investors. Their newly invested money will start out in the hole. Da Cycle Boys will make certain of it.
ReplyDeleteJeffrey
Closed over 980. I'm out of short
ReplyDeletepositions. Will short at higher levels.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWe did not complete the fifth wave this morning.
ReplyDeleteWe are still in late stage of a fifth. Either doing iv of (v) triangle where we ended at d of iv; or in last stage of an ending diagonal since 951.85.
The first count implies 4-5 points down to e of (iv)in the morning and then a thrust up towards 988-993 to complete (v); the second count allows for going straight to 985+ area to complete (v).
In either case, a slightly higher hi tomorrow AM before starting down.
I don't see how the correction of a 12-14 day move up will be complete in one trading day by Wednesday 29th at 10:30. Friday is more likely for a completion of a even a shallow three wave down correction in the area of 938-956.
Ravi
Ravi,
ReplyDeleteNice work bro.
Jimmy
MKT Update: only thing goin for bears rt. now is (-) divergence between the $BKX & $SPX; $BKX is where the contagion started..it leads :-)
ReplyDeleteMKT Update: bullish rev. at SPX 988.x, 993; no bullish rev. (in this case we use stops); MKT must prove it too us... turns 7/30,7/31
Flash
She ain't waitin around this morning!
ReplyDeleteNO 5th WAVE!
Yup, Just like criminals. Ha!
Kevin M.
Definitely Buy the gap and forget about your 1st 30 min. no-trading clause.
ReplyDeletenookie