Within (c) of B, we appear to be in (iii) of (c) of B. It is not clear if the low so far is all of (iii) or just i of (iii). The second alternative will be very bearish, the first makes it shorter than the hypothetical path.
Hypothetical:
(i) of (c) 1013.14 994.6 -18.54 (ii) of (c) 994.6 1004.17 9.57 52% (iii) of (c) 1004.17 974.17 -30.00 1.618 target
Actual so far,
so far 1004.17 979.86 -24.31 1.31 (iv) of c? 979.86 989.15 9.29 38.2%
I do EW do hand after printing a chart. I do not have something that can be posted. During the market, depending on each hand revealed by market, I visually look for new alternatives emerging or old ones being negated.
Dan Eric does a chart every end of day quite thoroughly on his blogg, I simply try to put my alternative count on it.
Thansk all. jay, ravi and Mr. Puetz. I need to see 930 by wed. to break even. keeping my fingers crossed. I think we see more down side here as dip buying is not seen. Shrts are covering so no buyers left. This is a genuine down leg.
Daneric's call: at least 960 ( see his comments scetion) Daneric 6 hours ago I'm thinking same thing. Drop to the trendline. Ultimately I think the 959 major support area has to hold for there to be a Minor C wave to peak.
rrman: From a previous poster. VirginiaJim I looked at hundreds of timing relationships this weekend and settled on this one:
QQQQs topped exactly October 31, 2007 and appears to have topped August 7, 2009, the day after the most important date in the Puetz Crash Cycle. That's exactly 448 trading days. [The Puetz crash phase of his cycle ends August 20, 2009 and the panic phase begins.] It was 5 trading days after the October 31, 2007 top.
QQQQs hit the 'meat' of their mini crash after the October 31, 2007 6 days later on November 6, 2007. That would be 1 to 1 timing with today.
QQQQs hit their bottom on Noveber 12, 2007 after losing 11% in 9 trading days. The vast majortiy was lost in the last 4 trading days. We are dead on the beginning of that 4 day period....448 days later
The problem is during the 6 weeks surrounding a solar eclipse there are 4 full moons. There are at least 2 solar eclipses every year so that's 8 full moons that qualify for the Puetz window each year. What's the point? So we had a few crashes that started during a Puetz window. We've had nearly 1000 Puetz windows since 1929.
Had a difficult time trading when I was working for First Data merchant Services
I did well with my 401K in 1998 to 2000, and held it in cash ever since
It seems I Was ALWAYS in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG time to trade options.
Now I am trading full time for last 2 years and am doing WELL as I have devoted ALL my time to it, and I make sure I am where I can trade when its the right time
Jay your call have been excellent and good call cycle work is so good and perfect thanks for sharing , I would like to know how do you keep up the cycle do you have a program that calculate or else? but great work . are you going to cover the short tomorrow ? Thanks Kris
Kris it gets really rough to trade this week Yes, I will cover shorts soon
1. possibly at 2pm - Tuesday or 2. possibly at 11am on Wed or 3. possibly at 2pm on Ths -20th or any of the above times could cover and re-short in between each, but the 20th could be the date of LAST CHANCE to cover shorts - its option week which always adds to volatility
I CAN ALSO tell you for SURE the 24th WILL be a HUGE one dAY RALLY, so WHATEVER ELSE I DO, I will be LONg on the close Friday
price wise spx at 980 TODAY seems stunted using the 40 pts rule we have 1018 - 980= 38 pts
Mars 90 Uranus tomrrow, could offer another 40 pts to 940 ?? DONT HOLD MY FEET to the FIRE if we dont get there
Ravi 25.60 wave (a) x 2.618 = 67 1013 - 67 pts = 946 that's pretty close to the 40 pt rule at 940
We will be watching to see if tomrrow's open has any indications of such a deep cut. OR DEEPER!!
10am has a sun 150 uranus and it should be quite a bearish show combined with the influence of the mars 90 uranus
closing out positions tomrrow at 2pm, MIGHT possibly be too soon THE TREND THIS WEEK into FRIDAY AM is DOWN, and any rally in between will be VERY SHORT LIVED. A LOW Friday AM would most likely be a great OPP to get long.
AS USUAL -IM using a combo of cycles and astro to outline this week, followed by the power index, then the daily effect of the propensity index
The things I follow cannot be setup by a program or software, and Im waiting for someone to pay me big bucks to teach it to them- HAHA Unfortunately, people dont want to learn, they want to follow, so they can blame others for their ineffective trading.
Thanks jay for the guidance I will be lloking out for the market to cover shorts as you have indicated. Let us hope we pick up another 20 to 30 spx points tomorrow. If we are down to 965-960 I will cover half of the spx puts tuesday 2 pm and wait for other half until wed. sam
My flux and pee indicator once again say 980 is the limit. 980 must not be broken or xtrends are invalid. We are once again in a topping process. We shall see many gaps that doesnt fill resulting in several hundred point drop in coming weeks. Currently micromanaged and short 500 es contracts from 1018
Jay Thanks for all detailed answer . sure we all can pay for teaching us . cycle work is is tough to learen but will try. again thanks for good work . will cover some shorts today. Kris
propens index shows potential for some upside but short lived and lower by days end , possibly lower tomrrow AM.
Sam, selling some positions at 2pm seem like a good plan for today
My origianl outlook for today was a low at 4pm, and that still might work out as well as open tomrrow
Futures have backed off higher levels earlier this am
Media says that WALL ST liked Mondays sell off and referred to the mkt as having tanked, but I get The impression, they THINK its just a temporary dip, and are expecting higher levels quickly
my conjecture? A contrarian would say that As long as the gen public thinks that way, its still safe to be short- hmmm
Eric, How do you know for a fact that atilla doesn't post here? He needs to promote that site after being bearish for 5 months and losing so many followers.
Yes break of 992.40 confirms B started at 1018.
ReplyDeleteB appears to be in (c) of B in this hypothetical path that I posted earlier:
(a) 1018.00 992.40 -25.60
(b) 992.40 1013.14 20.74
(c) 1013.14 971.72 -41.42 1.618
Within (c) of B, we appear to be in (iii) of (c) of B. It is not clear if the low so far is all of (iii) or just i of (iii). The second alternative will be very bearish, the first makes it shorter than the hypothetical path.
Hypothetical:
(i) of (c) 1013.14 994.6 -18.54
(ii) of (c) 994.6 1004.17 9.57 52%
(iii) of (c) 1004.17 974.17 -30.00 1.618 target
Actual so far,
so far 1004.17 979.86 -24.31 1.31
(iv) of c? 979.86 989.15 9.29 38.2%
let us see how B unfold?
Anybody here ever heard of the PUETZ
ReplyDeletecrash cycle?? Supposedly it is occurring now.
ravi,
ReplyDeletedo you have charts?
Possible path to tomorrow's low:
ReplyDelete(i) of (c) 1013.14 994.60 -18.54
(ii) of (c) 994.6 1004.17 9.57 52%
(iii) of (c) 1004.17 979.23 -24.94 1.35
(iv) of c? 979.23 988.76 9.53 38.2%
(v) of c? 988.76 970.22 -18.54 (v)= (i)
inphinity:
ReplyDeleteI do EW do hand after printing a chart. I do not have something that can be posted. During the market, depending on each hand revealed by market, I visually look for new alternatives emerging or old ones being negated.
Dan Eric does a chart every end of day quite thoroughly on his blogg, I simply try to put my alternative count on it.
Puetz crash cycle says we go down
ReplyDeletehard now till the 20th, fwiw.
Thansk all. jay, ravi and Mr. Puetz. I need to see 930 by wed. to break even. keeping my fingers crossed.
ReplyDeleteI think we see more down side here as dip buying is not seen. Shrts are covering so no buyers left. This is a genuine down leg.
sam
FROM : IAN:
ReplyDeleteCycles were looking for a lower High today, 8/17.
With Globex down -20, That High came at the close on Friday 8/14 at an hourly back-kiss of TL (see chart).
We should be down to 8/19 MC and Hurst Low. There is still an hourly CIT at 12.45 pm today, we need to watch.
12:45 CIT came and gone. No up move. on our way to 8/19 low. whatever it is. he called for 50 points around 1000 so 956 is not out of picture.
MIKE
I thought the Puetz crash window closed last week.
ReplyDeleteDaneric's call: at least 960 ( see his comments scetion)
ReplyDeleteDaneric 6 hours ago
I'm thinking same thing. Drop to the trendline. Ultimately I think the 959 major support area has to hold for there to be a Minor C wave to peak.
At least we are getting a B wave finally heh
EWI call 925
sam
rrman: From a previous poster.
ReplyDeleteVirginiaJim I looked at hundreds of timing relationships this weekend and settled on this one:
QQQQs topped exactly October 31, 2007 and appears to have topped August 7, 2009, the day after the most important date in the Puetz Crash Cycle. That's exactly 448 trading days. [The Puetz crash phase of his cycle ends August 20, 2009 and the panic phase begins.] It was 5 trading days after the October 31, 2007 top.
QQQQs hit the 'meat' of their mini crash after the October 31, 2007 6 days later on November 6, 2007. That would be 1 to 1 timing with today.
QQQQs hit their bottom on Noveber 12, 2007 after losing 11% in 9 trading days. The vast majortiy was lost in the last 4 trading days. We are dead on the beginning of that 4 day period....448 days later
from Orions Belt
ReplyDeleteThe problem is during the 6 weeks surrounding a solar eclipse there are 4 full moons. There are at least 2 solar eclipses every year so that's 8 full moons that qualify for the Puetz window each year. What's the point? So we had a few crashes that started during a Puetz window. We've had nearly 1000 Puetz windows since 1929.
O.B.
ReplyDeleteGood point. This was just a fyi,
nothing more.
What are the chances for 'turn around Tuesday' this time?
ReplyDeleteThe vada-cross is still pointing down. I am short from qqqq 39.85
ReplyDeleteand holding.
979 here we go. fake out before the bounce to 985 or all the way to 970? hope for 970
ReplyDeletesam
Tomorrow has
ReplyDelete52 hour cycle low from Aug 6th due at 2;15pm
its 81 tr days Apr20th low to low
28tr days low to low
and there is a 258 bar cycle at 1;30 which could extend to 2pm since the previous one closed out at 252 bars
Jay
jay do you trade for a living? if so how long have you been doing this if you dont mind me asking?
ReplyDelete-Skip
Usually if the SPX drops 2 days in a row the 3rd day is Up or starts Up.
ReplyDeleteFWIW
Chris
Skip
ReplyDeleteIm retired
Had a difficult time trading
when I was working for First Data merchant Services
I did well with my 401K in 1998 to 2000, and held it in cash ever since
It seems I Was ALWAYS in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG time
to trade options.
Now I am trading full time for last 2 years and am doing WELL
as I have devoted ALL my time
to it, and I make sure I am where I can trade when its the right time
Jay
Vada-Cross still short from 39.85 on qqqq. I'm holding short.
ReplyDeleteJay your call have been excellent and good call cycle work is so good and perfect thanks for sharing , I would like to know how do you keep up the cycle do you have a program that calculate or else? but great work . are you going to cover the short tomorrow ?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Kris
Thanks J very nice blog and good luck with everything. -Skip
ReplyDeleteAwesome thread on TT. Check it out. re: Cycle Maps
ReplyDeletehttp://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?s=6ab3e01c8561606f0cc58a3653a6313d&showtopic=110073
Sally
Kris
ReplyDeleteit gets really rough to trade this week
Yes, I will cover shorts soon
1. possibly at 2pm - Tuesday
or
2. possibly at 11am on Wed
or
3. possibly at 2pm on Ths -20th
or any of the above times
could cover and re-short in between each, but the 20th could be the date of LAST CHANCE to cover shorts - its option week which always adds to volatility
I CAN ALSO tell you for SURE the 24th WILL be a HUGE one dAY RALLY, so WHATEVER ELSE I DO, I will be LONg on the close Friday
price wise
spx at 980 TODAY seems stunted
using the 40 pts rule we have
1018 - 980= 38 pts
Mars 90 Uranus tomrrow, could offer another 40 pts to 940 ??
DONT HOLD MY FEET to the FIRE if we dont get there
Ravi
25.60 wave (a) x 2.618 = 67
1013 - 67 pts = 946
that's pretty close to the 40 pt rule at 940
We will be watching to see if tomrrow's open has any indications
of such a deep cut. OR DEEPER!!
10am has a sun 150 uranus and it should be quite a bearish show
combined with the influence of the mars 90 uranus
closing out positions tomrrow at 2pm, MIGHT possibly be too soon
THE TREND THIS WEEK into FRIDAY AM is DOWN, and any rally in between will be VERY SHORT LIVED.
A LOW Friday AM would most likely be a great OPP to get long.
AS USUAL -IM using a combo of cycles and astro to outline this week, followed by the power index, then the daily effect of the propensity index
The things I follow cannot be setup by a program or software, and Im waiting for someone
to pay me big bucks to teach it to them- HAHA
Unfortunately, people dont want to learn, they want to follow, so they can blame others for their ineffective trading.
more later
Jay
Thanks jay for the guidance
ReplyDeleteI will be lloking out for the market to cover shorts as you have indicated. Let us hope we pick up another 20 to 30 spx points tomorrow. If we are down to 965-960 I will cover half of the spx puts tuesday 2 pm and wait for other half until wed.
sam
My flux and pee indicator once again say 980 is the limit. 980 must not be broken or xtrends are invalid. We are once again in a topping process. We shall see many gaps that doesnt fill resulting in several hundred point drop in coming weeks. Currently micromanaged and short 500 es contracts from 1018
ReplyDeleteatilla
so we are heading down lower into this thursday??
ReplyDeletewhat level? SPX below 970??
Appreciate your advice
wahahahahhahhaa........ :
ReplyDeleteSo pg is atilla. How many handles do you post under?
ReplyDeleteHenry
Atilla, Doe not post here know this to be a fact Eric
ReplyDeleteJay Thanks for all detailed answer . sure we all can pay for teaching us . cycle work is is tough to learen but will try. again thanks for good work . will cover some shorts today.
ReplyDeleteKris
Today's Picture -
ReplyDeletePositive.
Morning high around 10:15
Mid-day volatility starting with a noon high followed by the low of the day.
Finish up.
Coy
its 9am
ReplyDeleteactivity index is at 66
Flux is FLAT LINE
propens index shows potential for some upside but short lived and lower by days end , possibly lower tomrrow AM.
Sam, selling some positions at 2pm seem like a good plan for today
My origianl outlook for today was a low at 4pm, and that still might work out as well as open tomrrow
Futures have backed off higher levels earlier this am
Media says that WALL ST liked Mondays sell off and referred to the mkt as having tanked, but I get The impression, they THINK its just a temporary dip, and are expecting higher levels quickly
my conjecture?
A contrarian would say that As long as the gen public thinks that way, its still safe to be short- hmmm
more later
Jay
I agree with JAY.
ReplyDeleteShort the rally today! Trend is still down.
Billy
Eric,
ReplyDeleteHow do you know for a fact that
atilla doesn't post here? He needs to promote that site after being bearish for 5 months and losing so many followers.
First clear small five wave impulsive down
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ReplyDelete