INTERNALS have ISSUED A TECHNICAL SELL SIGNAL
I have a DAILY RECORD of ARMS data that goes back many years
TODAY we are 120 tr days from MARCH 9th
1. 5 day ARMS = 75.4 and has been UNDER 80 for 3days in a row
2. TRIN 5 = 377 and has been UNDER 400 for days in a ROW
3. TRIn 10 - 977 and has been under 1000 for 3 days in a row
THOSE are VERY bearish readings
it could take as little as one day or as much as 10 days to see its effects.
Power index drops lower after today
propens index makes one more stab highr today, but closes lower-
tomrrow's graph is not available until early morning
The JURY is OUT as of this moment as to the DEPTH of tomrrows drop,
the level of which will indicate
either and END of the current rally from 978 to 1038
OR
a continuation into Sptember
Ravi is the MASTER of the MATH, and of course has also posed the same question
more later
Jay
Jay:
ReplyDeleteTomorrow 8:30 is GDP announcement. positive news can create wave 5 to 1044 area.
In chart you posted, OBV looks positive for bullish case!
I think OBV works better for individual stocks very long term
Last two corrections from (iii) of 3 and from end of 3, both stopped in the area of August 21 low 1021.80. That low was iv of (iii) of 3.
ReplyDeletePrior lower order fours often define target for correction. We may break that any minute for somewhat deeper correction.
or will we?
ReplyDeleteTrying a long here tna $39.51
ReplyDeletepg
A possible path for 4:
ReplyDelete4??
a 1037.75 1021.57 -16.18
b 1021.57 1029.52 7.95
c?? 1029.52 1013.34 -16.18
The break in SPX, of iv, not yet confirmed by DJI
ReplyDeletestopped out $39.11
ReplyDeleteout of 50% of shorts. will renter on wave 5.
ReplyDeleteNOW theres the POWER of CYCLES
ReplyDelete10am
258 bars
52 hrs Aug17thlo to lo
dow off 83, and spx at 1016
AS Ravi posted possible
Activity indx has jumped from 100 to 233 at 10am
propens index is higher mid day, but ends lower
power index higher mid day also, but ends lower and is lower tomrrow
we''ll SEE just where tomrrow closes - how low is low?
Friday's Readings calls for good AM hours and anxiety later
According to the readings, we could see a higher open and down close just as I POSTED last wkend
Jay
Jay
To complete five minuette waves from yesterday afternoon, we may get a lower low in 1015-1013 today. Do not expect lower than that for wave 4 from 1037.75. I do not see a deeper retrace for 4 down. Only, issue is H&S indicates 1005-1006. But the H&S is a bit iffy and we have penetrated back a bit into neckline.
ReplyDeleteJay, what are your indicators showing? Are you expecting a lower low tomorrow am?
Bottom is in.
ReplyDeleteLONG
jj
Ravi
ReplyDeleteTOMRROW
Higher open
Lower close
Jay
1006 very possible
Yesterday, I mentioned a possible turn to the upside today. I think that came in at 11:00
ReplyDeleteI have a low at 13:30, if it comes in.
This rally is gonna be a fast one.
ReplyDeletejj
I got out of 55% at 10:09 as we kissed line parallel to that joining tops of last two days and the 1016 target, without waiting for possible 1013. Bottom came at 10:10.
ReplyDeleteLooks like, I got lucky with that timing.
Yes, bottom of 4 may be in for a five wave ride up to end of 5 and possibly of C.
according to Martie bottom is in and bounce to 1040 --1070
ReplyDeletehttp://bostonwealth.net/author/mortie/
This fits Flash' scenario. 9700 first by tomorrow and then down
Per IAN:
Markets found support at the old 8/7 high as expected and are in a Low am to High pm pattern, so the 12.30 or 12.50-1.00 pm CIT should be the next High.
The MC suggests we close down, near the Lows, so expect an early last hour High, perhaps at the 2.40 CIT and a sell-off into the close.
Tomorrow is biased to be down. The next daily and hourly CIT is on 8/31-9/1.
This fits Jay's scenario
let us see who wins.
I got stopped out of SDS calls.
looks like wave (i) of 5 just got done. Now retrace in (i) should start.
ReplyDeletemeant retrace in (ii).
ReplyDeletetarget 1022-1024
Mahoney,
ReplyDeletecrash alert for sept 1st
http://csiwallstreet.com/beware-9-1-09.htm
a2
I believe today remains positive to the EOD. However, tomorrow looks to begin a whole new regime to the downside.
ReplyDeleteToday the Moon is at the Balsamic cusp. The phase that has greatest number of updays.
Coy
DJI got to within 10 points, or 0.1% of prior hi in 3. SPX within 4.4, or 0.4%.
ReplyDeleteThis can't be (i) of 5, unless we have blasting of wedge ahead of us.
Are we getting 5 done in just one day?
within 5, we are either in extended (iii) or 5>3. If the former plenty of room above. If the later, we can have .dji making new hi with spx not confirming.
ReplyDeleteLooks like, one more hi will complete
ReplyDeleteextended (iii) of 5. Another down for (iv) and then a (v) of 5 to end it.
What if the entire move is just a big (i) of (v) of 5?
Let us first see if we make a new hi on completing this one.
"I can feel it coming in the air tonight, Oh Lord
ReplyDeleteI've been waiting for this moment, all my life, Oh Lord
Can you feel it coming in the air tonight, Oh Lord, Oh Lord ".....
lol
jj
count the pinching Bollinger Bands....theyre all over the place.
ReplyDeleteResoultion UP or Down.
Chris
FLASH: MKT: Best juicy scenario is for options writers to goose the MKT up into 15 SEP. then drop; we see; gotta get thru 8/28 1st
ReplyDeleteabout 1 hour ago from web
lOOKS LIKE DOWN TO MORROW AND AND UP UNTIL 9700 AND THEN DROP. not diffeenrent from IAN
looks like another doji. fourth in a row. last tie we dropped from a cluster of doji
ReplyDeleteIf we get a lower low tomorrow then it's OVER. Bye bye Bulls and Cramericans.
ReplyDeleteOtherwise we should continue Up from here.
Billy
Victor,
ReplyDeleteAre u still short QQQQ
Thanks
chris carolan has posted his updated Solar Lunar Model it kind of went off the reservation the last two months but he said Aug. 29th with the red Tidal Date is almost identical to the
ReplyDeleteJan. top that the chart called he says we should turn Aug 29ish ...
http://carolan.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/verge.gif