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ts 9am
activity index is at 66
Flux is FLAT LINE
propens index shows potential for some upside but short lived
and lower by days end , possibly lower tomrrow AM.
Sam, selling some positions at 2pm seem like a good plan for today
My original outlook for today was a low at 4pm,
that still might work out as well as open tomrrow
Futures have backed off higher levels earlier this am
Media says that WALL ST liked Mondays sell off and referred to the mkt as having tanked,
but I get The impression, they THINK its just a temporary dip,
and are expecting higher levels quickly
my conjecture?
A contrarian would say that As long as the gen public thinks that way, its still safe to be short- hmmm
more later
Jay
The A wave was 22 days
ReplyDelete22 0.382 8.40
22 0.5 11.00
22 0.618 13.60
EW does not require it, but one would normally expect B wave to be 8 to 13 days. Today is 7th.
Cycle work is better for timing though.
Ravi,
ReplyDeleteWould it be possible for you to post trades based on your EW analysis
such as 'short %25 at es ??? with a stop of ???. Just to help all of us understand how to trade using EW.
Thank you in advance.
Ravi.
ReplyDeleteWhat is your ST count for today with possible resistance level before reversal down?
thanks
Sally
Vada-Cross signal still short qqqq
ReplyDeletefrom 39.85 and holding. Thanks
Sally:
ReplyDeleteMy best read is that we are doing (iv) of (c)
Bill:
Crossing back above 992.40 will be danger sign for shorts, specially on closing basis.
If we are in (iv) of (c), as I read it, the fibs are 998.7, 991.6 and 994.6. The 61.8% at 994.6 is also bottom of (i) of (c) at 994.60 at Friday 11:30. Intraday, a stop loss there should be considered.
this morning was a gift to go long. 980 was a well defined spot to protect. We will hit at least 992 today imo
ReplyDeletepg
Ravi,
ReplyDeleteIf you were short using EW where
would your stop be ??? Thank you.
pg,
ReplyDeleteI like your confidence. Can you give
us a hint as to why you feel 992 is
going to get hit?? Thanks
5 min inv head and shoulders here. a break above 987.5 targets 993.5.
ReplyDeleteNo worrys SHORTS. On a 15min chart with BollingerBands(40), price should tag the Upper Band which is rapidly closing in on 992 or thereabouts lower or higher. This will be the turning point or reversal down. If price continues uptrend and bands flare then cover in a hurry. But I strongly lean to resumption of downtrend like Jay has analysed. We still need to tag the bottom BollingerBand(20) on the Daily chart.
ReplyDeleteRicky
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletefailed to mention the importance of 984.60 in EW. If (c) is a five wave impulse, (iv) can not get in the territory of (i). If it does, you have to conclude that (c) was a three wave flat that ended yesterday. Does not mean it will shoot up right there, but next dip may be oppty. to get out depending on how the waves look from yesterday's bottom to up there.
ReplyDeleteRavi. Cool.
ReplyDeleteGreat EW. Yeah I can see it clearly. Goes well with other posters work here.
Sally
As projected by the propens index we are getting a rebound of sorts today- and a LATE SELL OFF should occur making a lower low tomrrow
ReplyDeleteRavi pointed out 22 days, ONE MORE THAN FIbo
9DAYS for WAVE 'a' of B is tomrrow
& 14 days does take us to Aug 26th which is ONE more than FIBO.
the Readings for today and tomrrow
have flipped places
today NOW reads
CAUTION with $$
Maintain a steady focus
Avoid a temptation to spend
Dont be lead in the wrong direction
TOmrrow NOW becomes
expect reckless and explosive action & tensions
NO shopping and be careflu when travelling
the REASON for this is simple
the Mars 90 Uranus aspect occurs at 10pm TONIGHT
One would usually expect such a transit to have its effects on the day b4 its ocurrance, but the evidenc is NOW pointing more clearly to tomrrrow
Usually the BIGGER decline happens LAST, and thus we are still expecting such to happen.
______________________________
Whats NEXT
IMO
any rally today should not exceed 23.6% x 38pts = 8.97 = 988.60
or dow + 72 pts = 9207
AT 11:30, the ACTIVITY INDEX IS STILL hugging 66 and has been flat all morning
Propens index rises from 2990 to 2996, then drops to 2987
FLUX is FLAT = a negative day
228bars hit a minor low at 10;30
11am turned higher
258 bars as mentioned might actually provide a trun if 329 bars is in play for tomrrow at noon to noon:30
________________________
At 7am which should effect the open tomrrow
venus is 150 jupiter = expect NO security in this excessive & exaggerated atmosphere
at 11am on the 19th we have a Jupiter 150 Saturn
Expansion clashes with restriction
big plans fall apart
___________________
20th new moon at 6am
merc 150 neptune at 5pm=
confusion & confounded facts
7am on 21st
merc 180 uranus
disruptions & confusion
SO, it does look like the BIG one might just occur on the 20th.
2 cycle convergences at 2pm which I posted b4 , and 3;30 at 180 bars
has potential also
its almost noon and they are reaching for the hod, which might occur anytime between now and 3pm
more later
Jay
Even if we go down to complete (a), (b), (c) in 970 something; keep in mind that will complete a 3-3-5, after a correction a, b, c up we can still make another flat or zig-zag down to complete B.
ReplyDeleteRavi,
ReplyDeleteCould you PLease post what your trades would be using EW?? Short at?
stop at ??. Thanks
Jake
ReplyDeleteShort here can be considered with stop at 994.60 plus say 995. Or take a chance for 50% retrace and short around 992 with same stop. Use your judgment, trade at your own risk.
Look at a 15 min graph and maybe you'll see why I see 992 next. 992 is just a target. Let's see what happens at 992ish. I'll probably sell my longs when we get there. Btw, it's not a coincidence that 980 held.
ReplyDeletepg
complication, on DJI the wave count looks a bit different.
ReplyDeletelevel to watch on dji is 9233.06 that corresponds to 99460 on spx. we are closer to this one
ReplyDeleteRavi,
ReplyDeleteThanks. Stop at 994.60
Dear Members,
ReplyDeleteMonday Metals moved down sharply as expected. We expected Monday prices not to rise above last week Friday close. We mentioned that gold should top out $949.80 and silver $14.87 and on the lower-side gold at $923.80 and for silver $13.45 for this week. Copper target range for this week is $287 to $269.
Lower side prices should be fulfilled by Wednesday and if they trade below lower-side predicted prices, then gold could move up to $909 and silver $12.90. We are still bearish on metals on all terms.
Tuesday, December gold prices may move up to $943.80, September silver $13.23 and copper $281.80, selling around these prices will earn you good profit in the next 36 hours. First target for gold is $923.80, silver $13.45 and copper $269.
Oil traded weak on Monday as predicted and we are expecting correction also on Tuesday after touching intraday high on Tuesday $69.70 (October contract).
Grains to remain on sideways trend for Tuesday and Wednesday but short term prices may gain on Thursday and Friday. Corn and Wheat will bottom out in two weeks.
Soft commodities will under-perform continuously against all commodities. Tuesday all these soft commodities will show some sign of recovery but tomorrow they all shall adopt negative path again.
On Monday Dollar moved up sharply as expected. Early morning on Tuesday in Asian and European market it has been losing some stream but later in USA market it will gain momentum. Lower side we expect US Dollar to touch 79.16 (September contract) and by end of day it will stabilize around Mondays closing.
We are expecting a sharp up movement on Wednesday. Sell Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Euro and British pound on Tuesday.
Yen is to remain weak on Tuesday but it will gain momentum on Wednesday. Avoid trading Swiss Franc on Tuesday.
All market stock markets traded weak on Monday, especially Chinese market and we see more correction on the way in all major markets from Wednesday. Tuesday will be a great day to sell Asian, European and American market on any positive trend.
Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra Sharma, Tuesday 11.55 AM Mumbai
www.mahendraprophecy.com
SPX 15m Chart rising channel. Will bottom line hold or break? You know what to do.
ReplyDeleteRicky
Covered %50 of shorts from qqqq 39.85
ReplyDeleteat 39.05. Holding rest till Vada-Cross trend change signal
Vivtor, what is VADA-Cross? is it a system or a news letter?
ReplyDeletesam
Sam,
ReplyDeleteIt is a short term signal developed
by someone else. It has given me
very good results, small losses,
trades with the short term trend.
And the trades are crystal clear.
I am 50 percent short qqqq right now. I was 100 percent short from
8-14 at 39.85 and covered half at 39.05. I will keep posting till I'm told not to.
It looks like Jay we will have to cover shorts tomorrow or at the close today?
ReplyDeletesam
I think 990 is the high. Now it is at the top of the down chanel. we should see down leg soon to 963 by tomorrow. There may be short fake out to 992 but for a short time frame.
ReplyDeletesam.
Okay. I am piled in SHORT. It's just me vs the market and I don't plan on losing this hand.
ReplyDeleteMarket , you belong to MEEE!!
Donny
992 is where we broke neckline on the 60 min chart so this is just a backside bounce back to that area gotta hold that for the shorts
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletethe only redeeming aspect of the up today for shorts is that it looks corrective not impulsive and has not crossed 984.60. (or 9233.06 for that matter, yet)
ReplyDeletedid not notice, dji did cross 9233.06. needs a new count atleast for dji.
ReplyDeleteSPY, QQQQ, FXI selling on strength today
ReplyDeletehttp://etfdailynews.com/blog/?p=5503
Close enough. Sold my longs from this morning's open here at 990.39. We may bust higher or stop short since many more traders are seeing 992 as the limit.
ReplyDeletepg
GAP DOWN.
ReplyDeletefdr
DOW hit 9233.51
ReplyDeleteanother JUSSSST right
Jay
thanks Ravi
I think it's risky to short here. We could actually bust higher tomorrow morning so you'd better be flexible. Clearer direction will appear tomorrow morning. imo
ReplyDeletepg
pg
ReplyDeleteI agree. Tomorrow we could bust
higher. I'm still %50 short from
qqqq 39.85. Vada-Cross may stop me
out after 10:00. I will post.