WOW
Activity index is NOW AT 33, its LOWEST value
I think Aug 17th was the last time that occurred
258 bars hit RIGHT at OPEn-- now BACK in SYNC
30 bars at Noon providing a dip, but not lower low
60 bars are at 2;30
90 bars WILL be on Monday at 10;30
MONDAY could be a DAY TRADERS DELIGHT
many twists & turns of decent magnitude
If today makes its LOW at close at 1040 or lower, then I still see that as
WAVE{A}
WAVE {B} should be MONDAy to EARLY wed
WAVE {C} ends Oct2nd, also a BRADLEY date
Jay
I posted yesterday that 41.59 was
ReplyDeletefirst target on qqqq. Low of day today was 41.60. Damn! I did not
expect that level to hit till Monday.
Oh Well. Next target is 41.16....
Hopefully not today
Hi, Jay,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update.
Can you tell me a little bit how you count the bar, 258, 30, 60,... Is that 1 min, 5 min, or something and where to start counting? From the 9:30 am or from previous high/low?
Thanks
Bryan
Cal i am long at 1042.6. what is your system here?
ReplyDeletejay, thanks for the new thread. Hope the argument is over. the best way is to ignore no take it personally.
SPX is sitting on the trendline support. I will go long BGU for short term trade.
ReplyDeleteBryan
Sam
ReplyDeleteMy system is setting up for a Buy in correspondence with Jay's system.
Close but not quite there yet. Waiting for confirmation.
Do you participate this morning or not. Sorry I couldn't be clearer about my plan. It was a very intricate setup and conditional on a lot of variables.
Cal
Funny story -- a must read from doug kass @ http://www.thestreet.com/print/story/10602777.html
ReplyDelete"I don't know about you, but after recounting our discussion and now reading it over again, I think that I have located the proximate cause for the market's remarkable reversal; it's the return of Boca Biff!"
Thansk cal.
ReplyDeletespx is at about 20-day ema. Should provide a bounce. But on the other hand, today's high was the 10-day ema.
ReplyDeleteNice positive divergences I'm seeing now in the smaller cycle timeframes.
ReplyDeleteCal
Everyone expecting a bounce, but we won't get it. We will grind lower and crash much further to 1030. Dip buyers have given up.
ReplyDeleteBought BGU @ 48.88.
ReplyDeleteBryan
I'm LONG@ 1042.78
ReplyDeleteCal
BRYAN
ReplyDeleteI really think your premature
on that BGU - but use yur best judgement
THERE IS NO REASON at all
CYCLE, ELLIOTT or other to TURN BACK UP TODAY
and they are barely holding onto 1042 level
Bryan
BAR cycle START it at OPEN today
that was 258 bars
Every 30 bars = 2 + 1/2 hours
Yuo can count 258bars or 21 hours
EVERy 2+1/2 hours, the MKT takes a BREATH
Most common low points are found at
90
180
258
but in between
can be
60
126
156
Just follow the MKT and yuo will catch on to it.
Astro or other cycles pull at it sometimes, and sometimes it skips like it did yesterday, but today at open was back in sync.
It looks to me like were in wave [v] of {A}
wave [iv]looks like it topped at 10:10am.
39 hr cycle hi to hi hit at 10am today from the 17th at 10am spx hit 1074.77
60 bar low at 2;30 might be the initial low with a match at close
however,
the propens index shows TODAY closing at its LOWS as does a late plunge on the power index.
more later
Jay
ps.
I dont take offense personally to banter, its just childish and not productive.
Jay,
ReplyDeleteAt what level is Hadiks weekly
2 close reversal triggered.
This would signal weekly int.term
declines ahead, correct??
Congratulation cal your hot nowadays
ReplyDeleteJay,
ReplyDeleteTHanks. I don't take serious consideration of cycles, astro, etc. I just consider price levels. I am green now (so far the lowest tick of BGU is 48.87). WIll exit half near here and leave another half run. (stop at 48.80).
yes, sold half @ 49.35.
ReplyDeleteWhat's your target, Cal?
I set stop @ today's low. That's a free trade.
Bryan
I raised my stop to a profit positiion.
ReplyDeleteI raised it again for more profit
ReplyDeleteI see targets as 1054, 1056, 1059 take profit at any of this level. nasty down wave may be coming
ReplyDeletestopped out at 1046
ReplyDeleteSam,
ReplyDeleteI am still holding the remaining half and keep the stop unchanged (today's low). I am counting this as mini wave (1) or (a) with count trend move to SPY around 105.6 to 106. I will hold the position till that level or take me out by breaching today's low.
Bryan
In my system support here at a hair under 1045. If line is broken with conviction consider TMAR for me.
ReplyDeleteIf it holds I see 1048-1053 area.
Cal
Cal,
ReplyDeleteWhat is TMAR?
1032-4 may be a better level for 15 pt bounce.
Peter
Hey Sam.
ReplyDeleteYes beware of this rally that started around midday if it rallys into close. Good chance it might jump on Monday's open but it might last only an hour or 2. Or it tanks from Monday's open. If it rallys all day Monday then we have most likely have a larger cycle reversal.
I'll examine cycle structure at close.
Cal
Peter
ReplyDeleteTMAR - take money and run
Cal
I'm taking half off here SPX@1049and let other half run...free money
ReplyDeletethat's 14 points cumulative today.
Cal
Weren't we supposed to tank 200 dow points today? What's happening?
ReplyDelete3pm hit 1049
ReplyDeletewhich looked like 5 waves OFF the
1;30 low @ 1041
1053 down to 1041 was the last leg
rebound = 62% of 12 or = 7 pts
That LOOKS LIKE it should be in wave [iv] position
thus waiting for the 5th wave to make a low, if not at close today then possible for Monday AM.
Jay
I like your TMAR abbriviation cal.
ReplyDeleteI think we may see 1054 at least but I do not want to go in now. wait for the right entry or done for the day. I am too cautious as I have seen my profit disappear and close the postion with loss at the stop.
Thanks guys for your post.
JAY, I agree with your count. wave five is coming maybe from 1054, 1056 or 1059. will enter short somewhere there.
ReplyDeleteon a 5 min chart a mini H&S in the making, if it counts on a such short time frame.
ReplyDeleteRavi
ReplyDeletewhat was today all about
did we trace out 5 waves to 1041?
If so, then we will now see a rebound, but theres NOT much room at the top between 1041 and 1081
If 5 waves made wave 1 down at 1:30, and we are now in wave 2, then we know whats next
I really dont see Monday with big losses but ??
Merc goes Direct on the 29th at 9am, so its effect and EOM window dressing falls perfectly in tune with a sell RoshHashanah and buy Yom Kippur- Monday
As for NOw they are marking time
typical wave 2 or 4
Jay
h&S forms because we get wave 4 & 5 finishing an UP wave
ReplyDeleteThen
Waves 1 & 2 starting the NEXT down wave
I dont see 1054 in the numbers?/
78.6% of the last 12 pt leg = 9.43
1041 + 9.43 doesnt break over 1050
and would violate the H&S
1053.47 was the PREVIOUS degree wave 4 high off the 1045.85 first wave low
last 15 min starting to deteriorate some, maybe validting the next down leg into Monday
Last year SPT 29th lost 777
it was ROShHashanah
but
I doubt it
Jay
Jay
ReplyDeleteIf SPX darts down to make a "5th" wave lower low on Monday and comes up equally as fast within the first hour of trading, then I can see a Monday rally that lasts possibly the whole day without reversing larger cycle trend larger cycle. This agrees with your system.
IF
this rally continues where it left off at close today and stays up into early Monday than prepare for a dump the same day.
That's what I see. the 2 scenarios in my work.
Cal
IT view from FLASH:
ReplyDeleteMr Faber, understand that the MKT may still go to new highs into 2015; first things 1st; low comin in around 11/1/09; bears will hate it :-)
about 3 hours ago from web
MKT Update: turned right out of the G-20 into my 9/24 turn; nice; this sellin wave is an appetizer; next wave of sellin starts 10/10-19
about 4 hours ago from web
I do not if FLASH is refering to year 2015 or some index? SPX?
Flash let us know.
I've just exited @nd half of longs for today @ 1045.86 from 1042
ReplyDeleteMonday's a new day.
Cal
Jay
ReplyDeleteOops
3rd scenario:Market tanks from here.
We'll know Monday which one it is and trade accordingly.
Have a great weekend to all especially the nameless "anons" who need some extra tender care.
Cal
went flat at close out of my faz will wait for monday to decide looks like we're on a short the rips now rather than buy the dips...
ReplyDeleteGood trade, everyone.
ReplyDeleteMarket is at support right here right now. But it is hard to tell if Monday brings a rally or tank. If we see gap down, especially big gap down, I would sell BGU, which is still held now, and buy BGZ on any rally attempt.
Bryan
They may try to rally them for 2 or 3 days for Quarter end, and trhen let them drop. QQQQ hit first target
ReplyDeletealmost to the penny. Next target
is 41.16. Monday I will post my trade
after 10:00 am
Hard to refute these 10 reasons for an imminent stock market crash.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/163213-ten-reasons-for-an-imminent-stock-market-crash?source=kizur
Huge rally Monday like Jay says is in the works. Market held and consolidated to prepare for launch.
ReplyDeleteCal,
ReplyDeleteThe WAVE DOWN looks UNFINISHED
Monday's power index seems to point DOWN
My ((previous)) call for BIG UPDAY was based on WASH OUT selling on 25th WHICH HAS NOT OCCURRED
spx 1020 should be a good target
Jay
Jay, (and to answer your question rrman)...
ReplyDeleteI got out of my shorts Friday around 1043, and went long. I'll have a weekend update of what I think is coming next week, by Sunday night.
Both scenarios are pointing up for at least a couple of days.
Red