reports are coming in to ID the wv (iv) low and a concensus seems to be brewing for SPX 1039As I wrote SEVERAL TIMES a SPT 25th LOW should EXPLODE Upward to the OCT 10th to 13th TOP
SO we seem to be looking for spx1039 on or b4 Spt25th
SPX got to 1061.19, and lost 13.58 from its high of 1074.77
83 pts was the LAST gain from 992 to 1075 rounded off
the loss represents 16.36% __ aha- FIBO hits us right in the face
a loss to 1040 = 35pts & 42% - not your usual percentage, but it has worked b4.
BOTH the 25th AND Oct 2nd have fibo low point connotations
but they are occurring during a RISING trend to a crescendo on OCT10th
IT means that any setbacks within the time frames mentioned
above would most likely be muted or lessened because of that uptrend
The TRANNIES have been pointed out as a confirmation of the continued uptrend
ALSO- MY internal DATA of ARMS, etc has NOT issued a SELL SIGNAL
IT did have a MINOR sell on Aug28th and a buy on 9/2
9/2 was an 8day low, making 9/3 and 8 day TURN
We are coming up on the 25th = another 8day LOW & turn on the 28th
combined with a 55 tr day low from JULY10th, should allow that price
explosion to the end of the month
THIS IS ALL happening in DIRECT oppostion to LAST years SPT 29th debacle
leading to that MONSTER SELL OFF on Oct10th.
the FIRST sign of a CRACK in the armor last year was the SPt 4th loss of 344pts
followed bySPT15 loss of 500 pts, and so forth
JUST THE OPPOSITE this year, UNTIL we GE TO OCTOBER 10th, then, ___well
that story is FOR LATER
Jay
rally continues from yesterday
ReplyDeleteBUT
be cautious
Cal
I've taken nice profits from yesterday. Still riding a small free money position.
ReplyDeleteCal
Looking for short entry signals.
Cal
I held out yesterday as well Cal, not sure why I did. I figure I dont want to leave money on the tbl. Also it seems today as per seasonality as per Cobra we shd have a up day. If its a strong close then we may open low on Monday and close again high on Mon ?? Will late Jay and other experts call that one, Im not at their level. Depending on how it goes, Im going to sell most of my longs and wait it out to a minor correction as Jay and a few other folks are suggesting. If it goes the other way and we go up to 1080 or so then "0h well" left some money on the table but protected capital : )
ReplyDeleteOK , Cal
ReplyDeletewave 1 got to 1061.19
lost 13.58
X 78.6% =10.67
1061.19 +10.67=1071.86 = wave (c)-2
Wave (a) yesterday got to 1068.53
which + 54% rebound off the low
at 1061.19
OBV was LOWER on the secondary rally high this AM.
Jay
channel bottom joining (ii) low 992.25 and (iv) low 935, acting as strong support so far, stopped decline yesterday and to day.
ReplyDeletecan't rule out that yesterday's low was iv of (v) of 3. If so, target for 3 =1061.2 +16.8= 1078, unless we break the channel first.
Hi Guys, just to get this straight we didnt bust 1060 and hold so does that mean that the trend dn is still not confirmed. I believe this to be the case however still going to close some of my longs.. Keep all my Div longs however
ReplyDeleteThanks
Joseph
sorry Ravi, saw your comment. You agree that 1061 needs to bust and hold below that level or we still have some possible up move to 1078 approx. Thanks
ReplyDeleteJoseph.
ReplyDeleteI have a Bigger Cycle SELL signal in operation. Unless SPX rallies hard and I mean real hard to the upside, that signal will remains valid.
Just chewing up time before it thrusts down.
btw. just broke the triangle down.
Cal
If we did finish 3 at yesterday's high, the wave 4's 38% retrace is around 1042-43 just above 1039ish wave 1 hi that can not be touched to keep the label intact.
ReplyDeleteThe line joining early July and early Sept lo would be in that area midweek next.
Suppose 4 goes to 1043, then
5=1, at 1043+ 60= 1103
Cal, it is back into triangle. approaching 50 sma resistance on 5 min chart. 1067-1068 should be the top for the hour, if it wants to go down.
ReplyDeletethanks for your update.
at what level your sell signal will not be valid?
Jewish Feast of Trumpets begins ths Sabbath evening at Sundown.
ReplyDeleteDavid
samamehta
ReplyDeleteit's nt based on price level, but taking out and going beyond yesterday's high pivot wouldn't help the bear case or my signal.
Cal
samametha
ReplyDeletewhat chart are you looking at the triangle?
On the 5 min chart , price is just backtesting the bottom of the triangle now.
Cal
I was looking at the 5 min chart from 9:30 onwards. Lookedlike symatrical triangle and broken down but now it has reversed to breakout on the up side.
ReplyDeleteSam
ReplyDeleteyes it has now. That's why I hold a small long position from this morning's post.
Cal
Now top trendline of triangle can act as resitance. If it holds on the 4th touch, it might dive from there.
ReplyDeleteCal
I'm out all longs.
ReplyDeleteCal
Just Bought some Shorts here.
ReplyDeleteCal
cal
ReplyDeletetriangles are continuation patterns and generally break in the direction before it formed. that is up. this still more likely iv of (v) of 3. Thrust up from triangle would be up.
It started at yesterday's top and it has done a, b c, d and should make final touch at e around 1065 before shooting up above 1074.77.
The door is open:
ReplyDelete666 retrace or 1220 new bull.
Cal, what is your stop level here?
ReplyDeleteRav.
ReplyDeleteI've taken into consideration. I see something shorter term.
thanks
Cal
Does anyone know about any anouncements that are percieved important to the market that will be held next week... Also after OPEX shouldnt there be an avg lots of buying?
ReplyDeletestopped out
ReplyDeleteCal
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe triangle:
ReplyDeletea 1074.77 1061.44 -13.33
b 1061.44 1071.29 9.85 73.9% of a
c 1071.29 1064.27 -7.02 52.7% of a
d 1064.27 1069.48 5.21 52.9% of b
e ?? 1069.48 1065.76 -3.72 53.0% c
Triangle still there. Latest up did not break 1071.29, so "e" yet to come:
ReplyDeletea 1074.77 1061.44 -13.33
b 1061.44 1071.29 9.85 73.9% of a
c 1071.29 1064.27 -7.02 52.7% of a
d 1064.27 1070.74 6.47 65.7% of b
e ?? 1070.74 1067.02 -3.72 53.0% c
I'm probing short again
ReplyDeleteCal
jay, how are propen and activity index for the day.
ReplyDeleteLooks LIKE They fell asleep today
ReplyDeleteTypically they sell off NEXT week
AFTER options EXP
today had a 78.6% /13 day cycle at noon, thus the UP TREND after and the NEW moon at 2:44pm
But STILL in a DOWN TREND till the 25th
GET ready to BUY the 25th
SELL at RoshHashanah
BUY at yom Kippur
WAS similar last year but not exact
Oct 9&10 sold off HUGE, but the 13th was the biggest one day rally ever + 104spx pts
SPT 23rd has the BEST potential to SELL OFF to support at levels mentioned by Ravi- and I can see it on Danerics chart
SPX passed the 38% retrace level at 1014, and the 505 level is at 1120 -
Oct7th is looming as a potential TOP
Propens & power index indicated weakness today, and the activity level at 100 has been flat all day.
weekend transits are positive
and seem to be keeping the mkt from selling off-
theres NO buying, but obviosuly no selling pressure either
so we get a stalemate like today
MONDAY
Some mild negatives, but given a release of emotions could act as a catalyst.
TUES
13day cycle low at 10:30am
and could provide the pivot to close higher.
Wed
Has multiple hard aspects and has the potential to develop more selling leading into the 55 tr day cycle days from July8th -10th
FRi
calls for early STRESS
158B @ 10am
28days Aug17
8day LOW
Sun 135 Jupiter at 10;30am
That COMBO should offer the BUY of the MONTH
more later
Jay
Cashed in my shorts
ReplyDeletegood day boys
Cal
are we seeing bearish close or bullish here for Monday? anyone taking the position over the weekend?
ReplyDeletesam
ReplyDeleteIt looks bullish for Monday morning.
A new cycle in my work.
however it COULD move down first but then buy the dip.
aFTER THAT first sign of early weakness and I go short.
Cal
samamehta
ReplyDeletedid you find my posts helpful? Were they easy to follow?
OR
do I talk too much and like to show off?
LOL.
Have a good one bro.
Cal
Cal, your posts are just perfect. thanks for the update.
ReplyDelete