Thursday, September 24, 2009

UPDATE



A drop to spx 1000 by october 2nd
october 2nd is where the rubber meets the road
144 tr days March 9th - Hadiks 29/30 weeks
Hadiks **CLASSIC start of an interm correction** Spt 23rd
where is 30 weeks from today ? = LATE March as ive Already posted b4.
However, once spx 1000 is hit on october 2nd, we should get a SHARP uptrend to oct7th
BACK KISS on a receding trend line
That would be the REAL KISS OF DEATH, and they should sell off in very dramatic fashion
into the NEXT Cycle low on NOV 2nd.

PS
I will be REMOVING ALL OFFENSIVE comments
this forum is meant for the BENEFIT of traders who want somewhere to discuss the latest
market activity -

Personal offensive remarks are not appreciated by anyone
Jay

61 comments:

  1. LETS GET DOWN TO BIZ

    FINALLY- A CHANGE IN TREND
    we got 5 waves DOWn from the HIGH at 2;30 to 3;15

    Which means they should rebound some this morning at the open
    & 180bars at 3;30 ran over to 4pm, thus a SHORT TERM rebound is overdue

    DOW 9918=999=FINAL numerological#
    SPX 1080= 9 Ditto

    Same was seen at
    14,130 adds to 9
    1575 adds to 9

    Todays activity index is at 100 at 9:30, but has been FLAT since midnite at 66

    Propens makes a rebound from 2992 to 3002 early today, then plunges
    to 2991 for tomrrows open

    Power index also allows for some upward motion today as does the astro reading.
    The power index takes a dive later as well

    there are a NUMBER of ccyles converging at close or at tomrrow
    open
    258bars
    39 hours from 17th high
    55 days july10th lo to lo
    moon 90 saturn at 10:16am
    28days Aug17th lo to lo

    Im thinking a 5 -3 -5 OVERALL
    thru october 2nd

    OCTOBER 2nd NOW replaces the BUY I had been considering for SPT 25th
    however, the OPEn for SPT 25th if it follows the scheduled LOW could be bot for a one day trade
    use your best judgement

    Jay

    which matches

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous10:01 AM

    Monday Sept.21 low is key pivot. Break that and trend is unequivocably down till 28th for now.



    Cal

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  3. Anonymous10:06 AM

    Bingo!

    It was inevitable.

    OK. I'm looking for a long scalp setup that lasts perhaps a day.

    Cal

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  4. HI Cal;
    that was 1057.46 and an easy break down today. and as i write this we are at 1056.36

    the next level would be the next previous low on the 14th at 1042.57


    then I think it looks like Spt 8th at 1021

    followed by spt 2nd at 992

    IF SPT 23 is the ACTUAL final PEAK of P2, then any rebound EARLY october should end as a BACK KISS to the receding trend line

    Jay

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  5. Anonymous10:11 AM

    Probing Long. Small position.

    1056 SPX

    caL

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  6. Cal, Yuo might be able to get that SCALP tomrrow, but today seem to be locked into down mode- i could be wrong, but??

    As I posted- several cycles hit at open tomrrow, and the propens index makes a lower low also.
    IT has been on a DOWNSLOPE since the 21st

    Jay

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  7. System is now 50 percent short from
    qqqq 40.20 or spx

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  8. Anonymous10:18 AM

    lol. stopped out. lol. that was for shhits and giggles. will keep trying. why not. My short profits from the 1073-1064 entry level are looking so bloody nice. Will hold those for sure.

    Cal

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  9. CAl
    one more thing yuo might consider TODAY
    204bars HITS at 11am along with the DAILY HOURLY TURN

    Any scalp might have a good shot at 11am.

    right now they are crumbling
    its 10;15am @ 1053.77 - forget about it- lower still

    looks like the FIRST 5 waves will complete by TOMRROW morning at
    1042 or lower to 1021?/

    Jay

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  10. thanks Victor, thats GOOD TO KNOW
    Jay

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  11. Anonymous10:19 AM

    Jay.

    Yeah I know. It's okay. It's paytime now.

    thanks

    Cal

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anonymous10:21 AM

    "playtime now"

    I try again. 1051 SPX

    Cal

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  13. That's 42.20 not 40.20

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  14. sold 2000 SDS at 40.87. Will renter on bounce.

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  15. Jay,
    Wasn't yesterday considered a 2close
    reversal day by Hadik?? Which is
    very bearish?

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  16. Victor
    Hadik needs 1037.3 close on Friday for that

    ReplyDelete
  17. Jeff, Is that a weekly signal you are talking about?? I was referring
    to a daily signal, which is ST bearish, but a WEEKLY signal is INT. term bearish.

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  18. Victor
    he writes that DOw under 9600 by Friday would = 2 close reversal

    Spt 23rd CLASSIC triangle ending

    Exact reverse of march 9th

    Jay

    ReplyDelete
  19. Anonymous10:48 AM

    holding long

    Cal

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  20. Hats off Jay ... you are right on target here.

    ReplyDelete
  21. i 1080.15 1076.93 -3.22
    ii 1076.93 1078.14 1.21 -37.6%
    iii 1078.14 1060.39 -17.75
    iv 1060.39 1066.29 5.9 -50.0%
    v 1066.29 1048.31 -17.98

    (i) 1080.15 1048.31 -31.84


    38.20% 1060.47 12.16
    50% 1064.23 15.92
    61.80% 1067.99 19.68

    ReplyDelete
  22. Anonymous10:58 AM

    1043 is 20-day avg. RSI 14 should hit 50 at about that level if we hit it today/tomorrow. That should produce a bounce.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Correction iv rtrace was 33% not 50% as posted in error earlier

    iv 1060.39 1066.29 5.9 -33.2%

    ReplyDelete
  24. Anonymous11:27 AM

    Jay,
    Just to clarify, in your ABC down pattern, you expect A to conclude this friday, B till September 30th and C till October 2nd?

    Gary

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  25. Victor

    Its the weekly signal for intermediate correction

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  26. wave (ii) rebound pretty weak so far

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  27. Anonymous11:47 AM

    Ravi

    not for long

    Cal

    ReplyDelete
  28. Anonymous12:00 PM

    Lunch time at GS. $TRIN

    ReplyDelete
  29. I am with you Cal. i am long now at 1051.

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  30. Anonymous12:22 PM

    Acceleration up might be coming any moment now.

    Cal

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  31. Cal,
    What level are you long from??

    ReplyDelete
  32. Alternate to prior count posted:

    i 1080.15 1060.39 -19.76
    ii 1060.39 1066.29 5.9 29.9%
    iii 1066.29 1048.31 -17.98 91.0%
    iv ? 1048.31 1053.57 5.26 29.3%
    v ? 1053.57 1037.21 -16.36 91.0%

    ReplyDelete
  33. Anonymous12:51 PM

    SPX needs a kick in the azz.


    Cal

    ReplyDelete
  34. Anonymous12:52 PM

    Anonymous said...
    "playtime now"

    I try again. 1051 SPX

    Cal

    10:21 AM

    ReplyDelete
  35. A very bearish, less likely, count is (i) to 1060ish (ii) to 1066 ish, i to 1048, ii to 1053

    and iii of 9 (iii) dead ahead.

    ReplyDelete
  36. I am stopped out cal. wait until 1040 for the bounce.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Anonymous1:51 PM

    still short from 63.7,no real pullback on the cards for today i fancy so im holding short until at least the am.hope everybody who got burnt on the way up is grabbin some back here.i dont fancy this wave ending until the previous swing low around 1030,then wave 4 with a small 5 to go.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Anonymous2:13 PM

    jay ,ive re labeled my delta count following yesterdays high,for the short term and the medium term correlates lovely with your early november low.hopefully this dodgy period is over and done for.

    ReplyDelete
  39. I am long at 1046.

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  40. Today is the first of six of those mysterious "liquidity days" that Zero Hedge reported on a few days back, where $30-35 billion will be freed up per week. Any thoughts

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  41. The move down from 1053.57 hi seems to be morphing into something like a ending diagonal v, without clear wedge shape. One lower low just below 1045.85 should complete this.

    ReplyDelete
  42. CAl - Anon - Sam
    I realize I was WAY AHEAD of the GAME and Called the END of the UpTrend TOO SOON,

    But that DOESNT rule OUT a PLAYABLE LOW TOMRROW at 10am as a SHORt TERM BUy good till PROBABLY 3pm.


    Gary & others
    I dont know how to clearly label the waves
    BUT
    I think its going to be LOW at open tomrrow = wve 3

    high at 3pm wve 4
    Further LOW Monday last hour
    = 5 waves
    Rebound on Tues and WEd AM = {B}
    wave
    Later on WEd and Friday Last hour or near to it 2;45 typically
    for {C}

    Thus we get the 5 down
    3 up
    5 down to october 2nd

    Hell of a rally to OCT 7th, and this time ITS NOT GOING TO CHANGE

    I was TOO early b4.
    23rd
    MIDNITE HIGH TIDE
    EQUINOX
    Feb day
    ALL IN ONE

    Jay
    I'll start a new thread

    ReplyDelete
  43. Anonymous3:22 PM

    taking my small profit now

    Cal

    ReplyDelete
  44. Anonymous3:26 PM

    that was the small long I had earlier.

    nice pick sam at 1046

    If a lower low tomorrow morning I will buy the morning panic flush and load up the truck heavily long.

    If today was a bottom, I look for adding shorts early tomorrow for the next swan dive.

    Cal

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  45. People,
    PLEASE don't forget about QUARTER
    end window dressing. May not happen
    till Monday but it WILL happen.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Cal,
    Way to go. Nice TRADING.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Anonymous3:39 PM

    Victor
    thanks man.

    Jay
    thanks for the update. That almost sounded like an apology. No need to. I'm here for opinion, not holding hands. right? I trade my system , same as you and the rest.

    I'm accountable to myself.

    Cal

    ReplyDelete
  48. I am out of long for 4 ppoint gain. got stopped out.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Cal this is confusing:
    'If a lower low tomorrow morning I will buy the morning panic flush and load up the truck heavily long.

    If today was a bottom, I look for adding shorts early tomorrow for the next swan dive.'

    could you please elaborate little more. Thanks for your post.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Anonymous3:45 PM

    hey jay, hell of a rally from 10/2 to 10/7

    you think new high by 10/7?

    thanks
    aymon

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  51. I think this can go 1055 or even 1059 and then pull back to 1040. For Jay's buy call to happen tomorrow. If it crosses 1060-1062 then watch out 1100-1120 is written all over it.

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  52. I think I'll swap my faz for faz tommorrow morning Alex's chart says we go up next week I've ignored it at my peril before....

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Q9FmRy5wUIs/Srp-9q6Cf5I/AAAAAAAAA74/DyMhqVl10VQ/s1600-h/ES+Forecast+Both.bmp

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  53. AYMAN
    Oct 7th
    BACK KISS on RECEDING TREND LINE

    KISS OF DEATH

    Dont you read the blog and threads?

    Jay

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  54. Here is Chris Carolan's Solar Lunar model it also shows a move up starting Monday up into Oct. 5th

    http://carolan.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/090909solsum.gif

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  55. rrman, I did get that. Look at RIMM A/H

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  56. faz to fas i meant to say...Yeah Jay I read em and I'm going to be prepared to get out of my fas monday if need be.... ;-)

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  57. Wow your right about rimm.....I just have this feeling that the Fed is pumping the dollar during this G20 meeting to keep the heat off from the other countries while they are drinking and partying with them and then next week it makes a move back down (((shruggs)))

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  58. RRman
    Those who follow lunar model are
    "looney"....Forget about it. Just
    follow the TREND. It IS your friend.
    Peace RRman

    ReplyDelete
  59. Vs system still short QQQQ from 42.20
    or spx 1056, 50 percent position.
    First target 42.59.

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  60. First target 41.59 QQQQ not 42.59.
    Sorry. Long Day.

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  61. We likely finished five waves at bottom today from top yesterday. The iv was confusing and the v was very small. A three wave correction should be the business tomorrow. I will be surprised to see a drop into a new low at 10 AM.

    Out of short position with good profit. No position now.

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