Looks like wave {B} came today rather than tomrrow1080 - 1041 = 39
39 x 62% = 24 + 1041 = 1065
MERC direct starts at 9am tomrrow
Has been RETRO since Spt 6th all the way up -
MANY times mkts change direction on or near Merc Retro or Direct
39X 1.618 = 65
1065 - 65 = 1000
Remember we discussed 1040 and 1000 as important levels
so far we got 5 waves down to 1040 = wave {A}
and 3 waves up to 1065 =wave {B}
NEXT is 5 waves DOWN to OCT 1st at spx1000 = wave {C}
THE PIVOT and BUY is on Oct 2nd at 10am
Jay
Jay nice chart and post. But there is an alternate also to high for V. Tomorrow, in globex it should reveal where are we headed.
ReplyDeleteJay,
ReplyDeleteif we drop down to 1000, it is very hard to get to a new high for Oct 12. Time is to short for a new high between Oct 2 and 12.
Anyways, what is the reason behind the change in prediction given that originally you were looking at a big day Mon and then a high into mid day Wed? ANd it did happen as you predicted it would. Is it because we did not have a washout on Fri?
Jay are u saying we go down tomorrow? I bought the close since internals were very strong. I'm looking for another rally tomorrow hopefully.
ReplyDeletety
Arak
ReplyDeleteSimple answer to your question
is YES.
I think Ive mixed up Mon/Tues
Lets see what today brings
according to my power & propens indexes we should see a strong sell off today
one of my assoc on a yahoo group has today as a turn, and I think Ian has it at 10am
UNDER ELLIOTT rules
a DECLINe that BEGINS with 5 waves
SUCH as Spt 23 @ 1080 to 1041 on friday
IS NEVER THE END OF THE CORRECTIOn
Stress *** NEVER ***'
THUS one MUST conclude that MORE
is yet to come
Then add in the 144 tr day cycle due to hit on THSDAY & Friday, we must conclude a LOW at that time
Then using MATH model as previoulsy desribed, we then should be looking for spx 1000
remember we discussed 1040 as a critical level which it has become as the LOW OF a 5 WAVE move
be wave 1 or wave A, it matters not how we label it.
NOW, since 1040 critical support, was that wave, then using math we can then extrapolate the low as I have already done, getting us to spx 1000
IF yesterday was ALL of wave B,
then Today should set up the next downleg- wave {i} of C
more later
Jay
This is sure setting up for a strange looking selloff.
ReplyDeletetook half profit at 1067 SPX
ReplyDeleteOther half rides free
Cal
Jay
ReplyDeleteI quote you:
UNDER ELLIOTT rules
a DECLINe that BEGINS with 5 waves
SUCH as Spt 23 @ 1080 to 1041 on friday
IS NEVER THE END OF THE CORRECTIOn
Stress *** NEVER ***'
This is not quite true. If you have extended a, b, c correction, b can be a nominal hi and c can be five waves. Other than that, you are right. But, that is not never.
Reporting real time trade .. short 1065 ahead of consume confidence, real time reported on twitter. Some anon was complaining the last time about me not reporting trades.
ReplyDeleteOut 2nd half at 1062
ReplyDeleteCal
EWI and Kenny have wave (i) low at 1045.85 on sept 24, unlike DanEric count that you posted at the top of this thread
ReplyDeleteIf so, we had an extended a, b, c for (ii)that was a 5-3-5 affair with b low at 1041.17.
If 1041.17 was bottom of five waves down from 1080, then that would have to be labeled (iv) now, since we did a clear five up from there.
So, it is a matter of extended a, b, c correction or not.
Jay
ReplyDeleteDoes your work support 10 AM top?
I think we have seen the top of the week.
ReplyDeleteLooks like quarter end window dressing is over.
ReplyDeleteI'm 50 percent short QQQQ from 42.20
ReplyDelete10am =39 hours lo to hi from
ReplyDeleteSpt21st at 10am
Next 39 hours cycle take us to oct 7that 10am
which is ALSO 18days or 3 x 39 hrs from 9/11 at 10am HI TO HI
Oct2nd at 10am convergence
21 days from Spt 2nd low to low @ 10am
34 days from Aug17th at 10am lo to lo
TODAY from 10am HI
wave 1 down to 10:05
ABC from there to 10;45
Now should be starting wave 3 down and that should break out into 5 waves
Oct 1st & 2nd are related by FIBO to March 9th & nov 20th LOW TO LOW
Jay
A break below qqqq 41.94 should
ReplyDeleteaccelerate the decline, and I will add to short position.
we may see lower high at around 1 PM. then it is downward this week.
ReplyDeleteVolume declining .. where are the sellers?
ReplyDeleteI am long for a day trade. here from EVIL SPECULATOR BLOG:
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile those crazy equities are painting some wild swings this morning - seems like I’m not the only one who’s confused. But let’s not fool ourselves - we all know where this is going. In the past few months - whenever the tape looked completely fragmented and out of kilter the eventual path was to the upside. As you all know I’m as short as a midget in a limbo contest but that’s a long term stance. Short term I think that we need to keep expecting highe highs unless the market proves to us that it can take us longer. And that, my dear ratlings - has not yet happened. None of the fancy bearish thresholds I pointed out yesterday has so much as being touched - so right now all we have are hopes and dreams while the market continues to disappoint, discourage, and slaughter one bear after the other
ALSO iAN IS LOOKING FOR HIGH AROUND 12:45 AND 1:50 pm TODAY. i THINK WE SEE 1074 SPX
I agree Sam i think we close up 20 pts today and tommorrow then the short trade starts i'm long fas as of this morning 86.5 underwater now but my leading indicator fdx stoches show us going up
ReplyDeleteWas that 5 waves down from 10am to 11:45?
ReplyDeleteMaking wave 2 at 1pm??
Jay
good day all,double size short from here at 64.0,stop 67 just in case. abreach of that level and im reversing long.
ReplyDeletestopped out of long for three point profit.
ReplyDeletecal, where do you stand here?
took 2pts.wait and watch again.
ReplyDeleteI think we see new high. am all cash except LT etfs.
ReplyDeletejay, is there a way to receive the comment on rss feed - cell phone, if yes what is the address
ReplyDeletecould we say that 1080 -1041 was wave 4 and wave 5 is playing now.
ReplyDelete1 of 5 to 1069
and two in progress -- may be to 62% say 1048-1050
and then wave 3 of 5 to new high to 1098-1100
w4 of 5 to 1080
w 5 of 5 1120?
jay your date of october 1 for wave 3 may fit here for new high.
Or as Cal says we tank from here.
Suman
ReplyDeleteThis is the ONLY place I post
online or anywhere
Jay
From 1pm to close it looks like a meagaphone
should open HIGHER once more
testing
ReplyDeleteCal
I'm not sure about Wednesday Jay, but I bet the government spins the news to confuse the market. Hence... a doji day to close out the month and quarter.
ReplyDeleteHowever, it could have some wild swings up and down? After that, I think Thursday and Friday will be down, and then back up next week for one last hooray for the bulls!