What I will be looking at for the next 50 minutes. It looks like we will make another attempt at the hourly 13-EMA. Last three touches gave us long tails showing the strength of this move. Not sure we get it this time. A break of the hourly 13-EMA will also bust us out of the 15-minute BBs.
Another long tail on the hourly. 15-minute charts starting to turn back up. It does not appear to be a sell off today. Bears need to step it up if they do not want a blow off top this afternoon.
30-minute BBs as pinched as they have been in 6-weeks. Last time they were this pinched we got a 70 point move in the SPX in a little over 2 weeks.
I think very risky to short here...they may gun for stops near 1070 or above and squeeze it higher before they finally take it down. I see alot of traders positioning that way. Tape looks set up for at least a morning pop Monday if not later this afternoon. This pattern has worked over 80% of the time to the upside and tick is mostly positive all day...scaling long here instead for a scalp.
CBNC earlier quoted Robert Prechter as saying the dollar has topped. If that's true, that was a stupid thing to say to the public, especially when your a bear.
FROM FLASH: hE HAS BEEN MORE CLEARER LATELY. EASY TO UNDERSTAND. THANKS FLASH, IF YOU READ THIS @tradethecycles for the SPX it's a bearish reversal holding right now at 1071 as well; VIX collapse has muddled the water a bit today about 5 hours ago from web in reply to tradethecycles
More later, back to the jiggles ! MKT: stinky low volume, pinched bollinger bands; gonna break-out about 1 hour ago from web
Just to reiterate. I am not posting every system signal generated and concomitantly every trade. Just when I have time or feel compelled to do so. OR on request...sometimes.
So I apologize if I don't respond to every request.I hope you understand.
chart FROM Market THOUGHTS
What I will be looking at for the next 50 minutes. It looks like we will make another attempt at the hourly 13-EMA. Last three touches gave us long tails showing the strength of this move. Not sure we get it this time. A break of the hourly 13-EMA will also bust us out of the 15-minute BBs.
ReplyDeletestockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&i=p47751310726&a=169188602&r=6383
-dmo
Cal, we iss you here. hope to hear from you. are you flat or invested bull/bear?
ReplyDeleteAnother long tail on the hourly. 15-minute charts starting to turn back up. It does not appear to be a sell off today. Bears need to step it up if they do not want a blow off top this afternoon.
ReplyDelete30-minute BBs as pinched as they have been in 6-weeks. Last time they were this pinched we got a 70 point move in the SPX in a little over 2 weeks.
I'm out...taking my lumps. No point shorting this market. It looks like it's setting up for a blowoff before any pullback.
ReplyDeleteptg
shorters short here with 2pt stop.a break above the 11.30 high and long with a 3pt stop.hold either until close...
ReplyDeleteThe buying of treasuries is key, 30 Yr. The yield, $TYX, has double topped, 1 minute.
ReplyDeleteI think very risky to short here...they may gun for stops near 1070 or above and squeeze it higher before they finally take it down. I see alot of traders positioning that way. Tape looks set up for at least a morning pop Monday if not later this afternoon. This pattern has worked over 80% of the time to the upside and tick is mostly positive all day...scaling long here instead for a scalp.
ReplyDeleteptg
This manic market is setting up for one last thrust up before we go down...imho
ReplyDeletex
Going back 6-months I can not find the 30-min BBs more pinched on the SPX then they are right now. A spread of 4.92!!!!
ReplyDeleteWe are going to get a monster move out of this.
-dmo
Keep in mind that Monday is Columbus day. Light volume holidays almost always go up. If we pullback, it could be Tuesday or Wednesday.
ReplyDeletex
Long ST 1067.1 SPX
ReplyDeletemental stop
If this continues to flat line into close, buying an SPX October OTM Straddle should produce great returns next week.
ReplyDelete109 calls/105 puts
-dmo
Love it...let's see how far they rally this.
ReplyDeleteptg
good call Cal. welcome back
ReplyDelete"Lower on Monday" is code word for go fully long the whole week lol
ReplyDeleteCBNC earlier quoted Robert Prechter as saying the dollar has topped. If that's true, that was a stupid thing to say to the public, especially when your a bear.
ReplyDeleteInteresting.
ReplyDeleteWith the BBs that pinched and also taking out yesterday's high we should have a much more significant move here.
This doesn't smell right.
Near the highs and TRIN keeps moving up.
ReplyDeleteNew 52-week highs contracting from yesterday.
-dmo
FROM FLASH: hE HAS BEEN MORE CLEARER LATELY. EASY TO UNDERSTAND. THANKS FLASH, IF YOU READ THIS
ReplyDelete@tradethecycles for the SPX it's a bearish reversal holding right now at 1071 as well; VIX collapse has muddled the water a bit today
about 5 hours ago from web in reply to tradethecycles
More later, back to the jiggles ! MKT: stinky low volume, pinched bollinger bands; gonna break-out
about 1 hour ago from web
Bulls need to do something here.
ReplyDeleteFake poke above the top BB and yesterday's high:
stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=30&b=5&g=0&i=t65073681210&r=7920
They had every opportunity to run this if they wanted to, tripping stops and closing at a new 52-week closing high. This is toast next week.
-dmo
Out 1071 SPX
ReplyDeletegood enough for a scalp
4 pts
Sam.
ReplyDeleteJust to reiterate. I am not posting every system signal generated and concomitantly every trade. Just when I have time or feel compelled to do so. OR on request...sometimes.
So I apologize if I don't respond to every request.I hope you understand.
Have a good weekend.
Short ES 1068 into the close. Will close 1/2 position for a few points on sunday night and left the other 1/2 ride with a stop at ES 1076.25
ReplyDeleteCal, thanks anyway. if you blog or twitter and post the trade there, please let me know. you too have a nice weekend.
ReplyDeleteLowest volume non-holiday week on the S&P since the March lows and the only week in which every day was green.
ReplyDelete-dmo
On analyzing volume of ES, I think the setup is for a gap up on Monday. Will close shorts on Sunday night depending on action.
ReplyDeleteFully short at the close...why not. I'm probably wrong though since I'm a bit stubborn.
ReplyDeleteptg
System says hold 100 percent Short,
ReplyDeleteso I did, from 42.06 QQQQ or 1057
SPX.