morning all,hope you had good weekends.looking to get long here soon.provisionally hoping for a high around 11,which could be the high for the day.that 2 oclock low ties in with my ideas for a low as well.
We need to keep our heads on straight and the input is very insightful
THe tide has NOT turned, and probably wont until the 24th, but IN THE MEANTIME, we still seem to be locked into that ELLIPSE with resist at 1119 & support at 1085
The break out on the 9th was at 1070, and its been mentioned it a few times
A high did occur on the full moon on DEC 2nd and now we are approaching a new moon on Wed.
Today is working toward a 10am high at this writing, but so far has fallen quite short of the potential indicated by the pre open futures
FOMC is 15/16 ... so rally should come into the 16th 2:15pm
There is another thing I have noticed. The mkt never goes down when banks want to raise money. The last time it happened was in Jun when they kept it around SPX950. This time BAC is done, but C needs to raise $18B. They mkt will drop only when C is done raising.
And in between we have FOMC setting the stage for a crude/commods rebound based on dollar weakness. So 21-23 could be the C raise. I'm betting it would be 21 or 22.
I have stopped trading this crappy chop zone. Not worth the aggravation.
Market is setting up for powerful breakout. We are holding above 1110 which is bad news for the bears. Tomorrow should be trend up the way its looking.
Deja vu Opex Monday, albeit with less upward momentum than the November one. And we were also making this same slow ending move to the 1113 top on 16 Nov!
From an EW perspective, it seems to me that we are trying to finish the 5th wave of the wave 1 up, with a possible target of 1117. This may be followed by a wave 2 correction back to around 1100. Jay, does this seem like a possible scenario, with a wave 2 low either late today or some time tomorrow, with a possible wave 3 up on Wednesday? Thanks very much for your thoughts, much appreciated!
Did u mean strong reaction up jay? Seems like we're breaking out to start a new rally today. I switched to long earlier. Shorting this market is foolish.
Do you have the same feeling, I do? The Regan Administration's PTT is being exercised every day, authorized by Obama. Intended to alleviate a crash only. Not a fair playing field, here.
COY thanks for picking up the slack I was out most of the day
As I mentioned, that DIP could have started today, and if not it was unclear if the 16th would then provide that pivot low at 2pm, but SINCE Nothing occurred today, we must be suspect for the above
I still have the 22/23rd as a strong TURN lower into the 28th
WOW, I did not know you had a blog, wish you would of mentioned it to me!!
ReplyDeleteI added you to my favorite blog list!!!
Michael
So we're still in a downtrend til Monday right? So are u covering your shorts at 10:27am? Wow such accuracy.
ReplyDeleteI guess we can forget about that gap-down some were expecting. It is up up and away.
ReplyDeletepeter
well don't forget we went down to 1067 the night Dubai came out and we recovered might be just the opposite
ReplyDeleteFlasfusion's SIMON just got ass-reamed tonight. So much for that. Can't trust that guy ever again!
ReplyDeletesam
Fut's ain't stopping yet. Looks like a runaway train. Whoever was short is really in deep dooodoo. I wish I could say I was long but not to be.
ReplyDeleteMan.
mortie
thanks Michael
ReplyDeleteAppreciate the link
Jay
Jay, whats your thoughts after this ramp? Gap fill back to around 1101 ish by 3pm then ramp back up for rest of week?
ReplyDeletemonkeys pumping futures
ReplyDeleteGS & AAPL are red
morning all,hope you had good weekends.looking to get long here soon.provisionally hoping for a high around 11,which could be the high for the day.that 2 oclock low ties in with my ideas for a low as well.
ReplyDeleteWelcome # 85 & 86
ReplyDeleteI think it was TO & Michael
and thanks for the great commentary
We need to keep our heads on straight and the input is very insightful
THe tide has NOT turned, and probably wont until the 24th, but IN THE MEANTIME, we still seem to be locked into that ELLIPSE with resist at 1119 & support at 1085
The break out on the 9th was at 1070, and its been mentioned it a few times
A high did occur on the full moon
on DEC 2nd and now we are approaching a new moon on Wed.
Today is working toward a 10am high at this writing, but so far has fallen quite short of the potential indicated by the pre open futures
Jay
Arak
ReplyDeleteas usual - tomrrow is another fed day so we should see a positive trend till 2;15pm Tuesday
Jay
Here are de-lever points on two issues:
ReplyDeleteDIA: 10,186
AAPL: 183.6 (97.3% chance by friday)
We the recent pump of the futures by the monkeys overnight we've got a 1-2-3 pump n dump for the week.
I think BULLS in serious trouble here.
ReplyDeleteI'm ignoring Jay's ebnergy chart because I don't think there is anyway in poopersville we're going to a 22nd high.
bob
Jay,
ReplyDeleteFOMC is 15/16 ... so rally should come into the 16th 2:15pm
There is another thing I have noticed. The mkt never goes down when banks want to raise money. The last time it happened was in Jun when they kept it around SPX950. This time BAC is done, but C needs to raise $18B. They mkt will drop only when C is done raising.
And in between we have FOMC setting the stage for a crude/commods rebound based on dollar weakness. So 21-23 could be the C raise. I'm betting it would be 21 or 22.
I have stopped trading this crappy chop zone. Not worth the aggravation.
chart is upside down ?
ReplyDeletechart is upside down ?
ReplyDeleteWFC is the next to raise money. God knows when this will happen.
ReplyDeleteMarket is setting up for powerful breakout. We are holding above 1110 which is bad news for the bears. Tomorrow should be trend up the way its looking.
ReplyDeleteDeja vu Opex Monday, albeit with less upward momentum than the November one. And we were also making this same slow ending move to the 1113 top on 16 Nov!
ReplyDeleteFrom an EW perspective, it seems to me that we are trying to finish the 5th wave of the wave 1 up, with a possible target of 1117. This may be followed by a wave 2 correction back to around 1100. Jay, does this seem like a possible scenario, with a wave 2 low either late today or some time tomorrow, with a possible wave 3 up on Wednesday? Thanks very much for your thoughts, much appreciated!
Hi Jay,
ReplyDeleteIs this still looking like a low today ? What are you seeing for the charts today ?
Jay, What do you see for gold and silver? Any numbers?
ReplyDeleteHarry
This Monday could be different. After the high hit of 13:11, let's see what happens.
ReplyDeleteCoy
Did u mean strong reaction up jay? Seems like we're breaking out to start a new rally today. I switched to long earlier. Shorting this market is foolish.
ReplyDeletex
thanks Coy
ReplyDeletezigzag's T chart is interesting
ReplyDeletehttp://dl.dropbox.com/u/312885/Screen%20shot%202009-12-14%20at%208.50.20%20AM.png
Coy - can you elaborate on what you are seeing for today and tomorrow ?
ReplyDeleteHigh hit 16 min late, shallow as usual, but recognizable. I think we're going down!
ReplyDeleteI didn't finish that:
ReplyDeleteI think we're going down into the close.
AS,
ReplyDeleteYes, I will for tomorrow. Give me an hour to consult my crystal ball.
Coy
Something wrong here. We hit a wall. Bulls beware. It's a TRAP.
ReplyDeletesusan
Good sign. Met resistance at the high hit, now retracting.
ReplyDeleteAS,
ReplyDeleteMy work indicates we close down tomorrow. I'll take another reading later. I don't like it when I oppose Jay's chart.
Coy
In the EW point of view i agree with coy.
ReplyDeleteWe have completed wave 1 move up from 1085 to 1114.
either tmrw and the day after would be wave 2 down.
Thanks Coy / Linton .... so based on EW what would be possible tgt for wave ii ?
ReplyDeleteMy non-Elliott platform is unchanging. Indicates closing down with possible open up. Good to know that Elliott agrees.
ReplyDeleteI have a low hit at 15:56. We'll see if that has any impact on this sideways market.
Coy
So as not to confuse: In my last post, upper paragraph is for tomorrow. 2nd for today.
ReplyDeleteDo you have the same feeling, I do?
ReplyDeleteThe Regan Administration's PTT is being exercised every day, authorized by Obama. Intended to alleviate a crash only. Not a fair playing field, here.
Don't be fooled by the permabears. Remember Oct.5th where the market went up 9 days straight. We're only on day 4. Breakout is confirmed.
ReplyDeleteper my morning post we have a 1-2-3 gap pump n dump
ReplyDelete3 gaps in a row (SPY)
Thurs: 7 pts
Fri: 4.7 pts
Mon: 7.6 pts
Total Gap pts: 19.3
Total move in SPY from Wed. close to Mon. close 111.87 - 110.02 = 18.5 pts
COY
ReplyDeletethanks for picking up the slack
I was out most of the day
As I mentioned, that DIP could have started today, and if not it was unclear if the 16th would then provide that pivot low at 2pm, but SINCE Nothing occurred today, we must be suspect for the above
I still have the 22/23rd as a strong TURN lower into the 28th
Jay
to,
ReplyDeleteUsing your figures, that's only 1.85 points.
But relates to 18.5 points in the SPX. Is that what your saying?
ReplyDeleteYour welcome, Jay. And thanks for that update.
ReplyDeleteCoy
On cue WFC announced secondaries after the close today. The crooks are getting predictable.
ReplyDeleteCommitment of traders reported at MINUS 19% equaling MARCH 09 at its lows
ReplyDeleteJust what that mean for price levels ??
IT Should mean a sell off, but so far its NOT there
The PROPENS index rose from lows of 1985 to 3015 indicating higher still at least for Tuesday morning
Its NOT complete yet for the whole day, so I cant comment on the close
Activity index rose today from 66 during the night to 200 during the day and at 7pm has dropped back to 66
power index also rose today, but drops off tomorrow- but nothing dramatic. from 400 to 300
ditto for 16th
Whats LEAST expected ?
last week bullish sentiment was reported
and so far we remain locked
the new moon is the only mover this week and its at 7am Wed-
which could be providing support, and once past, it might let out some hot air??
Jay