Dipuk, I will certainly ask. am too interested. from other good TA people i have heard we see 1200+- soon by jan and see correction by end of march 10 -20%
I have revised my cycle outlook below, I am just reiterating that I believe we are having the last 8 wk cycle rally that should taper off this week and sell from Jan 4th or perhaps a few days into January. The next 6-7 weeks should see one of the sharpest corrections in the US history.
I have an initial target to 1050, but probably to low 1000s and perhaps even lower. I am the only and most bearish guy on this board, so you might want to take this outlook with a grain of salt. I have taken my short positions as of last week and I have sold some time premium in options for the next week to gain myself enough buffer in case we push substantially higher to suck in everyone --this is the way I see. The outlook will not change much for the Q1'10 though, but the downside targets may have to be revised up a bit, if we do not start selling earnest in January. This is the risk of being an early bear with a fake-out assumption...
Now I would like to attract your attention to MACD curves on the bottom chart. As I referenced earlier about the cycle spectrum I am following [ref: 1], I used the 21 and 43 day shorter cycle periods to measure the acceleration. You can see the intensity of the impulse at the March low and then the slower take off from the July low and finally the very sluggish impulse from the Nov low. I see the major breadth cycle low as Nov 21, 2008, so we should be already in the last phase of this longer term upside. Now we are headed in my measures to 64 wk cycle low around the middle of February and exhausted all of the cycles above 4 weeks in period...
@samamehta thx for asking; need to see 1/31 & about 1/10/10 before lookin much into Q1; DOW could bounce dn or go str to 10,800 ish about 10 hours ago from web in reply to samamehta
mostpeople are still on holiday and teh Jews are celabrating Chanukha so even they might not pull the trigger just yet. And we know tey are extremely influential in the market place.
mortie, It's no secret that the Jews want to take control of the global financial system. You have to remember that they still live and operate under the Old Covenant and that they still feel entitled to own everything on this earth. Afterall it was promised to them as a birthright blessing. So the rumors are true that there is a Zionist conspiracy. They will evade this publicly but in reality it is a very well known fact that it is their goal and religious belief. They have also managed to convince their western allies in particular the United States that they are the lost ten tribes of Israel so that in reality they are brothers and also partakers of the birthright blessings of Israel. Ofcourse if you're a Freemason you already knew this centuries ago. They also believe Queen Elibeth sits on the throne of David.
Why are the most beautiful actresses in Hollywood all Jews. Natalie Portman, Rachel Weisz, Gwenyth Paltrow, and converting to Judaism....Madonna, Kiera Knightly. How can you hate an enemy where their woman are so damn HOT!
Cycles: 8 Day Cycle Top Due Dec 29 +/-, 8 Day Cycle Low Due Dec 31 on Full Moon
Looking for a top either today or tomorrow and then down into the end of the year. Market vulnerable to big sell-off in early 2010, wave B of ABC up move. Higher highs later in the summer 2010.
Hello All: I personally think we are approaching a top with QQQQ around 47 ( daily Fib Sequences )... I do think there is more upside here... I use 10-day Put/Call ratios to determine some tops and bottoms. Today OEX Put/Call is over 2 and CBOE is around .58.... 10-days are not at extremes ( over the last 12 months ), but I am watching these closely. If a high OEX Put/Call and a low CBOE Put/Call lasts the next three days it should be enough to warrant a sell signal... I also want to see some more negative divergences in the internals as well as increased NASDAQ volume and decrease in NYSE...
i 1093.88 1101.37 7.49 ii 1101.37 1098.21 -3.16 42.2% iii 1098.21 1120.27 22.06 2.95 of i iv 1120.27 1116.00 -4.27 19.4% v 1116.00 1130.38 14.38 1.92 of i
I was being facetious about the "hating the enemy" part. Personally I don't hate anyone. I have Jewish and Arab friends. I've studied the Torah and know the religious system quite well. I am also a student of the bible and know what christian organization has fallen off the beaten path. As an American I will concede that my government doesn't blow people up either but they are sure as heck making peoples lives very difficult to live. I just wonder when the next Revolutionary or Civil war breaks out. I think we forget sometimes that the bloodiest, most vicious war America ever fought was amongst ourselves. Over 400000 dead. Soldiers fell by the thousands in a single battle. Not too many movies made about the scale of bloodletting of our little war. I know the Arabs and Jews once lived in peace and harmony until someone made life very difficult for the other and the hatred built up to a point where the killing began. Nobody kills without a cause. Not us , not them. There's always a reason.
I'm thinking this up wave lasts until around 2pm eastern looks like we're not going to make the big down move today looks like I'll go short around 2pm and hold overnight think we get the big down tomorrow now
Changed my mind on the count. Today's hi was more likely i of (iii) from 1093.88 bottom. We are i process of completing ii of (iii). So, iii of (iii) up may be dead ahead.
this rally looks like it may have some more follow through tomorrow. Maybe a Gap-up. I guess mornibg futures will confirm. Nice call on the 21 hour cycle Y.
Are you short, shorting, shorting overnight? Anyway see you tomorrow, hopefully.
Excellent Jay. Love these maps!
ReplyDeleteHappy Holidays to you and yours!
Sally
Jay: To be really informative, please show the 'original' as compared to this current graph.
ReplyDeleteThx
jj
Inspirational
ReplyDeletehttp://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5625548517080716077#
ty
Jay, the chart you posted Christmas Eve...how do you pull that up in TOS?
ReplyDeleteSAMAMEHTA:
ReplyDeleteWould you please ask FlashFusion when Simon thinks the Low is in for 2010?
I know you speak with him from time to time and he is good too like Jay.
thanks
dipuk
Dipuk, I will certainly ask. am too interested. from other good TA people i have heard we see 1200+- soon by jan and see correction by end of march 10 -20%
ReplyDeleteGap UP
ReplyDeletezzt
If Ben keeps the printing presses going , SPX could go to 1500 and beyond , and even another 200% ( M.Faber 28 Dec)
ReplyDeleteI have revised my cycle outlook below, I am just reiterating that I believe we are having the last 8 wk cycle rally that should taper off this week and sell from Jan 4th or perhaps a few days into January. The next 6-7 weeks should see one of the sharpest corrections in the US history.
ReplyDeleteI have an initial target to 1050, but probably to low 1000s and perhaps even lower. I am the only and most bearish guy on this board, so you might want to take this outlook with a grain of salt. I have taken my short positions as of last week and I have sold some time premium in options for the next week to gain myself enough buffer in case we push substantially higher to suck in everyone --this is the way I see. The outlook will not change much for the Q1'10 though, but the downside targets may have to be revised up a bit, if we do not start selling earnest in January. This is the risk of being an early bear with a fake-out assumption...
Now I would like to attract your attention to MACD curves on the bottom chart. As I referenced earlier about the cycle spectrum I am following [ref: 1], I used the 21 and 43 day shorter cycle periods to measure the acceleration. You can see the intensity of the impulse at the March low and then the slower take off from the July low and finally the very sluggish impulse from the Nov low. I see the major breadth cycle low as Nov 21, 2008, so we should be already in the last phase of this longer term upside. Now we are headed in my measures to 64 wk cycle low around the middle of February and exhausted all of the cycles above 4 weeks in period...
arbman
jj
ReplyDeletePrevious chart for Dec can be found on a previous post which you can link to as [December 2009]
rrman
are you referring to the chart from COLUMBIA?
if so, then use the link to his site and scroll down to find that chart
I use Vista which has a SNIP app
and I can take any page or photo and post it at the blog.
Jay
FYI
ReplyDelete@samamehta thx for asking; need to see 1/31 & about 1/10/10 before lookin much into Q1; DOW could bounce dn or go str to 10,800 ish
about 10 hours ago from web in reply to samamehta
sam
Here we go!!
ReplyDeleteJay....Here's to a New Year awaiting us..,,Let's make some serious money my friend.
Luke
rrman
ReplyDeleteare u still short?
ppk
Jay - how does the gap up today fit into the projections you have for Dec ?
ReplyDeleteAS
1129 >>>
ReplyDeletex
Coy
ReplyDeletewhere are you? Any opinion today?
thanks
joe
1130 >>>>
ReplyDeletex
Hey where's Ravi, Victor, Samamehta, After8, Caltek, reddragonleo, etc
ReplyDeleteWhat say you all?
Let's make Jay's blog the best on the web for 2010!
Kathy
yep still short...
ReplyDeleteTop might be in right now.
ReplyDeleteptg
1116 to 1127 should be the trading range today...
ReplyDeleteI say Jay's map is right and the market puppet masters will take profits while everyone is thinking that no way they will do it until after NewYear.
ReplyDeleteWe're in a new market paradigm now where the market will take advantage of every false market assumption to take profits ahead of everyone else.
The chinese are daytrading now and those boys are exceedingly nasty.
bill
thanks rrman
ReplyDeleteppk
added some more shorts at 1125
ReplyDeleterrman
ReplyDeleteokay , me too
let's start this decline now. tank market tank.
ppk
I'm short!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeletey
Is the real "y" short??????
ReplyDeleteHe/she has been logging in lately.
I just bought some PUTS. I expect to hit a tarfet of 1120 just after Newyear.
ReplyDeletesimples
Spratman
ReplyDeleteY has beeb logging in lately. I think this y is a fake one although their call could be right.
ppk
simples.
ReplyDeleteI thought you were holding until 1300?
What gives?
mark
mostpeople are still on holiday and teh Jews are celabrating Chanukha so even they might not pull the trigger just yet. And we know tey are extremely influential in the market place.
ReplyDeletemortie
mortie,
ReplyDeleteIt's no secret that the Jews want to take control of the global financial system. You have to remember that they still live and operate under the Old Covenant and that they still feel entitled to own everything on this earth. Afterall it was promised to them as a birthright blessing. So the rumors are true that there is a Zionist conspiracy. They will evade this publicly but in reality it is a very well known fact that it is their goal and religious belief. They have also managed to convince their western allies in particular the United States that they are the lost ten tribes of Israel so that in reality they are brothers and also partakers of the birthright blessings of Israel. Ofcourse if you're a Freemason you already knew this centuries ago. They also believe Queen Elibeth sits on the throne of David.
Why are the most beautiful actresses in Hollywood all Jews. Natalie Portman, Rachel Weisz, Gwenyth Paltrow, and converting to Judaism....Madonna, Kiera Knightly. How can you hate an enemy where their woman are so damn HOT!
Bob
Cycles: 8 Day Cycle Top Due Dec 29 +/-, 8 Day Cycle Low Due Dec 31 on Full Moon
ReplyDeleteLooking for a top either today or tomorrow and then down into the end of the year. Market vulnerable to big sell-off in early 2010, wave B of ABC up move. Higher highs later in the summer 2010.
blustar
Hello All: I personally think we are approaching a top with QQQQ around 47 ( daily Fib Sequences )... I do think there is more upside here... I use 10-day Put/Call ratios to determine some tops and bottoms. Today OEX Put/Call is over 2 and CBOE is around .58.... 10-days are not at extremes ( over the last 12 months ), but I am watching these closely. If a high OEX Put/Call and a low CBOE Put/Call lasts the next three days it should be enough to warrant a sell signal... I also want to see some more negative divergences in the internals as well as increased NASDAQ volume and decrease in NYSE...
ReplyDeleteBarry
BOB
ReplyDeletethanks for the post. It makes me laugh. Unfortunately there is a lot of truth to what you say. It's just that it sounds hilarious to the average joe.
albert
took off some shorts at 1022 for a lil wave up then will add back to shorts
ReplyDeleteWe completed a five wave move
ReplyDeletei 1093.88 1101.37 7.49
ii 1101.37 1098.21 -3.16 42.2%
iii 1098.21 1120.27 22.06 2.95 of i
iv 1120.27 1116.00 -4.27 19.4%
v 1116.00 1130.38 14.38 1.92 of i
Here are the retraces
1093.88 1130.38 36.50
1130.38 1121.77 -8.61 23.60%
1130.38 1116.44 -13.94 38.20%
1130.38 1112.13 -18.25 50.00%
1130.38 1107.82 -22.56 61.80%
Key question: was this five move (i) of C of Z or all of it? Likely only (i)of C
rrman
ReplyDeletethanks for the comment.
I was being facetious about the "hating the enemy" part.
Personally I don't hate anyone. I have Jewish and Arab friends.
I've studied the Torah and know the religious system quite well. I am also a student of the bible and know what christian organization has fallen off the beaten path.
As an American I will concede that my government doesn't blow people up either but they are sure as heck making peoples lives very difficult to live. I just wonder when the next Revolutionary or Civil war breaks out. I think we forget sometimes that the bloodiest, most vicious war America ever fought was amongst ourselves. Over 400000 dead. Soldiers fell by the thousands in a single battle. Not too many movies made about the scale of bloodletting of our little war.
I know the Arabs and Jews once lived in peace and harmony until someone made life very difficult for the other and the hatred built up to a point where the killing began. Nobody kills without a cause. Not us , not them. There's always a reason.
Bob
I'm thinking this up wave lasts until around 2pm eastern looks like we're not going to make the big down move today looks like I'll go short around 2pm and hold overnight think we get the big down tomorrow now
ReplyDeleteAgree with Ravi's retrace. 1096 spx cash potential for the down move. then still may make new high
ReplyDeleteSamamehta:
ReplyDeleteIf you read my last post, my retrace is 1108-1116 spx cash area NOT 1096.
What I see is
ReplyDeletelow hits at 12:55, 15:20
high hits 13:50, 15:30
That last one could carry us over the positive line at the close.
Coy
Just depends on how deeply we go on the 15:20
ReplyDeleteAlthough no-one has noticed - we are actually at the start of a melt -up to March SPX 1300 - 1400 .
ReplyDeleteLiquidity driven market will continue as long as the printing presses keep churning.
There is is no limit to how high the market will go - especially if inflation takes hold , and the asset bubble forms.
As long as the printing continues - the markets will climb .
Simples
You have to take my times with a grain of salt. Some times inverted, some times dead wrong.
ReplyDeletethx Coy they are good conformation for me on my strategy
ReplyDeleteNice to see everyone on the blog.
ReplyDeletethanks
Kathy
21 hour cycle Low is in the making here folks. Might not want to get too short just yet. Bigger short coming after one mmore small rally.
ReplyDeleteJust use stops that's all.
Y
looks like we finally hit bottom with that down wave no up for a while
ReplyDeletecovered short from today am
ReplyDeleteChanged my mind on the count. Today's hi was more likely i of (iii) from 1093.88 bottom. We are i process of completing ii of (iii).
So, iii of (iii) up may be dead ahead.
NOTED
ReplyDeletethe 258bar cycle or 21 hour cycle JUST HIT A LOW AT 2;30pm
However, the last cycle used a 329bar cycle extending to 27 hours, so we will see WHATS NEXT
258 might turn in a minor blip, IF the larger cycle is heading lower.
so far the 204 b @ 10am was minor but recognizable
same for 228b@ noon
and 1pm turned over on the daily hourly cycle
Today marked a Bradley TURN date, thus the slightly higher highs,
and NOW we should see a strong turn
its after 2:30 and they are rebounding only slightly
Martin Armstrong's 8.6 months breaks down into 182 tr days
which also breaks into 22day segments
It is NOW exactly 204 tr days from March 9th, and 22 tr days from NOV 23rd, at 182 days
According to one Elliott expert and timer, this week is 377 wks from OCT 2002 LOWS
Jay
good call Ravi i got out of my 1125 short at 1122 went long missed a couple of points but i think like you we get a wave up to short this afternoon
ReplyDeleteJay are you still short or are you adding any today?
ReplyDeleteGovernment Sachs will try like hell to keep indexed positive. $TRIN, 1 min.
ReplyDeleteCoy
ReplyDeleteI agree
phil
Y --- nice call man. thankyou for pointing that out.
ReplyDeletebob
thanks y,
ReplyDeleteImpeccable timing as usual. I wish you'd post more often.
Sally
this rally looks like it may have some more follow through tomorrow. Maybe a Gap-up. I guess mornibg futures will confirm.
ReplyDeleteNice call on the 21 hour cycle Y.
Are you short, shorting, shorting overnight? Anyway see you tomorrow, hopefully.
mark
GAP UP!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeletex
good call Y.
ReplyDelete