Wednesday, June 23, 2010

June 23rd EKG @ 8:30am & 4pm follow up

ANOTHER GOOD DAY FOR THE EKG
Since march 9th ---41/60 = now at 68%
Activity index showed us A LOW ENERGY DAY
FED spike- no big deal- I dont even know what was announced- and dont care.


Negative thinking does NOT seem to relate to a negative open as previously postulated.

10am new homes sales "SHOULD" correspond with a TURN @ the 13HR cycle
there is ALSO a moderate high energy hit at 11:05am

BUT 258bars at noon should set the day back into a low at that time

the afternoon should respond in a positive manner to the FED no matter what they report
as the day has high positive energy effects at 3pm & 6pm

Oil is moderately lower showing mild weakness , but the futures are mildly positive at 8:30am

more later
Jay

31 comments:

  1. FYI
    the BACKGROUND vertical lines
    on the EKG mean NOTHING
    Jay

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  2. Dow jones trading close to an important support zone
    http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/dow-jones-technical-analysis.html

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  3. Anonymous11:04 AM

    great stuff jay

    I would have dumped my tza monday open if it weren't for you,as is,I just did at a VERY nice b-day present from yesterday!
    '
    now, since fri 2-4 SHOULD be a low,will this minor run (as rrman says a weak attempt maybe back to 1100-1110)should I enter tza before close as a high,or do you see a high early thursday per weekly graph?

    you da man

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  4. francois
    Dont fall in love with your analyst
    GG

    I do make mistakes
    altho less often recently

    Today so far is running PERFECTLY
    on the EKG
    Small up open
    HIGH at 10am
    THAT 13hour CYCLE@ 10am Sure has MERIT

    11am energy boost, some what

    coming near to noon @ 258bars

    After they can go to sleep till 2;15pm

    If I weren't holding my shorts
    I would look to short today's close, especially if they dont get back to 1100
    Either way, IMO< I would not wait for tomrrow, unless you can trade at midnite in futures tonight.
    Jay

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  5. FYI
    TZA, TYP, Energy and other related
    3x bear direxions are
    going to REVERSE SPLIT
    5 to 1
    on July8th.
    Jay

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  6. Closed my TZA calls at a 20% profit - could have closed at 30% if I had followed Jay's low cycle :)

    Will look to enter at EOD ...

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  7. Dear Jay,
    I have a modest proposal if you don't mind. It would be really convenient if you would make a post in the thread when you make a new post on the blog (something like "NEW POST" - so we would then jump to new thread and not stay in this discussion while there is a new one going on. Thanks!
    Also I would propose that everyone keep an eye on TLT. If it breaks 100 and closes above - the most bearish predictions might come true

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  8. TLT has the LOOK
    of an UPSIDE break away

    Jay

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  9. Thank you, Sir. Well TLT has not break out yet. But when it will... Oh my God

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  10. AS
    is the BETA better on TZA calls
    OR
    TNA puts??
    and how will the 5/1 reverse split
    on tza effect that beta

    Thanks
    Jay

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  11. Russell 2000 hourly chart got support from a dragon fly doji

    http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/dragonfly-doji-in-russell-2000-hour.html

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  12. Jay - I buy it based on price of options as I have smaller account. Howver TNA puts will give better movement as the moves will be larger ...

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  13. Splits usually change the strike price ... accordingly for the options ... but not 100% sure how it will work if you have few options not the even number for the split ..

    eg if you have 5 TZA 7 calls then it will be 1 TZA 35 call ... but if you have 2-3 only then you may be forced to sell ...

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  14. I have a feeling they might headfake us higher today and pull the rug tomorrow.

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  15. Jay - still looking for rise into EOD - is the activity index showing that still ?

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  16. i don't trust it, i remain short . have the feeling a meltdown move is coming and would be shitty to sit on the sidelines

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  17. I think sweeping done

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  18. Dow Jones came down from a triangle
    http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/dow-jones-triangle-break-down.html

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  19. Reza,

    Can you tell me what you mean by "sweeping done"?

    Thanks!

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  20. Anonymous3:12 PM

    beware eur/usd huge rally....s+p should follow into the close

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  21. Re the Euro

    It also looks very bullish to the 1.307 area. A little overbought short term but should start to rally hard in a day or two which would fit a rally in the majors for July.

    KC

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  22. Jay, I don't think I can say thank you enough for your guidance!

    When could we get a preview of next week/early July?

    As discussed, I'm thinking about closing all my shorts near market close on Friday as you've suggested.

    I'm curious if I should scale into any weekend positions long/short. Or alternatively, wait for the Bradley Turn spike and then re-short.

    Thank you!

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  23. I meant take out the bear stops

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  24. JUFU
    You confused me a bit
    I will be CLOSING OUT SHORTS
    on the 25th at or near close
    and BUYING LONg at or near close
    ALSO on the 25th
    Monday the 28th should be quite a bullish show
    Jay

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  25. Sorry for the confusion.

    Your answer is what I was looking for. Thanks!

    How long do you think this bull move will last?

    I'm debating on buying front month calls on SPY. There are some that expire June 30 and then the next expiry is July. If I hold it for just the weekend, potentially June 30s could be quite lucrative, but also very very risky.

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  26. The rally on Monday will be only good for Mnday
    Tues & wed should offer some sloppy tradings and setbacks

    THE HIGH should come on JULY 22/23,
    Jay

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  27. Bought Aug TZA 7 call @ 1.14 ... for holding into Fridya

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  28. no longer doing july call due to theta decay ...

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  29. JUFU - one piece of advice - always try to keep time on your options on your side ...

    This is why I bought the aug 7 call vs the july 7 call on TZA ... i could buy only half of what I could have bought of july calls ... but still better ..

    Trust me - have learned this the hard way ..

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  30. SEE NEW POST & THREAD
    EKG tomrrow Am
    Jay

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