FROM spx 1018 high at 1;15pm on FridayIT looks to me
WV 1 low to Monday open at 1005 followed quickly by wave 2 high at 1009
then wave i @ 1001 & ii @1006 of Wave 3 NOW in progress @ 995 near 11am
EXPECTING wave v of 3 to make a low on Friday at 10 to 10;30am
This could actually make the LOW of WAVE {1}
Wv {2} happens quickly late Friday
Monday then starts WAVE 3 of 3, and it ends on the 20th
wave 4 high on 24th which sets up the 5thwave next to the 26th LOW
that is the Possible Elliott wave layout for the "B"wave
HOW low is low will be determined by the low of wave 1 multiplied by a fibo factor
which could be TYPICALLY 1.618 or 2.618 multiple
Jay
I mentioned on my previous post that the fed will stop buying treasuries soon - well it cancelled buying today , and we may get an announcement tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteWhat will this do ? - TNX will spike over 4 , causing mortgage interest rates to go well over 6% in a short space of time -
Mr Market will not like that one bit.
Does any one have a news on Mahendra's call?
ReplyDeletehere is a partial:
Flash news - here is tomorrow's trades..where to buy metals, stocks and oil?..dollar is doing well.....More - Tuesday, August 11, 2009, Mahendra Sharma
Mike
Its getting near to 12:30 and 126 bars, so we might see an uptick after that time period or it could be noon at 120 bars- right now
ReplyDeletethe activity index agrees and is ticking up at noon from 100 to 225
the propensity index also shows a rebound today
Im still expecting a lower close tomrrow AND an OPENING rally on the 13th
Jay
just got word from one of my Yahoo financial groups
ReplyDeleteEXPECT BIG DOWN DAY TOMORROw
Hey, guess what
that fits with my projection for a LOW tomrrow's close
Jay
Also
ReplyDeletereminder
today is 110 from March 6th
and tomrrow
is 110 from Mrch 9th
tomrrow is also 55 from may26th-27th
and 81 tr days from April20th low
THE "B" wave is finally here
WE can estimate the low of the 26th by using a fibo multiple
of the low formed on Friday's open
Jay
Coy:
ReplyDeleteWill you get your 13:30-13:40 smack down with the break of SPX 992.45 AND DJI 9208.95? Let us see.
If it's a big down day tomorrow then this would also fit fo a low on Friday like you were saying Jay.
ReplyDeleteok, time for an intraday long into the close.
Mark
COY
ReplyDeleteit doesnt look like you got the
play posted
ONCE again
11am - actual 11;15 low @992.40
1pm - actual 1;15pm low @992.76
3pm
ALL play an important part of day trading hourly
next is
150bars at 2;30 or
156bars at 3pm = matches the hourly today
Close should be higher, but still lower on the day. looks like were in wave iv and have come to a crawl just the like reading for the day.
I will be Re shorting the close
Jay
Coy,
ReplyDeleteAny changes to the readings of the day because of the banks.
Thanks
I'll be reshorting the bump into FOMC.
ReplyDeleteUK,
ReplyDeleteIf Fed canceled today, wouldn't that
be having a dramatic effect now??
So what's the lesson about the FED?
ReplyDeleteFollow the cycles and not the FED.
CNBC and the FED love it everytime we ascribe to them power they don't possess. It's all part of the Illusionary Matrix they bombard gullible ordinary people with.
jfk
we are close to doing a 38.2% retrace of the drop from yesterday's close. Let us see if the up move stops there.
ReplyDeleteThat retrace is about 50% on DJI compared 38% spx.
ReplyDelete50% retrace from yesterday's close will be back test of 1000.
ReplyDeleteIt should stop there.
Well, wave iv of 3 is complete and wave v of 3 has begun. Expecting open down below the 992 resistance area tomorrow open. Good to have you back Jay. Coy, you've made some very interesting calls. Thanks Ravi for all the updates.
ReplyDeletelooks to me ,,and others,, that three of three is just starting.from 998.76
ReplyDeleteWith ALL due respect, elliot wave is not an effective TRADING tool. It is
ReplyDeletetoo subjective with too many and ifs
and buts. It works best AFTER the fact. If someone is consistently beating the market avgs. with it please speak up. Please.
Reza,
ReplyDeleteThose were the readings, my only readings. They were offset by the banks, and basically deemed invalid.
In the current environment, many banks are hanging on by a thread. Others are government sponsored. And currently the bain (at least mine) in calling the market.
Coy
I'm more than a little suspicious about tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteThe 30-year TB Yield, $TYX, has been going down the last two days. If it scales up, so do financials and the general major indices. So, as to not be caught by surprise, get a reading on $TYX's trend before the equity market opens. Bond trading starts at 8:20.
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ReplyDeleteHere are two scenarios:
ReplyDeleteScenario I: 1007.12 was orthodox A top, 1018 was b of extended flat
A top 1007.1
(a) bottom 982 Friday AM
-25.1
(b) top 998 Friday Close
1.618 of (a) -40.6
B bottom 957.4
Scenario II: 1018 is A top
A top 1018.0
(a) bottom 982 Friday AM
-36.0
(b) top 998 Friday Close
1.618 of (a) -58.2
B bottom 939.8
As shown in Dan Eric's post, Scenario I, we may get to 990 tomorrow AM first and then rally to 998, before falling to 982 to complete (a):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SoHcr4R5mZI/AAAAAAAABWk/FGLVcu2wQWs/s1600-h/spx5+%281%29.png
Scenario I gets B close to 956 prior important top, I would not wait for scenario 2 to cover.
Let us see if we got Jay's astro and EWI lined up finally. The market alone will tell.
Ravi, what is the time frame for (b) to play out either scenario 1 or 2. thanks
ReplyDeletesam
Elliott wave can be used effectively during certain time periods, especially like this one from the 10th to the 26th
ReplyDeleteWatch and learn
mr Elliott
ps; The people here are NOT novices and dont need that kind of advice
Please keep your comments constructive- not destructive
thanks
Jay
Sam:
ReplyDeleteEW does not deal with timing per se, just the price pattern. Though time pattern can be a consideration.
Are you talking about B or (b)?
In my last post, I speculated that to fit Jay's timing (b) will have to end this Friday close after (a) ends Friday AM. In doing so , i was very uncomfortable that (b) will then be too short in duration relative to (a). Since then, I had a conference with Jay and he clarified that his timing called for up, down up from Thirsday.
That would be more in line with my sense of proportion. looking for (a) to end sometime Thursday with a three wave up to (b) Friday close and a big (c) drop to complete B towards 956.
I hope you understand the difference of degree between A, (a) and a; B , (b) and b etc.. If not, you should read the basics about EW first.
Ravi
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ReplyDelete