TODAY Topped out at 1;15 pm
Activity index fell back to 66
It would appear that 1;15 to 1:26 at the Moon 120 Sun
has tipped the scales for the moment at spx 1036 & 9577
more than a typical 78.6% retracement, and as I posted they got to 92% at SPX1036
AND 92 % got an EXACT 9578 today on the DOW
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THERE are a NUMBER of SHORT term cycles CONVERGING on FRIDAY at 10am
38.2% of 13day at 10:12am
18days or 3 x 6 tr days from Aug 17th - low to low
9 days from Aug28th high to low
39 hrs from Spt2nd lo to lo
DOLLAR appears to be making FRESH NEW LOWS and will be at 24 days tomrrow
but it doesnt rule out the morning of the 11th
__________________________________________________________
Heldge's graphs shows a QUICK DIP should be NEXT, but it also indicates a QUICK rebound
this is consistent with the above cycle lows at 10am Friday
AS WELL AS a BRADLEY change date on Monday Spt14th
FASCINATING as the READING for Monday calls for a STRONG START
BUT the NEXT 3 days SPT 15-17 are WROT with A NEGATIVE CLUSTER
COY, you had mentioned a LOW on Friday and the above CYCLES could be IT
I went looking to confirm that, and it looks like I found it.
the GAME PLAN NOW would be to COVER shorts on FRIDAY
at 10am GIVEN THE ABOVE scenario plays out as described.
SPX 1014 SEEMS To be the MIDDLE GROUND for the last decline and rally from
August 28th, to SPT 9th and could be the cycle low for friday AM.
And that COULD leave the DOOR oopen JUST enuf to get ONE MORE thrust
BACK to 1036 / 1040
more later
Jay
I FORGOT ONE POINT
ReplyDeleteA short term REBOUND HIGh looks good for tomrrow at 9:42am
I might consider adding more shorts to catch this downleg Tomrrow into friday at 10am as described.
OR
I might just consider buying that Friday 10am low for the rally into monday AM
at 10am high.
CHOICES are good to have
Jay
We did five waves down from 1036.34 to 1027.65> have retraced 61.8% at 1033.
ReplyDeletewe back kissed broken channel
ReplyDeleteGIVEN we are DUE FOR 180 bars at CLOSE-
ReplyDeleteITS NOT happening
THUS IS MUST at the OPEN,
with a 9:42am SUn 30 Venus REBOUND
It could be QUITE WILD tomrrow morning
I would THEN SUSPECT 258 bars to CLOSE out the day on a LOW thus leading to the cycle convergence at 9;45am - 10am AS posted on the main page.
Jay
RAvi
ReplyDeletewhat do yuo think about spx 1014 holding?
Jay
Jay:
ReplyDeleteAfter fishing five down from today's top, we completed a deep retrace.
At the very least, we should be now beginning the last five of a 5-3-5 to take us down below 1027.65. That means at least 5.7 point lower in the morning first.
Can we make a low at your 9:42 ?
Jay:
ReplyDelete1014, the 50% retrace, is very doable.
If it is part of 5-3-5, the first 5 was a bit shallow 1036.34-1027.65= 8.69. Then the three up was deep 1034.61-1027.65= 6.96 or 80% retrace.
For lat of 5-3-5, we need 1034.61-1014.30= say 20.41; that is 2.35 x first part of 5-3-5. That is a stretch but doable a in single zig zag. More likely, it will need a double zig zag. Say down to 1020 then up to 1030 and then down to 1014.
Above scenarios, are part of two bullish counts that take us to new high. There is one bearish count which makes 992-1036 a (ii), in which case, we head below 992.
More important than 1014 is the question as to which larger degree count proves out.
As I said, the EW counts since 1039 are muddled.
Jay:
ReplyDeleteThere is a gap at 1016.45. So, we may go there short of 50% retrace at 1014.30.
from flash: lots of up-down into opex
ReplyDeleteMKT Update: QTY. four 3 leg turns comin (9/17,21,24), (9/17,21,22), (9/15,17,18), (9/21,22,23); Sept. OPEX comin [hot button 9/21]
25 minutes ago from web
By his own admission FLASH cannot tell highs or lows- thats why he only posts dates.
ReplyDeleteHowever, 9/17 is a date I posted several times and again now for a LOW
Heres some interesting math that might help us understand where we are right now
March 6th and Aug 28th are 121 days apart = 11 squared
Aug 28th and Nov 21st are 193 days apart - ALMOST 14 Squared=196
Jenkins uses Squares frequently
That little math tid bit should tell us that we are BEYOND the WAVE C high and anything we are doing NOW is PART of the NEXT wave.
Daneric and per Ravi show us that 1014 is very possible within the next cycle low on Friday at 10am.
And it is possible an exhaustion wave is forming, but according to Danerics chart, IMO, theres NOT ENUF TIME
Fascinating IF the CYCLE tops here on 9/11 with a last gasp
FAILED attempt to break out
ASTRO next week WOULD INDICATE the above. ALSO interesting to note this is the week PRIOR TO OPTIONS EXP and we USUALLY get a LOW on the Wed prior, in this case Thsdy as we lost a day.
ALSO NOTE the 23rd is 55 tr days from july8th low & 110 tr days from April 20th low, which wre also 55 tr days apart.
game plan again is to close out shorts at 1015 area by friday at 10am.
AND reSHORT again on Monday's open.
Jay
How about you, Jay? Can you pin point both the dates and high/lows? You posted just two days ago that Sept. 9 is a low, so today is a low? haha
ReplyDeleteThursday's Picture -
ReplyDeleteNeutral to positive, positive going into the close.
Lows:
10:11
12:56
Coy
hadik high 9/14 then sharp decline
ReplyDeleteI think Ive written that b4 hmm
I guess they are catching up to me
Jay
Activity is STILL FLAT at 66
ReplyDeleteAs detailed
180 bars hit at open = down
Sun 30 Venus at 9:42 = up
Now falling again
204Bars at 11;30
228bars @ 1;30
258bars at 4pm and or open Fri.
Propens index hovering at 2986, down from3009
_______________________
Friday
38.2%/13 day cycle at 10;12am
short term hourly cycles converge at 10am
Propens index jumps UP to 3006
Looks like an eraly open low at 10am, then rally into Monday AM
________________________
SO, its DOWN today, into a low Friday Am then back Up into Monday At 10am.
EXPECT sharp declines on 15-16 & 17
FLASH has TURN on 17th- agree
Jay
interesting faz is green with S&P up 41
ReplyDeleteBears are getting taken to the shed.
ReplyDeleteWhat down day?
The Bull is just warming up!!!!!
polly
It is lucky for Jay that this blog is free. Otherwise, he would appear in courts for numerious times. Keep guessing, someday, you will be correct and by that time, do more bragging.
ReplyDeleteThursday, September 10, 2009
ReplyDeleteNew yearly highs
We got our new yearly highs in the NDX and SPX as the master Cycle (MC) expected.
We should still see higher highs into the next swing high.
All I can say is, I hope the Bears were careful to safeguard themselves.
This has been a relentless rally.
Ian (The Master Cycle Timer)
MKT by the way @jaywiz10534 bulls can accumulate as low as 1014 SPX or so if we get back there :-)
ReplyDeleteabout 3 hours ago from web back to the jiggles !
about 4 hours ago from web MKT @jaywiz10534 after much thought my CALEB model found 1st empiricle repeating cycle; it's awesome & exact; PLANETS & Kepler's 3 laws :-)
about 4 hours ago from web MKT @jaywiz10534 exceeding 1 tick above the high on 8/28 (as advertised here) sets us up for possible higher highs in 2009 (short term)
about 4 hours ago from web MKT: I do remember tellin Doug Kass that his high call was premature & to look for a short term 1 on 8/28; did we get it :-) I'm done now
about 4 hours ago from web @jaywiz10534 Jay, I don't have time to post intraday bullish & bearish reversals; they R there; go find em; my past history speaks :-)
about 4 hours ago from web in reply to jaywiz10534@jaywiz10534 Jay, wasn't 8/28 a high ? 9/2, 9/3 a low as advertised ? 4 cycles I put out yesterday shou
Flash
Another MATH tidbit I just picked up on my own DUUHHH
ReplyDeleteSPX 666 - 1043 = FIBO 377
BUT one good thing IT shows there is NO MORE room at the top
Consider elliott waves
Aug28th = wave 3 MOMENTUM high
Spt 10th = 9days = 5thwave = PRICE high
It belongs to those who felt left out of the earlier price high, and are being led to slaughter
IT HAPPENS TIME & TIME AGAIN
they are fair weather friends
GOOD NEWS bugs
might close on highs leaving the door open for 258bars at 9:30 tomrrow
Some other indication of a $$ change tomrrow
A good news day, but some secrets are exposed and that might trigger some selling
Jay
market at new highs and still holding,this has yet again pushed my time windows right to the brink of possibility as far as historical data says.time and again this year its happened.the next long term delta point is scheduled for sept 23 + or- a few days and has to be a low.we shouldnt ordinarily be making new highs a fortnight before it??? annoying but not impossible.i may just sit it out until after opex.
ReplyDeleteafter 8
ReplyDelete55 tr day cycle culminates on 23rd or 25th should start 8 to 10 days prior
Thus the bradley date Spt14th
Jay