Thursday, May 20, 2010

EKG May 21st Preliminary & 8am update

8am UPDATE shows NO upside at open
BUt any rebound is subject to further losses
using math model below we can only suspect certain levels to be met
such as
1060 to 1044 to 1020- again ONLY MATH levels NOT a prediction.

Some have even thrown out 980 for consideration, ???? imo ,NONE of those TODAY
how soon then, you ask ?
well if NOT today, then Monday at 11am has similar connotations to Nov 21st at 11am
but some of those levels are still not attainable yet.

The ABOVE EKG is very similar to XTIDE's RED tide today

HELGE shows a LOW at or near today and or 24th- hard to tell exactly per his charts

ACTIVITY index is coming OFF a LOW earlier this morning at 6am of 133,
and at 9am is now at 200, which might indicate a brief dip and recovery by 10;30

90 bars hits at 11:30 giving plenty of time to bounce around prior to the pivot
126bars at 2;30 means that after 11;30, there more time to rebound till at least 1pm
156bars would then occur on MONDAY at 10:30 along with the 13 day at 11am, and hourly pivot
Jay

We can see there should be a LOWER low tomrrow, and the END of day is not yet available

We also cannot be sure about the open with a move UP or not,
and will depend upon what the futures tell as at 8:30am

on the 19th As of 7 pm, futures are only off about 5pts

90bars at 11;30
126bars @ 2:30pm

40 pt rule of thumb
1220- 1072 = 148 / 40 = 3.7
1220 - 160 = spx @ 1060
1220- 200 = spx @ 1020
this is NOT a prediction nor a projection, Just the MATH, folks, just the Math

the MIDDLE Ground today was at 1090, the 200 day line and major support
NOW broken, even tho grossly oversold, just like Nov 19th lost 400 pts, so did Nov 20th , 2008


TOmrrow is 377 NOV 20th closing low
Monday is 377 Nov 21st @ 11am
377/13 = 29 rotations of 13 days @ 11am
____________
JUNE 2nd is 377 from DEC 1st, that infamous day of 700 pts lost,
WHich led to a stronger December
IN between, we have negative energy on May 26 to 28
________________________________

SO<
important FIBO 377 tr day cycle hits tomrrow & Monday at 11am
IMPORTANT influence LOW due on MAY 28th
important TURN on JUNE2nd = a Bradley TURN
Bradley dates in JUNE 2, 10, 26th
_________________

June should END higher

----------------
13 day cycle has been solid
Monday at noon was 62%/13 day
WEd at 12;25 was 78.6%/13day
Monday at 11am is 100 %/13day

Jay

50 comments:

  1. moderate Trin (1.20) suggests we still haven't hit rock bottom

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  2. http://www.tickerville.com/index.php/site/comments/stop_buying_the_dip/

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  3. Abdullah
    How did you get that arms index

    Arms index today was 4.08

    .5572/1366

    Jay

    IMO< sell any higher open, if we get one at all

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  4. A market like this suddenly turns
    bears into bulls
    SOME are Looking for that 400 pts rally like May10th
    IMO
    DONT DO IT until after May28th

    We still might get an open rally off US employment data, but I will be shorting it

    Jay

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  5. Jay, SPX is wedging. R u going to cover your long term TZA today. or cover everything 27/28th

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  6. Most likely cover on 28th
    but am thinking about partial on Monday at 11am

    Jay

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  7. Jay

    I think cover some around 1056, then reshort around 1080 area. OPEX interest was 118, so I think they may play around 108 area

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  8. Jay

    QQQQ has a weekly sell signal. How do u interpret this, is this the beginning

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  9. Reza
    1060 OPEn
    1060 is 160 OFF the high
    1220 - 1060

    160/4 = 40pts

    1060 to 1056 should be bouncy bouncy time, but dont expect a BOTTOM

    just added update to main page

    Jay

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  10. can someone interpret for me?

    newest chart has a low at about what time???

    I gather that amplitude is not accurate only direction

    looks like a high around??? 1pm then sell off into the close?

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  11. BENJOYCE
    IGNORE AMPLITUDE
    only DIRECTION counts

    FOLLOW the BAR cycles which have been good as well as the 13 day cycles for pivots

    Highs in between, usually at or near 11am, 1pm, and 3pm

    I dont know why this is such a hard concept
    it happens nearly every day

    Jay

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  12. Activity in RISING trend off the morning low at 5am of 133, NOW at 225 at 9:30 am

    Jay

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  13. I covered skf, tza and qid, today

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  14. there are projections by some to spx 925 for the bottom of this wave

    that would set back to last July/ Aug lows

    1044 is FEB low
    once broken, then next lower retest looks like 880 on JULY 10th

    Jay

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  15. As yuo can see the MKT bouncy bouncy
    after an initial low just under 1060

    When to SHORT again
    ANyone got the answer?

    Reza says 1080
    sounds ok,

    time wise, maybe 1pm which is between the bar cycles and is a usual & customary high turn on a daily basis

    10am and mkt is now positive

    Activity index HOLDING at 225

    Jay

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  16. Jay
    I think let them do the OPEX thing until 1080 area, then short.

    How does Monday open look like

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  17. Jay

    May be even go to 1090

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  18. Jay

    so far Mon & Tue looks up, the way the futures are climbing.
    What do u see.

    Or should we wait until Tue to short

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  19. Jay,

    I think rrman is right to go long, because everyone is looking for 1050. Remember our original plan, long at 1056, when bears wake up.

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  20. Jay
    If it closes up 1092 today, its safe to go long until Tue as you mentioned earlier

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  21. Helge & Chartsedge plan are working

    http://www.chartsedge.com/subsp82546.html

    Any thoughts

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  22. I went Heavy Long for Huge rally into next week, I covered this morning for our typical OPEX short squeeze rally from hell.

    See you guys on Wed morning where I'll take massive profits.

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  23. Reza
    It would appear we ahve rached an important level from which we get SOME BOUNCY

    BUT, do you really want to go long other than a SCALP trade

    POWER index SHOWS the RALLY today, but it also indicates a slippage
    lower from today's into intraday high into Monday morning concurring with the 13 day cycle pivot low at 11am

    HOWEVER< it also shows LOWER from 24th on to 28th

    As I posted the POWER index SHOWED an UPTICK today as it jumped from 300 at open to 500, by mid day

    Jay

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  24. Reza
    1090 sh seems like a very good target for re shorting

    It was the BREAK down support, NOW turns into Resistance

    They got to 1080 in a eye blink
    at 10am, and now will look for 1090 at or near 1pm.

    at 11am, Activity index ticked down one notch to 200

    Jay

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  25. We're going higher than 1090.

    Watch!

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  26. FAZ owners are going to get burned n the "short" run


    lol

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  27. Ricky

    I think so higher until Tuesday

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  28. Ricky
    one minute its crash and the next to the moon

    1090 is a VERY critical level

    We have NOT reached a tradable BOTTOM

    the dates Ive published HAVE NOT gone away

    May 28th is CRITICAL
    and could find the SPX under 1000
    BOTTOM OF wave 3

    THEN as posted, JUNE IS AN UP MONTH with the 26th as potential high = WAVE 4

    thus July & Aug = wave 5

    I realize its much too soon to project all of the above as it gets lost within minutes
    but WE must keep some perspective

    Jay

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  29. Jay

    Until Tuesday looks ok based on the 2 hour chart

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  30. if xlf above 14.82 at close, swing long fas

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  31. Jay

    I've got buy signals about to trigger on some short term cycles. Not trying to predict here. Just reacting to market and what it's showing me.

    I said "in the short run", not "to the moon".
    However short run could morph into something longer. Can't tell right now. So I'm taking position and wait to cross next bridge when we get there.

    I don't want to sit on sideline and watch this get away from me although if you're not already in this morning it might be hard to get in now.

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  32. Rick
    I get that for sure

    Im looking at 2pm for late short, and close out position at close

    the 11am pivot Monday should be good for runup MON & Tue

    BUt today may not settle on a high
    EKG suggests not

    Jay

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  33. Activity Index had DROPPED from
    233 this morning to 100 NOW at 2:30pm

    Jay

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  34. Jay

    VIX dropped
    So its better to take a short position when VIX 33

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  35. out of FAS

    TYP long

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  36. short short
    no relief in sight

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  37. Weekly confirmed sell signal on QQQQ. So will play that one

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  38. Jay

    It looks like 1020 in the cards

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  39. If it closes under 1070, then 1020 in the cards

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  40. monday shaping out to be 300 points day as Jay mentioned
    as of now looks down

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  41. Reza,
    I did NOT project a 300 pt down day on Monday
    Dont know where you got that
    BUT
    11am is 13 day cycle pivot
    wherever that gets them to, but I dont see less than 1056 until later next week

    we appear to have hit wv iii
    now in wv iv, in which we got to 1090, and might get to fibo 1119
    before crumbling in wv v

    This is ALL JUST wave 1 of P3.

    Jay
    Jay

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  42. i meant if we close under 1070

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  43. close above 1083, then gap up

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  44. goods like gap down small one

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  45. because we are now in a up channel i think the big down days are over for a few weeks big up days will be on tap now

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  46. May 28th HAS not moved away
    and is still out there next week

    Last 30 min rally picked up the red tide rather than the green tide it was following ALL DAY which would have ended lower

    1148 on May 18th open- 1056 today at open = 92 pts
    92x 38.2% = 35pts =spx1089
    92x 78.6% = 72pts =spx1128
    OR somewhere in between
    but thats the range for Mon& Tues

    the first wave
    1220 - 1056 = 164pts
    got back to 1148 or 92 pts
    was 55%


    IF wave4 gets to 1120
    then wave 5 could lose 92 to 150 pts and head under to 1020 to 975

    Jay

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