Monday, May 25, 2009

Another Chart of Interest

Heres a chart from Ibo, one of our followers

This clearly shows what ive written several times

As a trader the hardest thing we have to learn is WAITING

Hadik recently wrote that June8th is the earliest the mkt could turn down,
and expects a bottom on or about the 12th

Ibo's dates concur with the above as do mine, HOWEVER,
****we are both targetting June8th and 17th*********
__________________________________________________________
CURRENTLY
WE have a market churning at a high at or near the Jan6th SPX high of 934
Dow has been well below its Jan6th high of 9035, but managed to get near 8600.

HIGHS as we all know take time to FINISH all components-- in other words, THEY ROLL
Unlike bottoms which CLIMAX all at once or within a day of each other as indeces
YES, sometimes do a bounce and drop, but thats another story for another time.

My recent comments reflect ibo's chart above, and thus we must be aware of a range bound mkt
until such time as it falls off the cliff's edge,
AND IMO, that will be from June10th to 17th with the
MAJOR EMPHASIS on June 15 - 17 th;

NOW, we have many options to choose from as how to take advantage of that expected dive.

If your a BULL, you can wait till June17th, sell the farm and buy stock
or if a bear, its obvious you want to be short on June10-12
And a trader can catch both sides, short on the 12th- long on the 18th

NOW, the other end of those trades can be relatively short lived, so dont expect a
MOON shot no matter how good it looks come June 24th- this mkt is NOWHERE
clear of the woods for at least 2 more years

remember we are in the WINTER of the LONG
Kondratief wave
which I posted a couple times
_____________________________________________
As for this week, Ibo also see's a high on the 55 td cycle on the 26th,
and IMO, intraday of the 27th with a possbile run on spx 940 thus
failing an attempt to break out above the Jan6th high.

May 26-27 = 55 tr days from March 6 & 9th (LOW TO HIGH)
the intertia high was 7days later which now = June4th
IMO< translates to June 3rd ,which is an 8day turn date for me.
June3rd date has come up frequently with Tim McCarthy also
____________________________________________

BUT for now we must LEARN to TRADE the mkt,
& not sit on our long or short positions.

More Later
Jay












22 comments:

  1. Anonymous7:20 PM

    Hi Jay this is much clearer. thanks. Do you have a feelings that we may touch 875-878 first before trying 920-940?

    I plan to cash the shorts, if we gap down to lock in the profits and get better entry later. If we break 875-865 then may be trailing stop.

    great work jay.

    sam

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous7:21 PM

    Oh, I forgot to ask you. where do you post the numbers for index indicators?

    sam

    ReplyDelete
  3. HI Sam,
    I dont always present those levels but presently the Propensity index seems to be out of sync with a BIG one day rally today

    starts at 2999, down from 3002
    moves back up to 3001
    then takes a big drop to 2991
    closes the day at 2994

    Accordingly we should then get
    a mild lower open, and the futures at 9am are off 40 dow pts

    a recovery to maybe a little on the plus side, but the BIG move for the day should NOW be DOWN from about 11am to 3pm with a moderate rebound on the close

    The Power index agrees with the above

    AND THe BIGGER UP DAY NOW becomes tomrrow May27th in direct contrast to my previous outlook as well as Charts Edge

    BUT a run on spx 940 doesn't seem likely either

    GOLD on the DECLINE this week

    more later
    Jay

    ReplyDelete
  4. 120 bars could be the LOD at 3pm, and or 126 bars @ 3;30

    And Yes, Sam
    it looks like 878 first before a rally tomrrow, but 940 looks too far away

    Your strategy looks good if we start out lower by 9:45 -10am

    I will be buying short between 10 and 11am and will sell them at 3 to 3;30pm
    today

    Jay

    ReplyDelete
  5. Today's natural energy indicates a HOD at 1pm, then the propensity index appears to show a sell off to 3 -3;30

    the lower open was very brief as natural energy for the better part of today has positive output


    Sam, I will be selling short at 1pm today
    and most likely will close out that position at 3 to 3;30

    BUT there are indications of a possible lower open tomrrow also before rebounding to near 500,

    but gives back to 350 by days end
    thus leading to the
    28th which has NEG tendencies on the power index which drops to 250 by days end and spilling over to the 29th at the 250 level BUT it ends the day back at 450

    that should give us the nature of
    the cycles this week

    NOW its 10am and I am elated with the dow at +77pts

    Jay

    Lack of Comments today indicate a lower day

    Its now 9:50am and the dow is on
    the plus side by 9pts

    Jay

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  6. Anonymous10:08 AM

    Hit support at open at rocketed off, never to look back

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1399335


    a2

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  7. Anonymous11:11 AM

    have a look at volume over the last several months. A major divergence.

    a2

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  8. Anonymous11:35 AM

    Hi jay, thanks for the update. I did added shorts to my position at 905. let us see what happens. looking for 3-3;30 pm lod.

    tHANKS AGAIN. YOUR CALLS HAVE BEEN GOOD IN TERMS OF DIRECTION.

    sAM

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous11:37 AM

    i SAW NEG DIVERGENCE THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD GO DOWN SOON.

    WHAT IS YOUR DOWNSIDE TARGET FOR TODAY? OR DO YOU GO BY TIME ONLY FOR THE DAY?

    SAM

    ReplyDelete
  10. Sam
    I Mostly use TIME
    bot short at 12;35 & 12;45
    Dow up 205 & spx BANGING on 909-910

    natural energy SHiFTS at 1:09pm

    Its NOW 1:08pm
    HOD

    Jay

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  11. Anonymous1:16 PM

    Jay, i agree with you. this is the HOD. i see mega neg. divergence here. Added more puts. should see some fireworks here soon

    sam

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anonymous1:32 PM

    what s your LOD target?

    sam

    ReplyDelete
  13. Activity index holding STEADY at 2:15pm

    Might be 3pm turn dow again

    Sometimes I think I can count the simplest thing like 2 1/2 hours
    GHEESH

    Recalculated the 120bar cycle at 4pm

    which means the last 30 minutes today is VULNERABLE


    Jay

    ReplyDelete
  14. Anonymous2:31 PM

    Jay
    thanks for your work.

    are you still expecting a new high tomorrow (even if we sell off at the close today)?

    waterfall

    ReplyDelete
  15. NEW HIGH ??
    I certainly doubt it

    when spx 909 breaks down today
    it will set up one more shot to break above which should FAIL to HOLD, even if it supercedes it, thus taking us to a tradeable low mid day on 29th.

    Jay

    ReplyDelete
  16. Anonymous2:57 PM

    Jay, your timing is perfect. we strted move down 5 minutes early. good job.
    would you hold the shrts here and hedge for tomorrow for the limited up move?

    sam

    ReplyDelete
  17. Anonymous3:25 PM

    I'm looking to finish down Wednesday, Jay.

    ReplyDelete
  18. 3:30
    activity index just started DOWN
    and so did the mkt at 3pm

    Its hard to tell if they will open down again tomorrow

    But any rally after the open can be sold

    Will have more detail later
    Jay

    ReplyDelete
  19. Anonymous4:33 PM

    Hi Jay,

    I am holding FAZ, SKF and SRS any thoughts on it tomorrow. Do you see going to 875 or under this week.

    Ray

    ReplyDelete
  20. Anonymous4:40 PM

    Jay, same position as Ray above.

    sam

    ReplyDelete
  21. Steve7012:16 AM

    Jay -

    Really good calls today.

    I get a little frustrated at times when the market doesn't cooperate with the game plan.

    I also have one more philosophy - if a move isn't at least going to be at least 2 - 3%, I'd rather sit it out.

    There is a risk in trading and taking small gains can come back to haunt you if a big move goes against you, even with stop losses.

    I did place the Friday buys about 15 minutes early but when your life takes you out of town about 15 minutes before the low, that's just how it goes sometimes.

    Today was amzing.


    Steve70

    ReplyDelete
  22. Anonymous3:48 AM

    Today is selling time on rise - Major corrections in commodity markets, Dollar will be one man show from here..get out from index and metal stocks.. Wednesday, May 27, 2009

    Dear Members,
    Finally, Yesterday our wave of nature theory gave indication of bottom out US dollar though it gave up all gains after economy data released but still we are very much sure that dollar is moving ahead from today. We will experience one of sharp recovery in USD from here 80.17 so those who remained away from dollar shouldn't miss this opportunity of buying. Sell Euro and Swiss Franc and commodity currencies.

    Tuesday is the day of Mars, and we expect sharp fall in commodities from here. In the next fifteen days gold, silver, grains, oil and other commodities should fall around 18 to 28%. Take this opportunity of trading as these kind of trading opportunity doesn't come again quite often.

    Stock Market will top out today, sell all major indexes, sell metals and commodities stocks. We are expecting 8 to 12% fall in all major market in the next two weeks.

    At the time writing this update gold is trading at:
    Gold $950, silver at $14.52, copper $2.1280, Platinum 1145 (should fall 8% with in a week)

    Oil is at $62.48, Heating oil $1.5420 and RB gas $1.8630 (should fall 15% in ten days)

    Soybean at $1190, wheat $614 and bean oil at $3780 (Should fall 20% in three weeks)

    Dow is at 8475 and other markets are yet to open but take a opportunity of selling (sharp correction around 10% in two weeks)

    US DOLLAR Index is trading at $80.18 (we expect 83.80 during this week)

    Euro is at 1.3970, Australian 0.7844, Canadian 0.8960, Swiss Franc 0.9217 (all these currencies should fall more than 5% during this week)

    Thirty year bond is at 118.15, our target is to reach 123.80 in the next ten days.

    We believe in our theory without any doubt of even 1% so time has come for traders to build position aggressively.

    Thanks & God Bless
    Mahendra Sharma, 26 May, 6.30 AM, Mumabi - India
    www.mahendraprophecy.com

    ReplyDelete