There is the potential to start out DOWN to the low of Thsday at 8222 and spx 880 before embarking on any rally
AND
SPX 909 is STILL VERY STRONG RESISTENCE, but they had no problem reaching spx924 & dow 8590 Wed before giving up dow 370 points to 8222, and spx to 880.
The sell off Friday did NOT seem complete, and there is a 55%/13day segment at 11:29am
power index has more than one data feed, and sometimes is not an easy read- note that nothing worth $ is an easy read. however, IT STILL requires interpretation- altho granted, sometimes that is easier than other times.
having written that, we still have strong upside potential on Tues & part of Wed. After a setback late on Wed and most of Thsday, we can expect another surge on the 29th, but there is a CAVEAT which states DONT FOLLOW THE CROWD.
which IMO, means the bullish sentiment should be quite high but do avoid the urge to splurge.
then we have June2nd and 3rd for the next 8day dance- high & turn and that fits my outlook for a june 1st low, rebound on 2nd and turn down on 3rd
Its Sunday AM & I'm rambling, so have a great holiday
Jay would be great if you could post the whole chart if possible so here is the rest of the story. http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&i=p60504341891&a=164884971&r=365
This chart shows Fridays action. CCI and Stochastic's show extreme negativity which usually turns in this area. Which fits with Jays Tues. Wed. up
During a Mercury Rx 85% of the time the Dow will close within 1% of where it opened when Mercury moves SD that would put the Dow between 8460 and 8600 at Fridays close.
Astro8; yes good chart Waterfall - NO straight lines
Lets just say the MKT will FLUCTUATE but within a range from 940 to 878 with large swings As traders we need to 1. be nimble & 2. have extra cash
Yes a high is expected Mid day on 27th AND After FLUCTUATING on a Low pivot on 28th a high on 29th at 3;30 low on June1st rebound into June 3rd
Keep this in Mind
A REAL deep sell off is NOT expected until the 10th to 17th
As bears we tend to want to see the bottom fall out more often than is does, but when it does WE MUST BE READY FOR IT
Here's the main point
I sold my puts, but maybe I should have kept some- WE TEND TO THINK ALL OR NOTHING- NOT a good process, but thats the way it seems to be.
ALSO, I only bot a few calls , and IF the mkt opens down by 11:29am, SHOULD I add some more??
BUT I have a choice to make. DO I buy more calls on Tuesday on that lower open if it occurs, or wait till WEd and buy a larger position of puts??
NOW, it it opens higher and continues to run, then the mkt made the choice for me. It will also vindicate my closing out the previous position
We are ALL under settlement rules and must wait the next day to use the cash from a sale.
WE know that no matter HOW we think the mkt will work, it never seem to happen quite that way
SO once again we must be nimble AND have cash available to take advantage of larger moves such as the May22run up to 924, and subsequent fall to 880 within a few hours
Analysis and TRADING are 2 different psychologies , and we must learn to use both correctly at least 80% of the time
More Later Jay ps :thats my Sunday editorial
in Spt 2001, I was getting ready to short the mkt later in the day on 9/11, as I had appnts earlier
Needless to say I NEVER GOT the chance, and even the week after My short entry was late in the game
There is the potential to start out DOWN to the low of Thsday at 8222 and spx 880 before embarking on any rally
ReplyDeleteAND
SPX 909 is STILL VERY STRONG RESISTENCE, but they had no problem reaching spx924 & dow 8590 Wed before giving up dow 370 points to 8222, and spx to 880.
The sell off Friday did NOT seem complete, and there is a 55%/13day segment at 11:29am
power index has more than one data feed, and sometimes is not an easy read- note that nothing worth $ is an easy read.
however, IT STILL requires interpretation- altho granted, sometimes that is easier than other times.
having written that, we still have strong upside potential on Tues & part of Wed.
After a setback late on Wed and most of Thsday, we can expect
another surge on the 29th, but there is a CAVEAT which states
DONT FOLLOW THE CROWD.
which IMO, means the bullish sentiment should be quite high
but do avoid the urge to splurge.
then we have June2nd and 3rd for the next 8day dance- high & turn
and that fits my outlook for a june 1st low, rebound on 2nd and turn down on 3rd
Its Sunday AM & I'm rambling, so have a great holiday
More later
Jay
Jay would be great if you could post the whole chart if possible so here is the rest of the story.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&i=p60504341891&a=164884971&r=365
This chart shows Fridays action. CCI and Stochastic's show extreme negativity which usually turns in this area. Which fits with Jays Tues. Wed. up
OK one more.....Here is a chart of the DOW.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=60&st=2009-05-07&i=p92877759322&a=162693632&r=123
During a Mercury Rx 85% of the time the Dow will close within 1% of where it opened when Mercury moves SD that would put the Dow between 8460 and 8600 at Fridays close.
Jay,
ReplyDeleteFor clarification...i thought wed 27th was going to be the high (best place to short) which would then continue down until June2/3 ?
have i missed something?
waterfall
Astro8; yes good chart
ReplyDeleteWaterfall - NO straight lines
Lets just say the MKT will FLUCTUATE but within a range from 940 to 878 with large swings
As traders we need to
1. be nimble &
2. have extra cash
Yes a high is expected Mid day on 27th AND After FLUCTUATING on
a Low pivot on 28th
a high on 29th at 3;30
low on June1st
rebound into June 3rd
Keep this in Mind
A REAL deep sell off is NOT expected until the 10th to 17th
As bears we tend to want to see the bottom fall out more often than is does, but when it does
WE MUST BE READY FOR IT
Here's the main point
I sold my puts, but maybe I should have kept some- WE TEND TO THINK ALL OR NOTHING- NOT a good process, but thats the way it seems to be.
ALSO, I only bot a few calls
, and IF the mkt opens down by 11:29am, SHOULD I add some more??
BUT I have a choice to make.
DO I buy more calls on Tuesday on that lower open if it occurs, or wait till WEd and buy a larger position of puts??
NOW, it it opens higher and continues to run, then the mkt made the choice for me.
It will also vindicate my closing out the previous position
We are ALL under settlement rules and must wait the next day to use the cash from a sale.
WE know that no matter HOW we think the mkt will work, it never seem to happen quite that way
SO once again
we must be nimble
AND
have cash available to take advantage of larger moves
such as the May22run up to 924, and subsequent fall to 880 within a few hours
Analysis and TRADING are 2 different psychologies , and we must learn to use both correctly at least 80% of the time
More Later
Jay
ps :thats my Sunday editorial
in Spt 2001, I was getting ready to short the mkt later in the day on 9/11, as I had appnts earlier
Needless to say I NEVER GOT the chance, and even the week after
My short entry was late in the game
Thanks Jay
ReplyDeletewaterfall