UH OH

I know I sound like the person who cried WOLF once too many times

BUT

a blow off 5th wave may have just occurred this week.
Whats that mean? You ask

Simple
Monday, the real market has the potential to show its nasty fangs

could look like Niagra falls - get real you say. WELL its REAL on Monday,and many of you wont like it, unless your prepared.

Monday and Tuesday have the potential for #*^#*#*(~

Rebound on 2nd to May 8th, and then down again to 16/18th.

Thats as far as we really need to project for now.

PS;
My Ebay gold jewelry items are selling way below wholesale, and I am in the process of shipping one to Italy as I write- Yeh , I know, I cant do 2 things at once- Well I do multi task ALL the time.

Best wishes
Jay

OUT ON A LIMB

YES, Im going out on a limb right NOW

The MARKET has the POTENTIAL to make an (outside day) tomrrow- I think thats what they call it.
A lower intraday high and lower closing low
In other words - TOMRROW has the potential to make a COMPLETE and serious REVERSAL

The 5 day ARMS = 76.6
the 5 day trin = 383
the 10 day trin = 798
I have to go back to Jan 14- 2003 to get anything as severe and the dow fell 800 pts in 12 days.


As always
Best wishes
Jay

PS, I have some exquisite 14k and 18 k gold and diamond jwlry items for sale on Ebay
I am getting a solid response from the sale so far.
They are estate items selling well below wholsale
On Ebay- use "advanced search"
Use the key word =GOLD
AND
Type in my user name where it asks for seller info= Jaywiz10534
then hit search
there are 10 items on display

Tech or voodoo

Just in case you need a frame of reference for the trading indexes I mentioned yesterday

Heres TECH info that IVE been tracking for 10 yrs DAILY

How many of you keep DAILY records?

I record the DOW- SPX- Arms index- 5 day arms- ADv Decl ratio - vol ratio- 5day trin- 10 day trin

DATE- DOW --ADV/DECL ratio-- vol ratio-- 5 day arms ---5 day trin-- 10 day trin
April 20 12961----- 664----- 730----88----- 440---- 863
FEb 20 12786 ----865-------1072 --90------450-----1024
5- 10, 06- 11642- 731------ 856----91------ 455----- 971
Aug 19, 02 8991- 818--- 1527--- 80 ------400---- 970

NOw the LOWS for CONTRAST
Oct 12, 05 10217 --336---- 34-- 144------ 724---- 1173
3/10/03 7568------ 391--- 417--- 242 ----1210--- 1765
10/9/02 7286----- 341---- 244--- 151----- 757----- 1534

You can EASILY see the differences
The effects of exhuastion can be immediate or delayed a few days.
Im counting Feb 20 as the MOMENTUM high or wave3 top
Feb 27to Mar5th = Wave 4
4th waves can be very vlolent as we witnessed
April20 = PRICE top of a 5th wave

best wishes
Jay

April 20th

April 20th = BRADLEY high

the technical INTERNALS are SCREAMING SELL

10 day TRIN is at 8.83 and has been near that level for 5 days in a row

5 day trin is at 4.25 and has been ther for 10 days in a row

those are outrageous sell signals

I had written back in March and ealry April to look for a high on the 20th.

Next we should see a short term low on May 1st.

But a more important low is due on May 16 to 18

Best Wishes
Jay

Secondary High

READ back to MARCH 31st

I reported APRIL to make a HIGH going into APRIL17th.
Many of you questioned me about that projection as some of the most astute market analysts were calling for a debacle on or b4 April16.

WELL its NOW here and we are attempting to hold onto new 5yr highs.

Its Possible , a tripple top might be forming this week.

Ive been shown a graph of April1966 which emulates our current market- shows a dramatic dip starting April20 to May 16
Also look at APRIL2000 as there was a very sharp retreat, now at the 7 yr cycle
Also at the 70 yr cycle

IF not APRIL 16 ,as had been suggested by OTHERS, I have mentioned, I think, to look for severity from April20 to May16. IF I did not make that projection b4, then ITS HERE NOW>

Heres the dates to watch
April16- hi
April 18- lo
Apr 20 -HI
Apr 27 -Lo
May 8 -hi
May 17- lo

Just speculating ??
This scenario might play out as WAVE 1 DOWN in an ABC bear market trend thru Nov 2008.
SO MAY 16th would be labelled "A" , and after a rebound into Mar- April2008 = Wv "B"
Then Nov 2008 = Wv "C'
Then, for future reference, FROM THERE , IT could be OFF to DOW 17,000 by Jan 2010
DONT LAUGH at that- I was one of the only ones projecting dow 4000 back in 1982.
Best wishes
Jay

THANKS

I do appreciate those comments, even those who are upset that its not going the way we projected.

HOWEVER ,WE are getting close to the next peak.

Next week as previously mentioned has the Bradley date of April 20 as a big turn date, and long term cycles do indicate a sell off the last week of April.

ALSO this does seem to be typical action AFTER options expiration which do come late this month on the 20th.

It never ceases to amaze me how the dow has a magnet on 78.6% retracments, which takes it back to 12,525.
SPX is above its 78.6% and might attempt or FAIL to make a new high at 1460 which would be a great non confirmation.

Read recently that Margin debt in Feb reached an all time high above Jan 2000. - another bearish indicator . Anyone got a recent report, just let us know.

Nasdaq also attempting to break above the 2525, and a failure would add to the NONCONFIRMS.

One other analyst mentioned he would not be surprised to see a sharply lower open Monday, but IMO, I doubt it will stay down just yet.

There is still a potential for either Tuesday or Wed to drop off as they typically do in options week, and then come roaring back into the last 2 days up to the 20th.
The NEW moon is indicating a CHANGE

ONCE more, the BEST Shorting opp should turn out to be on the 20th, and ending on the 27th.

best wishes
Jay

Self Defeating activity

Attmepting to predict daily market action is definitely a self defeating activity.

However, they will continue to make lower highs and lower lows.

Long term cycles predict some heavy selling in late April.

just as I wrote b4, the current trend is generally up till the 20th- BUT they will continue to CHEW up bulls and bear alike. THe bulls will NOT give up easily, and they are still somewhat in control.

The 16th is 55 Calendar days from FEb 20, and should be a short term high.
There is potential for a sharp sell off right after on either the 17th or 18th.

If you think My projections are sometimes wrong, You should read some of the others who SWORE April19th would be a major disaster. There are still some insisting the market is going much higher in the next 2 months-
YOU NEVER READ THAT HERE

As always
best wishes
JAY

Dont expect PERFECTION

Tuesday's reading was best suited for WED
As MY HEADING indicates, it is almost impossible to read the market DAY BY DAY
BTW, Bruce, THIS IS NOT VOODOO nor tea leaves.
NOW thats out of the way, I make NO excuses for minor errors.

SOOO____ WHATS NEXT?

DOWN to FRiday at 3:30
There is a 259 bar hit at 3:30 and gravity effect indicating a low .

FEB 27th was ONLY the FIRST crack in the DAM

THERE IS LOTS more still COMING

THE BEST SHORTING OPP will be on FEB 17th and or 20th.
18th reading indicates LOSS OF MONEY

The MOST MONEY this month will be made on a short position from April20 to April27
BRADLEY turn date is April20.

LONG term cycles indicate a MAJOR shift ocurred on FEB 22/23rd.
And was first manifested on Feb 27th.

BEST WISHES
JAY

Market STRUGGLING

#1. There are opposing energy forces which is restricting todays upward thrust.
New information has come to light which shows this restriction.
The gravitational and planetary forces are positive against this other force + we are now at 34 trade days from FEB20.
REMINDER - April16 is 55 Calendar days from FEB20., and the next day is a new moon, and 13 trade days from March 28th.

#2. As mentioned , The PC ratios last Friday are very LOW which is bearish, which tends to keep buying somewhat limited.

Any gains today will probably be taken away tomrrow, but WED has the potential to move higher again. ITS really hard to say if it will be a higher high.- no way to know.

WE'll see today if 180 bars at 1.30pm or 204 bars at 3.30pm have the greatest effect.
But that does leave tomorrow with 259 bars at 1.30pm along with a negative influence at 2pm.
that SHOULD be the low point of the day.

Also as mentioned b4, we do expect strong selling on Thursday and Friday

AS always
best wishes
Jay

Misleading signals

I really should have picked up on that March 30/ April2nd low, but I was mislead into expecting more. Others had indicated that pivot point.

The signals are not misleading, ITS just how you read them.

Monday at 2;30 was the low at the 126 bar cycle hit, and should have been bot.
Lets not get off the track because of prior errors- WE cant expect One person to be right 100% of the time.

SO, WHATS next?/ OK, Lets explore

TODAY, the PC ratios are REALLY screaming SELL, but the actuall sell should wait for next week and or Wednesday and its really NOT much of a sell. a better sell signal should hit on the 20th. The volume and lack of vloitilty shows most are already on their wkend holiday.

I dont expect ANY bad news this wkend, NO Iran attack, and NO big market moving employment report.

SO, AM i still looking for a big move up on MONDAY? YES, I AM.
Monday, we have a combination of gravitational and planetary influences indicating a final push higher.
That rally high should linger for a couple days before giving in to some selling on Thursday and Friday April 13 and 14.

A BETTER sell OPP should come in the WEEK AFTER the 20th, which is the BRADLEY high.
As always,
Best wishes
Jay