5th wave

A 5th wave can be sudden or drag out for days, and week.

This one loooks like it will be a short one, and probalby wont pick up steam till DEc 4th.

Today was near perfect
spx hit 1489, just below the 1490 level of the low of wave 1.
11am was called for the high but the high petered out in the first 30 minutes, and the 11am was only a weak attempt.

Low hit at 90 bars at 3:00 PM.
Nothing has changed as far as Dec 11th, still going to be a monster rally starting from there.

Best Wishes

Wave 4 DONE

From July 16 on the SPX, I can count Aug 16 as the low of Wave "A"
Count Oct 11 as an iregular "B" wave higher than July 16th
That means wave "C" has got to end lower than wave B, or dow 12,500 and spx 1374

When ?
Since we got the expected 4th wave this week instead of next week, then wave 5 of the current "C" has got to start Tomorrow after about 11am.

The low is still expected to be Dec 6th, and or 10th.
Get ready to buy the 11th, and the FEd, if a 2 day meeting will cut rates by a MINIMUM of .50bp.
On Dec 18th of 1992, the fed unexpectedly cut rates by a FULL POINT, and the market blew away.
Will Mr B do that now? just a guess, but whatever it is will be well received.
Jay

show us the $$

Now that the wv 4 of 3 of "C" is out of the way we can now watch, and or short the V of 3 of "C

Next 2 days, again contrary to charts edge should take the spx under 1400.
Some targets have been proposed by others as 1352 to 1328.

Theres not much time left between now and DEc 10th for the final low of the correction from Oct 11th high, so the sell off must show its force starting now.

After the LOW this Friday, they should get a strong rebound next week to the 4th or 5th,.
That would be wv 4 of "C", then looking of course for 5 of "C"

IF your a bull, then hold onto your cash and get ready for one hell of a rally on DEc 11th which should carry thru to at least mid Jan 08. and thats just for starters.

Best Wishes
Jay

Flowing downhill

banking, mortgage& financial news keeps getting worse

Today's pc ratios seem like they tehnically could start out on the upside tommorw, but the influences are pointed down all week.

WE could see a down open, and higher close tomorrow- Tuesday Nov 27th, leading to an UP open on the 28th, but from there , IN OPPOSITION to charts edge, Im still looking for a good tradeable LOW on Friday near the close.

180 bars did count at 3;30 pm today, but was later broken, and thus we will look for the 204 bar count at 10:30/11am Tuesday for a possilbe short term trading low.

Best Wishes
Jay

Full Moons

Full moons do tend to SKEW that market into an upside mode.

Resistence today at 1442, and was hit a few mnutes ago 12:30 pm

Monday does have some potential to sell off at least until noon to 1pm

Could then rebound at the close and make another little high on Tuesday AM.

The WAVE looks like an a-b-c- X on 13th
start another series down = a on Nov 22, now looking for b thru Tues AM, then c 28th thru Nov 30.
THATS STILL not the end of the decline.
DEC 10th is the end.
Jay

trading lower

Regardless of any rally today which may or may not stand up for the day, we can still expect a rally on Monday.
MY STRATEGY

If the market fails to hold today, then I will be selling my puts at the close, and rebuying them late Monday or early Tuesday

IF not, then I am still holding them as I am still expecting another sell off or continuation of it in the "C" wave to a NOv30th LOW.

Best Wishes
Jay

Sell off about to accelerate

Friday should sell off and set a new low for this move.

Any puts you own should be closed out at 1pm.

Monday should open with a spurt, but should fizzle later

Tuesday should do just the opposite

WEd to friday stand a very good chance of making a CLIMACTIC sell off to finish the decline on Nov 30.

Anyone waiting in the wings with cash, just hold on a couple weeks till Dec 10th, then sell the farm and buy stocks, calls, etf's whatever you want. I can assure you that BANK stocks will SCREAM, as will just about everything else.

This yr the bears got the turkey and the bulls get Xmas.
Best Wishes
Jay


PS- Editing biz letters or any other written communicationscan be improved dramatically with the right editing.
Email me with any requests.

LAST 10 minutes

yesterday's close dropped off in the last 10 minutes- WHY

Today has a 204 bar count at 10am, and UNLIKE yesterday where the 126 bar count hit at 4pm on Monday, the day b4, this time it alternated and will hit at 10am.

From there, they should recover till at least 1pm.

A lower close is indicated today.

90 bars count at 11am on Friday, and 120-126 near the close at 1pm.

to get a good look at the real wave count, look at JPM, and or BAC.

Jay

BTW, anyone who needs a biz letter or other document edited, please email me.
Its just one of the other things I do for income.

17 yr High

I mentioned this b4, but look at the 17 yr cycle from oct11, 1990
5 yr Cycle from oct 2002.
After a 150 pt high, the dow dropped to -110 at 2:30 pm.
RIGHT ON 180 bars at 2:30pm, and sold all my puts.

Tomorrow has the opp to run up about 20 spx points, but friday STIll showing some severe selling could develop even tho its only a half day, and most institutional traders will be off.
I will be buying puts at 1;30pm and or the close.

Friday can take it all away and send the markets in a tail spin.

Most important date this month will be NOV 30th.

Most important date in Dec will be the 10/11th.

Best Wsihes
Jay

Nov 2007

Next week should complete minuette wave 3 of minute wave "C", and make a new low to about the 12,500 area. most likely on friday.

Still got a short term low on Tuesday, with a rebound on Wed.

Minuette wave 4 would rebound from possibly the 26th to DEC 5th with a dip on 28/29th as an intervening "b" .

Keep in mind however, the 23rd is a half day, and is wrot with negative influences & closes out at the 126 bar count

Best Wishes
Jay

Elliott wave counting

A decline can also take the form of 5 waves as this one appears to be doing.

Thus a 3rd wave can SPIKE DOWN and be devastating within that trend.
So far we have a wave 1 down off oct31 and a possilbe wave 2 either done or still in progress. Once completed, there is WAVE 3. Which can break down into 5 waves also.

Last week hit the 12th for a low as I described.
The 14th by some was supposed to be a lower low, but it obviously turned in a possible HIGH this week, unless Monday starts out on a strong note.

Heres my outlook for the balance of November
Monday Could start out positive, but even if it does, It should close down, and IF it starts down, it should be quuite severe, followed by an equal down on Tuesday.

WEd should POP UP and probably make it to the close.

Thursday, gobble gobble, and enjoy that turkey with all the trimmings.

Friday, Nov 23rd, looks like another severe selling day, but it closes at 1pm.
Coincidentally, there is a 126 bar count at 1:30, and thus 1pm falls within its influence.

The weekend of the 24th has some severe influences which should have its effect on trading on the 23rd.

A 10 day cycle is due on the 26th, but IMO, it will occur on the 23rd due to those influences as mentioned.

26 to 28th is indicated as UP
29 and 30th are expected to be DOWn days
Oct 31st.
8 TRADE day low = NOV 12th
4 day high = Nov 16th
next 4&8 day low = Nov 23
8 day high = Dec5
4 day = Dec 11
8 day = Dec 17
21 st
28 th.

As I've mentioned b4, DEc 11th should be a very important date ,a nd could be the low of 2007.
Bank stocks are getting killed.

Best Wishes

Jay

NOv 14th

Nov 14th was posted by a number of analysts as a very important date.

Many of them thought it would be a low, but it now appears it may have been an important high.

On well known analsyt has written about the importance of a NOV 22nd date, which IMO, looks like it could be an important low, if not also the 23rd.

Tommorow should open higher regardless of today, but will porbabley NOT hold up after mid day.

That means the 19th could be the straw that breaks the camels back.

Some Elliott technicians have viewed the action since oct 31st as wave 1 and 2.

For those who dont know what that means= WAVE 3 is the ultimate spike, and in the case of the present, that could be devastating to stock prices.

Best Wishes
Jay

8 day cycles

Oct 9th high - closing values
oct19 low
oct31 high
Nov 12 may hold next low and challenge of 12,850
Some of my associates prefer oct15th, and that could b possible, but more likely Tomrrow or the open of the 13th.
Then what??
Friday Nov 16 holds out he best bet for a strong ONE DAY rally
However, the NEXT 8 day cycle indicates a turning point high on NOV 23rd, leaving out the 22nd which is T day.

From an Elliott view, it would appear we are FINALLY making a real correction in which the lows will more than test Aug 16th at 12,500. Theyve already take out 1000 points in just 30 calendar days. BUT whats more remarkeable is HOW BULLISH sentiment is. After 5 yrs, theyve conditioned all of us to think bullish.

Go back to Oct/2002/march 2003, and dow around 7500
IF STILL in a bull market TREND thru 2010 which is still my guess for now until proven otherwise, we should see a market correction of at least 38.2% =about 2700 pts

When will that happen? IMO, Could take as long as next NOV before hitting such a low- others are claiming a PEI relationship to previous important dates ending on March 22 of 2008.

The MOST important NEAR TERM date IMO is DEC 11th.
In 1994, Jupiter and Pluto conjucntion ACTUALLY started the whole rally from about 4500 level to the first big target at 11,725 in yr 2000. THAT conjunction ocurrs again this yr on DEC 11th.
An important inflection point, and maybe a short term bottom with DEC 22nd as a retest.

Best Wishes
Jay

Its NOW or Never

There is an analyst using whats called the Hindenburg omen, and he claims there has been a cluster of hit within the last month, which is required as just one hit is just not enuf.

OEX pc ratio = 1.25 just moderate
CBOE pc ratio = .98 ditto
SPX 500 ratio = 1.47 Ditto
VIX ratio which was .67 yesterday today is .20- overwhelming calls over puts= contrary is bearish

WCA graph shows marekt down next 2 days

MY Gravity indicator is on a sell

Dollar getting as low as it can get, according to one analyst, almost at bottom.

Monday's low hit at 126 bars at 2.00 to 2:30

extending the count to Thursday close would be 180 bars OR Friday's open.

IF all goes according to plan, get ready to BUY the friday open low, and dont look back till at least the 23rd.

Best Wishes
Jay

Market expectations

The Market has come to expect rallies after every large hit;

Feb fooled around a little, and then recovered.

August dropped and recovered


Oct 11th dropped after and recovered

SO WHY NOT NOW ??
just got a rate cut to boot

Why the market wont rally so fast- Because they expect it to.
But thats not the real reason
Support levels are at 1496 spx which was touched
Once broken, then look to 1470 - 1460

Many of my associates have mentioned that level
some are thinkng 1455, but maybe or not.

Best Wisahes
Jay

More to go

My internal indicators are telling me theres moreof today still coming

I had mentioned a negative bias thru the 6th after the fed rate cut.

Today;s ARMS index was only 2.80, not a romping 5.00 or more.


My Propietary volume and Adv deline index is at 786, and 1129; leaving PLENTY of ROOM to get under 400, where those levels have NEVER failed to indicate a rally.

and the 5 day arms is only at 6.26, and no where near enuf to scream BUY.

The futures did close down substantialy

today's bar hits were right on target126 at the open = 10am
180 at 2pm
204 at the close

Tomorrow's bar hits
259 at 2pm
might be the low of the day

There seems to be an 8.6 day cycle in play which did occur at 3pm on WEd
the next 8.6 trade cycle = Nov 13, my Bday, hmmm.
Somtimes cycle shift, and if it extends to the 16th, it could become a 10 day or 68 hr cyle which ive tracked b4 from time to time.
Since the 16th is OPTIONS, and there are no negative influences to stop it, it might just do that.

Jay