March 28 = 13 trade days from March 9th and 26 tr days from Feb 20, a short term low was hit.
ELLIOTT WAVE "A"
Next 2 days = a VERY weak rebound
ELLIOTT WVE "B' , I think
Today's reading was perfect= INDECISION, as previously mentioned
Whats NEXT ? Should be EllIOTT WAVE "C"
MY timing suggests APRIL4th for the LOW
What does that mean?
ELLIOTT wave "C" suggest a VERY hard hit
It should be OBVIOUS on MONDAY- Tuesday and WED with NO reprieve until Thursday and of course the market is closed on Good Friday.
Unlike my previous outllook for Tuesday, it has 180 bars at 12:30 and 204 bars at 2:30
And the pressure should NOT let up.
Apirl 4th = 18 tr days from March 9th.
The 4th has a negative influence at 2:16pm, 259 bars at noon, and 30 bars at 3pm, which , IMO, would be THE TIMES TO CLOSE OUT ALL MY PUT positions. take your pic.
I seem to be in the minority as there are many analysts indicating April as a severe market month, and for the most part, I am forecasting the opposite. My timing shows that May10 to may 20 should be where that severity hits.
As most of you already know, My work indicates a huge rebound Starting on April9th and ending on April 17th new moon to April 20th which is the Bradley date.
SO- simply stated
IF we do get a decline Next week as suggested, then BUY on the 5th, and get buckled in for the moon shot.
The 5th reading calls for an OK start- mid day drop, and OK finish
As always
Best Wishes
Jay
THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023
THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023
Saturday, March 31, 2007
Thursday, March 29, 2007
looking for that ALLUSIVE bottom
I really dont think we have found it yet;
Sure we are OVERSOLD, and can stay that way until the WAVE finishes its work
Lets look at the wave count
Got an "A" wave down to spx 1374 and DOW 12.050
Got a B wave REBOUND to 1437 and 12,481- Both little higher than FIBO
NOW we have really got to expect a "C" wave to at least the previous low or even lower.
Then the QUESTION is WHEN?
Yesterday marked 13 days and we stalled, but didnt bottom, maybe?
THE LOW of today HIT exactly at 2;30 and 60 bars- thats really incredible accuracy.
TOmoorw, we have a 90 bar hit at 10:30, and a symmetry cycle hit at 11:40.
Well we know that the 90 bar cycle has to be a low, thus the 11:40 has got to be a high and it should drop from there.
Then what about Monday? good question.
Monday is a full MOON and the magnetic energy is HIGH meaning a pressure day, and it continues into Tuesday until 150 bars at 10AM. There are also some accompanying negative influences as well.
TYPICALLY when we get a strong Monday DOWN we get spill over into a TYPICAL turn around Tuesday in thw first hour.
OK , Jay what happened to UP days on the first day of the new month ?
THE forecasted magnetic energy CHANGED this week- Got to realize those numbers that go out 45 days are only forecasts, and until we get much closer to the actual date, those values can change drastically . Even the Gravitational forces which peak tonight can have varying effects.
NOTHING is precise - excpet the market of course.
We mentioned the 4th and 5th as rough days, but also said they dont have the high pressure of the 2nd and 3rd, so even if the market lingers, there shouldnt be any more damage. Of course it becomes a really good place to get long and that hasnt changed.
Some one pointed out that DEBKA frequently prints exagerations, so an attack on Iran is probably highly unlikely- but the WORLD powers should keep up the pressure and cut off $$.
Best Wishes,
Jay
Sure we are OVERSOLD, and can stay that way until the WAVE finishes its work
Lets look at the wave count
Got an "A" wave down to spx 1374 and DOW 12.050
Got a B wave REBOUND to 1437 and 12,481- Both little higher than FIBO
NOW we have really got to expect a "C" wave to at least the previous low or even lower.
Then the QUESTION is WHEN?
Yesterday marked 13 days and we stalled, but didnt bottom, maybe?
THE LOW of today HIT exactly at 2;30 and 60 bars- thats really incredible accuracy.
TOmoorw, we have a 90 bar hit at 10:30, and a symmetry cycle hit at 11:40.
Well we know that the 90 bar cycle has to be a low, thus the 11:40 has got to be a high and it should drop from there.
Then what about Monday? good question.
Monday is a full MOON and the magnetic energy is HIGH meaning a pressure day, and it continues into Tuesday until 150 bars at 10AM. There are also some accompanying negative influences as well.
TYPICALLY when we get a strong Monday DOWN we get spill over into a TYPICAL turn around Tuesday in thw first hour.
OK , Jay what happened to UP days on the first day of the new month ?
THE forecasted magnetic energy CHANGED this week- Got to realize those numbers that go out 45 days are only forecasts, and until we get much closer to the actual date, those values can change drastically . Even the Gravitational forces which peak tonight can have varying effects.
NOTHING is precise - excpet the market of course.
We mentioned the 4th and 5th as rough days, but also said they dont have the high pressure of the 2nd and 3rd, so even if the market lingers, there shouldnt be any more damage. Of course it becomes a really good place to get long and that hasnt changed.
Some one pointed out that DEBKA frequently prints exagerations, so an attack on Iran is probably highly unlikely- but the WORLD powers should keep up the pressure and cut off $$.
Best Wishes,
Jay
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
IT gets TRICKY NOW
PC ratios are up there, but is that enuf to turn them tomorrow?
Debka reported we are planning to hit Iran nuke sites on April6th- I think we've heard this b4, and its always during the Navy's show of strength in the Pesian Gulf.
IT matters NOT to the market if it happens or NOT, the 9th will still be explosive UP.
The 78 hr cycle can stretch to 86 hrs and that takes us to 11am on Friday . One other source has indicated a SPECIAL time sequence at that hour, from which they either rally or dive.
My suspicion right NOW seems to favor a LOW getting hit on that cycle time, and a rally into April3rd. The Gravitational efffect also favors a LOW at that point.
WE usually get LAST day of month and First 2 days of new month UP.
What else can I mention? Hmm.
Got 377 Fibo weeks = a low due this week- Yeh but HOW LOW is LOW??
A 37 day low to low CYCLE from FEb9th takes us to April4th. We are in the declining phase of that cycle and day 34 is tomorrow. Wave wsie, they really SHOULD make a lower low than 12,050, even if its intraday on Friday AM. ???
After market Futures did close + 1.73, but IF any other news hits ovenight, that could be overtaken in the AM<>
The daily reading for tomorrow is still negative calling anxiety and seperations, work alone, avoid groups. Sort of tells me it wont be a nice day, unless your short, of course. Friday calls for rebellion, arguments, indecision- which could swap with thursday, but either one supports a declining market.
Todays reading was perfect= FACE PROBLEMS, and Bernanke set the stage- WE HAVE PROBLEMS with the economy.
I guess thats all I can think of.
As Always
Best Wishes
Jay
Debka reported we are planning to hit Iran nuke sites on April6th- I think we've heard this b4, and its always during the Navy's show of strength in the Pesian Gulf.
IT matters NOT to the market if it happens or NOT, the 9th will still be explosive UP.
The 78 hr cycle can stretch to 86 hrs and that takes us to 11am on Friday . One other source has indicated a SPECIAL time sequence at that hour, from which they either rally or dive.
My suspicion right NOW seems to favor a LOW getting hit on that cycle time, and a rally into April3rd. The Gravitational efffect also favors a LOW at that point.
WE usually get LAST day of month and First 2 days of new month UP.
What else can I mention? Hmm.
Got 377 Fibo weeks = a low due this week- Yeh but HOW LOW is LOW??
A 37 day low to low CYCLE from FEb9th takes us to April4th. We are in the declining phase of that cycle and day 34 is tomorrow. Wave wsie, they really SHOULD make a lower low than 12,050, even if its intraday on Friday AM. ???
After market Futures did close + 1.73, but IF any other news hits ovenight, that could be overtaken in the AM<>
The daily reading for tomorrow is still negative calling anxiety and seperations, work alone, avoid groups. Sort of tells me it wont be a nice day, unless your short, of course. Friday calls for rebellion, arguments, indecision- which could swap with thursday, but either one supports a declining market.
Todays reading was perfect= FACE PROBLEMS, and Bernanke set the stage- WE HAVE PROBLEMS with the economy.
I guess thats all I can think of.
As Always
Best Wishes
Jay
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
No changes
I waited for today's close as I anticpated NO rally at the close,and they actually dropped a bit.
the PC ratios are climbing , but not screaming buy just yet.
I read somone elses blog service- a free week, and By the third sentence i was falling asleep
Much too wordy-
PLEASE - come to the POINT.
all those pretty charts and graphs, and he still left me wondering.
My appologies for not recognizing last week's lift a little sooner, we will make every effort not to let
that happen again- NO guarantees, but certainly more fore thought.
Anyway
WHATS NEXT ??
Mr B testifies in Congress, and the BULLS are smiling ear to ear - HAHA, I think the joke will be on them THIS WEEK.
WE are in a DOWN cycle till EITHER Tomorrows CLOSE or at 10AM on Thursday
After a bounce for a couple days Friday to Tuesday, we still need to get past the 4th and 5th, but the NEGATIVE energy should not be as severe as Tomorrow. but lets see what tmorrow brings first.
I still want to impress how important it will be to get LONG on the 5th and or 6th.
APRIL9th STILL holds out the promise for a very very big day UP. ANd that should keep them going till the 17th.
As always
Best wishes
Jay
the PC ratios are climbing , but not screaming buy just yet.
I read somone elses blog service- a free week, and By the third sentence i was falling asleep
Much too wordy-
PLEASE - come to the POINT.
all those pretty charts and graphs, and he still left me wondering.
My appologies for not recognizing last week's lift a little sooner, we will make every effort not to let
that happen again- NO guarantees, but certainly more fore thought.
Anyway
WHATS NEXT ??
Mr B testifies in Congress, and the BULLS are smiling ear to ear - HAHA, I think the joke will be on them THIS WEEK.
WE are in a DOWN cycle till EITHER Tomorrows CLOSE or at 10AM on Thursday
After a bounce for a couple days Friday to Tuesday, we still need to get past the 4th and 5th, but the NEGATIVE energy should not be as severe as Tomorrow. but lets see what tmorrow brings first.
I still want to impress how important it will be to get LONG on the 5th and or 6th.
APRIL9th STILL holds out the promise for a very very big day UP. ANd that should keep them going till the 17th.
As always
Best wishes
Jay
Thursday, March 22, 2007
Equinox HIGHS
I really have to give the upside more leeway.
Sometimes I get too intense on being defensive.
The trend should begin to move lower from here to eternity(NO) just kidding(G)
The NEXT important date to be aware of is March28th; SHOULD be a LOW
Cycles are 13 trade days from March 9th, and 26 from FEb 20, a double 13.
There are some who are considering a very steep decline next week.
We'll hold out our judgment on that until we see it.
Howver, IT does appear the WAVE count might agree.
After that, April 4th would be the next important date for a secondary trading low.
If you wanted to sit back and watch till April 5th, you could do that and get ready to SELL the farm and buy stocks, calls, etf's whatever your choice for a WHOPPER rally that should carry to April 17th before running into resistence.
My appology for using terminology that some of you are not familiar with, and I will try to refrain from getting too technical, and just give you the expected outcome from my analysis.
All the BEST
Jay
Sometimes I get too intense on being defensive.
The trend should begin to move lower from here to eternity(NO) just kidding(G)
The NEXT important date to be aware of is March28th; SHOULD be a LOW
Cycles are 13 trade days from March 9th, and 26 from FEb 20, a double 13.
There are some who are considering a very steep decline next week.
We'll hold out our judgment on that until we see it.
Howver, IT does appear the WAVE count might agree.
After that, April 4th would be the next important date for a secondary trading low.
If you wanted to sit back and watch till April 5th, you could do that and get ready to SELL the farm and buy stocks, calls, etf's whatever your choice for a WHOPPER rally that should carry to April 17th before running into resistence.
My appology for using terminology that some of you are not familiar with, and I will try to refrain from getting too technical, and just give you the expected outcome from my analysis.
All the BEST
Jay
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
FIBO PRICE TARGETS
I did BUY into the rally last week, but lost my nerve and got short too soon, but still got more $$ to catch the higher level.
REVIEW from March 13th.
Spx LOST 86 pts from 1460 to 1374
Fibo retracement
40% = Spx to 1407
50% to Spx 1417
Now at 1410, could spike to 1417
Tomorow is 21 TRADE days from FEB20
Previous turns ocurred at 5, 8 and 13 days
Today is spring Equinox
Also a Bradley psychological turn date
ELLIOTT wave Chart shows 5 waves DOWN to March 5th
A & B completed on 13th
Now completing C-2
WE ALL know what happens NEXT in wave 3
Could drag out 5 waves WITHIN wave 3 - taking us to April 4th- 5th before ending.
Jay
REVIEW from March 13th.
Spx LOST 86 pts from 1460 to 1374
Fibo retracement
40% = Spx to 1407
50% to Spx 1417
Now at 1410, could spike to 1417
Tomorow is 21 TRADE days from FEB20
Previous turns ocurred at 5, 8 and 13 days
Today is spring Equinox
Also a Bradley psychological turn date
ELLIOTT wave Chart shows 5 waves DOWN to March 5th
A & B completed on 13th
Now completing C-2
WE ALL know what happens NEXT in wave 3
Could drag out 5 waves WITHIN wave 3 - taking us to April 4th- 5th before ending.
Jay
Monday, March 19, 2007
Monday Comment
Got short on Friday, but left a little cash to add on today.
Interesting reading today
DONT reach out for the BRASS ring just yet- The REAL action starts in a day or 2.
Interesting so far we have seen the market react to Mr G in a negative way and Mr B mostly positively.
The cycles SEEM to be saying that MR B will spoil that party this time.
the next 2 Bradley dates are March 20, shown on the chart as a LOW, and April 20 shown as a high.
It looks like march 20 will turn in a high, and according to my work so will April20.
Well what happens in between? good question, lets explore.
We had 13 TRADE days from FEB20 to march 9
March 9 + 18 = April 4th
March 9 + 13 = March 28
April 4th to April23rd = 13 days
Add 13 tr day again = may 10th
mentioned b4 = the one yr anniv of last years Spring time high
Since TODAY, A Monday, is looking SOOO good, we might expect next Monday to look just as good BUT only to the bears, and probably lilnger thru the 28th.
In fact, the reading for the 29th says to MAKE changes.
Jay
Interesting reading today
DONT reach out for the BRASS ring just yet- The REAL action starts in a day or 2.
Interesting so far we have seen the market react to Mr G in a negative way and Mr B mostly positively.
The cycles SEEM to be saying that MR B will spoil that party this time.
the next 2 Bradley dates are March 20, shown on the chart as a LOW, and April 20 shown as a high.
It looks like march 20 will turn in a high, and according to my work so will April20.
Well what happens in between? good question, lets explore.
We had 13 TRADE days from FEB20 to march 9
March 9 + 18 = April 4th
March 9 + 13 = March 28
April 4th to April23rd = 13 days
Add 13 tr day again = may 10th
mentioned b4 = the one yr anniv of last years Spring time high
Since TODAY, A Monday, is looking SOOO good, we might expect next Monday to look just as good BUT only to the bears, and probably lilnger thru the 28th.
In fact, the reading for the 29th says to MAKE changes.
Jay
Sunday, March 18, 2007
"Whats NEXT"
As previously mentioned , we will take it week by week for the most part.
There are many sites and analysts who rant about what happened last week and how much $ they made;
BAhhh- Humbug Tell us WHATS NEXT, thats what traders want to read.
This week the best bet for a profitable trade seems to be on the SHORT side-
HOW and when?
IT's NOT going to be easy- IS IT EVER?, no, of course not.
Monday The MARKET should sell off . IT might NOT start off that way, but it would only give us an opp to add to our shorts.
Tuesday, HOWEVER has some positive influences that COULD provide a bounce- HOW HIGH? you ask- NO way to know. SO what should we DO? --- ACT defensive and take profits.
You can always get short again at the day's close.
I dont think we will see one soon, BUT WE dont want to get caught up in one to those 300 point rally days.
Tends to make us irritable and profitless.
NOTE
Just as the markets get overbot for long periods of time in a bull market run, they also get oversold and stay that way during extended corrections.
Thus the constant HIGH PC ratios
Im anticipating the BEST profits from MY short trade to occur on WED and Thursday till about 3PM.
Some are also projecting the week after as a continuation of the downtrend, but I HAVE SINCERE doubts about that.
The winner on the CNBC contest this week will probably be the person who lost the least $
More about next week, next weekend
All the best as always
Jay
There are many sites and analysts who rant about what happened last week and how much $ they made;
BAhhh- Humbug Tell us WHATS NEXT, thats what traders want to read.
This week the best bet for a profitable trade seems to be on the SHORT side-
HOW and when?
IT's NOT going to be easy- IS IT EVER?
Monday The MARKET should sell off . IT might NOT start off that way, but it would only give us an opp to add to our shorts.
Tuesday, HOWEVER has some positive influences that COULD provide a bounce- HOW HIGH? you ask- NO way to know. SO what should we DO? --- ACT defensive and take profits.
You can always get short again at the day's close.
I dont think we will see one soon, BUT WE dont want to get caught up in one to those 300 point rally days.
Tends to make us irritable and profitless.
NOTE
Just as the markets get overbot for long periods of time in a bull market run, they also get oversold and stay that way during extended corrections.
Thus the constant HIGH PC ratios
Im anticipating the BEST profits from MY short trade to occur on WED and Thursday till about 3PM.
Some are also projecting the week after as a continuation of the downtrend, but I HAVE SINCERE doubts about that.
The winner on the CNBC contest this week will probably be the person who lost the least $
More about next week, next weekend
All the best as always
Jay
Friday, March 16, 2007
About the AUTHOR
FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
Frankly, my career with a major US corporation as an account executive the past 15 years has been a detriment to my ability to analyze and trade the market. I would always be in the wrong place at the wrong timeand could not accomplish the right trades. Well all that is now changing. I can now devote all my time to one endeavor. A former millionaire partner once told me I had 90%. He did not mean it as a compliment, but as far as the markets are concerned I will take 90% anytime.
My first stock purchase was sold to me by my insurance agent , also a broker. It promptly fell from $12.00 to $2.00. I consider that a good experience as it sent me on a crusade for knowledge. It was the 70's and enter Joe Granville, stage left. I learned what he had to offer as he was the only game in town at that time. Now there are hundreds of market timers. Most will tell you where the market has been,but not "WHATS NEXT".
They provide mountains of info and pages of charts - AAARG overload!! leaves you with nothing. just shows how smart they are.
HISTORY
ON FEb 23rd, I warned about a market slide coming on Tuesday FEb27th and so it happened-- the market fell 415pts. The week after I projected a rally into March 9th and we got just that. The week after I warned about weakness from 12th to 15th, and the dow fell on the 13th by 242pts. Now we posted information leading me to SHORT the close on Friday March 16th. Had expected for a rally on the 16th, but it fizzled out in the first 15 minutes. I STILL shorted the close and at this point waiting for Monday's slide.
As Always
Best wishes,
Jay
Right on Track today
There was a little high at 10:19 accompanied by a minor positive influence
Since there is a minor negative inlfuence at 11am and 90 bars at 11:30, I am anticipating a low at which time I will be adding to my long purchase at yesterday's close.
Its impossible to know influence above will have a greater impact.
Still intend to SELL the close today no matter what happens
Will provide WHATS NEXT on Sunday.
All the best
Jay
Since there is a minor negative inlfuence at 11am and 90 bars at 11:30, I am anticipating a low at which time I will be adding to my long purchase at yesterday's close.
Its impossible to know influence above will have a greater impact.
Still intend to SELL the close today no matter what happens
Will provide WHATS NEXT on Sunday.
All the best
Jay
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Tomorrow Morning
It will TICK me off to NO end if tomrrow opens down 100 pts;
However, I did BUY only a 1/2 long position
The reading for tomorow calls for EARLY ANXIETY with improvement during the day;
I will double up if we do get an early dip, and still short the close
Jay
Todays DIP on Greeny's big mouth occurred at 30 to 36 bars
Tomrrow has 90 bars at 11;30 if i count from 10:30 am today
However, I did BUY only a 1/2 long position
The reading for tomorow calls for EARLY ANXIETY with improvement during the day;
I will double up if we do get an early dip, and still short the close
Jay
Todays DIP on Greeny's big mouth occurred at 30 to 36 bars
Tomrrow has 90 bars at 11;30 if i count from 10:30 am today
Toying with us today- its noon
If there is going to be a sell off today, it will most likely occur in the last hour.
negative inlfuence at 352Pm
329 bars at 4pm
because WEd hit a low at FIBO 204-210 bars, then according to Stan Harley, we should expect the next cycle hit at 329.
Tommorw should OPEN with BANG + 100 pts and continue from there.
Im holding my breadth and waiting out the day. thursday that is.
I will be shorting the close tomorrow if my rally occurs as described.
All the best
Jay
negative inlfuence at 352Pm
329 bars at 4pm
because WEd hit a low at FIBO 204-210 bars, then according to Stan Harley, we should expect the next cycle hit at 329.
Tommorw should OPEN with BANG + 100 pts and continue from there.
Im holding my breadth and waiting out the day. thursday that is.
I will be shorting the close tomorrow if my rally occurs as described.
All the best
Jay
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
STILL on Track for Friday
I love it when Maria gets so excited over a 50 pt rally. AHHG - throw up..
Market took a hit at the 204 to 210 bar cycle today at 12:30 to 1pm.
also got an AM hit at 10;30 at 180 bars
The BAR cycle RYTHM is the BEST tool Ive ever seen for DAY TRADERS- NOT my cup of tea.
IM HOPING im right about tomorow, because IVE held OFF buying and hoping to catch the PRE option expiration lows tomorrow. They want to SUCK in as many bears as they can to WRING them out to dry on Friday.
Hopefully that means a lower day tomrrow.
Got 259 bars at 10:30 AM
Got EITHER 60 bars at 3:30 or because they hit at 210 bars today, it could close the day at 329 bars at 4pm for the LOW. Wouldnt that be NICE to LOAD up on calls right at the worst level of the day at the CLOSE-
Gold and silver should enjoy a pop on Friday also, the XAU / gold ratio hit 5.00 yesterday- that deserves a pop also.
Best Wishes
Jay
Market took a hit at the 204 to 210 bar cycle today at 12:30 to 1pm.
also got an AM hit at 10;30 at 180 bars
The BAR cycle RYTHM is the BEST tool Ive ever seen for DAY TRADERS- NOT my cup of tea.
IM HOPING im right about tomorow, because IVE held OFF buying and hoping to catch the PRE option expiration lows tomorrow. They want to SUCK in as many bears as they can to WRING them out to dry on Friday.
Hopefully that means a lower day tomrrow.
Got 259 bars at 10:30 AM
Got EITHER 60 bars at 3:30 or because they hit at 210 bars today, it could close the day at 329 bars at 4pm for the LOW. Wouldnt that be NICE to LOAD up on calls right at the worst level of the day at the CLOSE-
Gold and silver should enjoy a pop on Friday also, the XAU / gold ratio hit 5.00 yesterday- that deserves a pop also.
Best Wishes
Jay
BIG rally BREWING, but NOT today
Today's key times are as follows
negative influence of 180 bars at 10;30 AM
minor positive influence at 11:46 am
negative 204 bars at 12;30
Negative influence after market at 3:22pm
Im getting ready to BUY a POTENTIAL huge rally on FRIDAY, but Im going to wait till late Thursday as the electromagnetic energy levels remain high thru Thursday.
today, overall calls for a better day than yesterday- thats quite obvious- very rarely will we get 2 days like yesterday back to back.
CBOE- PC ratio quite high at 1.45 = bullish
OEX pc ratio = 1.38 also bullish
spx 500 pc ratio =2.18 ditto
Vix 18.23 = Ditto
SO, its just a matter of waiting for the wave count to complete its downside action.
best wishes
Jay
PS; I did warn you to take your profits yesterday on any shorts or puts that you might have bot on Friday.
negative influence of 180 bars at 10;30 AM
minor positive influence at 11:46 am
negative 204 bars at 12;30
Negative influence after market at 3:22pm
Im getting ready to BUY a POTENTIAL huge rally on FRIDAY, but Im going to wait till late Thursday as the electromagnetic energy levels remain high thru Thursday.
today, overall calls for a better day than yesterday- thats quite obvious- very rarely will we get 2 days like yesterday back to back.
CBOE- PC ratio quite high at 1.45 = bullish
OEX pc ratio = 1.38 also bullish
spx 500 pc ratio =2.18 ditto
Vix 18.23 = Ditto
SO, its just a matter of waiting for the wave count to complete its downside action.
best wishes
Jay
PS; I did warn you to take your profits yesterday on any shorts or puts that you might have bot on Friday.
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Forget SPX 1407
We wont see spx 1407 again, not this week, and maybe not until 2009, but thats another story for another time.
Needless to say, I did not anticipate such a deep hit today. The ONLY clue I had for a dip today came from the electromagnetic energy level at 15.
Some one pointed out that today was 21 calendar days from FEb 20th.
Thats NOT something I usually track, but coming off a major 4 year TOP, I guess we can use that data.
THE NEXT level on that track would be 34 days and March 26th.
I THINK I will NOt prognosticate about DAILY action.
This week is moving LOWER, and should end in a rebound rally starting on Thrusday and completing on Friday.
Best Wishes
Jay
Needless to say, I did not anticipate such a deep hit today. The ONLY clue I had for a dip today came from the electromagnetic energy level at 15.
Some one pointed out that today was 21 calendar days from FEb 20th.
Thats NOT something I usually track, but coming off a major 4 year TOP, I guess we can use that data.
THE NEXT level on that track would be 34 days and March 26th.
I THINK I will NOt prognosticate about DAILY action.
This week is moving LOWER, and should end in a rebound rally starting on Thrusday and completing on Friday.
Best Wishes
Jay
A DAY LATE
WOW, thats what I expected from Yesterday, but better late than never.
today has a negative influence at 2:36 accompanied with a 150 bar hit. Dont know how potent that 150 bar hit will be but that time zone should present a minor turn and recovery to some extent.
There is still the problem of 180 at 10:30 TOMORROW and could setup the open for a dip.
heres some numbers to watch.
The DOW gained 280 pts from the LOW of 12,050
50% retrace = 140 pts DOWN
60% retrace = 170 pts
Today should hold those numbers and we should STILL see a rally on Friday back to 1407.
It REALLY doesnt look like 1417 can be achieved.
The rebound forming an ELLIOTT wave FLAT at 1407 would confirm a VERY WEAK market.
The SLIDE should accelerate from March 19th to the 22nd, with only minor one day or half day bounces along the way. According to another anaylyst, the acceleration might continue to March 30th
I dont want to get TOO far ahead and lose sight of the more IMMEDIATE time zone-WE will take it
WEEK by WEEK.
Its 1:30 on Tuesday, and so far it looks like -140 will hold.
If you did buy puts on Friday, I would venture to guess they are PROFITABLE, but ONLY if you sell them.
best wishes
Jay
today has a negative influence at 2:36 accompanied with a 150 bar hit. Dont know how potent that 150 bar hit will be but that time zone should present a minor turn and recovery to some extent.
There is still the problem of 180 at 10:30 TOMORROW and could setup the open for a dip.
heres some numbers to watch.
The DOW gained 280 pts from the LOW of 12,050
50% retrace = 140 pts DOWN
60% retrace = 170 pts
Today should hold those numbers and we should STILL see a rally on Friday back to 1407.
It REALLY doesnt look like 1417 can be achieved.
The rebound forming an ELLIOTT wave FLAT at 1407 would confirm a VERY WEAK market.
The SLIDE should accelerate from March 19th to the 22nd, with only minor one day or half day bounces along the way. According to another anaylyst, the acceleration might continue to March 30th
I dont want to get TOO far ahead and lose sight of the more IMMEDIATE time zone-WE will take it
WEEK by WEEK.
Its 1:30 on Tuesday, and so far it looks like -140 will hold.
If you did buy puts on Friday, I would venture to guess they are PROFITABLE, but ONLY if you sell them.
best wishes
Jay
Monday, March 12, 2007
DIRECTION NOT CL:EAR
Thats what I wrote LAST WEEK, AND one thing still REMAINS CONSTANT
This week is looking like an interim roller coaster ride.
SELL THE RALLIES
THE GAME this week is to make it above 1407, and THEN attempt to get to 1417
Heres now it plays out.
LAST year the MARKETS and GOLD topped on MAY 10th
spx at 1325
Now lets do some math
WATCH THIS !
1460 - 1374= 86 pts
86 x 38.2% = 33 + 1374 = 1407
OR
86 X 50% = 43 + 1374 = 1417
eachtime it looks like 1407 will hold, so far it has failed
BTW- Today had a POSITIVE influence at 2:27pm and 90 bars at 4pm
NOW lets move on to more important timing.
Its took 63 hrs to go from Feb 20 to March 5 Top to bottom
The next leg a _rebound HIGH_ ocurred on March 9th = 78 hrs= 13 TRADE days
Now we are looking for the NEXT high to occur on the 18 cycle TRADE days= March 16th.
Heres what I see
Mar 9 + 13 = March 28
Mar 9 + 18 = April 4th
both have influences that SHOULD occur with market lows.
April 16th is 13 days from March 28th and has another set of hard influences that should continue to see markets declining.
April 23rd is 18 days from March 28th and could provide a short terrm rebound high as the energy influences that day are somewhat positive as are the preceding 5 days.
THIS IS REALLY FASCINATING
MAY 10TH - 2007 is 55/56 days from FEB 20
AND
13 TRADE days from April 23rd
THATS WHERE I THINK the BOTTOM will occur.
How about PRICE LEVELS, you ask?
OK, lets explore.
WE got 86 spx pts hair cut and a 33 pt rebound
Lets use 1407 for now to do the math.
1407 - 86 pts = 1325
WATCH THIS !! whats 1325, THATS RIGHT -the 2006 HIGH
WATCH THIS AGAIN. MAY 10 = the 2006 HIGH
IF those levels are taken out on April 16th, then we will have to redo the math.
Something I am forgetting, will write it once I remember- could not have been too important
I wud rite in sht hnd lik da chief, but I hate reading it.
best wishes
Jay
This week is looking like an interim roller coaster ride.
SELL THE RALLIES
THE GAME this week is to make it above 1407, and THEN attempt to get to 1417
Heres now it plays out.
LAST year the MARKETS and GOLD topped on MAY 10th
spx at 1325
Now lets do some math
WATCH THIS !
1460 - 1374= 86 pts
86 x 38.2% = 33 + 1374 = 1407
OR
86 X 50% = 43 + 1374 = 1417
eachtime it looks like 1407 will hold, so far it has failed
BTW- Today had a POSITIVE influence at 2:27pm and 90 bars at 4pm
NOW lets move on to more important timing.
Its took 63 hrs to go from Feb 20 to March 5 Top to bottom
The next leg a _rebound HIGH_ ocurred on March 9th = 78 hrs= 13 TRADE days
Now we are looking for the NEXT high to occur on the 18 cycle TRADE days= March 16th.
Heres what I see
Mar 9 + 13 = March 28
Mar 9 + 18 = April 4th
both have influences that SHOULD occur with market lows.
April 16th is 13 days from March 28th and has another set of hard influences that should continue to see markets declining.
April 23rd is 18 days from March 28th and could provide a short terrm rebound high as the energy influences that day are somewhat positive as are the preceding 5 days.
THIS IS REALLY FASCINATING
MAY 10TH - 2007 is 55/56 days from FEB 20
AND
13 TRADE days from April 23rd
THATS WHERE I THINK the BOTTOM will occur.
How about PRICE LEVELS, you ask?
OK, lets explore.
WE got 86 spx pts hair cut and a 33 pt rebound
Lets use 1407 for now to do the math.
1407 - 86 pts = 1325
WATCH THIS !! whats 1325, THATS RIGHT -the 2006 HIGH
WATCH THIS AGAIN. MAY 10 = the 2006 HIGH
IF those levels are taken out on April 16th, then we will have to redo the math.
Something I am forgetting, will write it once I remember- could not have been too important
I wud rite in sht hnd lik da chief, but I hate reading it.
best wishes
Jay
Sunday, March 11, 2007
CYCLES and observations
Next week has NO clear direction until March 16th
On March 16th.
Harmonic cluster of positive influences
18 day high to high cycle progression
the NEXT 13 day progression from yesterday is March 28th= 78 hours- SHOULD BE A LOW
According to one analyst the Seasonal DOW CYCLE in BUY October 16th and SELL April20
OBVIOUSLY - from year to year those dates can vary. This YR it looks like FEB 20.
The Bradley March 10th date matches my 13 day cycle high of March 9th.
March 20 is the next Bradley date, and MY projection for march 16th is close enuf.
April 20 is the Next Bradley date, and on Most charts it is shown as a high- BUT MAY NOT end up as teh high of 2007, we might have alrady seen that on Feb 20th.
Someone also pointed out FEB23rd as a ARMSTRONG 8.6yr cycle CHANGE.
Heres the JAYWIZ date progression;
March 9th high
March 16th high, maybe higher or NOT- who cares get short by the close
March 28 = a LOW = 13 trade days after March 9th
April has MANY turn dates, and is NOT quite clear until we get a little closer to the month, but for all intensive purposes, these dates should work out quite well.
April 4th= A LOW = 18 trade days after March 9th.
April 11 high -
april 16th an IMPORTANT LOW also 55 calendar days after FEB20.
April 20th rebound
May 20 does look like the NEXT most important date, should be a Low.
I was doing some GANN geometric squares last year off the May10th HIGH, but gave up after a while.
best wishes,
Jay
On March 16th.
Harmonic cluster of positive influences
18 day high to high cycle progression
the NEXT 13 day progression from yesterday is March 28th= 78 hours- SHOULD BE A LOW
According to one analyst the Seasonal DOW CYCLE in BUY October 16th and SELL April20
OBVIOUSLY - from year to year those dates can vary. This YR it looks like FEB 20.
The Bradley March 10th date matches my 13 day cycle high of March 9th.
March 20 is the next Bradley date, and MY projection for march 16th is close enuf.
April 20 is the Next Bradley date, and on Most charts it is shown as a high- BUT MAY NOT end up as teh high of 2007, we might have alrady seen that on Feb 20th.
Someone also pointed out FEB23rd as a ARMSTRONG 8.6yr cycle CHANGE.
Heres the JAYWIZ date progression;
March 9th high
March 16th high, maybe higher or NOT- who cares
March 28 = a LOW = 13 trade days after March 9th
April has MANY turn dates, and is NOT quite clear until we get a little closer to the month, but for all intensive purposes, these dates should work out quite well.
April 4th= A LOW = 18 trade days after March 9th.
April 11 high -
april 16th an IMPORTANT LOW also 55 calendar days after FEB20.
April 20th rebound
May 20 does look like the NEXT most important date, should be a Low.
I was doing some GANN geometric squares last year off the May10th HIGH, but gave up after a while.
best wishes,
Jay
Friday, March 09, 2007
Im OUT
just as SCRIPTED
Im NOW OUt, and will sit on the side till next Friday where at the present time, Im expecting to buy the QiD
Sure, they just might close at the earlier high, but my gut wont let me wait till 4pm.
Remember what I previously wrote
Robbin- Thanks for the reminder
GET DEFENSIVE
Sell the Rallies
Hope I can follow my own advice
YES- I sold the rallies.
They Got UP about 70 pts where the 38.2% FIBO retrace level, and IT looks like trouble from here.
Secondary rally took it Up 32pts at 10:50 where there was a positive influence.
If you want to SCALP a little on Monday's weakness, you could buy puts at today's close.
In this case, IF you did that, you would most likely want to cash out at Monday's close
The OUtlook for Monday calls for a SOBERING day. Just exactly what that means?? WE won't know until Monday, and it could effect everyone a little differently. BUT at least you can smile about your trade.
Have a great weekend
Jay
Im NOW OUt, and will sit on the side till next Friday where at the present time, Im expecting to buy the QiD
Sure, they just might close at the earlier high, but my gut wont let me wait till 4pm.
Remember what I previously wrote
Robbin- Thanks for the reminder
GET DEFENSIVE
Sell the Rallies
Hope I can follow my own advice
YES- I sold the rallies.
They Got UP about 70 pts where the 38.2% FIBO retrace level, and IT looks like trouble from here.
Secondary rally took it Up 32pts at 10:50 where there was a positive influence.
If you want to SCALP a little on Monday's weakness, you could buy puts at today's close.
In this case, IF you did that, you would most likely want to cash out at Monday's close
The OUtlook for Monday calls for a SOBERING day. Just exactly what that means?? WE won't know until Monday, and it could effect everyone a little differently. BUT at least you can smile about your trade.
Have a great weekend
Jay
Fantasy becomes REALITY
I'll bet you were all holding your breath this morning at 8:30
WHERE NOW? you ask.
Fibo levels
DOW lost 736 pts Feb 20 to mar5th.
Close yesterday was 12,261
38% retrace = 12,333
The difference =72 pts
If they get above that and HOLD , then the next level is 50% = 12,418
that would give us a rally today of 157 pts at the close.
As I mentioned b4, MY decision to CASH OUT would be dependent on the OPEN today, and IT looks like I will probably go the distance.
There is a 259 bar hit at 3pm today, and that might slow them down from about 2pm to 3pm.
But the close should be a happy one.
There is also a 204 bar hit at 11:30 which might or might NOT have much impact.
I dont know IF I have the GUTS to hold out for the close, so I will probably sell 50% of my position earlier.
Exactly when?? WHO KNOWS?? Maybe after the first 10 minutes as I previously mentioned, IF they DO get up that 100+ pts.
Best wishes
Jay
WHERE NOW? you ask.
Fibo levels
DOW lost 736 pts Feb 20 to mar5th.
Close yesterday was 12,261
38% retrace = 12,333
The difference =72 pts
If they get above that and HOLD , then the next level is 50% = 12,418
that would give us a rally today of 157 pts at the close.
As I mentioned b4, MY decision to CASH OUT would be dependent on the OPEN today, and IT looks like I will probably go the distance.
There is a 259 bar hit at 3pm today, and that might slow them down from about 2pm to 3pm.
But the close should be a happy one.
There is also a 204 bar hit at 11:30 which might or might NOT have much impact.
I dont know IF I have the GUTS to hold out for the close, so I will probably sell 50% of my position earlier.
Exactly when?? WHO KNOWS?? Maybe after the first 10 minutes as I previously mentioned, IF they DO get up that 100+ pts.
Best wishes
Jay
Thursday, March 08, 2007
Gap and Fill
Looks like the Close filled the GAP open.
Sometimes the readings get mixed- in other words, Thursday' reading becomes Friday's action and vice versa.
Tomorrow, as mentioned b4 is 13 days/ 78 hours ,and some of you know about Stan Harley cycles.
Thats from FEb 20th a HIGH to HIGH.
There are a number of other positive forces indicating tomorrow "COULD" be
the BIG UP DAY
Employ report comes out at ?? 8:30am
Could provide a trigger?
HOWEVER<>
The NEWS MEDIA groups only provide OUR HUMAN Curiosity with a REASON.
WE wll want to know WHY !! They are all to happy to oblige.
As for NEXT week, the DECK is stacked AGAINST the market, so it has to make numbers NOW.
Best wishes
Jay
PS; Keep the emails coming, I love to hear from all of you.
Maybe we can get Obama some investment help
Sometimes the readings get mixed- in other words, Thursday' reading becomes Friday's action and vice versa.
Tomorrow, as mentioned b4 is 13 days/ 78 hours ,and some of you know about Stan Harley cycles.
Thats from FEb 20th a HIGH to HIGH.
There are a number of other positive forces indicating tomorrow "COULD" be
the BIG UP DAY
Employ report comes out at ?? 8:30am
Could provide a trigger?
HOWEVER<>
The NEWS MEDIA groups only provide OUR HUMAN Curiosity with a REASON.
WE wll want to know WHY !! They are all to happy to oblige.
As for NEXT week, the DECK is stacked AGAINST the market, so it has to make numbers NOW.
Best wishes
Jay
PS; Keep the emails coming, I love to hear from all of you.
Maybe we can get Obama some investment help
Europe and Asia TELL ALL
Just as indicated earlier this week, we WILL GEt our Thursday rally.
There is a 180 bar hit at 4pm. That should only impact the closing, but I doubt it will be detrimental.
If you BOT in last Friday or Monday, your probably wondering WHEN to CASH OUT. ME TOO !
There is a STRONG POSITIVE influence at 9am Friday, which should spill over to stocks at the open and at least for the first 15 to 30 minutes.
HOWEVER, If an initial SPURT<> runs the dow up big (+100 ) in the first 5 minutes, THAT for me is my CASH OUT signal.
IF Thursday closes UP BIG and Friday opens as described, They will probably sell down mid day and might even close higher, BUT I really won't care at that point. Im NOT going to try to SQUEEZE the LAST penny out of it.
Most of next week LOOKS CRAPPY for trading, so I will be looking for a place to buy the QiD, which will most likely wait till Friday March 16th, where It's possible they will get a another surge.
best wishes
Jay
There is a 180 bar hit at 4pm. That should only impact the closing, but I doubt it will be detrimental.
If you BOT in last Friday or Monday, your probably wondering WHEN to CASH OUT. ME TOO !
There is a STRONG POSITIVE influence at 9am Friday, which should spill over to stocks at the open and at least for the first 15 to 30 minutes.
HOWEVER, If an initial SPURT<> runs the dow up big (+100 ) in the first 5 minutes, THAT for me is my CASH OUT signal.
IF Thursday closes UP BIG and Friday opens as described, They will probably sell down mid day and might even close higher, BUT I really won't care at that point. Im NOT going to try to SQUEEZE the LAST penny out of it.
Most of next week LOOKS CRAPPY for trading, so I will be looking for a place to buy the QiD, which will most likely wait till Friday March 16th, where It's possible they will get a another surge.
best wishes
Jay
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
Dozens of Emails
Thanks for ALL your EMAILS
helps me to understand who my audience is.
Almost Everyone seems to be benefitting, and that WORKS for ME too.
One of the NEXT 2 days has got a huge rally setup to go.
If not Tomrrow, then Friday for sure.
CBOE @ 1.16 + OEX @2.20 & spx 500PC @2.11 ratios still BULLISH.
Internal tech data has settled down to more normal levels, and any big rally will make the markets OVEBOT very quickly.
best wishes
Jay
helps me to understand who my audience is.
Almost Everyone seems to be benefitting, and that WORKS for ME too.
One of the NEXT 2 days has got a huge rally setup to go.
If not Tomrrow, then Friday for sure.
CBOE @ 1.16 + OEX @2.20 & spx 500PC @2.11 ratios still BULLISH.
Internal tech data has settled down to more normal levels, and any big rally will make the markets OVEBOT very quickly.
best wishes
Jay
On COURSE
I cant tell where the 259 hit yesterday, and will have to wait to see how WED develops.
It looks like it hit at 11am, but thats only 222 bars- not out of the question, but not anywhere near 2pm.
However, the market did make a steady rise after 11am.
Today, as indicated , looks like a sloppy start, but should recover and probably end flat to lower.
AS I mentioned, NOTHING SERIOUS
60 bars is supposed to hit at 12:30
90 bars at 3pm
I'll be watching for those times to be confirmed or not.
Thursday, however, promises to be a very bullish day.
Friday is 13 trade days (78 hours) from FEb 20th- high to high
Please send me an email if Ive been helpful to your trading endevours. I dont know if this blog is being viewed by traders or investors, so do let me know. THANKS,
Jay
It looks like it hit at 11am, but thats only 222 bars- not out of the question, but not anywhere near 2pm.
However, the market did make a steady rise after 11am.
Today, as indicated , looks like a sloppy start, but should recover and probably end flat to lower.
AS I mentioned, NOTHING SERIOUS
60 bars is supposed to hit at 12:30
90 bars at 3pm
I'll be watching for those times to be confirmed or not.
Thursday, however, promises to be a very bullish day.
Friday is 13 trade days (78 hours) from FEb 20th- high to high
Please send me an email if Ive been helpful to your trading endevours. I dont know if this blog is being viewed by traders or investors, so do let me know. THANKS,
Jay
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Blue Monday & Tuesday Turnaround
As anticipated, we aer getting a rebound today
My lower start was ignored and the dow blasted off to +100 in the first few minutes.
Now we are getting the softness OF the 259 bar cycle hitting at 2pm.
Should close strong today.-
There might be some selling pressure tomorrow, but nothing such as last week.
Mercury does start to move Direct late on the 7th, and that might coincide with a bigger rally on Thursday.
If we do get the HUGE rally on Thursday as expected, then Friday AM should top it off.
best wishes
Jay
My lower start was ignored and the dow blasted off to +100 in the first few minutes.
Now we are getting the softness OF the 259 bar cycle hitting at 2pm.
Should close strong today.-
There might be some selling pressure tomorrow, but nothing such as last week.
Mercury does start to move Direct late on the 7th, and that might coincide with a bigger rally on Thursday.
If we do get the HUGE rally on Thursday as expected, then Friday AM should top it off.
best wishes
Jay
Monday, March 05, 2007
Technical Rally coming
And its GOING to be a one day WHOPPER,and it could even set a new record.
Once that occurs, It offsets the 1450 on the daily day arms index, and brings the Average into more normal levels.
Tomrrow should open a little lower and keep the pressure on till after 2pm, then we should get a nice close.
I dont agree with Charts Edge for WEd, but it still doesnt look like a positive day, so it could be as bad as they show it.
Thursday and Friday promise to bring smiles back to the bull camp, but its NOT long lasting.
GET DEFENSIVE
Sell the rallies
Hope, I can remember my own advice.
Best wishes
Jay
Once that occurs, It offsets the 1450 on the daily day arms index, and brings the Average into more normal levels.
Tomrrow should open a little lower and keep the pressure on till after 2pm, then we should get a nice close.
I dont agree with Charts Edge for WEd, but it still doesnt look like a positive day, so it could be as bad as they show it.
Thursday and Friday promise to bring smiles back to the bull camp, but its NOT long lasting.
GET DEFENSIVE
Sell the rallies
Hope, I can remember my own advice.
Best wishes
Jay
PROOF READ
Sorry about that 1am- I really do have to spend more time proof reading. I was rushed this AM.
After another SHARP down open, we are getting some volitile action intraday.
Take a look at www.chartsedge.com
I agree with that scenario for this week.
Today should close flat to a little lower as 204 bars hits at 3pm.
Tomorrow's intrday low or trigger to go higher should occur at about NOON where 259 bar cycle hits.
I did most of my buying last week, so Im sitting on the bench and watching the action.
To get the MOST of this weeks trades, Im thinking about trading OUT late Thursday or late Friday.
Planning of buy back in on the 13th, and MUST be SOLD out ont he 16th, getting ready to get SHORT from there till April4th.
Almost forgot: Gold/XAU ratio hit 4.92- also CNBC talking about HOW bad gold has gotten as an investment, but the guest speaker says there is a build up of short sales. Looks to me like gold mining shares could particiapte in the rally next 10 days.
Best wishes
Jay
After another SHARP down open, we are getting some volitile action intraday.
Take a look at www.chartsedge.com
I agree with that scenario for this week.
Today should close flat to a little lower as 204 bars hits at 3pm.
Tomorrow's intrday low or trigger to go higher should occur at about NOON where 259 bar cycle hits.
I did most of my buying last week, so Im sitting on the bench and watching the action.
To get the MOST of this weeks trades, Im thinking about trading OUT late Thursday or late Friday.
Planning of buy back in on the 13th, and MUST be SOLD out ont he 16th, getting ready to get SHORT from there till April4th.
Almost forgot: Gold/XAU ratio hit 4.92- also CNBC talking about HOW bad gold has gotten as an investment, but the guest speaker says there is a build up of short sales. Looks to me like gold mining shares could particiapte in the rally next 10 days.
Best wishes
Jay
FIRST SHOT Across the BOW
8:30 AM Monday March 5th
Todays Geomagnetic energy is an 8 coinciding with what looks like a down day.
Consider the last 10 days to be the first shot across the bow.
what's that mean?
Get DEFENSIVE this year, and dont expect the market to fly into the stratosphere.
We are 5 years from the 0ctober 2002 low and the 4year cycle seems to topped on Feb 20th.
And we can forget about global warming for a while. Earths NATURAL temp cycle seems to be coinciding with market cycles.
What about TODAY?
good question
Looks like we should expect today to start off DOWN- thats obvious given the SPOOS futures. Laso looks like a down Monday till at least 1am, they should start to make a recovery, and it also loooks like it could be a typical Tuesday turn around.
Still looking for a short term rebound to carry through the 16th.
Jay
Todays Geomagnetic energy is an 8 coinciding with what looks like a down day.
Consider the last 10 days to be the first shot across the bow.
what's that mean?
Get DEFENSIVE this year, and dont expect the market to fly into the stratosphere.
We are 5 years from the 0ctober 2002 low and the 4year cycle seems to topped on Feb 20th.
And we can forget about global warming for a while. Earths NATURAL temp cycle seems to be coinciding with market cycles.
What about TODAY?
good question
Looks like we should expect today to start off DOWN- thats obvious given the SPOOS futures. Laso looks like a down Monday till at least 1am, they should start to make a recovery, and it also loooks like it could be a typical Tuesday turn around.
Still looking for a short term rebound to carry through the 16th.
Jay
Saturday, March 03, 2007
WAS Friday a BUY?
If youve been reading me all week, you would have gotten the picture that I bot LONG into Friday's close.
Actually I was SCALE trading all day long as there was NO way I would have forseen the ACTUAL closing LOW at 4pm. I do NOT own a crystal ball, although it may seem that way to some of you at times, and other times it does get somewhat confusing.
Funny, The times that most people get confused, it seems that I am most clear, and vise-versa.HMM.
However, It became OBVIOUS to me onWednesday that the LOW of Tuesday would be matched if not beaten.
Whats NEXT ? you ask. great question, thanks for asking
Since Ive told you that I bot LONG, I guess I am expecting the market to rally.
Internal Technicals are SCREAMING BUY
Arms index 5 day ave is now at 406.2 - WOW unreal oversold
Arms index 5 day trin = 203.1 - WOW unreal oversold
Arms inex 10 day trin = 2552 Ditto
CBOE PC ratio = 1.30 today and was 1.42 on Thurs + 1.70 on Tues= THIS ADDS up to MAJOR OVERSOLD
OEX PC ratio today was 1.22
SPX 500 pc ratio = 2.55
THESE RATIOS CANNOT BE IGNORED.
They are outright BULLISH
The ECLIPSE and LOW tide effects are OVER.
Im expecting the market to rally into Mar9th.
Off some on March 12/13
Continue rebound into 16th
Ive posted future dates b4.
Best wishes
Jay
Actually I was SCALE trading all day long as there was NO way I would have forseen the ACTUAL closing LOW at 4pm. I do NOT own a crystal ball, although it may seem that way to some of you at times, and other times it does get somewhat confusing.
Funny, The times that most people get confused, it seems that I am most clear, and vise-versa.HMM.
However, It became OBVIOUS to me onWednesday that the LOW of Tuesday would be matched if not beaten.
Whats NEXT ? you ask. great question, thanks for asking
Since Ive told you that I bot LONG, I guess I am expecting the market to rally.
Internal Technicals are SCREAMING BUY
Arms index 5 day ave is now at 406.2 - WOW unreal oversold
Arms index 5 day trin = 203.1 - WOW unreal oversold
Arms inex 10 day trin = 2552 Ditto
CBOE PC ratio = 1.30 today and was 1.42 on Thurs + 1.70 on Tues= THIS ADDS up to MAJOR OVERSOLD
OEX PC ratio today was 1.22
SPX 500 pc ratio = 2.55
THESE RATIOS CANNOT BE IGNORED.
They are outright BULLISH
The ECLIPSE and LOW tide effects are OVER.
Im expecting the market to rally into Mar9th.
Off some on March 12/13
Continue rebound into 16th
Ive posted future dates b4.
Best wishes
Jay
Friday, March 02, 2007
YOU Cant Deny what you CANT SEE
You Can't see AIR, but you breathe it
Electricity, same deal,
Cell phone, radio, electron, waves- same deal
Today so far the ARCANE is WINNING
Heres what I mean.
Magnetronetic level = 5 = mild
Tuesday was a 15, and we all know what happened.
TODAY so far its 11am,,
Open was - 50pts with a Lunar aspect w Mercury
60 bars hit at 10:30 dow dipped again to -32
10:54 market rose on another Mercury/ Lunar aspect
Whats NEXT ?
90 bars -NEXT LOW point SHOULD be at 1pm
2pm should be a high
126 bars hits at the close- COULD be the LOW of the day<>
Jay
Electricity, same deal,
Cell phone, radio, electron, waves- same deal
Today so far the ARCANE is WINNING
Heres what I mean.
Magnetronetic level = 5 = mild
Tuesday was a 15, and we all know what happened.
TODAY so far its 11am,,
Open was - 50pts with a Lunar aspect w Mercury
60 bars hit at 10:30 dow dipped again to -32
10:54 market rose on another Mercury/ Lunar aspect
Whats NEXT ?
90 bars -NEXT LOW point SHOULD be at 1pm
2pm should be a high
126 bars hits at the close- COULD be the LOW of the day<>
Jay
Thursday, March 01, 2007
Trigger points
Sometimes that 259 bar cycle hit shows up as a market ACCELERATION
And that can occur in either direction
I have mentioned this b4
TODAY's NOON hour and 259 bar cycle seems to have been a trigger point to go lower.
Helps to pinpoint Tomrrows low, maybe
Im suggesting the INTRADAY low should occur TOMRROW at 60 bars between 10:30 to 11am.
The day does end on 126 bars and could possibly close lower.
Im SCALE trading since I cant be sure of catching the absolute LOW.
SCALE trading, in case you've never heard of it means buying as the market drops lower.
Jay
And that can occur in either direction
I have mentioned this b4
TODAY's NOON hour and 259 bar cycle seems to have been a trigger point to go lower.
Helps to pinpoint Tomrrows low, maybe
Im suggesting the INTRADAY low should occur TOMRROW at 60 bars between 10:30 to 11am.
The day does end on 126 bars and could possibly close lower.
Im SCALE trading since I cant be sure of catching the absolute LOW.
SCALE trading, in case you've never heard of it means buying as the market drops lower.
Jay
Capitulation or NOT
Early plunge did seem to TEST the previous low
11am
Will NOON bring in a retest low failure??
In other words, WILL it be SAFE To BUY??
Answer is really YOUR own analysis.
My guess is "OK to NIBBLE"
Will tomorrow sell off again??
Answer :Possibly
As YOu can seee I have NO crystal ball, but I did disclose the psychology of the day.
Jay
11am
Will NOON bring in a retest low failure??
In other words, WILL it be SAFE To BUY??
Answer is really YOUR own analysis.
My guess is "OK to NIBBLE"
Will tomorrow sell off again??
Answer :Possibly
As YOu can seee I have NO crystal ball, but I did disclose the psychology of the day.
Jay
NOT so fast
Its 8am March 1st- Im posting this early to catch the early bird.
Dont be in a rush to BUY today
Im going to bypass that NOON hour buy and hold off till Friday's CLOSE
THis Full MOON Eclipse seems to have more to do with Tuesday's decline than I previously thought.
I hope Im not offending anyone by talking about full moons, but we ALL know there is a correlation to human behavior during such events; Princess Diana died the day on such an event.
I find it Fascinating the CNBC is starting their Million dollar contest on March 5th. Just coincidence of course.
Still thinking about GOLD mining shares- most rebounded quite well yesterday, but we'll see what they do ALSO by Friday's close.
Remember last year , both Equities and GOLD reached their peaks simultaneously on May 10th.
This year it could be March 16th-- OH those IDES of MARCh keep haunting us 2000 years later.
Best wishes
Jay
Dont be in a rush to BUY today
Im going to bypass that NOON hour buy and hold off till Friday's CLOSE
THis Full MOON Eclipse seems to have more to do with Tuesday's decline than I previously thought.
I hope Im not offending anyone by talking about full moons, but we ALL know there is a correlation to human behavior during such events; Princess Diana died the day on such an event.
I find it Fascinating the CNBC is starting their Million dollar contest on March 5th. Just coincidence of course.
Still thinking about GOLD mining shares- most rebounded quite well yesterday, but we'll see what they do ALSO by Friday's close.
Remember last year , both Equities and GOLD reached their peaks simultaneously on May 10th.
This year it could be March 16th-- OH those IDES of MARCh keep haunting us 2000 years later.
Best wishes
Jay
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