Monday, Monday, cant trust that day

Monday's in literature and real life have been know for catastrophe's

Will this Monday be such a day ???

It seems Friday's last hour may have setup a wave 1 down @ 3pm and wave 2 @4pm

Ive counted out 2 bar cycles converging at 4pm
1. hits with 180 bars
2, hits with 329 bars
Both are consistently apparent at LOW POINTS

Monday's reading calls for a financial problem, and morning difficulties.

It is the 138 anniv of the 1869 panic- ?? if that means anything ???

October , according to some techncial analysts is begging to take out the August lows.

I still have the same dates as previously posted.
Oct 1 - LOW

Oct 5 a high, possibly the 8th, but more likely the 5th
Oct 10 now looks like the most likely day for a serious low that week, as the new moon is at midnite , which opens the 11th for what I would call a pivotal day.
Oct 12th reading calls for an UPBEAT and DYNAMIC day.

The next time period for serious consideration is the week of the 22nd to 25th.

Best Wishes
Jay

Potential short today

Today's full moon AfTER EFFECT should represent a turn lower and provide a profitable short opp.

positive influence at 1:30 today might be good time to take a position ??

other wise, the close today or open tomorrow accompanies a 126 bar hit and should coincide with a drop in the market. Most likely the open as a 56 hour cycle high hits late today.

There is a strange GAP in the solar energy chart tomorrow, and low energy levels shown for
the 28th. BUT there is positive energy later in the day which could stabalize the market

Monday is expected to continue the decline most of the day.

From there, the market should rebound into the 8th.

Jay

Can the bears recover?

Not according to CNBC-- bears are dead in the water.
If only the signals were that clear at the bottom.

It takes at least 5 days for a market to top out, which may or may not have already happened.

At the LOWS such as Aug 15,16, it only takes a few hours to bottom out, especially in a strong bull market.

In 1982, it took many years thru all of the 70's to reach a bottom. but were in a totally different kind of environment.

Many of the participants on other web sites seem to be comisserting theri losse also.

Unwarranted rate cuts to bail out the foolish- hey, then why not give us back our foolish losses??

October has the possibility of making a 5 wave decline, but will it be HUGE or meager??

Huge would be to the liking for some people I converse with, but it doesnt lookthat way.
Unless there is a coup in IRan while @#$&*^% is here, or something else occurs, then I cant see anything but a possible easy 5 wave correction to the 25th.

Heres the break down
October 1st, a low
Oct 8th, a high
Oct12, a low
Oct 19th, a high
Oct 25th a low
FROM There, its buy buy buy all the way to late November, and maybe further.

Remember, I did state my expectations for Dow 18,000 by 2010.
Dow 18k would put gold at or near $1000

Can October be severe? Sure
Some Elliott wave people are viewing the Aug 16 to Spt 21 run as a "B" wave, thus openning the door to a "C" wave. If its a running correction in a strong bull market, then the ending will not be any lower than 12,800.

If a normal Nasty "C" wave, it should coincide with some dramatic event, and since Money problems seem to be under control, HMMM, then it would come from some world event. Whats that you ask? The DOLLAH is getting murdered!! NO one seems to care ---- just YET> ???
How low can the dollar go until it effects stock pricies?? Damned if I know

More later
Jay

Pay the PIPER

I dont know where that expression came from, but its beginning to look like this week will match that saying.

Most important appears to be Wed at NOOn where numerous influences meet
Reading for the day calls for upsets, pay the piper, and money problems.

It wont end there, but Wed afternoon could offer a reprieve.

Continued pressure is indicated for Thursday as well

And it doesnt end there, as the markets should continue to decline thru october 1st.

Best Wishes
Jay

Market holding

Cant seem to get capitulation

Is it still coming? yes, but when?

Dow got to 13,425, and spx to 1483 , a FLAT on the rebound if thats the end of the rebound wave
matching the highs on spt 4th, SO FAR - - -

Buying on this rebound has been on lighter volume , reflecting only a rebound.
Selling has been limited, but buying has been muted

Take a look, if you have it at the Charts Edge graph of Spt 1 to oct 19th.
It did show a high on spt 4th, and a low on the 7th to 10th.
then a rebound to now the 13/14th.
More important, it reflects a potential top on FED day- Spt18th, then a 2 day thud on 19th & 20th.

There is a huge open gap on the solar chart showing a possible selling spree on the 19th, and the 20th. HOw low is LOW?? Could be that we will see 100 spx points in 2 days, but that only speculation on my part.

Best Wishes
Jay

READY or NOT

The best chance for the market decline to continue occurs tomorrow and Friday into Monday

PC ratios are bearish

Look at a Chart of the dow on big charts and use the data for:
Ultimate oscilator -- dropping at close
OBV - dropping from mid day
MACD - blue line crossed over red, and the gap is getting larger.

Solar effects seem to be showing declines the next 2 days, and probably monday, but thats not clear yet.

How long are they going to ignore the dollar under 80

Yes, the FED will most likely lower the fed funds rate by .25, and the 18th with or without them calls for a winning day, and that means UP

BUT the rest of next week is hampered with some heavy duty negative influences, and could drag the dow down thru the 20, and or 21st, the 6 yr anniversary of the 9-11-2001 lows.

21st has some other short term cycles converging on that date also.

Some other very good technical analysts have suggested spx lows at 1330., while others are indicating 1220, and 1170. Take it for what it is, and dont bet on any of them.

whatever happens between now and october 9th will take the spx and dow to whatever level is major support BUT realize that most negative influences will be gone after Oct9th, and the market should start another strong moveup.

Best Wshes
Jay

9-11-2007

It still looks like 9-11-2007 will be a hard day on Wall st.

And it should continue to the 17th.

Even a rate cut by the Fed wont stop the cycle in play which probably wont stop until Spt 20th

Of course there will be some WILD swings, and that kind of volitility can be vary scary.

Im still planning to add short positions on Monday, and the open should run up at least 100 points in the first 15 minutes.

Best Wishes
Jay

I dont like using IF, but

If Friday provides a low, or I should say closes at a low,

then Monday should provide a moderate bounce

BUT Im still waiting for the 11th and 12th to offer some type of panic selling

Just how much and how bad?? Dont have any way to offer that info

Some people have posted some heavy duty numbers, but I cant be one of them.

So far, Its still sell the rumor, buy the news
it seemed they were buying the rumor until today??

RATE CUT?? a rumor, come Spt 18th it could be news, BUY IT, I will .
Best wishes
Jay

Spt 2007

Sptmber promises to be an eye openner.

The market over the past 5 years has spawned a larger number of new players who ahve not even see as much as a 3 % correction

SO why should this month be any different? I really cant answer that until it is over, but I can tell you that I personally am planning to be a short as possible on Spt 7th, and expect to close those positions on Spt 17th.

Best Wishes
Jay