Where are we

Monday the 29th is also a historic day, and it might have just hit a short term high.
62% rebound on the SPX
54% rebound on the Dow

Tuesday should start DOWN
Wed has an 8 trade day cycle high at the open, and the Fed rate cut at 2:15 on WEDNESDAy might offer a minor spurt.

BUT, I am looking at the trend from here to NOV6th as biased DOWN

FROM NOv 6th, the rally should take the dow to possible new highs by NOV 16th, which of course is option Expiration day

Todays bar hits were due at 10:30, and 1pm &3pm

They did HIT in the middle of each target;
A low was scored at 11am, and again at 3pm

Tomorrow - Tuesday should have bar hits at 11am again, and this one should be more meaningful than Monday's

The second one should hit at 1:30
4pm should also be signifigant.

Jay

Next Week Fed rate cut

Yes, the FOMC is Tuesday and at 2:15pm, they will most likely cut the rates by another .25pt
It is already factored in by 100%, so NO surprise is expected this time.

Energy patterns next week are in low gear on Monday and tuesday ,thus a rate cut might not inspire a rally.

Thursday had a 30 bar hit at 2pm exact- 120
friday hit 90 bars at noon exact
Monday has a 150 @ 10:30, --And 180 bar hit @ 1pm -- & 204 at 3pm
leaving Tuesday with 259 @ 1pm , whihc might be short term low just prior to the reat cut announce at 2:15pm
Best Wishes
Jay

trading

As any trader should do, puts that were bot on friday were sold on Friday's close

The market did NOT repsond to an oversold condition in the AM on monday and openned down 100 pts, and by 10 am is now only off 26 pts.

Catching the open low for closing out an option would have been some what frustrating unless you had it in for a price which even then may not have gotten struck.

Now we have to take an overall view this week.
Expecting a more serious low on WED and possibly even Thursday, I do intend to buy back puts today.
First time zone would be at 10:20am, but the unltimate time might also be later in the day.
Sure we try to get he extremes, but thats not an easy task, and only happens on occasion.

If the ultimate target for this week is under 13K, then it matters not to catch the ultimate price, but it matters more to be in. Of course that all depends on your view of the direction this week.

Jay

anniversaries

Oct11 was also the 17 yr anniv of hte 1990 low

Oct 19 is the 20 yr anniv of the 1987 crash.

Most index options expired on the 18th, and thus there was no techncical reason to support them.

I had been warning about a large hit for weeks now. and Thursday, my tendonitis kicked up.

So much for that, now whats next.

heres some stats from Friday
The close was right on a 159bar hit
one day ARMS index was 3.39
MY OWN INDEX of 5day ADV DCL & UP/Dn Vol both dropped under 300- anytime that has occured, we get a bounce. Ive been keeping that index for many years now.

5day arms = 805, a fairly strong buy
10 day arms = 130.1= also a strong buy

Monday should explode out of the chute, and continue UP all day.

Tuesday calls for a CHANGE and should decline into the 25th.

Best Wishes
Jay

oct 11 = exhaustion wave top

elliott wave shows oct 11th peaked in a 5 wave diagnonal ending triangle where wave 4 overlaps wave 1.

Thus we should see a retreat of good size proportions.

I know, its like crying wolf and he never shows up. Well this time he is coming to a neighborhodd near you, and me.


The best bet for a major retreat is Oct 22 to 25th, and ive mentioned that several times.

Monday performed as expected, and Tuesday settled down to MAJOR support at spx 1538, as discussed on many other site that I review.

Today is Wed, and I am anticiapting a gravitational rebound thru Thursday.

According to Another sources, Thursday's close or friday's open is the next turning oint, and it should be DOWN.

After a brief and strong rebound open on monday, the dow should fall precipitously thru the 25 and the full moon. Oct 11th was a new moon.

Best Wishes
Jay.

Bradley dates

Bradley dates are October 13 and 17th as mentioned b4

Oct 11th and the new moon have shown their importance.
Oct11 is the 5 yr anniv of the 2002 low
And the new moon indicated a NEW START, and a PIVOTAL DAY, and new direction
I had read it upside down. The knife has just begun to fall.

The bradley chart showed Oct13th as a HIGH, and thus I was reading oct11as a LOW leading to a runup to another new high. THAT WAS WRONG - it has been the reverse.

The PIVOT referred to the FAILED new high on the SPX , and the END of the RUN from August 16th.

Bar hits on the 11 th were at 11am, a minor dip, and MUCH more important the 3pm low at 259 bars.

Today, Oct12th has 30 bars @ 11:30,--- & 60 bars @ 2pm, BUT most important 3pm
3pm has 2 hits
3pm = 126 off the 11am low of yesterday
3pm = 329 off the 259 low of yesterday

Also there is a 90 bar hit at 10 am on Monday which should open the market with a small thud.
That would be a good OPP to buy calls. Expect another failed run to attempt new highs on the 17th, which is the other bradley date on Oct17th which SHOULD provide a rebound high and secondary failure, thus leading to further selling from the 18th thru the 25th.

I have mentioned the 22nd to 25th a few times.

Dec 22nd is the next most important bradley date after Oct17th, and it is predicted as a low, and I have no reason to suspect otherwise at this point. but more on that as we get closer to those dates

November also shows promise of some high volitility

Best Wishes
Jay

Technical evidence points to pull back NOW

October, well know for market declines, seems ready to provide yet such another market event.

Decision Point has very good charts and graphs showing the TECHNICAL data related to a pull back. And he makes a very good argument for such right now.

The Bradley turn dates coming up are
Oct13,
Oct 17

Elliott wave shows the most recent high to be what is called an IRREGULAR top which occurs as a "B" wave. Whats that mean for those of you who dont know. "C" waves follow and they are usually very disastrous, especially the way this one provided a new high. It measn the next low soule be at or lower than the "A" wave which ocurred on Aug16th at dow 12,500

The timing seems to be from NOW till October 25th. NOW thats really quick in terms of market timing. So, it would mean a low of at least 12,500 by oct25th. since it cant all happen in one week, as it takes 3 waves to complete, then this week would have to be part of that decline, and it probably started Friday at 3pm.

SO, if 12,500 gets hit this week, then we could expect 11,700 to be the lower target on the 25th, but all that remains to be seen.

Im still looking for a sharp decline this week ending on Thursday around 11am where there is a 204 bar hit. From there, they should rebound to the 19th and OPTION EXPIRATION- thats a concept I still have to get my head wrapped around.

BTW, Our SUN and solar system is on track to be on the SAME PLANE as the Galactic CENTER of the MILKY way galaxy on DEc 11th, 2012- exactly where the Mayan calendar ENDS. Whats that mean you ask? NO one can really answer that Quesion, but maybe it will be the end of our warming trend???? for one thing. According to Nostrdamus, I think its the end of the world, but thats not supposed to be a problem till 2029 when that Asteroid is due to fly by, and then return to actually hit us in 2036, i think.

Fortunately, we are advanced enuf to possibly remove that threat. AND some people still complain about the reason we are exploring space. We didnt get this far just to get obliterated by a space rock.

So catch that falling knife on the rebound Thursday as it bounces off support, wherever that may be.
Best wishes
Jay