When to buy puts

As of this writing, its noon on March 31st and the spx is at 1324, and should close at or near 1330

If that does go according to plan, then Im a buyer of puts on the openning rally on April 1st
happy Fools day
Amazing, How appropriate can you get.

Best for now
Jay

Time & dates

watch this

Oct10 + 72 tr days = Jan 23 = a low

Oct10 + 18 cycles of 8 = 144 tr days = May6th which should be a low equal in importance to Jan 23rd.

Dec 6th, 2007 was 5 cycles of 8 = 40 tr days & the market began to deteriorate to the Jan 23rd LOW

April 2nd = 15 cycles of 8 = 120 days leading to a marked deterioration of prices ending on the May6th date

Jay

No Hurry to go anywhere

I could be wrong, but it looks like as long as the spx holds above 1321, the next rebound on March 31st, and April1st will once again attempt to break out above 1355.
WILL IT DO IT??
My work indicates a NO GO;

In fact, Arpil should be the month to break SUPPORT at 1270, not resistence @ 1355.

A few dates have become important
Arpil 2nd = the 8 day TURN, and since Apr 1st is a high, then its a DOWNTURN to the new moon on Saturday.
8th-9th next high
Huge drop on 10&11
Option week should rebound vogorously starting on the 14th.

heres some interesting Fibo dates
Oct 10 + 55 trade days = 12/27, a secondary high
Oct10 + 89 tr days = Feb 14th, a bradley high
Oct 10 + 144 tr days = May 6th still to come, but looks like it should be a low
Oct10 + 288 tr days = Nov 10, which has been my suspected low all along,& thats NOTHING to do with elections.

Its possible to get a short break today or tomrrow at the open to 1321, and that would setup a very short term buy opp, but once gain 1355 would be froming a possible tripple top at that level.

Best for now
Jay

March 27th

Jaywiz index = .16 AND the OEX pc ratio = .78
Just those 2 ratios alone would send out the red flag for tomorrrow

Spx held 1335, but that wont work for tomorrow, so look for the next level @ 1321

Best
Jay

What next ?

Sometimes its neccessary to stop and take a break in order to gather data and put thoughts in place.

Few things come to light

OBV on a 3& 6 month chart for the dow& spx is WAY off - thus indicating internal weakness.
Bradley TURN date of March26th seems right on target.
8day cycle hits again on April1st and 2nd

On April 2nd Pluto goes retro and squares Mercury- according to those who know- this is a bad combo and should show its effects on traders with selling pressure on stock prices.

The next bradley date is Arpil8th and is shown as a low, but My guess is it will be a high

IF April 2nd makes a lower low than spx 1262, it sets the stage for a complete break down on April9th & 10th, leading to a low on the next bradley date of April 27th, a Sunday.
BUT since the 8day cycles on the 24&25th, I would venture to guess the 24th might be an important date.

Getting back to present
spx 1341-1344 has been shown by some as indicating support, and right now @ 10am, its at 1342
It did open at 1341, and is not bouncing UP, thus we could think possibly lower numbers today.

March 28th looks like a high energy day, and its hard to imagine anything other than a strong upday, but thre is some scientific evidence otherwise.
Either way, next week reveals the true direction of the trend.

Best Wishes
Jay

high Turned today

Market might have topped at mid day today
Today was 34 trade days from Feb1st, and 55 from Jan 2nd- both were at near highs or turned down the next 4 days after.

jaywiz Index = .78, thats quite bullish - not sure how that will fit in, unless they get an open rally back to today highs and then turns down from there.

Bradley date = 26th

some others indicate selling thru the close of the 27th- charts edge- WCA- X tide

Hard to ignore those graphs

My own work indicates selling thru the 27th as thats a high tide date & 4th day in 8day cycle.

I dont think they will break 1260, but that might come the week of April 8 to 11.

Real exhuberance today and short covering

Best Wishes
Jaywiz

Full moon Effect

thanks Peter & Trinity

Trinity, since I dont really track gold, please let me know when cycles are near to completion.
I can then look at what I do track & we can confirm those dates together>

Today was heavily influenced by the FULL moon & the Equinox changing natural negative energy to positive stock prices.

Might have another day to go on Monday
Jaywiz index = .66 very bullish
CBOE pc ratio = 1.10 mildly bullish
OEX pc ratio = 1.79 very bullish
Vix yesterday = 29.84

Spx got to 1329.51, just shy of the 1330.74 on the BRADLEY date.
Next bradley date is March 26th, and its looking like a low for a number of reasons.

So; we now have a nice long weekend to wonder why they didnt sell off, and will they do it on Monday? 1350 spx is a good goal, but its way above the bradley high, so its possible they will tease the bulls on Monday and go nowhere, thus prompting them to get more bullish and way overBOT.

As I see it, next week starts out positive, but drops into WEd, then rebounds one more time into friday. April2nd is the NEXT 8day TURN date with April1st as the next closing HIGH

Best For now
Jay

Gold & oil

I posted several warnings about GOLD & Oil
Most recent was on Amrch 10th.
Today it hit with a FURY

Anyone else you know did that in March?

Jaywiz index =.26 = more selling
March 20= 8 day low

Selling starting earlier than I thought, but Fed rate cut was LAST HURRAH

Again there was a low at 2:44pm, but this time it was only temporary.

Jay

WOW

When the Fed speaks, people listen

how long can the glow last?

At least thru next week as far as I can tell for now

The Bradley date of March 18th had been shown on most charts as a low obviously was a high;
What does that tell us about march 26th- will it be a low as shown? I tend to doubt it, as there are forces at work next week to keep this alive till the 28th.

I can see spx testing 1320-1315 on Thursday' close- that would be about 200 dow points- not very unreasonable to expect some profit taking b4 the long weekend.

Jaywiz index jumped to .49= almost a buy, but not quite, but we didnt need that index to tell us that, and its a day late. Arms indexes out of kilter also.

Bar cycle 126 hit on Monday @ 2:30 but was a minor hit
More important was the 204/329 bar cycle hit on Tuesday @ 2:44 pm when the dow was only up 200, then exploded to the end of day highs.

Advance declines ratio was 8.42/1
But volume was only 3.35/1 - Not anywhere near the 98% up vol on the 11th.

Todays higher open ocurred @ 9:40 am, and the mag reading turned down at 9:45, thus the dow is now down 22 @ 10;20am & 30 bars cycle @ 10;30
60 bars = 1pm
90b = 3:30
Tomrrow
126 B@ noon
160@ 3pm
Might be the low of the day?

Jay

Tech buy signal

other than the jaywiz index, most other tech data is signalling a short term buy

A 1.00% rate cut would signal, IMO, a TOP in gold and oil, as there is no more room at the top.

Other than fiscal or other mortgage foreclosure assistence, monetary action is just about as far as it can go.

Fed rally today is already built into futures
Jay

Throw in the towel ??

Will the market cause teh Fed to throw in the towel next month?

Tomorrow looks like 1.00% to 2.50% tomorrow
that leaves only .50 to get to 2.00% on April29

Jaywiz index still only .22, indicates more selling or at least a weak open tomorrow.
Or they could sell off after a knee jerk UP reaction to the fed cut.

CBOE pc ratio = 1.48 and is a strong buy indicator
MCOS @ -250 should allow for a bounce for a day or 2 even without the fed cut

Oil & gold in topping phase this week as mentioned b4.

Best for now
Jay

BUY??

summary
Jaywiz index = .21 = more selling and futures are obvious today
vix 31.16 7 CBOE @ 1.40 indicating a possible buy

A low today is due at 11am and again at 2pm
Readings for today call for anxiety & tensions- no doubts there

Fed will probably cut rates tomorrow by .75 and has a good chance for 1.00%
Last time that happened was in 1983, I think , and the dow jumped over 600 pts in a few days.
of course this time may be different, but a short term boost to stocks will only be short term

Any more bad news after this week will NOT be able to hold the markets from major selling sessions.

Jay

UPdate March 17- 2008

Jaywiz Index still quite low @ .21 indicates more selling most likely on Monday.

However, there is conflict with that data as the CBOE pc ratio = 1.40
why is that important? you ask - Mondays ratio was 1.48 which led to the 417 pt rally on the 11th.

Vix is 31.16 which is another conflict and is considered by most technicians to be an oversold signal. Also noticed the option volumes are quite a bit higher than usual- not sure how to categorize that info

And of course we have the fed meeting on the 17th where a .75bp rate cut is priced into the markets. getting that cut should help the dow get back to 12,300. and spx to 1333/1344

Gravitational effect for the 18th is negative for stocks, and could hold down the rally till the 19th, but either day could provide a roller coaster ride

Best Wishes
Jay

AS expected

Friday did well as expected;
Didn't get 288 points but damn close

I dont have all my data yet, so will make some comments and more tomorrow

The Market hit a LOW yesterday afternoon at 2.42pm- sound Familiar? I'll answer that for you Yes -
Friday , Mar 7th @ 2.44 did the same thing. At that juncture it was 168 bars
This Friday was @ 102 bars, BOTH out of sync with what I would normally expect, until I looked a little deeper.
March 7th @ 168 bars was followed by 90 b@ on Mon@ 3:55 pm, the low @ 259 bars = BINGO.
This time we have a completed cycle @ 259 bars @ 10:15 am on the 14th leading to a low @ 2;42 @ 55 bars, again seemingly out of sync. One added feature this week was a high tide @ 2:51 pm

What remains to be seen is monday's open; according to the bar counts, it should start the day lower
till 11am @ 90 bars

Whats even more amazing is the coming 204bars at 2pm on Fed day, a low just b4 the announcment.

So what did actually happen. WE got the "B" wave I mentioned and the SPX did NOT break 1272.
Next time, however, the bulls will not be in happy land.

April 2008 follows the Armstrong date of March 22nd where the BUSINESS cycle is expected to shift.

FOR Now
Jay

Instant gratification

Thats the way i like to make $$$

bot the qqqpr at 1.88 and in less than 10 minutes its up 10%

Later

Jay

Futures flip

CPI accompanied a flip to up on the futures.

Today should be the exact reverse of yesterday

I dont know how long the uptrend will lasst, but I think we can look for spx 1330, and dow near 12,300.

I know I will be buying puts at those levels or sooner.
bar cycles today
259bars @ 11am, usually considered a low, but on occasion it provides a turn, and if making a high at 10:30, then i would suspect its possible the turn would then occur at 11am.

60 bars cycle @ 4pm, and that could spill over to Monday's open

Monday should repeat the 10th.

Jay
Hi Trinity, thanks for your support, and I love your name, assuming your a female, if not then forget I mentioned it.

It does appear I am making a lot less mistakes than in 2006, and hopefully I can get even better.
Pass the word - more people should benefit

Nicely done

Waves 1,2,3,4, and 5 today completes wave "A" of an abc retracement to spx 1355 next week

however, IN between the bears will take control tomorrow and Monday
We got to 1333 from 1272 = 60 pts
60 X 38.2 % = 24 spx points down = 200 dow points and we got that intraday today.
OR 50% = 30 pts = 240 dow
**********Or 62% = 36pts = dow 288, more probable *******
.That would complete the "B" wave, then the bigger runup induced by the Fed on Tuesday and Wed
Now I dont mean to give the FEd that much credit- They just happen to be doing things at a time when it is cohesive to the markets. Or when the wave count matches their efforts.

Jaywiz Index today = .28, i would consider this a minor sell
CBOE pc ratio = 1.22, a bit over sold , but not the 1.48 of monday
OEX pc ratio surprisingly high at 1.39

My propietary ratios are not indicating anything important.

Jay

Spx 1333

SPX1333 @11am -First target hit and backed off
Coy, Midnite tide day is really the only one that counts and that hits tonight- Not sure yet if it will record today's spx 1333 as the high of the week or if it will occur at the open as some of my other data suggests.- I'll know a little more in the AM

Larry Tomlinson has done some research on tides, and has shown that the important days such as Jan 22nd had the lowest lowtide of the month. He also shows march 9th had the lowest low for March, and of course we know that didnt work, expect for the day after.
OK, so its NOT an exact science(G), but we already knew that, right?

The rally up from march 10th so far has the look of 1-2-3-4, now waiting for 5 as the first wave up off the lows. as other evidence of wave 4, the 156 bar cycle was @ 4pm, & that was close enuf for govt work.

NOw, that means 180B hits at 11:30 am so IF there is going to be a spurt up, it should occur b4 or after that time zone. If b4, then look for highs @ 10am, if after then look for 2pm.

The Jaywiz index was only a .17 on Tuesday, and thus would not be denied its due, therefore the lower close. Today its @ .37, and thats quite an improvment with the oex pc ratio @ 1.66, and CBOE pc ratio at 1.09 , thus all 3 indicate possible upside day.

There is a conflict with the above summation when I review geological data, but some of it is still coming in, and I wont have a good fix until the am.

best for now
Jay

Where to now, oh brown cow?

Hmmm, Jaywiz Index =.17 caution flag is OUT

It doesnt seem that they would just stop right here
Arms index was only .59
8/1 Up vol
4.8 Adv over declines
however that jaywiz index and atmospheric pressure reading indicate some backing off tomorrow

Initial resistence is at 1343.75 spx, and if they open with a burst to that level, they will probably spend the rest of the day in lethargy.

98% UP volume should lead to further gains, and Im still expecting Thursday to provide a high in the spx 1355 area.

Jay

Fantastic rebound

March 10 = 55 trade days from Dec17 a low
= 34 tr days from jan 22nd low, actually 33 days

March 20 = 55 tr days from Dec31
= 34 trade days from Feb 1st -- both highs & This should also be a high

April 11= 55 tr days from jan 23 - a low
= 32 tr days from Feb 27, a high
April 11th is on radar for a low

may 2 = 39 tr days from March 10, a low
= 55 tr days from Feb13, a high
Todays 30 bar cycle low was @ noon and extended to 1pm

Tomorrow
90 bar cycle @ 10;30
126 bars @ 1:30
156 bars @ 4pm
Tomorrow should be a little sluggish, but they might start out with an initial burst.

expect spx 1330 to 1350 on Thursday, probably at 2:05pm

best wishes
Jay

That was a SERIOUS LOW

But how far can they go up??

If I look at the spx, and match up with the Jan 23 low of 1270 to today @ 1272, then we might want to say that was all wave 1 from October 9th to March 10., and 150 calendar days. or 110 trade days.
Does that mean something? I really dont know, but Im just looking at the symetry.

About 90% of my data signalled a low yesterday
the Jaywiz index = .32: NOt a screaming buy, but certainly no where near .14 of Friday.

259 bars did hit right at 3:55pm at spx 1272.66

When is the high? you ask; preliminary data indicates Thursday's close.
Spx 1576-1272 = 300pts rounded off, the same as the Jan 23rd intraday, but this time on close, and that is also beautiful symetry- Will that level hold? Absolutely NOT !!!!

But for now we should see the rebound move up to the following levels:
300 pts X 40% = 120+ 1270 = 1370 to 1390 maybe next weeks high on Jan 19th after the Feb cuts rates by .75 to 1.00%
300 pts x 23. 6% = 70 + 1270 = 1340 - maybe thursday's high

Fascinating how this is all taking place as we approach that infamous Armstrong date of March 20, 2008- What does it represent? Its supposed to be a transition from one economic stage to another.
SO, if stocks, OIl, Gold, Commodities all hit high points on or b4 that date, what happens after?

Put another way, if wave 1 completed yesterday,and wave 2 completes on Mar19th, then whats next is OBVIOUSLY The most infamous WAVE 3.

April is setup with 2 sets of Hard aspect clusters
April 6 to 11th
April 22 to 25
Because they are clusters, there is stronger harmonics at each one of those points
April 10 would then = 180 calendar days, = 13.5 ^ and April 25 = 194 days.= 14 ^

Best Wises
Jay

Jaywiz index

So far the Jaywiz Index @.14 on Friday told the story for today against all odds of making a lower low today.
Its 12:10 pm, and the spx is -13.87 @ 1280


bar counts today
11;30 - noon = 204 - 201 bars and so far it looks like the AM low @ 1279, maybe.
228bars @ 1;30 is next important low point, and we will see is it makes a lower low or fails to do so at that time.
Also 259 bars hits @ 4pm OR the open @ 9:35 am on Tuesday

Oil, and gold should start signifigant declines most likely on March 29th. & April should be a bearish month for both.

Best Wishes
Jay

What about next week ?

Dire predictions of a great fall?? --- I doubt it.

Even tho the Jaywiz Index was a .14, I think the negative effect will effect ONLY the open in the first 5 minutes.
As I look at the wave action friday, it looks as if the last hour could be counted as a wave 4, and part of Wv 5 which should OPEN monday on the previous low or above at or near 1283.

Most everything else I am looking at is pointing toward a rebound thru at least Wed.

Bar counts for Friday were strange and probably offset by the new moon @ 12:15 where there was a low point.
the day did open - 100 AT an unusual 102 bar cycle
Even the low of the day @ 2:44, hit at 168bars, and again not my usual count
Now the end of the day was 180bars, and as I have mentioned many times b4, that cycle could effect the next day's open, thus my projection above.

Most of my TECHNCAIL internal readings are oversold and have been since Tuesday's close, but that doesnt mean we get an instant rally.

Now that weve had 4 days of oversold readings, it should work well the next 3 days other than the open on Monday. many of the ratios that I have developped are indicating a bounce also.

Dates for March
March 7th LOW
March 12 high
March 17th low
March 19 high
march 20 low
march 25 early day high
march 26th low
march TOP

As you can see its a very complicated month

Best Wishes
Jay

Was that the LOW?

I did ask that question b4, but this time it looks like the open hit @ 102 bars, and unusual cycle point, but leads me to look for another bar hit @ 126 at 11:30am

As I pointed out, the Mars 180 Pluto had its effects at the open, and was in charge all day yesterday.

Obviously, there should be some back and fill today, with the biggest gains on Monday, and Tuesday.

It is possible the 180 bar cycle @ 4pm COULD hold out for the low of the day, but I wouldnt count on it.

The NEXT 2 weeks thru March 28th appear to have bullish overtones.

Best Wishes
Jay

mars still in control

might be a day too early to get bullish;

Tech data says go, but 180 apsect says no.

Mars 180 Pluto still in control until wee hours tomorrow

New moon at noon could still be a problem also

Jay

Looks like an upday

most of the things I look at in the AM seem to be indicating a strong upday today

Excpect for 30 bars cycle low at the open which appears to be signalling a mild lower open,

other times today are
60b @ noon
90B @ 2.30

I would then be looking for a much weaker open on friday, but also a good close, as mentioned b4, and very strong Monday follow thru, and a little more on Tuesday

Bradley date is the 8th which is a Saturday, thus monday is nnt out of the question for the actual high.

Jay

See- Saw

Did I say march 5th would be UP, YES I DID
Did i say it wouldnt be easy- YES I DID

Many of my ratios did give a short term buy yesterday and that should be good till march 14th.
However, it still wont be that easy;

Looks like a high tomorrow @ 2:15pm
there are bar cycle hits
60 bars @ noon
90 bars @ 2:30

I am still expecting friday to open lower, but close well leading to a very strong rally on Monday & Tuesday- spx should get to 1355 or more.

After Tuesday, it should hang or back off slightly, then topping on the 14th.

Big $$ can then be made on the market with a lower bias 14th close thru the 20th.
Even a .50bp rate cut will only account for an initial knee jerk up, but it wont hold.
Even good news during a stressful time period is bad news.

Jaywiz index today = .46 and thats quite a change from .13
not quite a raging buy, but its matching the other signals indicating an uptrend ,or at least a short term buying spree.

Best To All
Jay

March 5th and were Up

just as I projected earlier this week, march 5th is an up day.

Yes Sadie, and Steve
CBOE pc ratios @ 1.24 and 1.20 last 2 days seem to be overiding the OEX pc ratios at .77&.80
However, that wont last longer than today.
Jaywiz Index @ .13 still indicating more selling.
Now today, you will see the CBOE ratio drop under 1.00.

Typically, the OEX pc DAILY ratios under 1.00 are bearish. it means more call buying than put buying and that is a contrarian indication. I dont keep a 5 or 10 day ave, but ive been recording them daily for at least 5 years.

From the Feb 27th HIGH, I'm counting March 4th close as Elliott wave minuette 3, now looking for minuette4 today, and 5 tomorrow into friday at about noon which completes minor wave 1.

thanks for the feedback
I am on several yahoo financial group sites where discussions are directed to short term trading, and I do get a lot of information daily. yesterday one of the Elliotticians issued a buy order right at 2pm, just after i wrote my last update, and it was good to see a confirmation of my own outlook from another analsyst.
Jay

Was that the low ??

JAYWIZ Index says ____ NO___ recorded @ .13 & very very bearish
More selling to come, but Im still looking for that March 5th intraday high

Once again with the mars 180 pluto and new moon hitting @ noon on 7th, it appears that the 6th and part of the 7th will sell off.

If the market recovers late Friday like today or better, that opens the door for a very good Monday and Tuesday which already have impressive bullish readings.

Mar 180 pluto = RED ALERT according to those who predict such things.

OEX pc ratio aslo bearish @ .80 and was .77 yesterday
Vix still has room to get closer to 30.00

Gold collapsed today, dow usually follows.

Best wishes
Jay

This week 3/7

HI Peter, yes I do refer to WCA
Hi Sadie - 55 trade days can complete low to high, low to low, etc.
Now got
Mar7th high
march 14 higher
March 21 low
Mar 28 high
April 11 major low

Still got Wed march 5th as a short term high <>

DO be careful about the 6th. WCA shows both 6th and7th as DOWN
Charts edge shows both 6 and 7 as UP
WELL now, they both cant be right, so whats it gonna be.

MY WORK indicates a sell off on the 6th, and then a strong Rally on the 7th
Early hours of 7th has a mars 180 Pluto = RED ALERT for the 6th.
Bradley is the 8th and should be a high

Jaywiz index today is .36-still low or bearish, but not an outright sell which has occured under .20
CBOE pc ratio = 1.24 and friday was 1.27, both typically bullish
OEX pc ratio = .77 and thats quite bearish
Vix @ 26.20, NO buy signal there

90 B cycle hit today @ 11:30
126B cycle hit 30 minutes late @ 3pm

Tomorrow
156 B @ 11 am
180 B @1pm
204 B @ 3 pm

Best Wishes
Jay

Cycles

Feb 28/29 = 55 trade days from the DEc 10th low
Also using a 1/2 cycle from Jan 22/23 = 27 trade days

March 5th = 55 trade days from the Dec17th high

the month of March

March 5th = a high
March 7th a Low gravitational low due this week
March 14th = a high = 55 trade days from Dec 31st a, high
April11th a MAJOR - MAJOR LOW

Jaywiz Index for Friday = .28, not very bullish, but certainly not the same as Thursday@.17
So far its been quite consistent within an 80% ratio
It augmented other tech readings such as:
5day arms @ 76.6, a sell Jumped Now to 116.8
5 day trin = 383, a sell jumped now to 584
10 day trin=877, a sell now to 1065

those readings are not screaming BUY signals,but have taken out the danger signs, or so it would seem

Best for now
Jay