Chart of Interest

FRED says TOP is IN or NEAR

Matches MY assessment

Jay

FAILURE to HOLD these higher levels would add to the death knell for spx

this chart has spx 956 at that solid red line

getting to 988??? I sincerely doubt it

Jay

JUNE 11th

I was looking for a chart to post but not out there to my liking

anyway today is again showing MIXED results

futures are moderately lower toward open and so is the
activity index which is bouncing between low #s of 66 earlier at 8am
to NOW at 100 at 9am

Pwr index also lower for open but after a small recovery slips lower later
no real change from yesterday's outlook for today, except NO open high
Propens index shows potential for rally high to challenge 950 ONCE again

summary
after a lower open we should expect a rally to maybe noon to 1pm
then steady slide into close

I like the PROSPECTS for tomrrow according to the power index
which shows a HIGHER open, and steady sell off afterward like yesterday,
with possible later recovery.

As far a NEXT week
PANICS cannot be seen in advance UNLESS you are reading natural energy patterns

Jay

Chart of Interest

Freds latest chart shows the TRIPLE **TOP **IMO, and support at spx 925, then 920,
both just a spx beat away

previous Gap at 919.40

Im sure they will fight to keep above 925/920, but once that goes, its 875 next

Jay

GOLD

10day GOLD chart of GLD

from the HIGH of June 2nd and 3rd
count 5 waves DOWN to a low on Monday AM

THEN COUNT 3 waves A-B-C to this morning at 963

NOW entering WAVE 3 DOWN

See the OBV - slipping lower
MACD , cant really tell yet, but the blue line seems to be
in the midst of crossing under the red line

Ult osc heading lower
________________________________________________
stocks
Activity index has now risen from 133 level at 11am to 200 now at noon
Deos that insure a rally?
NO, but it sure has some potential - We'll see how it performs later
__________________________________

Looks like a TRIPLE TOP is forming on the DOW at 8835 & SPX 950
950-650= 300 pts
a 1/3 correction = 100pts
can it happen?? yes
will it happen ?? Maybe
When will it happen ?? VERY SOON
_______________________________

JUNE 10th IS HERE- finally, and the next big move potential as above
June 17th fibo cycles convergence
144 days - Nov 20
233 day - July 15, 2008
377 days - Dec 17, 2007
All are low to low
ALSO 34 weeks Oct 10th, 2008= 171 tr days
& 71 tr days March 9th, 2009
and of course the 60 year cycle from 1949

228bars @ 2;30 on 17th
258 Bar cycle on 18th = 10;30am

Astro events harmonic 3 day CLUSTER June15 to 17
more on that later

Jay

June10th update

6 month chart looks like its rolling over
MACD
OBV
Ult Osc

10day looks similar

SPX hit 949.77 at open,
Dow hit 8834.93
and YES I added more shorts

its does look like 11;34 will offer a low this AM

activity index hit 233 earlier today and has slipped to 133 at 10am

more later
Jay

June Swoon

Heres another great chart from Ibo

NOTICE the SMOOTH nearly unbroken wave on the rally from March 9th to June 9/10
90 calendar days = nice symmetry

Anyone else see it as one wave such as a large "A" with NO break yet for the "B" wave

If< as most of us suspect, March 9th wave was the bottom of a very large wave 1 = 17 months in a very long bear market still unfolding thru 2012, then what we are now in might be a wave 2

And since it took 17 months to complete, we should expect wave 2 to last at least 6 months to complete its work which would take us to October where we normally expect the market to take its dive OK, lets come back to present looking at the chart again we have NOT had what might be called a sell off against the main up trend since March 9th However, June10th to 17th IMO

the next question other than time is HOW low is LOW ?
anyone got good idea?
spx gains 300 pts nearly unbroken sets up possible 1/3 swoon??
100 pts in a few days- not out of the question, but not your everyday occurrance either.

more later
Jay

This Week

We are now past the June3rd to 6th Bradley turn zone looking at the next dates of June14 to 18 & 26.
June14 is a Sunday so we would expect a turn IMO lower on the 12th
Ending on the 17th, 18th open with a huge recovery by months end on the 26th
NOTE the 26th is shown on most Bradley charts as a low- dont believe that-
__________________________________________

Today we have
activity index at 9:15 FLAT at the 100 level = bearish
VHF @ 6 = ditto
flux @ 0 = bitto
dynamic at the lower end of its scale, but at 9:25 is slight off the lowest level
power index for today starts at 325, then 300, and ends at 350
propens index at 3000 drops to 2990

Bar cycles
228b @ 10:30
258B @ 1pm
either one could be off by 15 min in either direction
hourly
9:45 first open target for a low
11am
1pm 3pm

summary
Today, the SELLING PRESSURE seems to be ON till 12;30 to 1pm

____________________________________________
TOMRROW
power index jumps to the 500 level all day indicating a recovery from today's low

________________________________________________
Wed astro has some hard aspects up until 11:34 am
and the power index starts the day at 300, but closes at the 500 level

________________________________________
Ths
has a 13day cycle event at 2pm
258bars at 3pm
venus 90 moon at 3:45 pm
power index hangs at the 400 level
_______________________________________
Friday is called as uneventful and dull
pwer index also at the 400 level


Its now 9:55am and the dow is off 96pts
As mentioned on Friday, when the mkt turns lower on a Friday
it usually continues into Monday
more later
Jay

COMPARE energy

COMPARE the TOP chart to the BOTTOM chart

TOP CHART is RIGHT NOW and the next 2 weeks
**Shows a HIGh on or about JUNE 10th of which I have mentioned SEVERAL times
COMPARE TO NOV 13th

** then a SEVERE LOW on June17th/18th
SIMILAR to Nov 20

And subsequent rebound to EOM June
similar to Nov 28th


BOTTOM chart was the NATURAL ENERGY Graph for Nov 2008
Notice the Nov 13 high @ 8835 DOW
Nov 20 low @7552
Nov 30 high @8829

_______________________________________________

THE DOW GOT TO 8835 yesterday
COINCIDENCE or not ??

More Later
Jay

SPX Range

Some Bradley charts showed a high on June3rd and others June6th

And we have a waxing FULL MOON effect on June7th, a Sunday

Those FULL moons have had a lifting effect on stocks and a negative effect on attitudes

More Later
Jay

Here is a 10day/15minute CHART of the DOW
Im sure I dont have to point out the obvious to any of you

11am recovery in progress now dow +65
OBV is struggling to keep up on the 2day/ 1min chart
same for 5 day/ 1min
10day/ 5 min still tracking
10day /15 min as above in declining phase

Jay

Market exhaustion

Lack of VOLUME
NO support at highs
I bot an additional short position at today's open Dow +89
bottom chart = NO MOMENTUM on this last rally

Please soften & ameliorate your comments
Lots of rough edges yesterday - I realize we are all under great stress, and each day
that goes by withOUT a resolution makes it worse. I am ALSO WAY UNDER WATER -60%
We are very fortunate that OE is June19th
because as posted the BIG FIBO and CYCLE resolution LOW is JUNE 17th,
which means the price levels MUST now from here to there begin to sell off.
_______________________________________________________

Todays Plummet in Gold at the open -21, more to follow, including stocks
Stocks drop at 9:50, a minor 14.6%/13day cycle low
NOW at 10:15 dow - 33
150Bars @ 10:15am
180Bars @ 12;45 to 1pm
204bars @ 3pm
Sun 90 Saturn, that nasty son of a __
Saturn can lead to ruination, IF your a bull today
who do you think the PROFESSIONALS were SELLING TO this morning? Hmm.
_________________________________________--
Propensity index starts out at 2998 but finishes the day much lower at 2990
A STRONG Friday SELL OFF usually spills over into Monday
Power index starts Monday at a low level of 300, and builds to 500 later on
VHF more bearish today over the 5 level to as much as 9 so far today
___________________
258 bars is scheduled for 1pm on Monday
Monday, of course is NOT the LOW of LOWS, but it should be a good
start toward recovery for my portfolio, and Im sure yours as well

If you remember the READING for today :
$ is a touchy subject, and WOW we can vouch for that by the comments
Obstacles & aggravation - another wow
Harsh reality NOW sets in & watch your valuables

Any rally OFF Monday's LOw should be another shorting OPP, or a BUYING opp
at those lows if you want to go long, but I think its TOO later for that NOW.
Anytime I try to catch those quick moves, it doesnt work out well

Remember this also
I will be CLOSING OUT ALL my short positions on JUNE17th , andwill be BUYING Long postions
on JUNE18th looking for ONE hell of a huge rally into the 23rd and or the EOm

More Later
Jay

ELLIOTT Wave graph

Sam, Heres his graph of Elliott wave

LIKE many ELLIOTTERS and Ive mentioned this to Ibo many times
THEY ARE TOO SHORT SIGHTED and END waves tooo soon

IMO,
the "B" wave low as shown does not have to be the END on June5/8
as we are STILL expecting a LOWER low on June17th

Thus we have
an "a" wave low on June5th to 8th
a "b' wave HIGh on June10th to 11th
and a SEVERE "c' wave LOW on June17th

THIS WHOLE 3 legged wave would NOW be labelled as a "B"

Then the HUGE "C" rally to End of month as previously projected

NO CHANGES

June 4th performing as indicated so far
open low @ 60 bars was influenced by moon 150 sun at 10;30, a LOW today -35 dow
ITS now 11am & we got the recovery high at the 11am hourly TURN

Activity index has dropped from 233 early today to 100 and has been flat at that
level for about an hour.

VHF , is only mildly active @5 which is only mildly bearish.
Jaywiz index =14 = very bearish, but could take another day as we expect for the 5th
PC are ratios somewhat neutral
A high today at either 11am or 1pm should lead to a sell off as projected into the 5th at 3;11pm

more later
Jay

DOLLAR

A reversal on the DOLLAR seems inverse to STOCKS and Metals

in other words
the DOLLAR looks ready to RALLY

stocks and metals look ready to drop

Thanks for the Support, great comments
& links to other sites of relevance

Sam :: You can see how wordy those guys get just to make one point.
It seems that if they dont give LONG winded explanations,
they are worth buying their mkt letters

A trading LOw might run over to Monday,
but it will be very hard FOR ME to hold over the wkend
258bars cycle on Monday @ 1pm
And 1pm is a typical turn on the hourly

10am low on 60 bars came in a little late but the 6/3
bars have been about 15 minutes late also.

more later
Jay

Those darn bulls

thanks Billy,
AS I LAST wrote
It may take 2 to 3 days to get to a short term low on the morning of June3rd.

heres the stats
June3rd at 10:30am =13 day cycle low
June3rd at 11am = 258 bar low
power index opens at 300
prop index declining phase from 3004 to as low at 2992
THUS
A low should occur on June3rd by 11am

but here is the conflict
June3rd is a BRADELY date and thus could close higher
power index jumps from open @ 300 to 450 @ closing
_______________________________________
THE ABOVE WAS written on June1st.
UP close came in spite of ALL MY ATTEMPTS to push it lower --GRRR.
________________________

Now the REST of the STORY

Tomrrow has 60bars at OPEn and both Propens & power indexes agree with an opening DIVE.
However, this time there WILL be an INTRADAY recovery to MID DAY
and THIS TIME a FAILURE at closing which WILL LEAD To a severe sell off on Friday

Jaywiz index = 14
but the PC ratios are not as bearish
thus the support for a mid day recovery

GOLD, nice hit down 18.50
more to follow

more later
Jay

JUNE 5th AND 17th

attention traders !!!

Please verify that 34 wks from Oct 10th = June5th
IT doesnt,

but June5th is an important low regardless Sun 90 Saturn

In addition heres the outlook for JUNE5th
$ woes & depressive
Harsh realities & expect aggravation galore + obstacles
watch your valuables & dont sign documents

SOUNDS LIKE MY KIND OF DAY - the BEAR GROWLS & attacks
__________________________________________

BUT still not as

important as JUNE17th- June 17th- June17th
do you think I'm repeating myself?

WHICH IS -- YES IT IS = 34 weeks = 171 tr days
October 10th to June17th
June17th- June17th - June17th

**********
And now the rest of the story for june17th

34 wks = 171 tr days = Oct10th low to June17th
Yet to be LOW

March 9th to June17th = 71 tr days
ive heard this cycle mentioned occasionally
_________________________
JUNE17th , June17th IS ALSO
FIBO wealthy

233 july 15th,2008 - low to low
377 Dec 17th,2007 - low to low
144 Nov 20, 2008 - low to low
______________________
AND even more important
60 year cycle low to low from June17th, 1949
_____________________________
Dear Mr. Trader
please contact your nearest online broker to take advantage of this deal
OH Yeh, BTW,

This communication will self destruct as soon as you view it so no comments are necessary,
unless they are constructive.

Best Wishes
Jay

The Mortgage Mess

Heres another chart of interest

it shows the next mortgage debacle coinciding with the
Kondratief lows at the end of 2011, early 2012

Jay

recent chart from Ethan

it shows the market has come back UP to the ARC

Signaling the next major decline might be coming very soon

and coincidentally this is occurring just b4 my STANDING projection for a serious drop
from June10th to 17th

Jay

Cycle Conflicts

thanks Billy,
AS I LAST wrote
It may take 2 to 3 days to get to a short term low on the morning of June3rd.

heres the stats
June3rd at 10:30am =13 day cycle low
June3rd at 11am = 258 bar low
power index opens at 300
prop index declining phase from 3004 to as low at 2992
THUS
A low should occur on June3rd by 11am

but here is the conflict
June3rd is a BRADELY date and thus could close higher
power index jumps from open @ 300 to 450 @ closing
______________________________
4th seems to want to stand pat as the power index
opens at 450, slips to 400 & closes at 450

BUT

A more important low should then occur on friday @ 3:11 pm
Sun 90 saturn
204bars @ 3pm

Jay

Kevin Murhpy research

As promised from Kevin Murhpy

The theoretical Dow compared to the print is clearly telling us the market is getting weaker. At the on May 8 the Dow Theoretical high 8657, 70 points above the print high of 8587. On May 20 The Dow made a new print high at 8592, 5 point above the print high on May 8th but the theoretical high was 8645, 12 points below the theoeretical high on May 8th. So although the Dow went higher on May 20th, the theortical high was lower. So the second time the gap was 53 points, not 70. The result was a sharp sell off. On May 29th the Dow print high was 8523, which was 69 points below the print high on 20th. But the theoretical high on May 29th was 8541, which was 104 points below the theoretical high on May 20th. So clearly each rall is getting weaker and the market is saying it's done. I Still expect a final push up into June 4/5 but then the theoretical high should be rather pathetic and far below the Mid May highs. KWM
Jay