In 1992, I was involved with mortgages as the LOWER interest rates were allowing us to refi many
8 to 12 % mortgages down to as low as 4% for variables.
What the did is put Billions back into the hands of homeowners and consumers- THEY SPENT AND INVESTED and the BOOM market of the 90's exploded till Yr 2000. The INFLATED house prices then took over after the 2002 low and provided the Fuel for the current bull trend.
NOW we have JUST the opposite, but its not coming from low interest rates. HIGH GAS prices , homeowner Insurance and taxes is GOING to CHOKE this market once REALITY hits it. When ??? YOU ask- Wait- I will consult my crystal ball- OOOPS, its broken (G) Sorry, but I couldnt resist.
The consumer is aleady biting the bullet and it can be seen in Auto sales and general retail sales.
Actually retail sales have been declining for 3 years.
So, what is the market doing?? Ignoring the obvious?? maybe so??
The STOCK market is making up for lost time- Real estate prices went thru the roof from 2002 to 2006, and the Neptune opposition to Saturn put a STOP on that run. Whatever was INFLATED has begun to DEFLATE.
Since STOCKS are continuing to rise, it appears they are NOT inflated in relation to real estate.So where is the TOP ??, and WHEN ?? you ask.
Ive mentioned it b4, Jan 2010 and dow 18,000 is my time and price target.
Now that the cats out of the bag,
BUT thats a long way off, and we need to deal with next week.\
Monday SHOULD start with a WHOLLAP and be off at least 100 pts in the AM.
but should recover to top off the tank on Tuesday.
WEd to Monday May 14th in the AM should take away a good portion of the last 2 weeks gains, maybe back to the 12,900 level. but thats only a guess. Pinpoint the lower channel line.
Best Wishes
Jay
3 comments:
Jay,
I've noted your reference to the Bradley turn date and near/at potential resistance of channel lines for various indices but are there any particular market indicators that you could share that provide some insight as to being at or near at least a short-term top and any hints for the dates selected for potential nearby lows?
I am trying to get a better understanding of what the most important pieces of this market puzzel are of this at this juncture. Do you think this may be the top of the "B" wave previously referenced with the "C" retracing back near the March lows?
TIA, J.
Jay, I really think the Bradley Date was a low, as it's supposed to be. (You've said it would be inverted.) So next week I'm looking for fresh upside, which will launch a sustained drive thru most of May.
The bradley date of may 4th and/ or May6th concurs with the Jupiter/ Saturn TRINE
Those are the TWO big guns in our solar system, and that is the last time they will match up in trine
IMO, the Bradley date should have been shown as a high.
After May 14th, there doesnt appear to be any resistence to further gains.
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