THIS CHART is from IBO, one of my group associates and also a followerTHE above chart shows us on April18th at the top of WAVE "A"
a recovery wave off the March 9th LOW
That means we should NOW be in WAVE"B" heading down
into my previously posted date of June18th
3 mathematical methods to determine potential price levels
one of course is FIBO, and the other is the spx40 pt rule of thumb, and third is MMATH
1. Fibo
215 pt gain
23.6% x 215 = 50 = spx 825, duhh , we just stopped right there
38.2% x 215 = 82 = spx 793, and that could be next Monday's stopping point
**************************
2. 40pts rule of thumb
875- 40 = 835 got run over a bit and thus we extended to fibo 825
***************************
3. Murrey math
broken down by 8 pts moves
878 - 31 = 847 - 16 = 831 - 8 = 823 >has not breached it yet.
THEN-- NEXT is
878 - 62 = 816 - 16 = 800 - 8 = spx 792 >already mentioned above
THIS WOULD BE MY SUSPECTED LEVEL FOR APRIL27th
more later
Jay
62 comments:
As predicted
Monday at 11am is looking IMPORTANT
is now 10:45 and the dow is off 35pts
and spx holding above 825
see comments on previous post for
spx price levels
Jay
jay , just as you predicted in FEB. great stuff..... Apr. 17 high. June 18 low.
does C peak in May? how high
Nice chart Jay I am looking for the spx to tag the bottom side of that wedge around 865 then it will be either put buying time or selling calls.
Jay:
Another target for B is the starting point of the diagonal at 779.80, call it 780.
Astro8
SPX 865 , yes I agree
and I will be accumulating
puts on any DOW at or near 8050
Might come tomrrow from the open till 11am
and again later till about 2pm
Jay
Astro readings called yesterday and Today
Monday - explained this one b4
Tuesday- Monay improves, and so it did
Wed- EARLY surge
Thsday- early concerns
better later
Friday looks mixed
Jay
Thank You Jay, sounds good.
some of my work indicates a high today and some tomrrow
Really doesnt matter when at this time. It matters that I want to stat buying June puts anytime the dow gets at or above 8000 next 2 days
Today could peak above later today and then one more time tomrrow
The Bigger gains this week should come off that high to a low of 7500 area on Monday April27th
Welcome to the latest follower
# 58- please bring your friends
This is a free service and you can ask many here , Im sure it has proven profitable for them as well as myself.
As for me, ive explained b4- this site helps me organize my work into a reportable outlet keeping me in line with the market.
more later
Jay
TODAY
60 bars hits at OPEN
90 bars @ noon along with a 78.6%/13day cyle at 11;55am
From there we should see an afternoon surge, but the late afternoon should be influenced by
some negative astro effects
Jay
78.6%/13 day hit one hour later than scheduled at 12:55;
now we look for a 2:00pm to 2:30 recovery to get short again
Bot puts at dow Up 60, and sold them as 12;50 dow was off 25
11% profit
I will be buying more puts on the afternoon recovery
Some of my work indicates a higher open tomrrow, and other data says lower-
A little confusing for the moment, but overall it will pay to be SHORT the mkt regardless
and even if there is a last gasp rally tomrrow, thats fine with me also
Jay
Ok;;
Its DOWN for tomrrow until NOON
Saturnian influence
SPX should challenge 826.83 = Tuesday's intraday low at 11am
Afterward they should recover some into
friday at 2;38pm
BUT i still have Monday for a lower low, maybe spx 816
********
I joined market Guru, but they have no track record on me so I started trading BGU & BGZ, on paper
well see what they have to say when they get some results
More Later
Jay
Jay, How do I find you on Market Guru Do you have a link?? Thanks E
FWIW
Today, my propensity index says
sort of like simon says(G)
Up open Then early low as per bar cycle at 10;30 or sooner
HIGher late in day with last hour sell off
then HIGHER tomrrow with another late sell off
My game plan is to SELl the LATE high tomorow at 2:38 to 3pm
Unfortunately I will have to hold over wkend as the 27th appears at for now to emualte the 20th
I am reading a number of other blogs, BUT they are loaded with graphs & are very wordy, making it impossible to figure out whats next.
As far as mkt guru, Im only repeating by copy and paste what ive posted here
More later
Jay
Jay --Did you cover your shorts-at the close yesterday??
I covered my puts this morning
& am now FLAT and waiting another opp - got 2 good trades out of it.
yesterday and this AM
not sure if I want to buy in for some calls later today which would have to be after 1pm @ 180 bars
Astro readings this week have been superb
tomrrow calls for $ improvement and so far my propensity & power index agree with a rally.
spx got down to 836 as I write this , and if that holds today we should get a rebound up to 855 area = dow rally of about 200 pts
But today is really tricky as the index shows a late high today , then fizzling out, so buying and holding today could get whipped around
I suspect that buying calls on today's close would be a better choice as per the above readings
Jay
Jay,
you said " suspect that buying calls on today's close would be a better choice as per the above readings".
do you have the spx closing up tomorrow (Friday)?
this is a tricky market to play 201K's in.
I have to trade at end-of-day only.
tia,challo
Challo;
END OF DAY - thats a CHALLENGE
move that 401k into an IRA
You wont be happy with today or tomrrow
are you buying BGU & BGZ?
Just like yesterdy, both ths & Fri should sell off at the close of each day
I would think your best bet would be to buy BGZ at tomrrows High and sell it on Monday's closing low
Jay
Jay,
"move that 401k into an IRA"
wish i could :(
however, I DID move it into MM last Friday, thanks to you and others :)
I just looked at BGZ's chart.
Yowza! Over a 50% haircut since March?
Something bothers me here. The charts are just TOO text book.
Although we are in the 3rd day of churning around that long dark candle of Monday, EVERYONE sees the same patterns. A major evening star reversal pattern, ED, etc, etc.
Can it be that easy?
The fractals are different than the Feb and Jan 09 highs.
Perhaps we continue to consolidate in the indices thru that approx. May 5th date while the indicators reset.
somehow, i feel as if someone is sneaking up behind me . . . -g-
Does anyone even know what's going on now? I think I'll just stay long till May because most seem to be clueless.
"pinkslip" Penny
Hey Clueless !!
stay tuned right here
Just like earlier this week,
ANY run over 8000 to 8030 area will be MY TIME TO GET SHORT
Power & propensity index are pointing toward a high anytime between 10am and 3pm
So, to avoid any confusion
Im going to buy puts anytime tomrrow above dow8000
could be early, I hope, the Pool is begging for my appearance(G)
And believe it or not the whole thing could get repeated one more time on the 28th & 29th
Monday the 27th should close on a low, but I will have better detail on that Sunday night.
more later
Jay
I think the short term top is somewhere in early May - around May 4 or so.
- Shankar
I think we'll drop hard tomorrow after any pop. Big drops don't happen normally on Fridays, but the market is setting up perfectly for one. Huge drop either tomorrow or Monday. I think the time to get short was the close today.
It would be preferable for anonye
staying anon to at least use a letter designation so our comments can be identified
thanks
Jay
No change for today's outlook and the early futures are in agreement, but its only 8 am as I write this
Jay
Jay, Do you think we will be down hard on Monday ?? Eric
Jay--Your work and the effort you go through to post is much APPRECIATED--THANKS FOR SHARING !!
wow. the open is super bullish!! I think we go up 8 straight days with hardly a pullback - started counting on tuesday ofcourse so 5 days left. Beras are getting killed and EVERYONE is a bear now no matter where you look. We all can't be on the same side of the trade. Think about it.The sell-off ain't coming, at least not for another 2 weeks. I'm going to take money away from the bears today while they cover all the way up.
goodluck
Garth Benson
There's no way I want to be aligned with all these Elliotwave services who can't seem to call anything in advance. Even the Astro guys are seeing stars after getting so many calls wrong. The BULL is back baby.
Garth
Holy Crap batman!! We're in a wave 3 up!!
Jesse
I think this is an amazing time to short financials through etfs like faz, skf, or uyg depending on your risk tolerance. If the market closes higher, that will be ideal for a huge drop come Monday, but it will probably be choppy action instead. Good trading everyone!
ptg
watch out if wed. high get taken out. It mean market want to go up more than we know.
Garth: I know what u mean. I think mchugh and breakpointtrades.com suck especially elliotwave int'l and neowave. i'll never subscribe again.
thai lily
Bears RIP.
*SNORT* *SNORT*
da chief
This morning's spike is a gift for shorts. I hope we go way higher this afternoon so I can load up even more over the weekend.
-ptg
ptg --- sniff sniff.....what you smoking man? must be the cheap stuff.
humble1
humble, I'm only talking real short term and timing is everything. I loaded the boat on FAZ at $8.70 this morning and I'll probably dump and reload later today if I still believe Monday to be a down day. Let's see how $8.70 holds up and yes I'm snorting only the good stuff
ptg
and notice I said I'm shorting financials. Have u noticed how weak they are compared to spx? Why don't you load up on FAS over the weekend?
ptg
Ok CHIEF & others thanks
thanks for the comments
I hope you bulls bot in at yesterdays low at noon when the SPX was at 835.- I missed it-
got distracted -
BUT JUST AS PREDICTED in advance
RALLY ON OPEN TODAY
PREDICTED Spx to 861 and it got to 863.49
so far
predicted Dow to 8030 and it got to 8068 + 110pts
CAN IT GO HIGHER today ?
According to the power & propensity index there could be more later, but Im in SHORT about 60% on the 10am HIGH
Regardless of any further gains later, the close should be somewhat lower than the potential high at 3:38pm
If they run it up again later, I will go to 100% short
More later
Jay
Here is a chart i drew up on a 5 min of the SPX
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&i=p62182280433&a=166161131&r=491
My guess is 870 after the report then down at around 2:30 after they run it up.
ASTRO8 can't find my login ha
I agree w/ 870. Wave symmetry: Past few days: Take 861.78-826.83 = 34.95 Add 34.95 to yesterday's low: 834.45+34.95 = 869.9 or 870...close enough
ptg
Probably 875 today, then a pullback and possibly a run to over 900. The problem is that the Treasury is hitting the market for over $100 billion next week, so the run up may do a lower high in early May.
Sell-off won't come till Monday afternoon. Bears have to wait another agonizing day. And then you have to go long again soon after. So it's no fun being a bear right now- not with goldmansachs in control of world markets.
Dvd
Jay.
There are way too many blogs and timing services seeing the same darn patterns. each of these services have over a 5000 subscribers and many of those are hedge funds and mutual fund managers. The street is playing us. This is a bonafide fact. They've got their shills all over the internet and in all the blogs man.You have to go opposite the timing services because more and more sheep are flocking there for advice. Now the street is screwing everybody over.
Harper
Based on the amount of comments in this blog today and the emotional intensity. This Friday must be a CIT
8
Déjà vu!
TA Pather has triggered the same formula triggered last Friday. You remember what followed Monday - Dow -289.60
Looks like the bears are getting smacked up the side of the head today. Yeah today is a CIT. The CIT is UP. See you at SPX 1100 in a few weeks. You heard it here because you ain't hearing it anywhere else.
attaboy
btw. I know more and more unemployed workers trying to become overnight daytraders because they're desperate. Another reason to beware in here.
Coy
too bad TA Pather is WRONG 50% of the time. Anything but reliable.
Humble1
Nice my Time Price Projection is nearly complete and very close to the target. Here it is one more time
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&i=p62182280433&a=166161131&r=32
The dotted red line at 870 was it I am short now we could blast off to the high here too we have knocked on this door a few times now. We will see
Astro8
Its now 3:38 and the ACTIVITY index JUST took a DIVE
from 300 down to 125
we'll see what effect that has ont he close
Jay
McLaren was looking for a 1-4 day counter trend this week
http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/208/1/April-24-2009-CNBC-SquawkBox-Europe/Page1.html
And THERE it is
Activity index is for real
Jay
mcLaren should stick to Formula1.He's another bear the street is playing. Maybe he is the street. They're all over the place. I even suspect that more services and blogs are being started by wall st. shills all using elliotwave and some using astro and cycles. Monday will be an up day. All that happened at the close are happy Bulls booking profits to go out and party over the weekend. You're better off listening to Cramer's Mad Money.
beartrapper
I still like the odds of shorting over the weekend, especially financials. The ndx is at the top of its channel after a 30% run. It's very unlikely that tech will break to the upside Monday. Tech will lead the market down. So, it appears we go down hard Monday, but after that I'm not sure.
ptg
Thanks, Humble1.
I wouldn't want any newbies to think TA Pather is the gospel.
In the end, everyone needs to do their own home work.
Ah, I see a surprise coming Monday.
see daily cart, DOW hit the trendline
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1399335
compare SPX december rally with the april rally, same price/time
8
Is it just me or is the market curving like a rainbow towards a june waterfall?
- f
Jay:
1. For Friday, you changed your call for high from 2:38-3:00 to 3:38. What was that based on? I presume you adjust your major CIT based on actual timing of minor CIT. Is that the case? By the way, the high came at 3:08 exactly midway of 2:38 and 3:38.
2. Is there a way to have date show up in addition to time for each comment. When the chain gets long, it is difficult to follow the date.
Ravi
I have to agree with Harper's comments. Take for example the forum - Traders talk - Fearless forecasters - that board is filled with biaed traders whose constituents are made up of really bad traders and wall street shills. I count maybe a handful at the most who are truly unbiased(purely technical). The others have questionable intentions. Most of the good commentaters have left that board and I don't blame them because the great traders don't need hand-holding and can stand alone. It's coming to a point where internet sites are becoming distractionary equivalent to watching CNBC or CNN or Bloomberg. They can't censor the internet but they can flood it with misinformation and bias sentiment so neophytes have a harder task of sorting out good from bad. Anyway we should get a brief pullback this Monday, Tuesday followed by another surge and then drop into may 1st week. Afterwards it's a MELT UP into late May. Good money to be made in those parabolic spikes that typically end rallys.
Bye for now and remember - Trend is your friend until it's not.
RickyBobby
oh BTW, I noticed a comment from "Humble1". If this is the same trader from Trader'sTalk-FearlessForecasters -- BEWARE! I observed that this particular trader is well versed in psychological tactics used in a deceitful and manipulative manner. 3 weeks prior to the bottom he began galvaning extreme bearish sentiment by "crying wolf" many times except in this case he is the "wolf" and the bait. Worked like a charm. Since it's easier to create bears out of bulls he will no doubt project time and price for a TOP way further out beyond what he knows to be the real top so that when the top arrives the bulls will be oblivious while he positions ahead of them. Crafty, sneaky , dirty and perverse...but in business what else is new.
Rickybobby
Merriman is betting on a drop the coming week:
"Stock prices oftentimes do get a lift into the new moon, especially Taurus, which rules assets and equities. If so, look for that decline to start in earnest this week."
http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/weekly-comments-for-the-week-beginning-april-27,-2009/
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p73399751391&a=155363609&r=74
875 major resistance a pull back to the 20 ema would be healthy to continue a move back up. That would be 836 but a retest of the 850 area would be the apex of that wedge on on the 60 min. chart. Looks like it is starting to roll over making a scalp pattern can be powerful. Will be watching the 875 area the market loves to take out the stops before moving lower.
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