Freds thinking 1008
BUT he doesnt have my road map
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IT Started earlier, but at 6pm we HAVE
Merc # Jupiter == Excessive ideas fizzle
At 4am tomrrow we have Merc 180 Nptune
== BIG IDEAS DIE & Fizzle
Geez, I cant imagine why the mkt lost 50% of its earlier gains
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TOMRROW, Ive posted several times and wont repeat it again
multiple FIBO CYCLE CONVERGENCE
8 day cycle convergence
Multiple hard aspects
Midnite Low tide on Saturday
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I will be BUYING the CLOSE
more later
Jay
36 comments:
Hi Jay:
Now that five waves of A appear to be finally completed in a 16 days of strong upmove, I find it difficult to think of only one day + of B wave into Friday close.
If we reach anywhere near 956 tomorrow, I will be out of shorts. I am not sure that I will get into long side unless there is a clear 5-3-5 down to close of the day.
Ravi
I don't thinnk wave 5 is done. I think that we have a couple of days to go to the upside before wave 5 is finished. I mean the possibility is there. I don't think going down here is an absolute. AAnyway we'll find out quickly tomorrow if it dives or reverses quickly to the upside.
Stanley T.
needs one more leg up to me,i think we'll see a quick breach of the psycological 1000 mark today.futures are up again so far(surprise surprise) only an open below 980 would convince me otherwise.
YES , YOUR all correct
Bradley TURN today and another one on the 4th
POWER INDEX = High on 7th, but low on 4th
***However, the BULK of the decline should come today****
Yes, Ravi- 955 area, and I will also be OUT of shorts -today.
And I agree, 12 hours is TOO short a time, but 26 HOURS is JUST right on the 4th, and full moon LATE on 5th.
SO, getting long can wait till the close of the 4th
Ravi
Lets track that 26 hour cycle
it can be
hi to lo
lo to hi
hi to hi
lo to lo
11am on 23rd high
11am on 29th low
+ 26 hrs
11am on4th
1/2 cycle can be 13 hours=TODAY at 4pm
Jay
I'm trying new work in day-timing. I'll share -
Below are nominal times. Give 10 minutes on each side.
Most of the day seems positively biased. We don't get seriously involved with a downmove till 13:01. Some sort of ernest effort to move higher 13:58. Fails.
Intraday low 14:08.
We go into the close at a low. It may not be lower than the intraday low.
What if we did not complete (v) yesterday?
That will mean that the 27 point rally was just i of (v) and blast into iii of (v) with ii completed at 985. 985+27= 1012 or more just for iii of (v).
992.78 hi better hold.
Ravi
On the last note on what if (v) was not done at 996.6, it is possible to label the 27 point move as wave iii of (v), which can mean a hi marginally above 996.6.
Ravi
Coy
thats EXACTLY what I wrote yesterday
2pm is Merc 150 Uranus
and
120bars at 2;30
And yes the Days end COULD be lower
or not.
but
most likely it will be lower
stanley
wave 5 will finish NEXT friday and
or the 17th
Jay
Ravi
theres a perfect example of 26 hours
16days X 6.5 hours = 1040
1040 / 26 = 40
or
1040 / 52 hours = 20
8days = 52 hours is one of Ians favorite cycles
It looks like they are fighting the battle of a wve 2 of 'b'
at 11am, and its now 10;30
Activity is HOLDING at 233, so when it drops it will kill the rally.
Propens indicates a lower close
as does the power index
per COY and the timing I also suggested match
SO, Wave 3 of 'b' should hit either after 11am and or 1pm as the usual suspects on hourly timing
Maybe even 4 & 5 of 'b' today
Thats why Monday has such a powerfully positive reading
Its the rebound wave of "B'
Tuesday is NOT so strong and has issues in the afternoon
Game plan
close out shorts today at 4pm given a good late sell off
BUY calls on close
and hold thru NEXT friday. big run up to spx over 1000
You dont remember, but I did project spx to 1002 a few times
Jay
jaywiz.bragspot.com
Jay, You posted a lot of numbers a few times, so many high and low numbers to cover your ass that even a caveman can do it ( and get the same ugly results).
I've been reviewing this site for a few weeks and feel sorry for all the other circus characters losing their shirt with your calls. Your calls are such a joke. Go back to the pool and stay retired.
Folks, if you want to make money, do the opposite of this clown like another poster said the other day. This site is comical to take seriously.
Jay, if you were not posting your predictions for free, you would be out of business or sewed or heading to jail.
Tyler
Jay
Instead of long fuzzy outlook it would make sense if you give a weekly view of the market and then sit on that.
I think you are good on long term and not on short term or hourly.
Let others do their own analysis for day to day. FOCUS on your weekly, monthly and long term analysis and it will do good to all of us and you.
Ravi I have never seen any of your posts with any point that makes sense to a common trader.
We as traders need clear hints and not these long inconclusive posts.
pk
JAY.
Why do some people use a 21 hr cyle and some a 26 hr cycle?
Stanley
Hi, Jay/Ravi, keep up the great work as I appreciate it amongst others and have made money for my family and have protected downside risks; I value your daily feedback and near-future trending analysis. You make a call, back it up and if your off your off, when your on your on.
Now to the 2 stiffs that stated GDP has nothing to do with a run up or how the market reacts to the GDP media blitz, YA Right, Sure, Whatever bro.... NOW the MEDIA, July 31 -- U.S. stocks rose, adding to the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s best monthly gain since 2002, as a better-than-expected report on gross domestic product bolstered speculation the economy is recovering from the recession. This is just from cutting wages, bonus, layoffs etc.... but its still caused a run up to markets regardless of what you 2 Anonymous stiffs say..... I follow the TSE bullish Index which has served me well, hence my call to get into the market 3rd week of Mar when the lows were March 6/9
Plus, Sunday July 29 on this blog I posted market would run up into GDP Friday announcement, I also said this on July 23rd and mentioned elsewhere that we would run up to Aug 7th approx…. Lets see if the Aug 7th call works, its in line with Jays date now as well..
Thanks and GOD Bless
Joseph
TSX Bullish % is positive, its ok to look at double beta funds in my view. XSP the S&P500 ETF broke out of DT. That or HXU & HSU look attractive now for the CDN folks. On the TSX CNR also got into the act, Broke the resistance line and broke out of a double top = a new bull for this stock. Time to get more agressive in the pursuit of capital appreciation till the Aug 6/7, lets see. OIL will top at 68.50/69 possibly then come down and test
Jay and ravi thanks for your work I guess blogging brings the criticisms and it is part of the package.
But oyu have doen very good honest job and I appreciate the help.
sam
joseph
Answer the question.
hakan
Are we still having a massive drop today jay? Doesn't look like it. You emphasized all week how you're buying the close today. Why not emphasize buying this market up last Monday til now if you had 1002 projected...strange strategy. The first sign of weakness in the market and you want to buy today?
the cycles may delay for one or more days. or the cycles may reverse. that means, the market may go up, if not, may go down or just flat. piece of junk.
The market isn't going up today despite the GDP numbers which every cycle and EW guy knows does not mo=ve the markets.
Chris
//The 26hour Cycle just turned down so I don't know why people think it's going to suddenly reverse before the bottom of the cycle is reached.//
bk
21 hr cycle is the samea s my BAR cycle = 258 bars
and it is inside the 26hr cycle
they are 2 different types of cycles
21 hr is low to low as per my 258bars, but NOT LOWEST TO LOWEST.
26 hr as I posted can be
hi to hi
lo to lo
hi to lo
lo to hi
See the difference is clear
Some of the comments seem to be coming from ameteurs or beginners
Foolish talk.
Yes, Ive lost $$ on this round, and even if spx drops to 950, I will be happy to break even
BUT I know how to play the game, and will be back to win the next round
I dont expect to WIN every TRADE, but I do expect to come out on top.
ONE thing Im NOT going to do is pray for a lower day next week, or wait for the expiration
Did anyone even look at the 26 hr cycle I posted?
Its now 1;30 and the activity index HAS TAKEN A DIVE- NOW at ***100***, which is DOWN from 233 all day till 1pm.
& there is a 30 to 60 minute delay
SO, any downside action should begin shortly
Jay
ps; RAVI's ELLIOTT wave posting makes PERFECT sense to me, and Im sure the GOOD Sam will agree
TYLER
I post ONLY FIBO math and or MURREY MAth
that info is for those who dont know how to find those price levels
ITS NOT meant as a PREDICTION that is cut in stone
same as RAvi's numbers - not a prediction
MY prediction for spx 1002 was NOT meant for today, but should be achieved by next Friday
I dont know where you get your ideas from things I post.
Some of you think that just because I post a number it becomes GOSPEL
WELL ITS NOT
Just price levels on a FIBO or MM
basis that could be achieved
Jay
if we break above that 10.45 high,then its sayanora to any downside today and the ol end of month mark up comes in to play.be just like them to buy it up to highs again just when everyones getting bored silly with this sideways grind.
Jay. from one of the blog by Ian: what do you think. it sees a low on 8/5 and today low at 2:30 PM
6. Short Term and Intraday Time and Cycles:
6a. Short term Hurst Cycles:
The 10-12 TD (2-2.5 wk) Hurst Cycle made a 7/21L, 9 TD from the 7/8L, which was 10 TD from the 6/23L, which was 9 TD from the 6/10L, which was 9 TD from the 5/28L, which was 8 TD from the 5/15 Low, which was 13 TD from the 4/28L, which was 9 TD from the 4/15L, which was 9 TD from the 4/1L, which was 8 TD from the 3/20L, which was 10 TD from the 3/6/09 Major Low.
The 7/08/09 Low at 869.32 SPX is expected to hold for many months, as it is also the longer term Hurst 45 and 120 TD Cycle Low
7/30 was 7 TD from the 7/21 lows. We should have a minimum 2, 3 TD rally, but normally we should have 5-8 TD rally. The next 10-12 TD Cycle is due on 8/4 Low +/-2. This is where the MC has another Low (8/5).
6b.The hourly cash SPX (4th chart) has a convergence of 3 TL, suggesting we are at MOB Resistance/Support. There is a 100 hourly Cycle due tomorrow around 1.50 pm. There is a potential 3-Gap play made with the last 3 TD Gaps, suggesting we could fill all 3 gaps soon. There is also a 7/8 Symmetry Point (SP)/Mirror Image Cycle that suggests we rally into an 8/3 High at close. The MC actually has a 7/31 High and a down day on 8/3. There is also a JPTL (Junction Point of Trend lines) on 8/5/09, most likely another Low.
9 Gaps above: 5/20, 6/6, 6/18, 6/20 and 6/26, 9/26, 10/2, 10/6, 11/5 at 1005.75,
11 Gaps below: 3/10 at 676.53 SPX, 3/23 Gap at 768.54 SPX, 4/2 Gap at 811, and 4/9 Gap at 824.81 SPX/822.70 June SP, 4/29 Gap at 855.16 SPX, 7/15 Gap at 905.84 SPX, 7/20 Gap at 940.38 SPX, 7/23 Gap at 954.07 SPX, 7/28 Gap at 982.04 SPX, 7/29 Gap at 979.62 SPX, 7/30 Gap at 975.15
6. The 5 min SEP SP (5th chart) has 975 Sep SP rising TL support and 998 rising TL Resistance
(Reminder: Elliott waves are only a tool to explain the cycles direction in my work).
Intraday 5 min CIT Times 07/31/09: 10.45 and 12.35 pm EDT
Intraday Pattern: 10.00H, 11.00L, 12.30H, 2.30L, 3.50H
***Note: all intraday pattern times are usually +/-30, but could be +/- 60 min***
Thursday’s bias is a 1st hour high at the 10.45 CIT, decline briefly to 11.00L+/-, rally to a 12.35 CIT High, decline to a 2.30 Low +/- and rally into a last hour High.
Notes: We could also be in a High am to Low pm day. Watch the CITs for clues.
Speculative Path: 10.45 High and 12.35 High
Major Timing CIT Summary:
7/30 NDX CIT, 7/31 Su165Ju
Cycle and Swing traders Summary:
MC: 6/23L, 7/1H, 7/8L, 7/10H, 7/13L, 7/22H, 7/29L, 7/31H, 8/3L, 8/4H, 8/5L
The crisis of confidence continues and we are in the midst of the Jubilee 50 Years Banking Panic Cycle.
Mike
The look of the waves from yesterday's 996.68 is corrective.
Looks more and more that yesterday hi was iii of (v) and since then iv of (v). We have done a (a) down, and a (b) up and may be about to do (c) of iv and end iv in 980-982 area. That should lead to wave v of (v) on Monday with a hi that day or next in 998-1006 area.
If my last comment pans out, Jay may still get LOD at closing. But not a major down day.
A close in 980-982 area will be 4 to 6 points down for the day.
If this pans out v of (v) rally on Monday towards 998-1006.
Ravi
Mike
thanks for Ian's UPDATE
I was JUST coming to a similar conclusion that I will HAVE to wait for the 5th & FULL MOON LOW
to get the NEXT LOW point especially given the rally I expect on the 6th & 7th
since Today is a BRADLEY date, it represents a TURN which may have already come yesterday
the NEXT bradely date is the 4th, but Ian Has an MC date of the 5th where the FULL moon hits AFTER mkt hours
As you can see those Bradley dates can vary + or - a day in either direction
Activity index popped up to 200, but quickly dropped now at 133
126 bars at 3pm could supercede the 120 bar cycle and often does just that.
AND SO IT DID, but NO major sell off.
4pm has no important bar cycles
the next one is on MONDAY
150 bars at 10:30am
Jay
I WILL NOT BE POSTING ANYTHING NEXT WEEK
ITS almost 3pm, and UNLESS they take out 250pts in the last hour, I will NOT be buying any calls, and will not be selling any shorts
I still think that spx 950 is the level to look for the next BUY point and NOW, SORRY TO THOSE WHO HATE to extend time casts, but sometimes You just have to realize where the mkt is and whats NEXT.
ITS a matter of OPENING up your MIND to what makes timing sense.
& with a little help from other sources.
BTW, Im NOT an ISLAND with out any other resources.
the next 26 hr cycle
hi to lo
July 30 @ 3pm to Aug5th at 3pm
52 hr cycle hi to hi
July23 to Aug11th at 11am
and thanks to those who OFFER constructive comments that HELP ALL OF US.
Jay
so where is big drop you're talking about?
Thanks jay for the update. i will to hold on to the shorts until 8/5
Mahendra on his blog says that within three trading sessions we could have a crash like August 2008. would hate to sell short at the wrong time. does any one have access to his flash news? If someone can summarise, if not copy and paste verbatim.
sam
Ravi
the mkt and some comments are intended to make us believe there is another UPLEG coming on Monday
I DONT ADHERE TO That premise.
TODAY is a BRADLEY TURN DATE making YESTERDAY the BRADLEY HIGH
Monday has a Merc 120 Pluto at 10;10am, but its NOT a MONEY type aspect
and any rebound on that transit should be very short lived
Full moon on 5th says
Pay attention to money matters
Plans dont fall into place
DONT SPEND $$
look for the silver lining
overall a negative outlook for the day
I will start a new thread so this one does go bonkers
Sam- You, Ravi, Jospeh, After8 and others can carry on next week.
Jay
so Jay we going to hold onto our shorts until monday then?
Look at the $TRIN in 1 minute intervals. What do you make of it?
fwiw, my work says we finish down Monday.
Jay,
I have been following your posts for months , and find your forecasts amazingly accurate .
Of course you are never going to be 100% correct , but you are better than sites that charge $1000's of bucks.
The best site I have ever seen Jay.
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