You can pick whatever reason you want in hindsight
BUT Im going to STICK my NECK out and predict
an SPX 25 pt or Dow 200 pts LOSS Monday into 10;30am
and virtually flat the rest of the day
Now that the Market has just about everyone convinced its looking for 1108
and of course the floor wants you to BELIEVE higher highs are coming next week
They dont want the public butting in on their territory
And that decline is NOT as {Market Thoughts} pictured
as a wave 2 setback thus setting up the next wave higher
And just because some of us could NOT convince the mkt to turn on the 8th [g]
doesnt mean more highs are ahead -
more later
Jay
49 comments:
T-square of Saturn , Uranus , Pluto from Nov 15 2009 to August 2010.
Last time they were in such a position was 1929-1934.
Higher taxes , higher rates anyone ?
Watch buckie soar to 100.
Jay,
You gotta preety long neck I see. If it doesn't happeen on Mondaay, you know you woon't hear the end of it for a while bra.
goodluck.
you gonna neeed it
tlc
I agree with UK trader, everyone is shorting buckie, may be rally on the $ soon
Simon says: 10/16, 19 to start the sell-off @Teleos @jhamon I am favoring 10/19 rt. now but this may chg; been tooting this 1 for awhile :-)
The Flash
Well Jay,
I love to a big sell off on Monday, but it's a holiday and there won't be many traders there to do it. The PPT (aka Goldman Sucks) will be there to buy up any sell off. I don't see it happening. I'm expecting a flat day.
But, Tuesday through Friday should bring in some heavy volume. And you know what big volume means... Can you say "Sell"?
My weekend post is up, with more details.
Red
P.S. I'm still short and will be going more short on Monday or Tuesday.
Power index this week
Monday DOWN
Tuesday Up= one day rally
Wed Down
Thursday LOW
BUY Friday AM for one day rally
______________
Propens index
Down on 12th
Up on 13th
Jay
Hi Flash
Thanks for the updates
I am Reviewing my data for possible low on 15th
rally on 16th
off day on 19th/ AM of 20th
CHOPPY rally 20th to 23rd
= another Bradley high
Jay
Tomorrow will be light volume rally day due to the holiday...just like past yom kippur. Stop shorting until you see weakness. Futures are already making new highs.
x
where's ARAK0. have you guessed the right direction yet?
xx
22/44wk cycles nesting today usually mark LOWS- but this convergence now, well-----
also
From a WELL known analyst
The IDEAL scenario would have seen a LOW last week with a rebound into the 16th
BUT
instead the action opened the door
for a decline into OCT 16th. ITS teh MID opint between SPT 23rd high and NOv 13 projected lows
the WEEKLY trend appears BULLISH.
However, this is only true because there has not been an oversold condition created yet.
on the surface this APPEARS to be BULLISH,
however,
THIS condition ALLOWS for a MORE POWERFUL {C} wave DECLINE to occur.
The opposite occurs also, as even the 1987 decline did not turn the monthly trend to down.
THE DOLLAR spiked LOWER than SPT 23rd BUT DID not CLOSE under that level
same could be said for DOW & SPX
as previous highs
5th wave FAILURES ???
or IRREGULAR "B" wave retracement following an extension
?????
The EXACT labeling will follow after the fact.
Jay
9:45 am is 39 hours from OCt 2nd at 9:45 low
Bad idea shorting last Friday. Switching to long. Obivously they want 10,000 now...maybe short later in the week. Futures cleared a path to new highs.
ptg
nov 23 low??
...finally Jay. now you're seeing the light. took long enough.
the market has got the majority fooled again. Only a scant few are seeing a mid to late Nov. low.
but that's the way I like it.
we gonna take their money.
Billy
200 point drop today? Hahaha...you're too funny jay. Good luck w/ that
ty
Will follow up shortly, but getting extreme reading showing that today we top. Option activity is crazy!
We just need to get the poke new highs on the INDU and SPX before heading down.
-dmo
reddragoonleoo
how the heck can yoo twade off yoor analysis? Its aw jus talk but no real tecnical info.
goober
xx,
I did guess the setup for a ramp and exited my shorts yesterday night 1/2 on BE and 1/2 on the break of 1071.5.
Check my comments on the previous posts where I commented on Es volume into the close.
JAY!!!!!
wtf!!!
wheres the drop?
Ishorted expecting this big decline.
now Im losing money....again!!!
thanks a lot
carl
ARAKO
you change your mind so often Im getting whiplash. for what. apoint here and a point there.
your last 3-4 trades went bust. but more importantly you have no sense of longer term direction.
xx
SPX versus 5-day moving average of equity put at turning point (stockcharts can not interpret intraday option values so the turn back up here is wrong. Current equity p/c is 0.56): http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$CPCE&p=D&yr=2&mn=1&dy=0&i=p62077939227&a=180469947&r=5374
VIX/SPX relationship needs to turn down here to stay in channel. If it follows its cycle since the low, today is the day: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX:$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p50848249643&a=180466117&r=6990
ISE equity index is at 322!!! This will trail off throughout the day, but this is still very high for 10:30.
http://www.ise.com/WebForm/viewPage.aspx?categoryId=126&header2=true&menu0=true
New highs/New Lows not pretty. Posting NDX, but DJI is the same. It should post some real extremes after today. http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAHL&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p37697220173&a=180350051&r=8708
SPX and DJI so close to new highs, NDX lagging a bit here. One more push up should take care of it.
-dmo
JAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarghh!!!!!!
what happened??????????????
are u still short???????????
my wife's wailing like a baby. She wants to divorce me now. Oh no.....she's about to lay a whippin on me now!!
carl
xx,
out of my last 10 trades, I lost 1 to 3 points on 7 of them and got 19, 24 and 46 points on three of them. Overall, I'm up based on my winners. Keep the losers small and press your winners to the end. That is how I trade. FYI ... this is what got me 43.5% YTD on a cumulative basis after taxes and commissions. This may not appeal to everyone.
Jay, are u still in tza at 12.31 and bgz at 25.65? If so, how long are you planning on holding these? I noticed your twitter updates
http://twitter.com/jaywiz10534
A poke to new highs on the INDU will spike the New Highs-New Lows to obscene levels. Here is it 10:45 and we are already 7 new highs away from the highest reading in 2 years.
Don't be part of the blow off.
-dmo
Carl
Im short and adding more
a sudden reversal will tell
the story
Im not the ONLY one reading this mkt as a top
Look around
Jay
this is working to a script .. just like SSEC. momentum high first, price high next on low volume. then a big drop. Lines up for a price high between 12 thru 15. This is why I had asked Jay about the 13th as it is 8 trading days since we saw the first green candle. Looks at the previous ramps and you'll see what I'm going after.
arako,
my point exactly. 7 out of last 10 are bad calls on market direction. Not to good in my book. who cares about your risk management. everybody should do dat. But as a market reader you up there with atilla-the-market-wont-move-without-me.
xx
xx,
I did not say I'm some market oracle. Just another trader who is more wrong than right. Out of the 7 bad trades, 4 would have worked right had I kept my stops at 5 points instead of 2. However, my tolerance for a trade going against me is sometimes way to little that little wiggles can shake me off.
The trades I report here are for my trading account that is a hedge for my retirement account that has been fully long since ES 765. Current stop for that account is ES 982.
xx
Please find some one else to heckle
Arak has posted his trades
and you continue to find fault with everyone without offering any constructive
comments
Jay
Back testing the broken up trend line from July lows on the SPX.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p74891637123&a=162177675&r=4040
-dmo
ISEE Equity Option Value at 326 still, it has actually moved up over the past hour. It should still tail off into close, but the high closing reading ever was 279, on 10/08/07.
The very next day was the highest close on the SPX at 1560 and we did nothing but sell off hard for a year.
Don't be a part of the blow off top!
-dmo
Jay, all, anyone having problems buying the BGZ or other leveraged funds. tia jz
New Highs-New Lows at 2 year high. Divergences every where on technicals from 9/23.
-dmo
Don't let today fool anyone. We are on pace to have similar volume as our last 6 up days.
Where's this 200+ pt drop? Notice how selling is very weak...that's because it isn't selling. It's consolidation for a rally higher tomorrow when the big traders return.
DOW 10,000 will make big headlines...less than 100 pts away
I think whenever the trend changes, it will be straight down. US gov is under pressure to take out excess liquidity by the end of month. No wonder they are messing with Jay's analysis. Our day will come soon.
Lots of in the money calls still open. MM will have to either push the market down or hedge and buy futues. If they hedge, it can push the mkt. to 1120 in a blowoff.
sam
thanks dmo
excellent charts and data.
YES Reza, very very soon,
by Thursday, they will be singing the bear street blues
Watch out for LOW on 16th at 10am and up the rest of the day.
BUT 20th has 13day segment at 2pm, and other cycles, should make a short term low
Late on 20th then Rebounds to 23rd and or 28th- down again after.
Jay
Jay, how does today's cylcle number look? Close at the LOD? Tyansk. Your 200 point drop scenario may become reality.
Hi Billy
That was NOV 13th, BUT
NOV has some very positive trends
NOV 2nd is a 610 day FIBO low
but the month overall looks quite positive
I had written several times earlier this year that a NEW trend would start on OCT 10th, (but of course it cant be Saturday), that would last TILL March 2010.
IT might have started at 10 -11am today as that was 39hrs from OCT2nd low. which relates by 39 hours to Spt 23rd hi.
and wave 1 DOWN WILL END ON NOv 2nd at 610 FIBO cycle.
There seems to be 2 6day cycles operating within each other
the next one points to Oct16th at 10am for a LOW, and the one after hits on the 20th at 2pm
As FLASH has posted several times could start on 16th and or 19th as I think he means.
I Think we both agree on NOV 2nd, for the next TURN
Wave 2 should carry till MID to Late Jan and ONCE AGAIN FRUSTRATE everyone with its tenacity to hold up.
However, the real 3 of p3 looks possible for FEB & March
I dont know why I post those dates as NO ONE remembers, and only make note of the NEXT day action
I should really WAIT for the DAY prior and then announce it.
OCT 12th is 39 hours at 10-11am from OCT2nd at 10am = lo to high
more later
Jay
Watch the candle on the SPX 13-EMA hourly. It touched it again on the last push down and are trying to give it another tail.
A close beneath the 13-EMA at 3PM should finally start to break this thing. 1057/58 as first stop followed by 1042.
-dmo
ST trend just rolled over. Holding
%100 short QQQQ from avg. 42.06
or SPX 1057
im looking for a slight new high in the first 30 minutes of trading tomorrow, then a solid trend down day all day.looking for around 1084 to get me on board.i dont think this is the top we're waiting for though.those gann angle crosses i mentioned last month are looking increasingly like nailing the top not only in time but price as well,suggests another week to 2 weeks before a top somewhere around 1140.watch this space...
Bought faz $18.86 and shorted gold at the close. I'm probably wrong though since 10K for the DOW is so close. I'm just a contrarian by nature. I'll quickly switch tomrrow if I have to.
ptg
all you boys are funny.
tomorrow we gap up and never look back. DOW 12000 here we come.
bnn
This is what you call a permabear blog...like xtrends. Careful what u read here. At least Jay might get tomorrow right since he's saying it's up.
Jay why do u bother posting dates so far in the future when you're having trouble just getting tomorrow right? U still see Tuesday as up or is it flipped now since your Monday prediction was wrong?
x
I personally think arako is the best trader in da world.
lolololol
xyz
this blog is turning into a circus filled with broke'n clowns.
Carl Futia
good luck Jay and God bless.
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