Massive selloff should start tomorrow to wipe out this anemic volume rally last week. I think we'll gap down and selloff quick so those who didn't short Friday will miss out on yet another major downtrend.
As I noted on Thursday (http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/2009/11/thursday-midday-update.htmlz), I was torn between two possible counts, as would be watching the 10 min Renko to provide some clarity. My best read of the charts is that wave [iv] completed on Friday and, typical of an Opex week, we'll see a slight bit of upside this week to complete the fifth and final wave of this bear market rally. For several months, I have held 1108.31 as the ultimate target and see no reason to deviate from that now. On the Renko, we are due for anywhere from 1-3 white bricks for a typical 10 min wave [v]. Below is a 1 min chart for the SPX. I have this count in place.
I have compiled a list of some 10 -15 ElliotWave Blog links. Basically whatever the majority of them say is going to happen is a signal that the opposite will happen and it's pretty much 90% accurate.
I just can't believe they don't try to support the dollar while Obama is in Asia to take some heat off him with the Chinese I'm guessing this is a headfake drop on the dollar and after midnight its starts getting strong
I Sold to eeeearly!! 1120 is like a magnet and I guess were going there or pretty close to hit. Not sure if many of you longs have the same issue as me but I always sell to early regardless If I buy a Bull/Bear ETF... For short term guys like many of you it doesnt matter but for folks like me that hold onto stocks for weeks/mths it sucks to leave profit on the table when you have been patient...
I've been scaling short since Wednesday. Looks like I'll have to scale one more time tomorrow morning, but it should pay off nicely since 1100 will be a formidable ceiling.
Jay, you still expecting the open higher tomorrow to sell off into a low on Tuesday? Thx. I'm short from Thursday so I need to figure out if I want to add more shorts or not.
11-16-09, the first hour last Monday gapped up and never looked back all day closing the day at 1093. The remainder of the week saw a second futures forced gap up Wednesday to a new high at 1105 that gave it up for a drop to 1085 closing the week at 1093. The favored pattern for this week has 1082 as solid support and 1110/1116 as target resistance no later than late Wednesday or intraday Thursday. From the 1110 areas a drop back to 1080 by options expiration Friday is favored.
24 comments:
All hell about to break loose below 1040 according to Topstep pit trader .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqMuyI_9wuI
Hi UK
I really doubt 1040 this month, but it reamins to be seen, of course
1045 is the next lower fibo under 1070
We need to put some perpesctive on the wave and cycles
Tomrrow is 18 wks from JULY10
Dec 30 is 20 wks from July10
what that means to me is that the mkt is under cycle pressure to go lower during the next 2 weeks
BUT once the 18wk cycle is hit on Monday, they can rebound quickly thus holding the spx in a very narrow range between 1105 and 1050
ANY sustained serious downtrend does NOT look possible until AFTER Jan15th Eclipse
Jay
This is why I am expecting a sell off and a 9 handle within 6 weeks - even the most perma-bears are now turning bullish and most have capitulated.
NO-ONE is expecting the market to go down.
So it will. ha ha
Uktrader
Youre 100% right.
tlc
this blog has a habit of putting u off-guard just before a swingtrade!
hal
Massive selloff should start tomorrow to wipe out this anemic volume rally last week. I think we'll gap down and selloff quick so those who didn't short Friday will miss out on yet another major downtrend.
Permabears like soh are looking for another peak. That's a nice sign that we selloff immediately tomorrow imo
x
x
goodluck
you need it
y
Look at the futures POP!!!!!!!!!!!
yipee
y
Futures up early is good. Then when profit taking happens, we'll gap down tomorrow morning. A top is near or just past at 1105.
ty
"Next week will be a bloodbath" - atilla. He's been more accurate lately and so has his buddy sol. This ramp in futures won't last
anon...
you won't last after being wrong so many times.
hahaha
y
poor bears. gonna get the Bull horns this week as we rally into ..
OPEX!!!!!!!
y
As I noted on Thursday (http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/2009/11/thursday-midday-update.htmlz), I was torn between two possible counts, as would be watching the 10 min Renko to provide some clarity. My best read of the charts is that wave [iv] completed on Friday and, typical of an Opex week, we'll see a slight bit of upside this week to complete the fifth and final wave of this bear market rally. For several months, I have held 1108.31 as the ultimate target and see no reason to deviate from that now. On the Renko, we are due for anywhere from 1-3 white bricks for a typical 10 min wave [v]. Below is a 1 min chart for the SPX. I have this count in place.
alphahorn
I have compiled a list of some 10 -15 ElliotWave Blog links. Basically whatever the majority of them say is going to happen is a signal that the opposite will happen and it's pretty much 90% accurate.
What's the consensus now?
Immediate sell-off
Ain't gonna happen....until afetr OPEX
y
I just can't believe they don't try to support the dollar while Obama is in Asia to take some heat off him with the Chinese I'm guessing this is a headfake drop on the dollar and after midnight its starts getting strong
rrman
don't bet on it.
ptg
I Sold to eeeearly!! 1120 is like a magnet and I guess were going there or pretty close to hit. Not sure if many of you longs have the same issue as me but I always sell to early regardless If I buy a Bull/Bear ETF... For short term guys like many of you it doesnt matter but for folks like me that hold onto stocks for weeks/mths it sucks to leave profit on the table when you have been patient...
Thanks
Joseph
rrman, u should bet on it
ptg
I've been scaling short since Wednesday. Looks like I'll have to scale one more time tomorrow morning, but it should pay off nicely since 1100 will be a formidable ceiling.
Jay, you still expecting the open higher tomorrow to sell off into a low on Tuesday? Thx. I'm short from Thursday so I need to figure out if I want to add more shorts or not.
Joseph
That OPEX is acting like a magnet, time-wise as well.
Always funny stuff happens during OPEX week.
goodluck
Sally
11-16-09, the first hour last Monday gapped up and never looked back all day closing the day at 1093. The remainder of the week saw a second futures forced gap up Wednesday to a new high at 1105 that gave it up for a drop to 1085 closing the week at 1093. The favored pattern for this week has 1082 as solid support and 1110/1116 as target resistance no later than late Wednesday or intraday Thursday. From the 1110 areas a drop back to 1080 by options expiration Friday is favored.
L
Atilla says a multi-year top is near. I really hope so since I've got some large short positions
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