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propensity index which has a one day advance view, ran UP to 3010 from 2994 on the 25th
BUT that rise was not reflected by stock price increases
Now it has DROPPED back to 2996, and we await tomrrow's action
Its really amazing that when I put someones chart ont he blog, some people LOVE IT,
and OTHERS warn me not to do that, even tho I always give them credit for it
and on other blogs, some owners dont want me to mention this blog,
and yet others berated my for NOT mentioning this blog
I guess thats what makes the world tick.
258 bars and 21 hours are the SAME THING which hit at 2:30 nearly exact
and Ive been posting the bar cycles for a while now
the NEXT 21 hours, 258 bar cycle is on Monday Jan 4th at 10am
Will that be a LOW, or will it get truncated on Thursday at 4pm @ 252bars
which has occurred that way in the past.
the ECLIPSE is at 2:14pm Thursday along with 222 bars
note the NOV 2nd low occurred right at the FULL MOON @ 2:10pm
Jay
THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023
THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023
38 comments:
so we have an eclipse on thurs, full moon on thurs....propens low on thurs, and thurs is a short trading day....what a deal..
This Thurs is a full day.
MKT: Keep in mind that the real pivot if we intend to go higher short term is still dn at SPX 1100, really, no really !
27 minutes ago from web MKT: Next up leg turns are then: 1/3,1/4, 1/6,1/9 (late) Happy New Year; 8.6 month turn 1/5-6/2010 :-)
29 minutes ago from web MKT: SIMON Up leg turns are: 12/31,1/1,1/2; DOW could drop slighly into this series but it should be short lived
32 minutes ago from web @samamehta thx for asking; need to see 1/31 & about 1/10/10 before lookin much into Q1; DOW could bounce dn or go str to 10,800 ish
The Flash
Rally until Jan 10, most probably 1170+ on SPX
Bulloski has 1150 by Jan 1
http://thepatternsite.com/Blog.html
- S&P 500: Commercial hedgers are still stubbornly bearish in S&P 500 futures and options. However, as I noted Wednesday, my bearish signal for the S&P 500 got stopped out last week. At the same time, small traders, the usually wrong-way money who have been actually correct in their bullish positioning recently in this market, have started to get more antsy, as witnessed by their sharply reduced net long position this week. What can it mean? The setup remains officially bearish, despite me being stopped out, and it shows no signs of going bullish any time soon.
Alex
Reza:
What is Bulloski's record like? Do you find his calls useful? Is he consistently right about direction and/or target? In percentage terms how often is he right versus being wrong? Is his blog worth saving as a favorite?
thanks Reza
Charlie
Gap up sounds about right. Don't short til next year...they are going to close this year at high!
Charlie,
I follow chartsedge, I simply follow it as a bullish or bearish week. so far this week until Jan 10 call is bullish. Not a good idea to short
charlie,
Bulloski's call does not look at the economy, his call is where the market is headed. The gov is letting u know economy is being fixed, so do as you are supposed to do buy buy buy. I asked about SRS when it was 9.50, he said buy after 4 years when the cycle is over. And he mentioned about reverse split on SRS. After 3 weeks, I look at SRS, it is barely above 7. These guys are experienced and they have survived so many downturns. Dubai crisis time last month, Media is European countries buy the bargains.
1228 next fib after 1121.
FTSE already at Lehman collapse levels.
SPX has another 10% to go to reach same levels.
1228 will be reached in January , and IMO go on to 1300 in March.
Melt up to March ?
Wouldn't rule it out.
Asset bubble .
UK trader
If it did it wouldn't be a straight line. Traders here are trading smaller time frames than that.
What's your opinion on the next couple of days?
mortie
Geewhiz, I could say markets are going up into 2013, so just hold?
yeah right! not!
Look, Jay's blog has something for everybody but it's primarily a daytrading or swingtrading system.
So while I like and respect LONG TERM views, I trade a more shorter to intermediate timeframe regardless of Longer term perspectives.
Jon
Who's the anonymous Japanese poster posting his Japanese porn website link? Delete him Jay. Shows absolutely no class and is only direspecting your blogsite Jay.
Natalie
Ravi,
What's your take for today?
thx.
george
Has anyone started drinking yet in anticipation of New Years day?
x
Mortie,
Next few days IMO a run to 1150/1160.
Mid Jan - 1200-1250.
50% fib line broken after consolodation.
With all the liquidity and printing presses running , cannot see correction until 1300 or so.
Gap up was right and we are going much higher it appears until end of the year. No drop til mid January imo
s
End of DEc and early Jan are showing signs of a crack in the armor but just like DEc 14 to 17 we cannot seem to pinpoint the exact date of a tradable low.
Jan 2008 lost 600 pts in the first 6 days, not that we would see that in 2010, but it does happen
IT is possible that the low Shown on my Jan graph for the 6th/7th might end lower than Dec31st, but all that remains to be seen
Flash has some confusing data posted for the first week of Jan including 12/31 which we have both
pointed out as an important event;
AStro turns negative from Dec 29th to Jan7th with only the 4th at 2pm which has an historic aspect that usually occurs on rebounds.
Jay
I agree Jay.
I think corrections come late in cycles, they're violent when they occurr, they move and gap-down overnight as usual and when they move, it's half over or more before you can even short. So you really have to be nimble and establish positions as close to the top as possible and as late in a particular as possible. The longer term cycles like the 40 day and bigger cycles give you better shorting opportunuties.
sam
Beware of overly Bullish sentiment! Never trade off of this "liquidity abounds" and "government is printing" nonsense. Since when do day and swing traders use that nonsense to trade off of.
Jim
I'm starting to NUY shorts now . Screw the bear-scare tactics. They're just cramer&Kudlows disguised as anons trying to keep you from making money.
xx
SHORT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
x
"bear-scare tactics"
Ilike that
sam
Why are we going down? The housing news was positive! Hopefully we'll rebound this afternoon and head back to 1030
c
c
What does news have to do with anything??
We're going down because of technicals not news.
If you want news turn on CNBC or cnBS as some call it now.
jon
Thanks for the astro comment Jay. ChartsEdge and Helge seem to show today as a down day. I'm just wondering how much upside is left until Jan considering that Helge seems to have us in a down cycle until April 2010:
http://www.cyclelt.com/PT.htm
This also fits the EW idea that we are missing a 50% B wave correction in the zigzag ABC since March.
Also, Olga's curves shows January as primarily down. Jim Curry also has a larger 40 day cycle topping by late Dec to early Jan in the 1130 - 1150 area, to be followed by a decent correction before we move up again into Feb. And Flash seems to suggest that we need to hit 1100 before the SPX can move up. Any thoughts on the bigger picture? Thanks!
indigo,
where can I access Olga's curves?
thx
mary
indigo,
When did Jim Curry start his 40 day cycle?
thx
mary
rrman,
what's up bro? Are you still short?
Love to here from you.
mmc
Mary, you can buy Olga's January almanac at http://www.astrologyforganntraders.com.au
She used to post her weekly charts for free, and she had some pretty spot on calls. This week is shown as up, but she shows a top around 4 or 5 Jan.
Made a mistake with Curry's cycles: it's actually a 90 day and 180 day cycle that tops in early Jan:
http://cyclewave.homestead.com/120209.html
However, Anna at hotoptionbabe.com has just shown a 40 day cycle chart due in the next 4 - 5 days, so if we keep floating up till then, it could be a top rather than a bottom.
jay,
I see you have a profile in marketguru, do you take it serious, I mean you have had TZA for a long time. And here you say you will short go long etc.
Anyway good blog.
Long fas!!!!!!
s
S,
Why long fas, try DRN
Thx Indigo for the info.
Mary
1039.34 pretty much looks like the beginning of A of the 3rd ziz-zag.
Two alternatives for where the B ended and C started. This results in four targets for the top, the lowest of which is 1131.81, which is close to 1132.50 target for the five wave move from yesterday's low - the latter arrived by treating middle of third wave as half way mark.
ALT ONE
A 1039.38 1113.69 74.31
B 1113.69 1085.89 -27.8 37.4%
C 1085.89 1131.81 45.92 0.618 of A
C? 1085.89 1160.20 74.31 1 of A
ALT TWO
A 1039.38 1113.69 74.31
B 1113.69 1093.88 -19.81 26.7%
C 1093.88 1139.80 45.92 0.618 of A
C? 1093.88 1168.19 74.31 1 of A
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