IT APPEARS that there was NO WAY ANYONE WAS GOING TO KEEP THE SPX FROM GETTING to 1150
WOW, that will TEACH ME NOT TO STRAY- what do I mean? you ask --I USED a DIFFERENT DATA stream, and look what it got me!!
the graph below instead of the one above.
PLEASE keep in mind that Im still learning how to use this new found tool
and will mess it up on occasion, but Im not hiding or making excuses IT DOES HAPPEN
3/11/2010 - published at 8:35am - TODAY'S EKGNOT MUCH MORE TO GO
Will publish EKG in the AM when there is a more complete graph to show- see above
The power index seems to be showing the ENERGY is about to shift into DOWN gear
there has always been a consistent 36 to 39 day cycle low to low
From FEb 5th that gets us to April 1st in 36 trade days
2/3rds of that cycle or 24 days = Feb 15th
but there is some evidence that the 16th could be quite volatile if the 15th closes up.
the new moon on the 15th at 4pm will catch us DREAMING
but 4pm is a long way from 9:30am
before we rush to judgment about the 15-16th
Lets see what we get on the 12th.
so far the 11th is indicating a lower close, but will have a better look tomrrow AM
More Later
Jay
MORE NOW 7pm
PC ratios bearish -for 2nd day
JAYWIZ index BEARISH , for 2nd day
Today's arms index & Internal Tech data reinforces yesterday's sell signal
3/11/2010 -8:35am - See new EKG above
39 comments:
Thanks Jay
Thanks Jay... right now futures are all down across the board about .35%. I went home tonight in April QQQQ 45 puts! POOTS!
out of long went short /6e 1.3654
Jay,
What is your downside target for
this sell signal?? Thanks
Not sure about Jay, but my first target is around 1080 or so
Sirg,
What time frame? Thanks
I would say monday. The maximum option pain for march is 105 SPY. So I would say we first go to 108 - then 110-111 and finally 105 next friday. That's my gameplan.
Sirgian,
I think they will try to hold it around this area until 15. Sen. Dodd financial regulation plan
Sirg,
My experience with max option pain
is not too good. I wouldn't rely on it too much. The most open
interest on the SPX is huge at 1100
Which plan? Do you know when it would be announced?
Janeva.
Does it mean that next friday 1100 is more likely in your opinion?
1080 by monday sirgiyan?????
It was supposed to be released today but postponed to Mon
then monday is good for 1080. Anyway it's my plan. If Janeva's take on open interest VS max pain is correct - then we simply would grind higher towards friday - to match 1100. IMHO
Sirg,
Yes I think 1100 is MAX downside
from now till next Friday. IF we get near 1100 I will sell my puts
pronto.
Cool, if we simply go down until friday towards 1100 - I would sell my puts also. BUT my view is that we might see 1080 first.
Sirg,
I hope you are right. Good luck
to both of us, but this market
just won't crack.
If you would look at relative performance of IWM, EEM and SPY today - you would notice that IWM and EEM are UNDERPERFORMING SPY for the first day this week, The early warning was sent yesterday by silver. So I feel we are on the right track shorting this thing
Maybe we just cracked?? If we can
break 114.35 I think we're off to
1130 first stop.
One more confirmation - look at TLT. UUP would be the final nail in this coffin
Sirg,
Let us know when that final nail is hit. Thanks. Im waiting for a break and hopefully a close below 114.35. That would be my nail.
rrman is right, too much manipulation during regular hours.
Nice moves A/H
As much as I want to short about 30 minutes before the close the Index P/C ratios are very bullish for tomorrow's open implying someone knows Retail Sales and/or Mich Sentiment will be market friendly.
Darn it!!!
Kc135a,
http://cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx
Bullish? I see the opposite.
I use only the Index P/C ratio which is a big kids hedge against positions so you read it backwards.
I have been tracking the Index P/C by the 1/2 hour for over a year and you will always be ahead following it for the intra day and next days open.
Always disregard the first hours readings since they often get reversed 1 hour after the open.
FWIW the SPY has made a new intra-day high and I was not expecting that going into the day.
Still no new shorts - but I really wanna wanna wanna!
all the years ive been following market activity,this is the worst case of manipulation ive ever witnessed.no joke this is one trumped up bullshit make beleive market.its like watching a film about chart watching..press play and sit back. even similar markets like 2006,at least you knew in the overall price structure we were in the last phase of a super cycle bull market,this just stinks..somebody and i dont know who it is, is supporting this market at all cost.it will break quite badly but where the hell from?
Jay and others,
Any changes to the outlook
Thanks
So much for Jay's SELL signal.
Jay has a great system but like all systems you have to give it some slack.
FWIW I have never seen as many forecast by good and experienced people blow up like I have since October of last year to the current period. Read into that what you want.
rrman,
Any thoughts
we will drop down ah to this mornings low or lower (bottom of the channel )on the euro then rally tomorrow i'm still short /6e should get the low around 2-4 am then will go long into monday....afterhours sunday will be big up not sure about monday looks fairly flat to me after big gap up
JANEVA
A SELL SIGNAL of the internals
CAN BE DELAYED UP TO 10DAYS
Are you familiar with the ARMS & TRIN indexes??
on FEB 25th
ARMS 5 = 139, a BUY
TRIN 5 = 697, a buy
trin 10 = 1147
On March 10th & 11th
arms 5= 81.4 & 75.4
Trin 5 = 407 & 377
trin 10 = 933 & 916
THESE ARE NOT MY SELL SIGNALS
they are generated from the MARKET's INTERNAL Data such as ADV/ declines & VOLUME
I have kept track of this data for 7 years and it is very telling
but the reaction doesnt have to be IMMEDIATE
and you ALL KNOW THAT
WHEN THIS BABY GOES,
we WILL KNOW IT
POWER INDEX DOES DROP OFF TOMRROW for the FIRST TIME ALL WEEK
There are 15 days till APRIl 1st and the the COMPRESSION thats building up will be exacerbated.
when it starts to cascade, NOTHING WILL STOP IT till APRIL 1st.
Jay
I think the Spring Equinox is the 20th the downside starts after new moon on 15th at 2100 hrs then may intensify after the 20th...if I would listen to Carolyn on his buy the full sell the new moon theory i would have done good this month...
Jay,
JPM had a target of $690 for RUT for 2010. We are at 680 now, seems whatever it is I think the investment on TZA looks safe.
rrman,
U mean close shorts today A/H. Then long A/H for Mon
rrman,
I will remind you on the moon next time. So no one forgets here and everyone is long/short and everyone's investment is safe.
yeah short until the dip later in ah then long until opem monday
here is his last chart not updated for feb/march
http://carolan.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/020110clock.gif
rrman,
Tomorrow's open is it down or up.
Jay's chart is showing down for tomorrow.
Reza I think we gap down
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