Waiting till 1168-70 before taking any position. All cash now. Congrats to people who were long in to this gap up - remember to take some profits as markets have been quick to reverse directions....
Reza, The fact that markets gapped up above 1150 and have almost retraced the entire thursday's down bar is a HUGE positive - obviously close is very important, but the bailout package is MASSIVE and I expect a TREND UP DAY and close in 1170's. Essentially we are at April 2009 once again when fed money printing rescued the market. Expecting 1180 cash SPX to be the battle ground. Planning to test shorts above 1175 with stop at 1185.
I know many smart people expect this month down, including Jay's work - but when money is thrown from the sky, trade the reaction, not some bias or some rigid method...
Jay I notice that we dont count the weekend's energy. If we can factor that it will make more sense because shifting energy patterns can cause forecasts to miss by few hours or a few days. It seems Wednesday and Thursday may remain negative or neutral and Fri another hyper active day. But I am very confused for 18th Tuesday. What do you see on that day around? So far in my projection I see 18/28 May period down.
About the Euro package this is still not final for there could be some political issue or the other. We are still in a period when any agreements can falter.
I think this week is a sequel to last one. Next week may continue to follow with the real correction? What do you think?
they left several gaps on the way to the 2007 highs,some took years to fill.i do think fridays gap will fill soon enough though.just something to bear in mind.
I mean Jay's monthly chart is correct. We have been trading what we wanted to believe. So now the new deal. Based on Jay's chart and PE multiples, short is the only option. Only long for a scalp now and then. Once it hit 970-1000 it is safe to be long.
One should respect the strength in the markets today rather than let bias come in to trading - pulling up a 1yr daily chart, ALL markets formed higher swing lows last week. Odds favor higher highs. Today's rally was being shorted and puts were being bought by retail, which means NO ONE believes this rally. Even the longs are sitting on the sidelines as the memory of Thursday's crash is still in memory. So lot of fuel for the rally to continue - while I agree a low volume retest of the lows may be ideal by end of May, this market has been driven by capital injections by central bank and we had yet another injection. So I wouldnt hold my hat out for retest, but would be on the lookout. I think both you and Jay expect this week to be up - is there any evidence you see in the markets (please dont give me Elliott wave. please - thats a classic sucker's method) that we cannot rally above 1200? if so, please tell me. I am all ears.
so far the EKG shows a SELL FROM the GO tomrrow. they dont want anyone to benefit if possible from either direction
its consistent with the power index IF we advance ONE DAY. that may be the reason why I was having a hard time with it in March & April-- needed to BACK OFF ONE DAY It seems rather OBVIOUS NOW
Jay Astral wkend energy ala power index had no effect, other than to confirm the low on the 7th
Also May 7th was 48x8 tr days from oct27th, 2008, a convergence of 8 day cycle & the 13day
Jay, I have one scenario which indicates something similar - reversal at 1185, maybe tomorrow and retest of that level next week (around 19th, as you mentioned). I am going to test shorts around 1185 as mentioned earlier today. Thanks for providing your projection.
When you say ... "The 7 DAY POWER INDEX reverses lower right after the THRUST wave which should be tomrrow into the 13th new moon day" I get confused as to whether that is bearish or bullish.
The problem is you are so close to your work it is obvious to you but not so much for others. Sort of like a programmer who knows the program inside and out and can't seem to understand more casual users of the program need some more spoon feeding since they are doing other things besides that one program.
I believe you saying what I am thinking. Basically, down into the 13th (the new moon) up into about the 20th to what I believe will be a lower high, and then a multi-month reversal down all of the way into September/October of this year which I believe will set up the last leg up into the 1st Qtr of 2011 before the last major leg down into the 2014 +-2 40 year cycle low.
Dear Jay Thanks for your clearing. Long ago some months ago I had writtten May First week as a key reversal point in an earlier analysis, but I found it today. In any case in my manual calculations the hard way the key days. My next key reversal is June's 4th week.
Dear Joe
Thank you for your kind comments. My work is based on a few systems I have been developing and I dont work with Waves. I had 11 and 14th as positive days and 12th as neutral or negative and 13th as negative. However my 11th great positive date data was quite right but somehow it preceded one day before which is very possible as Jay apparently had also projected. I notice that the timing chnages happen because we are in a 19 hour Asia/Europe and US markets. Now on to make any positions I will count one or two days in advance of key dates. Those who went long Friday afternoon made really big time. I am slightly confused for now for this week but overall it may remain somewhat positive. I think best time to short could be next Tuesday and meanwhile it will be better to day trade for next 3 days. Sorry for the late comments I had not been able to check earlier.
IMF Bail out
25 comments:
3 of 3 of 3 of 5 down starts today. All this is part of wave 4 triangle - everything from the New testament. New lows follow soon.
Waiting till 1168-70 before taking any position. All cash now. Congrats to people who were long in to this gap up - remember to take some profits as markets have been quick to reverse directions....
Good luck!
Joe
Keep us posted. Jay's monthly chart did indicate the spike up
i would love the 78.6 retrace for re-shorting,im not even going to consider selling until today is out of the way though.
Reza,
The fact that markets gapped up above 1150 and have almost retraced the entire thursday's down bar is a HUGE positive - obviously close is very important, but the bailout package is MASSIVE and I expect a TREND UP DAY and close in 1170's. Essentially we are at April 2009 once again when fed money printing rescued the market. Expecting 1180 cash SPX to be the battle ground. Planning to test shorts above 1175 with stop at 1185.
I know many smart people expect this month down, including Jay's work - but when money is thrown from the sky, trade the reaction, not some bias or some rigid method...
long here at 53.9. 4pt stop.i just cant help myself lol
I'm playing the waiting game.
watching the VXX for entry.
taking profit here at 1160
Jay I notice that we dont count the weekend's energy. If we can factor that it will make more sense because shifting energy patterns can cause forecasts to miss by few hours or a few days.
It seems Wednesday and Thursday may remain negative or neutral and Fri another hyper active day.
But I am very confused for 18th Tuesday. What do you see on that day around? So far in my projection I see 18/28 May period down.
Dear Joe and Reza
About the Euro package this is still not final for there could be some political issue or the other. We are still in a period when any agreements can falter.
I think this week is a sequel to last one. Next week may continue to follow with the real correction? What do you think?
Normally, they dont leave a gap in /ES. So whatever they will fill it. Jay's monthly does show a gap, which gets filled the next day.
they left several gaps on the way to the 2007 highs,some took years to fill.i do think fridays gap will fill soon enough though.just something to bear in mind.
Will enter long at Dow 9200, SPX 970. Short as of now. Jay's chart is correct.
I mean Jay's monthly chart is correct. We have been trading what we wanted to believe. So now the new deal. Based on Jay's chart and PE multiples, short is the only option. Only long for a scalp now and then. Once it hit 970-1000 it is safe to be long.
Safe to be long from 1000 to 1150 area
Currently anything above 1150 is safe to be short
Jay
Any updates for the rest of week
astralguide,
I am all cash now.
One should respect the strength in the markets today rather than let bias come in to trading - pulling up a 1yr daily chart, ALL markets formed higher swing lows last week. Odds favor higher highs. Today's rally was being shorted and puts were being bought by retail, which means NO ONE believes this rally. Even the longs are sitting on the sidelines as the memory of Thursday's crash is still in memory. So lot of fuel for the rally to continue - while I agree a low volume retest of the lows may be ideal by end of May, this market has been driven by capital injections by central bank and we had yet another injection. So I wouldnt hold my hat out for retest, but would be on the lookout. I think both you and Jay expect this week to be up - is there any evidence you see in the markets (please dont give me Elliott wave. please - thats a classic sucker's method) that we cannot rally above 1200? if so, please tell me. I am all ears.
The 7 DAY POWER INDEX
reverses lower right after the THRUST wave which should be tomrrow
into the 13th new moon day
That damn thrust came one day sooner
just as MAY 3rd BEAR mkt Monday
We must become vigilant NOW of such Mondays until AUGUST 10th-
a very important low for 2010
Astral
the 18th and 19th are endowed with triple TRINES- thus the power house up
BUT
I think we should see a "B"wave lower NOW to about 1100 before making another run on 1200 by the 19th = "C" wave high
Jay
so far the EKG shows a SELL FROM the GO tomrrow.
they dont want anyone to benefit if possible from either direction
its consistent with the power index IF we advance ONE DAY.
that may be the reason why I was having a hard time with it in March & April-- needed to BACK OFF ONE DAY
It seems rather OBVIOUS NOW
Jay
Astral
wkend energy ala power index had no effect, other than to confirm the low on the 7th
Also
May 7th was 48x8 tr days from oct27th, 2008, a convergence of 8 day cycle & the 13day
JOE, I see the same as previously noted
Jay
4th wave in progress with "B" ahead on 13th, and "C" on 19th.
Jay,
I have one scenario which indicates something similar - reversal at 1185, maybe tomorrow and retest of that level next week (around 19th, as you mentioned). I am going to test shorts around 1185 as mentioned earlier today. Thanks for providing your projection.
Hi Jay
When you say ... "The 7 DAY POWER INDEX
reverses lower right after the THRUST wave which should be tomrrow into the 13th new moon day" I get confused as to whether that is bearish or bullish.
The problem is you are so close to your work it is obvious to you but not so much for others. Sort of like a programmer who knows the program inside and out and can't seem to understand more casual users of the program need some more spoon feeding since they are doing other things besides that one program.
I believe you saying what I am thinking. Basically, down into the 13th (the new moon) up into about the 20th to what I believe will be a lower high, and then a multi-month reversal down all of the way into September/October of this year which I believe will set up the last leg up into the 1st Qtr of 2011 before the last major leg down into the 2014 +-2 40 year cycle low.
Are we in sync?
Dear Jay
Thanks for your clearing. Long ago some months ago I had writtten May First week as a key reversal point in an earlier analysis, but I found it today. In any case in my manual calculations the hard way the key days. My next key reversal is June's 4th week.
Dear Joe
Thank you for your kind comments. My work is based on a few systems I have been developing and I dont work with Waves. I had 11 and 14th as positive days and 12th as neutral or negative and 13th as negative.
However my 11th great positive date data was quite right but somehow it preceded one day before which is very possible as Jay apparently had also projected. I notice that the timing chnages happen because we are in a 19 hour Asia/Europe and US markets. Now on to make any positions I will count one or two days in advance of key dates. Those who went long Friday afternoon made really big time.
I am slightly confused for now for this week but overall it may remain somewhat positive. I think best time to short could be next Tuesday and meanwhile it will be better to day trade for next 3 days.
Sorry for the late comments I had not been able to check earlier.
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