History lesson

PART of RRMAN's history lessson

The full moon occurs on September 23rd and Tishrei 25-28 will take place between October 3rd and October 6th. Thus, we are now about to enter the time of year most vulnerable to mass hysterias.

While historically autumnal panics have taken the form of financial crises, one might note above that the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis andOctober 1973 Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War, the two points in history when the world came closest to an all-out East-West nuclear war as measured by NORAD's DEFCON nuclear alert level, occurred in the context of the typical seasonal pattern for mass panics. In 1962 the highest DEFCON status was reached on October 26th, or Tishrei 28. In 1973, the highest DEFCON nuclear alert was reached on October 24th, or Tishrei 28 as well in that year. (Tishrei 28 is October 6th this year.)

Some might not see the connection between financial crises and geopolitical crises, but it is clear that one exists. Consider, for instance, how reversals from psychologically important thousand marks in the DJIA have correlated with geopolitical "shocks".

One of the most clear-cut examples of this occurred with the October 1973 Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli War when, upon retesting the "Magic 1000" mark, the DJIA turned down in connection with the outbreak of war in the Middle East. What followed was an OPEC oil embargo against the West and a severe contraction in the global economy precipitating a 40%+ decline in stock prices in the ensuing months:

more later
Jay