NOT quite as good as yesterday, but still showed the trend for the dayJay
Yesterday's EKG was as good a gold.will today be a repeat performance?
Today we have a convergence at 11am of the bar cycles{ 21hrs} & 13 day pivots
as shown above
It should lead to an afternoon rebound till 3:30pm
as shown above
Power data indicates a good start but retreating the rest of the day which is somewhat contrary to the EKG but not entirely
CNBC commentator telling the public that stocks are CHEAP, of course in relative terms, but we ALL know the stock market stretches evaluations in both directions.
Just as they got over bot for many months in 2007, they can get oversold for many months
also, and look cheap. Where was his recommendations on March 9th, 2009 ??
Anyway.
IMO there were many holes in his argument, but he is obviously attempting to attract buyers.
Its the OLD argument that IF you buy and hold for a long enuf time, your values will increase.
BUT then again, stock market has not made sufficient gains since year 2000
10 years of apathy.
SO<>
Watch what happens in the politico arena IF we get a substantial decline in the next 10days
They, whoever they is, will be screaming- MR PRESIDENT !!- DO MORE TO HELP
what are you waiting for? another crash ??
more later
Jay
19 comments:
that EKG makes sense really. we start with the end of wave a. then up for b, and then a c wave to complete this correction.
yours,
cementzak
ooops, looks like the a wave already finished yesterday.
cementzak
5 -3 -5 from Monday's close
what was it?
wave A ?
now in wave B
3 waves a,b,c
next wave C
5-3-5
Just a correction in a continuing trend to Jan 24th with only a minor pause
OR do we really have a hole in the bucket this week
Remember I mentioned the days surrounding 22nd were heavy
that means tomrrow & Friday or nothing
Jay
the best case for the bears is a nasty c wave to around the 1130 level
but it should turn here around 1177/1178, if not expect a new high
cementzak
how painful it is to see the market going up.
What a strange morning. Well, let me rephraze that... what a manipulated morning.
Over the past few days the Fed did over 10 Billion in POMO operations. Then this morning they went straight to the TIPS market. In a nutshell, after the opening rush higher, the market started fading and then as usual "boom" it was rescued.
a 90% retracement for wave B wouldn't be abnormal i guess. pretty much there now, and rising wedges across the board
cementzak
My SHORTS are underwater ... either I need to add and AVG down or HOLD on??? Darn I hate to be in this position.
fully short at 2469 (COMPQ)
cementzak
HI C
good to see your comments
always clarity
Yes got just above 78% retrace
wave 2 or B
probably 2
But 5-3-5 down to 1160 is nuttin
STill on target for decline from 19th to 28th
got to bear thru this brief rally
Abdullah
IM right there with you
WAITING BEIGE book for whatever good that might do @ 1:45
Jay
WED = High Point
activity index rose to 300 this AM, and has backed off to 133 at present
at 2pm
All thats left is positive energy
at 3;30
beige book shows econ growth everywhere but housing mkt
How much more QE2 will be expected now
Jay
BAC almost positive even under pressure of 400 million selling.
On Monday they pushed the market higher, closing us out at about 11,143.
ON Tuesday we ended the day down 165 points, with most of the materials guys, and gold/silver/oil/copper etc down sharply.
On Wednesday program after program fired off and we were up 130 to 11108.
I have a mixed emotions on either to lean LONG and start buying or WAIT. I think I am done with my SHORT positions for now.
WAIT is all i can do for now ...
I am beginning to develop a deep hatred for the Fed / Banks / and Obama.
Abdullah - I can imagine your state ....
Here were jay's reading for the week ...and my comments in hindsight
Monday 18th - not sure what this meant ...unless it was a warning for tues...
DONT RISK $$
Tues 19th - Huge down
Disruptions
Wed 20th - Huge up
expect some success
Thsday 21st
PROBLEMS & Struggles
expect a difficult day
Friday 22nd
UNSTEADY
return to common sense mid afternoon
Based on this and the power graph and reading - it seems that the time to cover shorts is sometime tomm or friday morning ...
From a wave perspective if yest was a, today was b, then tomm/friday should be a nasty c down ...
Jay - what are you seeing for next week ... i know you expected a major pivot on oct 21 /22 ...
Thanks AS
good reminder
Im waiting for 8:30am, not that it should be a game changer, and 26 hrs today is at 10am
13hrs opened down 150 dow on Tuesday
so today might open at a high
According to one of my sources
Oct 28th is more of a pivot low
and might be the IMPORTANT one
they are HOLDING up on THIN ICE
and it could give way any moment
Monday, 25th has 39 hrs at 10am and after a strong open, GOOD SHORT opp - mkt should cascade to a low at 11am on the 28th
I know it sounds like the I'm yelling WOLFE once too often, but
WE KNOW as long term traders
there has to be a sell off before the next rally in NOV
One week at a time is sometimes insufficient data, but I cant get too far ahead
MY 6 month graph SHOWS a LOW on the 27th
Jay
Abdullah
Think about what your FEELING
bulls feel most AWFUL when the mkt makes an extreme low
bears FEEL most AWFUL when the mkt makes its extreme high
and both occur right at the MOST IMPORTANT pivots -@ tops as well as bottoms
FUTURES pointing at ONE MORE high at 10am, or sooner this AM
Jay
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