NO LATE SELL OFF, and NONE appears for tomorrow's open eitherBUT the POWER data graph does indicate selling late today and or early tomrrow
Jay
Expect the same deal for tomrrow's open- Thsdaybut the ekg is not available till tomrrow an for confirmation
however, the Power data graph shows this rally is not lasting
activity index is at its Lowest value indicating no lasting energy to maintain rally highs
it does NOT mean however, that sellers will flood the mkt today-
BUT it simply means that buyers will run out of gas early .
we'll see if 13 hours hits at 10am, and or 1pm today, or both, as the half day last Friday messes up the cycle, or not.
Bradley date Dec 2nd should put the high of the month in place as the 144 tr day cycle yesterday off May7th expired making a short term low
THEN
the NEXT big Cluster is due on Dec 21st as previously noted
55-110-165-220 cluster convergence - should be a low
Jay
14 comments:
As expected WED tend to be a 'reversal' of what happens MON/TUE. For the balance of the day we'll wiggle between say +180 - 200.
JUSt as the EKG showed a RALLY at close yesterday it rolled over to this AM
It looks like the late drop off today will roll over to tomrrrows open as the EKG will show, but also expect a recovery from the lower open
Energy high tomrrow at 2:39pm
Jay
Jay - The DEC EKG showed 12/1-2 as LOW compared with 11/30. Does the EKG does not show price movement then?
EKG is NOT published till 8:30am
and does not reflect lows or highs, but mrkt direction for the day
Even if it shows WIDE SWINGS, the mkt may not provide such actiona nd could be very muted intraday changes
Are you referring to the POWER GRAPH
It did NOT show Dec 1st as we got it, but it does show it as DEc 2nd, which may not produce EXACTLY as shown
These are ONLY Guides, NOT absolutes
Using the tr day cycle we did get the 144 tr day low off May7th
We got the Rally run up today, and tomrrow should open with at least a 100 pt dow sell off, but recovery is still
We have to USE all the resources
to identify what is more likley to happen
That is WHY I invited DISCUSSION
so we can hammer out our thinking against what is occurring
I had mentioned DEC 1 & 2 for rallies to short from as Decc 3rd to7th should sell off
to the 1170at least, if not 1155 ideal
Thanks
Jay
In my humble opinion todays was an expected rally day. after 6pm yesterday once the word was out the bond funds didnt match equity funds, the move was on.
Many people dont realise this but its all about where the money is going.
For the month of December its going to equities and regardless of what charts say this is move for the month.
Now yes there will be shocks along the way with europe all over the place, but the general move will be higher.
Todays close was right under the level of which the strongest of bear will call it quits, so there still a heart beat for the bears.
What you need to look at is with all the selling and bad news that was out there the market couldnt break down.
I agree with your assessment of friday and monday as a correction but after that we are off to the races.
Now from what point will depend on how short the market is.
Jay your 1170 level wont be in the next couple of days either you might have to wait either last 10 days of the month or next contract(March).
Everything I'm looking at for the next 10 days is pointing to
1250 if not 1280+.
In the event that we get some positive numbers next week we will be there in a flash.
The last 10 days anything can happen as every manager want to protect his performance as bonus time is on the cards.
NO manager would risk loosing his performance at the last 10 days and so you could either get a stall or a drop.
For the chartist keep on charting for the fundementalists read whats taking place, and for the traders play whats happening in the game.
Dont play the hope game.
A lot of money has come back to the US from overseas guys and that should be respected as its going into equities, not bonds or commodities.
Educational post I hope.
Cheers
future trader - whats your take on commodities (gold, silver)? I hear that gold will touch ~950 and silver around ~18 before end of this month. what are your thoughts?
what happened today was for the FED/Banks to ball up about 5 days worth of POMO money and cut it loose all at the same time. We were up 150 just seconds after the open, and by mid afternoon we were sporting 260 new points. That's a tremendous amount of movement in one day, and I have to admit it caught me a bit off guard.
That's why the market went up huge today. Not China. Not Trichet. Not anything to do with any economic reality we face. It went up because Wally Street banks were flush with POMO money and they let it fly.
I Jay
First time posting here.
I saw video I thought you'd love.
The stars in the universe are immensely powerful. There seems to be alot more to astronomy than meets the eye!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0_nuvPKIi8&feature=player_embedded
"Everything I'm looking at for the next 10 days is pointing to 1250 if not 1280+."
futuretrader - I could easily see 1225 on the S&P and 11,550 on the DOW. BOTH WILL BE THE HIGH.
I agree that it could happen in the next 2 weeks. Last week of DEC could be the end of this madness and BEARS will rule for a long time (if anyone else had survived).
Trin at a ridiculously low level (0.33!) combined with rising VIX spell rally trouble. Watch for a gap down on tomorrow's open.
Hi Abdullah
I'm not a commodity fan I must say but do trade what I see.
Long term for me is 3-5 days.
Both gold and silver are running up on speculative money.There is plenty of gold around to meet demand regardless of what commentators say.
Silver on the other hand there is a serious shortage occurring with all stockpile sold.
I'm talking about stockpile which had been held from the early 90's.
So is there a shortage of silver yes on it way. Gold there is tonnes of the stuff.
Grains mother nature dictates and so grain yes can go higher.
As for the market the 1225 level is just a magnet to a pending move,It depends how low we go to be more sure of a level but for what its worth money wants to push higher this market regardless of what we think.
Next year gold down yes I am no admirer of gold, and dont believe in the hedge crap the media pumps out to the world.
With the vix you can distort its reading by buying certain stock, so be aware of it.
Yes as a grizzly bear that I am I have to respect the conditions at the present time and hybernate until its time to party again.
Cheers
Abdullah
Monday's OEX ratio = 3.12 BULLISH
Tuesday = .21
WEd = .33
Arms index = .26
Other than Monday, which was a precursor for the rally, we are looking at bearish ratios
One more higher high today till about 2:40pm, then the selling should resume
92 % Up volume
80% bearish PC ratios
Tomrrow AM energy should take the steam out of this rally
Jay
WELCOME
HouseofSun
Thanks for joining in and your comments
Jay
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