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Difficult & Demanding day
258bars at 3;30pm
Jay
Noon update
ITS VERY EASY TO FORGET that SEVERAL Times I wrote that NOTHING would happen until FEB 17th, but that actual was Feb 18th due to the full moon,
And Ive also mentioned a pivot low on the 24th for this thsday.
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The MOST important date this year will be MARCH 18th, the next full moon is the 19th. The Psych for that moon indicates feelings of vulnerability & worry. Its also a Bradley date
Jay
2;30pm update--
Now that we are having the biggest sell off since last August - can we say that there has been a real CHANGE ? of not
Using 40 spx pts as a rule of thumb which weve discussed many times, my calls for 1300 spx was partly based on the rule. 1343 -40 - 1303
BUT If we break 1300 either today or tomrrow, then we might see another 40 pts to 1263 by Late Thsday or Friday am.
I love the way CNBC calls this sell off a reaction to Libya and the Mideast- I guess they have to tell the people what they want to hear- BUT the mkt could have sold off anytime in the last 3 weeks, BUT IT DIDN'T - its selling off now as previously projected, and as shown by the published energy guide.
Jay
21 comments:
Wall Street is a controlled, manipulated monster. We know that. This is why, for months now it has risen despite lousy economic numbers, despite state shut downs, despite insane budgets, despite Egypt falling, despite it "spreading" to other Countries. When they want it "up" it goes up, and no amount of bad news will stop it. Then.... one day they decide it's time to shear the sheep. Take some "profits". Yank the rug.
So, over the weekend the Mid East continued to melt down. Militaries shooting and killing civilians in the streets. Threats of cutting off oil supplies. All manner of madness. So where are the futures this am? They're down substantially. This am, I saw the DOW futures off 109. Now as I type this they're down 85. Are they going to bring it back? We don't know.
So, if today they use the Mid East as a reason to sell us off a couple hundred points, One has to ask the question.. Why?? Was not the Mid east a horrid tinder box last week? It was. Was not oil going crazy last week? It was. Was not it clear that what happened in Egypt was indeed beginning to happen in other Countries? It was. Yet for two weeks they ignored it. If we sell off today on "mid east" instability, I ask the question.. why now? Why not last Tuesday? Because last Tuesday they didn't want it to fall yet. Simple.
I do not know if today is the beginning of a pullback or not. We won't know what the criminals are up to until much later in the day.
But interestingly we don't even know how far that will take us. Bernanke's banker buddies are the only one's that know if they want to rug pull us or not.
Abdullah follow the money trail, buy order of 1b last Fri. Dip the market to buy and thats what they did. 1357 based on 1b
current pos - gold.
post as much info among us in the site.
HI Abdullah
thanks for your comments
WE all appreciate your insights
Mid East has been brewing for weeks now, and it only SEEMED TO have a one day effect on Jan 28th, but other energies were working that day.
Now we see the MEDIA trying to blame a selloff to the mid east and Oil, but those are only minor and temporary things that PEOPLE like to talk about
the REAL energy has been VERY BENEVOLENT and will continue to play out in a bullish manner until that EXHAUSTION point which is DUE on MARCH 18th
Then and only then will CASEY lower the boom, and REALITY will over take ILLUSION.
Jay
I can't get a feel for what happens now. I really can't. the animal spirits indicate they want to just "buy the dip" again, but.. it would have been easy for them to get us green already and we are indeed still red, quite a bit red on the S&P.
SPY below 130!!! NOT A GOOD SIGN. POTENTIAL DROP UP TO 8%.
p.s. Jay - I agree.
S&P 1308 next strong resistance. If it breaks then back to 666.
Abdullah
Last time we had a sell off to 1264 area, there was a buy order of 2b. market went from 1300 area to 1260 area, big boys buying, then we went to 1340 from there.
They are fooling us again to become bearish again.
Also, FAZ, TZA, etc they are targeting $40 area
FP 134.46 printed again,
$ not moving
Reza - FAZ is doing a R/S 1 : 5
You are saying after the R/S FAZ will continue down?
looks like it
volume only 155 million, does not show any institutions selling
Reza
dont the funds & Pro's usually wait for the last hour to sell or buy accordingly
jay
Mid day becomes wait and see
Abdullah
I dont think we will see 666 again
1576-666=900 lost pts = 57%
1343-666 = 677 gained back = 75%
potential
May 2012 - June 2012
1343 X 55 % = spx 738
Jay
although the volume on the down side has been heavy. It "feels " like we're going to sink for a few days, but of course time will tell.
It's not my place to be brave in here.. some are buying this dip and I hope it works for them.. I will sit on the sidelines and watch for a while.
Jay
I have noticed that whenever there is a buy order of 1b or more, the market tanks for them to buy the dip. It makes sense that the actual downtrend does not start until Mar 18 as u mentioned.
Abdullah
Closing price looks like down gain. Looks like target is 40 after splits on those
One dynamic I have been following is the chorus of republicans who are increasingly accusing Bernanke of monetizing the debt under QE2, thereby worsening the debt crisis. As the PPI and CPI continue to rise, watch for the potential for the program to be "modified" or curtailed. This will be the blow that whacks the market. Maybe that is the event that accompanies Jay's mid March call
Jay - 666 in the SPY could take no more than two years to reach. One factor I watch is the commodity index. Its trading very close to 30. If commodity continues to rise stocks will fall further. The only thing that MAY slow down the wreck is Benji easing QE's - you would have a fast CRASH for few days and then climb steady in UP trend. More to come ...
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