THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Last Day- First Day
Elliott waves are so mixed up, its very hard to get a good reading
Astro still predicts some selling today and a rally First day of 2010
but the rally on Monday comes with a warning
BEWARE PIE IN THE SKY thinking
and thats just what MANY are thinking for 2010- pie in the sky -
Call it extreme exuberance [hmmm]
Historically Jan 6/7 and 22nd are important dates from the last few years,
and it does look like they will be important this year also
AFTER Jan 22nd we could actually get that elongated decline into APRIL6th
please dont ask how low is low- no way to tell- just use fibo for incremental levels
Thanks to ALL my regular contributors and the NEW people for some excellent commentary
Please log in as a follower- its very easy, and leaves no doubt as to your credibility.
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ONE AND ALL
Jay
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
January 2010
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
January 2010 - adjustments
January 2010 - adjustments
Monday, December 28, 2009
Dec 29th
propensity index which has a one day advance view, ran UP to 3010 from 2994 on the 25th
BUT that rise was not reflected by stock price increases
Now it has DROPPED back to 2996, and we await tomrrow's action
Its really amazing that when I put someones chart ont he blog, some people LOVE IT,
and OTHERS warn me not to do that, even tho I always give them credit for it
and on other blogs, some owners dont want me to mention this blog,
and yet others berated my for NOT mentioning this blog
I guess thats what makes the world tick.
258 bars and 21 hours are the SAME THING which hit at 2:30 nearly exact
and Ive been posting the bar cycles for a while now
the NEXT 21 hours, 258 bar cycle is on Monday Jan 4th at 10am
Will that be a LOW, or will it get truncated on Thursday at 4pm @ 252bars
which has occurred that way in the past.
the ECLIPSE is at 2:14pm Thursday along with 222 bars
note the NOV 2nd low occurred right at the FULL MOON @ 2:10pm
Jay
Saturday, December 26, 2009
REMINDER
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Its JUST a matter of WHEN
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
BREAK OUT or BREAK DOWN ?
One would suppose that a juncture like this we could put money on both sides.
Thus one side will certainly wipe out the other,
but it would still be a profitable trade, unless we get more stalemate through January
CBOE PC ratio
Monday = .67
Tuesday = .60
bearish, but the other pc ratios are mixed
more later
Jay
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
BOLLINGER bands
Can they stretch out another day or so??
MY propens index showed the HIGh as of yesterday which we got at 10:30 and again at noon
It also shows another high today POSSIBLY from 11am to 1pm
and this time an afternoon drop off into tomrrow morning lower open.
Some data shows a rebound after tomrrows open
Power index shows bulls still attempting to keep it rising thru the 23rd
with a defined drop on the 24th
Activity index FLAT at 100 all nite and still there at 9:45am
Jay
Monday, December 21, 2009
January 2010
it on a readable chart as above
Heres the Jan 2010 and it looks similar to December
Low first part of month or Dec 31st
high mid month
top out late month
Keep in mind numerological changes occur , generally speaking
5th
14th
23rd
Todays propens index shows a high mid day and drop off later
Jay
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Dec 20 preliminary
propens index is turning higher as of 12/20 at 1pm, but the complete pic
for Monday wont be available till the morning.
Monday might be shaping up as a sloppy day with 2 cycle pivots converging at 3pm
60bars & 78.6%/13day both at 3pm
FROM THERE, a stronger close would set the stage for Tuesday
which has a midnite high tide to assist a rally
I'm still expecting a PEAK on WED at about 1pm, and my game plan as of now is to short it.
Jay
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Dec 18 Bradley
Monday is characterized as a WINNER
so , yes rrman, once the low is set tomrrow on the Bradley date,
we can then expect a solid rebound next week
And so the SEE SAW continues next week when the bulls take over again
12/20 MORE NOW
READ comments
Monday might be shaping up as a sloppy day with 2 cycle pivots converging at 3pm
60bars & 78.6%/13day both at 3pm
FROM THERE, a stronger close would set the stage for Tuesday
which has a midnite high tide to assist a rally
I'm still expecting a PEAK on WED at about 1pm, and my game plan as of now is to short it.
Jay
Dec Chart - ANOTHER VIEW
Matches my graph also TO SOME DEGREE
As it shows the mkt rolling over int he DEC 21st to 22nd time frame,
then heading for a YEAR END SELL OFF as the other graph has shown
SINCE I first published it earlier this month
I waited till 8:30 and the employ report finally meets with energy waning
Today, similar to Nov 20 should end lower, but the open at 9:45 to 10am might just be the lod
102bars at 10am
61.8%/13 day cycle at 1;43pm could be the pivot to a better close,
but again compare to Nov 20
Another lower open tomrrow could also offer a fair buy opp, but the energy IS WANING
that doesnt mean the bulls wont keep trying to prop up the averages next week
However, as the chart above shows and my graph also shows, along with astro events
we should see a strong sell off on the 24th & 28th
repeating again - the Dec graph makes the case for another dip on the 31st
making it a great place to buy for a very strong open rally on JAN 4th and part of the 5th
more later
Jay
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
DECEMBER 2009
Monday, December 14, 2009
Waves
Sunday, December 13, 2009
DECEMBER 2009
Dec 2009
this is as good an interpretation as anyone else
And fits well into the balance of the month
STILL EXPECTING A STRONG reaction down on the 14th
which might linger thru the new moon on the 16th
BUT
NO CRASHES in Dec or Jan
Pivot lows within recent ranges or slightly lower are possible
Dec 14th & or 16th
HIGHS on Dec 22/23
Start decline on 24th TO Dec 28th & or 31st
BIG open new year rally on 4th and part of 5th
Jan 7 pivot low mid day
From late afternoon on 7th break out of congestion to new recovery highs - Jan 22nd
Jay
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Which WAY NOW Mr Elliott wave ?
Hes got a great collection of charts that update when you refresh
You can label this chart to be bullish or bearish
1106 at 9:45 am was very strong resistance as shown on the last posting
Can they overcome it and go to the next level UP??
after 1106 we can get to 1110-1112
OR if they open DOWN right away, they can rebound back
to unch at that 10:02 moon Jupiter trine
Are we half full or half empty ?
YES we are STILL in DOWN TREND TO MONDAY
waiting for the next 5 wave series to drop to lower support - wave "C"
to either 1071 or 1051 as previously shown
Yeh, I know, weve got lots of non believers
___________________________
After Monday there are very few indications of trouble and an XMAS rally appears eminent
BUT it cant start from here-
theres got to be some kind of shock wave to create NEGATIVE SENTIMENT
And the aspects indicate such is coming.
the weekend has more negative connotations that tomorrow,
& SINCE there is NO time left --
{{{{ sumthin's got to GIVE }}}}}
__________________________________________
AFTER Monday Some are projecting 1150 to 1200 spx
900 pts wre lost
900 x 62% = 560
666 + 560 = 1226
1937 rebound made it to 62.8%
more later
Jay
DOWN TREND
As you might be able to see -IMO- A downtrend started at 1119 mid day on the 4th.
IT now looks like were in a 4th wave FLAT, thus waiting for the last leg to a low on MONDAY
THE MAIN trend is DOWN till Monday at 10:27am
How the market gets there is another story
as we watch the UNDULATIONS which are typical in a declining trend
Dec is NOT a crashing type month, so anyone expecting such will be sadly disappointed
Some one identified 1055 as a potential price level in the comments yesterday,
and I see no reason to negate the possibility
Im counting wave 3 low at 1085.89
1086 had been posted by some technicians as a line in the sand by some techs,
and I see no reason to negate that either
more later
Jay
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
Waves
triangle of what kind ?
1112 to 1089 = 22 lost
NOT ready to BREAK down yet??
Ok tomrrow gets back to 1101 to 1103
Propens index shows UP from the start, but it could start lower.
Today's low at 9:45 and again at 3pm - very typical
According to the POWER index the BREAK down should take place on the 10th
MY game plan
sold puts at 3pm today
BUY back at 1101 area anytime tomrrow
I will be out of the office till noon tomrrow- hope i dont miss out, but I think 1pm
or 3pm will offer the opp.
Jay
Monday, December 07, 2009
Are we there yet?
As you can , Dec calls for some WILD swings
from HERE tot he end of the month
This is not going to be a normal quiet December
One big reason is the 377 week cycle at the end of the month
Bradley dates are
7th was a high
18th should be a high
28th should be a low
Tides are
7th high
13 low
22 high
29 low
Dec 2009 is a blue moon month
DEc 2nd full moon high spx close
but only one full moon eclipse on the 31st, and the reading for that is rather negative
callling for critical conditions & arguments
more later
Jay
Sunday, December 06, 2009
Dec 2009 final revision
This SHOULD be the final revision for December
Just got Charts Edge for this week and it looks very similar
His charts are NOT astro based
so its good to see 2 different systems with the same outlook
and FLASH has ALMOST the same dates as well - see his twitter link on main page
Heres some astro influences for this week
Dec 7th
calls for a challenging start but full steam ahead by days end
Dec 8
call is for stress & money headaches - similar to the 3rd
Dec 9
reading calls for A JARRING START & instability
then drifting along and just like CE charts, might find a low at 2pm - 3pm
Dec 10th
Lay low and recharge - might be able to get ahead
Dec11
Slow & contemplative, better in the AM
more later
Jay
Friday, December 04, 2009
more Helge
Heres another chart from Mr Helge - extended to the 16th
Undulations match the ones on my graph
for example
11/30 low
12/2 hi
12/3 lo
12/4 or 12/7 high - not as clear - see pink line instead of blue gyrations
___________________
then the week after
12/7 or 12/8 low
12/9 or 12/10 hi
12/14 lower LOW as Ive been projecting also
_____________________________
and up from there
Yes its very hard to anticipate every up & down the mkt wants to make ,
otherwise everyone would be privy to catching the waves
sorry it doesnt work that way
1119.13 at 9:45- is that it ??
Jaywiz index was .13 yesterday= VERY BEARISh
and the FIRST such low reading since Oct 22
Arms index at 10;30 = .72 - dont know what it was at 9:45
new highs NOW at 258/1 verses 318/1 on Nov 16th
Next week is Ians projected comparison to 1987 crash week
does that mean anything ??
we'll find out next week
Jay
HELGE
DECEMBER 2009
Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Dec 2009
Tuesday, December 01, 2009
Dec 2009
With Merc 90 Uranus yesterday right at the 3pm low, we might have seen the lows
with the next highs on Dec7th & 9th as above
Todays High looks good for 9:53am when Venus is 60 Neptune
Money illusions??
the next buying opp should come on Thursday which has some difficult readings
But the strongest day should come on Monday, Dec7th as the above graph shows
Jay
Friday, November 27, 2009
Make it SO
NOTE the RED SLANTED lines on the VOLUME at the top of the chart
Flash gave us Martin Armstrongs date of NOV23rd and so it was
I gave you Nov 30 th LOW at at 2to 3pm. and so it will be
I gave you a TURN on DEc1st at 3pm. thus we watch & wait
As per my Natural Energy graph, the dates per the original chart are skewed
it has taken me a little while to catch the actual dates, but I have it correct now.
todays cycles are
90b @ 11am
55%/13 day segment at 11:55am
IF we take Armstrong's work and learn from it, we can extend from NOV 23rd
the NEXT partial segments of 8.6 months
8.6 months = 181 tr days
4.3 mnths = 90.5 or 91
2.15 months = 45.25 or 46
46 tr days from Nov 23 = Jan 25th or 26th - should be a high
After a review of January
LETS make an ADJUSTMENT to the above statement -
Jan 29th SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A LOW !!!!
46 tr days falls on JAN 29th and is accompanied by numerous level 1 HARD ASPECTS
thus it should BE A LOW and if we look at the nat energy chart for Jan,
there is a confirmation which I will post early Jan.
Jay
Thursday, November 26, 2009
DECEMBER 2009
If you didnt follow the road map for Nov, then the one above for DEC wont matter to you.
The first pivot is on the FULL MOON of Dec 2nd, but since its at 3am, we have to consider
Dec1st as the pivot
Take NOTE of the LAST pivot on the graph
it occurs on DEC31st and YES another FULL MOON
2 full moons in the same month = a BLUE MOON
also take note of Flash who has called for a qtrly test at the end of DEC also
The overall chart shows potential for lower lows and lower highs till Dec31st- a full moon ECLIPSE
Jay
DUBAI
THE other shoe has dropped and its name is DUBAI- & default
Europe off 2% on our day off getting stuffed with Turkey, and futures off 100 dow so far
DId Flash say 10,200, could be Friday, a day early and when Friday's sell off
it usually sells off on Monday also
NOv30
CYCLE LOW as projected MANY times RIGHT here
& some of you are already SHORT as per your comments - Congrats
Some one woke up the BEAR, and he is making a lot of noise
more later
Jay
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Wider View
and he discusses this chart at his blog which you can access via red dragon on my links.
Jay
Heres MORE NOW [g]
It takes MORE than ONE
cycle hit to make it work
Nov 30/ Dec 1st
100 tr days JULY 10th - lo
108 tr days June 24th - lo
256 days from nov 20 lo = an 8day segment of 32 x 8
184 days from March 6 lo = also 8day segments
DEc1st = 256 from nov 21 = TURN
Dec 1st = 39 hours from nov 20 low @ 3pm-
nov 12 low @ 3;30 - nov 4th as 4pm
Oct 27 at 10am
39hours is quite consistent
a secondary low could occur on Dec 1st @ 3 to 3;30pm
I AM CONSIDERING THIS TO BE A PIVOT LOW & BUY long
ALSO very consistent is my 13 day JAYWIZ cycle
which I discovered on NOV 21st, 2008 at 11;05 am
HIT THIS morning at 10:12 am - Nov 24th = the exact lod
13 day cycle hits again 62% on Nov 30 AT 1:43pm
does NOT have to be the LOD, but often is.
There is astro at 2:53 pm which could extend the low to 3pm
Jay
End of NOV
Either we have already seen the last gasp attempt to get to 1121,
OR there will be one more shot on the 25th and or OPEN of the 27th.
Either way, the next bigger move is lower and according to the FLASH- 10,200 is support
which was the LOW close of NOV12th.
the 39 HOUR cycle moves from
Nov 12 @ 3:30pm
to
Nov 20 @ 3pm
THEN - NEXT to
Dec 1st at 3 or 3;30pm
Some divergences are noted on yesterday's new Dow high
spx, ndx, transpts did not make new highs, not yet anyway,
but might roll up next 2 days ??
PC ratios are much more negative
AND
New highs were 190 verses 318 on the 16th
more later
Jay
Monday, November 23, 2009
Armstrong date today
Its becoming painfully OBVIOUS that FLASH's Armstrong date of NOV 23 rd
MIGHT be the HIGH of the year
Flash has ALSo posted DEC 29th as an IMPORTANT QTRLY test
test of SUPPORT, I would venture to GUESS
where is SUPPORT?
Do some math and we can see where that might be
or we can look back at the last qtr and
NOV 2nd @ 9800
Oct 2 @ 9400 - or Spt 2 at 9200
That would be quite a SMACK down-
CAN we count on it ??- Depends on how strong the sell off is on DEC1st.
Jay
This week
Friday, November 20, 2009
Nov 20
Update from Daneric's public charts
Its funny that I had written to Dan & Alpha Yesterday and warned them of a lower open today
but when I wrote it up on jaywiz, I had changed my thoughts somewhat
Both thoughts were actually correct as the open dip was quickly followed to a 9:45 rebound
Anyway, We got the wave {v} down to 1087.01 at 11am
NOW we see the rebound from the 1pm daily turn
DID anyone else notice themselves getting hungry after 1pm??
It happens to me frequently just as the mkt starts to turn higher
Activity index at 2pm making a run higher , now at 266 at 3pm
Jay
THE MAIN 39hr pivots CYCLE
Nov 19 @ 11am low
Nov 11 @ 11am hi
Nov 3 @ 11am
Oct29 high
oct16 @9:45lo
oct7 @11am
Spt30 @10am lo
This cycle is important to short term traders as it is the small part of the 54 & 108 day cycles
that makes the NEXT important low on NOV30th as ive posted several times
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Finish wave {iv}
chart from DANERIC
As I called for a LOWER day today- see the Natural energy chart posted a few days ago
IT looks to me like wave {iii} hit today
ending the day in wave {iv} maybe, but maybe still higher tomrrow ending at or near the day's highs
21st is midnite high tide, and reading calls for improvement
I was contemplating what to expect for Monday if the above works out as projected.
The morning of the 23rd is NOT well aspected which suggests
a lower open followed by an even lower close with Venus 90 Jupiter @ 5pm
The combo of Moon 90 venus 90 Jupiter is considered a BAD mix
tuesday, however, opens with a strong PLUS
Wed finishes on a high
If bulls get the Turkey, then bears are supposed to get Santa
Happy T day
Jay
a simple view
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Math and the SPX
Reproduced from Steven Rock at the crystal ball group
After the SPX ATH of 1552.87 was reached on March 24th, 2000, the SPX declined until April 14th and then rallied to what some call a failure top of 1530.09 on September 1st 2000.
One of the reasons that the September top has importance in the mathematical structure of the index is the fact that 769 calendar days from and excluding 9/1/00, the SPX hit its October 2002 low OF 769! (768.83)
This drop of 761.26 points took 526 trading days (excluding 9/1) since the market lost 4 trading days due to 9/11.
It turns out the market may be revisiting these numbers as we work through November 2009.
Counting 769 calendar days from and excluding the Ocober 11th 2007 top, we reach November 18th, one of the reasons I have called for a CIT on 11/17+/-1.
But I may have outsmarted myself, because counting 526 TRADING days from the '07 top yields November 11th. The SPX reached 1105.37 on 11/11, exactly in the middle of my target of 1105+/-5.
What is really interesting, though, is the phi relationship of the '00-02 drop to this '07-'09 move.....
1530.09-768.83 = 761.26
1576.09-1105.37 = 470.72
761.26/470.72 = 1.617
Also, the ROC of price over the '07-'09 move is 470.72 points over 762 calendar days which is .618 pts/day!
And note how the price drop in the '00-'02 move (761.26 pts) and the calendar days of '07-'09 (762) are practically identical.
Still, this week should be important. The market has so many relationships to fulfill that we are in store for extremely interesting price-time action.
more later
Jay
Monday, November 16, 2009
Natural Energy
Was the LOW of NOV 12th an 18/36 wk low from July10 or is it coming later this week??
A dip low is shown on the chart above right in the MIDDLE of the month
followed by a quick rise to possibly the 17/18th
from there the chart shows a marked decline to the end of the month
& Nov 30 does meet various cycle criteria for such an event. & also = a 20wk low
Given weeks 18 to 20 , we would expect the market to be under pressure
and susceptible to selling the rallies, thus limiting any upside potential till NOv 30th
Astro also supports the above statement
13th Sun 120 Uranus
16 or17th = New moon
& Bradley turn dates
18-19th - Venus 90 Mars
23 - Venus 90 Jupiter
24 - Sun 60 saturn
25th Venus 120 Uranus - OFTEN coincides with important highs
26th Tday- Venus 120 mars
30th merc 90 Uranus
The purpose of the above is show the flow of positive and negative ions
due to the positions of those planets
more later
Jay
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Natural Energy
Friday, November 13, 2009
November Natural energy chart
We do see a secondary low on 3rd or 4th which we did get
5th big rally was next and well pictured into 9th high
one off day on 10th was followed by another rally on 11th
then it shows 3 days down-up down to possibly the 16th & 17th
then another rally follows immediately to 18th
and another 3 wave decline with one more rally to the 25th
The LAST dip looks to me LIKE a SHARP retreat on 27th & 30th
Jay
HELGE
He is one of the best in world- but his graphs can be complicated
However
IT does show a LOW on NOv 2nd -4th
High on 11-13
LOW on 16 -17
Higher on 18th
quick dip on 19th
higher on 20th -23rd
NOT an easy track to follow, but its pretty much what Im expecting
Monday does call for Dealing with $ issues & recharge your batteries
Tuesday gets the GREEN LIGHT
18th continues till mid day
Some one said they had the 19th as an important low,
but it does not fit into any cycle that I follow
It does appear to be an off day however
Dollar and stocks exact inverse reaction
Did today qualify as a wave 4?
Wave 4 may not have completed 3 legs
wv [a] hi at 12;30 & [b] wv low at 3pm
It does look like Monday should open higher for wv [c] = 4
OBV has been declining since 11/10, and was lower at todays close
than the low on the 12th at close showing internal weakness
more later
Jay
NOV 13th -2009
THE above CHART is from ALPHAHORN, and imo is right on target
with only a minor variation which I mentioned on my comments at his blog
An 8day high & turn has occurred
trin 5 hit 3,89 and arms 5 hit 77.5- BOTH issuing a short term SELL signal
I posted several occurrances of this past year in which the dow lost
300 to 600 points on similar sell TECH signals
POWER INDEX and PROPENS index are both showing LOWS today
futures are higher, but its only 8:15
A 10am high could be expected given the Consumer Confid report at 9;55am
IF os, then the rest of the day should head lower
GAME PLAN
Sell the 10am high
close out shorts at 4pm
Monday should then OPEN higher
and ALSO sell off leading to a LOWER
open on Tuesday at the 13 day cycle pivot
Monday is
a new moon
90 July 10 low
248 Nov 20 low = 31 segments of 8 days
the reading for the day - DEAL with $$ issues
Tuesday is
91 days july10 = the 13 day pivot at 10;30am
248 days NOV 21st
the reading for today - upbeat & we get the green light
more later
Jay
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Chart
Spx hit 1105.37 at 10:30 ON THE 39 HOUR cycle from OCT 3rd low at 10;30
which related back to OCt29- 16th & 7th
was an also 8day high & turn
Some had the Bradley as the 9th,
my study showed it as the 10th thus the 11th is right on schedule
I am out of the office this am & will be back after 11am
Jay
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
A Day of CONTRASTS
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Chart pattern trader public charts
Ian noted this on another site and at his blog - FYI for information only
Sep 3rd 1929 was an exact Fibonacci 55 squared weeks (Also close to Spiral calender (SC) F29) from August 25th 1987, exact all the way into the 10/29/29 Crash of 1929 = 10/20/87 Crash 0f 1987.
Here is the interesting part: October 09 is currently following an exact Fibonacci 34 squared weeks (also close to SC F25) cycle from the 8/25/1987 High.
Here is how the cycle breaks down:
1. 8/25/87 High = 10/20/09 High (+1)
2. 9/08/87 Low = 11/03/09 Low (-1 )
3. 9/14/87 High = 11/09/09 High +/-1
4. 9/22/87 Low = 11/17/09 Low +/-1
5. 10/5/87 High = 11/30/09 High +/-1
6. 10/12/87 Low = 12/07/09 Low +/-1
7. 10/13/87 High = 12/08/09 High +- 1
8. Crash Week: 10/20/87 Crash Low = 12/15/09 Low +/- 1
September 3rd 1929 High was an exact Fibonacci 55 Squared weeks away from August 25th 1987, which is an exact Fibonacci 34 squared weeks away from October 21st 2009 High. How unusual is that? Will History repeat?
__________________________________________________
Did we NOT have A CLEAR 5 WAVE DECLINE into NOV2nd ?
IF so, then shouldnt we consider the CORRECTION is NOT OVER
5 waves down to Nov 2
3 waves up to Nov 9 or 10 = a Bradley turn
5 waves down to Nov 13 -16
We have numerous cycles converging on 12th and 16th
12th & 13th
89 July9 lo to lo
144 Apr22 lo to lo
176 Mar 6 - lo to lo
14th = Midnite low tide
Saturn 90 Pluto
264 Oct27th- 2008 lo to lo
_________________
16th
248 NOV 20 = 8day cycles lo to lo
247 Nov 21 = JAYWIZ 13 day cycles
Bradley turn date
NEW MOON in Scorpio= death & transformation
a LOW on the 12th should roll over to another low on 16th
Maybe thats what Flash refers to 3 legs???
NOv 13 to 16 = VERY SIMILAR to Nov 2nd - 4th = a rolling low
BUT this time possibly lower on 3rd leg on 16th & open on 17th
_____________________________
more later
Jay