little boy who cried wolf once to often
The PREVIOUS Energy discussion explained the similarities we are now experiencing to Aug, 2008 and the 34 trade days that followed dropping 3200 Dow pts
The Current configuration has been compared and found matching in many ways to Spt 6th, 1929
And others have a configuration similar to the 1930-1931 time period
there is also a configuration this month on the 21st that compares with the DUBAI effect
The JULY 30th & 31st configs can act as a trigger to demanding energy about to descend on
our economic structures
This weeks daily effects
Aug 2nd
expect distractions early
Take cover even if the day goes smoothly
Aug3rd
Difficult money matters
Aug4th
Conflicts
Aug 5th
Harsh start, but better after
Aug 6th
Happy, hopeful start
changes later and the caution flags are out
more later
Jay
8 comments:
Jay, Everyone is bullish- expecting 1131 to 1150, even 1220.
My only concern is the 30yearchart of 2nd year presidental cyclle is showing rally from now to august 26 and big drop from there to sept. What I have seen from last months, without following anything else, if i had just followed this chart- I would have done good
Hi Rose
Its always a case of after the fact
Shoulda, coulda, woulda
Ive been waiting for the MAIN CROWD to get SUPER bullish
Contrary views says NO
Jay
I've said it many times last week, bonds and yen are at levels which are more consistent with SPX 900 if not lower. Either ALL that money sitting in bonds would come back right now and we see 1180-1200 in no time or SPX would be 900 in no time also.
Since so far bonds were leading - i lean towards 2nd scenario
By the way, Jay, your graph suggests that sell-off into the close on Friday would materialize on Monday, is that right?
I remember you mentioned that Monday may be a positive day
wherever the selloff starts dont cover until 120 points gain. if the top is 1120 -120=1000 then reevaluate.
I still dont believe it why people want to go long for 9 points until October
Reza - you mentioned that why would people go long for 9 points ... as you see form last q - even though the tgt was 1130 - we moved in a range of 1220 - 1020 - that is a lot of money to be made ... even if the tgt is 1100 - you can expect 1000 - 1200 as the range - again that is where the money will be made ...
Basically - if you get a deep fall, expect it to revert - so take profits and wait for reentry ... this is not time to buy and hold - for both long and short ...
thanks for the graph jay,its almost identical to my delta cycles for the coming month.im expecting for a big drop into the 12th to appear,the entry point is gonna be difficult however,i cant rule out a "bear burn" early next week.the danger being last week was 4 of 5,with new highs above 1120 to come.tomorrow could come with a massive opening gap though,its never easy...
Its great to read that we are covering our bearish outlooks with BULLISH back drops- just in case
Jay
sirg
the READING for Monday DOES NOT indicate severity, BUT the day could start off with a 258 bar cycle low, then recover somewhat
IMO- consider any recovery or upside activity Monday to be a very good Opp to add shorts
Jay
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