That did NOT go well for the EKG today now set back for 2 days in a row.that hasnt happened since March, when I first started publishing it.
NOTE
we just went from OVERSOLD on Friday to NOW overbot
yesterday's PC ratios were 80% Bullish
Today's PC ratios are 80% BEARISH
Reading for tonight calls for $$ Crisis- no idea what that means,
but we'll see if Europe is effected tonight
10am = 13 hr cycle HIGH, but it could be only a rebound high off an early retreat
IF the EKG rolls over into a lower open tomrrow, rather than a lower close today
Just as I mentioned yesterday, the EKG reflects 156bars on open todaybut a mid day rebound should then give way to more selling in the last 1 or 2 hours
Wed should open higher in reverse of today, and even it it opens low, then 10am should offer
a great TURN lower from that short term high
Review
July9th LOW
JULY15th High with 16th TURNING LOWER
July 30th LOW
August 10th as published = 360 day LOW from March 6th = 1/2 of 144wks= 72 wks exactly
Jay
38 comments:
Jay you show 10am eastern as the hod today?
textbook cup and handle completed on the 5 minute chart,unfortunately i missed it as was out.here at 31.4 looks a nice short though,so selling me some.
completely disagree....
I think we JUST started this rally...
yes we'll "bob and weave" the new uptrend,but make no mistake,per the nova/ursa index and timing,all you need to look at is the rally from 6/8 bottom into opex...
SAME thing will happen here per the nova/ursa...look at 60 min charts and I believe we are ,today,at the 6/10 point...
higher into opex,then back in tza for me,but not until then
shake & bake baby
we've only just begun
Francois - can u explain what you mean by nova / ursa ?
Ricky - what are you looking for - up / down ?
i said in my post yesterday the bottom was likely in.todays short is nothing but an intra day trade that didnt work out for me francois, 3pts dropped but only half stakes.no worries lol.
have a small turn lined up for around 11:25,but its not a clearly defined one.if it does show it should be a high.
My work says we are cose to a BUY signal on my version of the 13 day cycle. We got more upside baby.
any minor retrace should be bought...
I know jay says don't look at my "amplitude" so I don't...
ALL I KNOW is s+p SHOULD test that 1073-1080 area BY OPEX..
just loot at 6/8 bottom into June opex...
rydex nova/ursa is real money put/call and it's 3:1 RETAIL puts,just like 6/8...the BEST indicator as to STUPID money
the SMART money LOVES retail on the wrong side of the rowboat as we ALL know...
yesterday achieved what the smart money wanted;they wanted BEARS saying"wow! look how weak this market is,I want MORE puts/shorts/tza/etc...
WRONG!
Francois
where do i find Rydex nova ursa??
I bet Jay will say (and I don't blame him) that the "down open" happened pre-market.
Now it will be interesting to see if the sell off happens.
Some of you are bullish here in contrast to what jay says over the last half of the week. But you don't say why your bullish so your not helping me
wow ben
1) eur/usd rally from 6/29 60 minute hammer @ 10am and 8pm
2) vix down from thurs/fri even as market went lower
3) my candle analysis
I said 5x it's a coiled rubberband ready to unwind to the upside
donno how much more clear I could be
rrman
that 10am IS FOR TOMRROW at the 13 hr cycle
Could be a LOWER high than today
also
Struggling NOW at noon to 1pm at the 1042
Macd peaked on first rally this am
Combining yestrday EKG with today might end up looking exact- see it later
Jay
Francois
Next week ENERGY looks POSITIVE & strong as Ive mentioned several times
In between is the CYCLE convergence LOW due on the 9th
Im Catching a short today
& buying long on Friday
Jay
BEN
as I mentioned to rrman
combining yest & today EKG might end up being perfect
Sometimes, ive noticed the EKG late DIP rolls over from the previous day
I'll post a chart of the 2days against 2 days of ekg after makrt
just to get the effects of it
Jay
jay,
imho the low you project,assuming it happens, will SIMPLY be a small retrace in this new uptrend and will NOT go below 1035-1038 s+p...
this will be JUST LIKE the 6/8 to 6/21 run and we are similar today to 6/10's trading...
that should take us to a high cerca 7/16
Good call on the high Jay Helge agrees with you faz and tza are on sale
6/3 we moved halfway up the /es channel then fell back to the bottom of the channel before a quick move to the top
Francois
YES that could very well happen
in other words
the HIGH today will be offset by a low on friday at the 1030ish level.
rather than sell off from today's high sub spx 1000 on friday
If they get to 1070 today < i would begin to think about door
#1 above
but any thing today from 1040 to 1050 & NOT holding- I think would indicate weakness thus looking at door #2
Jay
AT 1:45
activity index
has plunged to 66
IT was at 66 ALL NITE
rose to 166 at 11;30
and has cascaded back to 66
at 1:45
If that is an indication of
a loss of buying energy, then we should see the results of it in lower prices within the next 90 minutes
Jay
what do you mean by door #1&2?
Francois - how you get the nova/ursa charts - is there a link ?
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/rydex_nu.aspx
.29 on 7/2 and .26 on 7/6!!!
what a bear trap!
no way we see 1000 as many have said befor 1070-1080...may even try the 1110-1130 range into opex!
jay, have you considered that EVERYTHING may have inverted?
even the activity index?
I don't know how it works, but bulls look amazingly active right now...
francois the nova/ursa index is very interesting will be interesting to see how low we go tonight sometimes when we are transitioning from a down week to a upweek Helge can skip the last wave down and the upwave before it extends into the big up wave
rrman, r u still long TNA and FAS. or you are planning to buy on friday
still long tna and I called 41-42 window(gap) as nova ursa was screaming rally
also,as you and I pointed out last weds-fri
eur/usd AND vix told us all we needed to know!
The MKT is doing exactly what the readings indicated
INcome boost Tues
income boost WEd
NOW expect a high at 10am tomrrow, and reversal
Thsday- aftnoon problems
Fr- Controversy & disputes
Jay
This site screws me up really bad.
I have to leave
GERMANY is GONE!!!!!!!!!!!
yeeeeehawww!!
@benjoyce
u need to find your own system.
Don't come here until u do!
Did u like my GAP UP and futures reversal call yesterday?
Thats my system.
Rickybobby
What is your system?
BEN
How do you evaluate the mkt?
DO you have a set of RULES that you use to determine bull or bear?
I track MULTIPLE sets of DATA
which I do mention most of the time
I do keep a DAILY LOG on a legal pad for 5 days on each page
dow
spx
rut
ARMS
PC ratios
Cycles
readings
SPREAD sheet of arms data & related indexes some of which are my own.
plus plus plus
If your not keeping track of things, then IT is very easy to become confused
Jay
Ricky - u make good calls - can u share your system / what u look for ?
Ricky
I think Netherlands will win the cup.
Stats from 1982 say that the team that beats Brazil in the second round wins the cup. Also, the team that lost the first game never won the world cup, which puts Spain out of question.
What do you think
Jay..your EKG chart today looks like of a person who was short and had to go hospital
the only thing that worries me about a rally is that /dx is at the bottom of the channel and the move up a bit ago is a bounce off that...the rally in early june had the /dx at the top of the channel....it will be hard to rally with the /dx moving up
/dx chart
http://www.facebook.com/Kyle.Graft?v=wall&story_fbid=141228439221703#!/photo.php?pid=31413538&id=1127956965
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