this one did not work out s well as it showsTHE 26 HOUR CYCLE & 13 day CAME IN RIGHT as scheduled, but the EKG made it look like a late sell off was going to happen, and IT STILL MIGHT , but as of tomrrow's open
Jay
Im really not sure what to make of the abovebut the futures at 8:45 are modestly lower and would open at 1042 area-
This is NOT a resounding Bottoming type event, but do we really expect it today
GUESSING - IF 11am at the 13 day cycle finds the spx under 1040, then a rebound to 1050
would set up a later drop possibly to 1030, if the above EKG works out.
EKG shows late day gaps, { GREAT IF IT HAPPENS} but I really dont expect the mkt to behave that way also--
Todays energy STILL reading negative VIBES
and Tomrrow MUCH more positive thru Monday
SPOOS getting weaker as I write this at 8:55am, and IF they dp open under 1040, it is POSSIBLE to make the 10am-11am low at 1030
One would think that a break under 10K Dow would set off an avalanche of selling??
BUt we also might expect 1040 to hold this AM, but not later
Chat roll is up
more later
Jay
28 comments:
Dow Jones futures before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/08/dow-jones-futures-before-opening-bell_25.html
dollar sells off on bad eco data and then the bulls start to buy the ES. how much longer will this work?
cementzak
SPX 1040 HELD AT 10AM
Waiting to see what 11am brings
WE are In the 370 to 377 tr day CYCLE LOW dues to occur on Spt 3rd
It can be effective from Spt 1st to 7th
IMO, A LOW on SPT 1st = A BUY on SPT 7th
WE should be well below 10K dow
& spx well under 1000
That 12 day count from Aug 9th is at 3pm today hi to lo
60bars at 11;30
90bars at 2pm
108bars, sometimes effect @ 3pm
Jay
YESTERDAY made 2 rebounds off teh OEPN LOW at 1040
the highs were at
11:30 @ 1060
&
3;15 @ 1059
Thus we would count that wave as a FLAT- meaning much lower prices are to follow, and so far they have done so.
Its 10:30, and Im waiting for 11am to see the 13 day cycle effect, if any
New homes sales poor, and builds on the negative effects of todays reading
If the EKG is right, then we should get a lower close.
Jay
according to my count currently in a wave 4, and this should be followed by a thrust lower to end somewhere between 1025-1030. this decline should be followed by a wave 4 of a higher degree. ultimately i expect a retest of the 1010 low, probably go slighty below that as minute i of Minor [3] - if this count is correct the real uglyness would come after the bounce. so i can see the bounce coming, however Jay - do you see major uglyness on the radar for 2nd part of september or so????
sincerely,
cementzak
CEMENTZAK
NO NO NO
After the 377 day LOW EARLY SPT from
the 1st to 7th, The REST OF SPT WILL BE HIGHER to the 20th
Serious drop 3rd week to 24th
1010 has GOT TO GO
cannot possibly hold that level
on this cycle??
Jay
Jay, r u still expecting reboud tomorow to monday
Hi Rose
Log on to chat roll
conversation with 2 harley
I would like to see a low close today under 1040, or at least 1040
CYCLE effect similar to June21 to july2nd
wave is in the right place for a PLUNGE
1010 has got to go- not sure when it will occur, if all at once or drip drip
see prior waves to get a feel for how it evolves
Jay
don;t know how to log in chat roll
Chat roll is on my MAIN page
Scroll down to it
Jay
DAmn, Its beginning to look like
the low was this Morning at 10am
Last hour will tell all
Repeat yesterday?
Jay
have a small turn due at 3:25.could be hod...
Hi Jay,
I can't seem to find the chatroll link on your main page. How about a clue, like what part of the page?
myy longs doing well today as per yesterdays call.
shake&bake
CHAT Roll is UNDER My PICTURE
Jay
3:25 turn??
I'll look for it
Even if we close flat today, I would consider that OK,
job claims tomrrow AM
could start out the same as today, but the rebound looks stronger than today
1080 to 1040 is ONLY ONE 40 pt move, then next level is at 1000
IF I use the price levels discussed last week, 980 to 960 is potential for next weeks Low on Spt 1st, otherwise they would be selling off to a greater degree right now
40 pt rule of thumb
1220- 980= 240 pts/ 40 = 6 X
with out a challenge of 1010 this week, we are stuck in a narrow range as above
Jay
Jay
long 53.4. 2.5pt stop. turn if arriving is a low.
ITS possible we have one of those EKG's that ROLLS OVER to THE NEXT DAy, but the EKG for tomrrow doesnt seem to show that very clearly.
It does however, show tomrrow UP
Jay
out at 56.4.why be greedy??
Bottom may be in! Be prepared. It's looking like it on my charts. I'll take a closer look tonight but some bigger cycles have turned up today with confirmation buys. Rember the "CIT's" like to sneek up on you if you're not paying attention. So far holding into the close , will take profit and let some run.
shake & bake
needs to close under 1055.2 cash to remain near-term bearish.otherwise some more up tomorrow morning at least.
WARNING
BUY ANY LOWER OPEN TOMRROW within the first 10 minutes
EKG shows HIGHER all day tomrrow
Jay
UPPER potential is to 1075 tomrrow
Anyone got a better number ?
Jay
lol jay. had 1076.6 if its any good to ya,but only if we gap up.
huge gap down tomorrow . then maybe up all day
cementzak
After8
GAP up or open down wont matter
still a good target
Jay
HI JAY, SEE IF THIS WORKS ?
(MY STUFF)
HIGH 113.18 TO LOW 104.29 = 89 FIB NO AND FROM HIGH 110.39 TODAY LOW 104.29 =61 FIB NO.PLS ADVISE
THANK YOU
LOUIE
Assuming we end positive tomorrow, do you think we rally into 9/1, or do you think we stop around 8/30. Any price target to the upside before the potential decline to 1010 or lower around the first of Sept. on the S&P. Seems it can't go above 1100 before a decline. Also the first 2 down moves since the 8/9 high have been 59.75 points and 60.51 points before the bounces. Will this next move be greater than that. Long question, but thanks.
thanks louie
IF we do MAKE IT to 1075, then the NEXT fibo number to look for would be another 89
1075-89= 986 , and that fits with what ive already projected.
However, I would think we would get the next multiple of 144 from 1075=931
1040 to 1074 = 34 pts fibo??
SO we can set up a range from 980 to 930 on SPT1st
Actually the only thing IM 80% sure of is the date- SPT1st.
Jay
Fred
I thought my DAILY OUTLOOK MADE the SCHEDULE CLEAR
I publish on the main page tomrrow Am to clarify what to expect between now and PT 1st.
Jay
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