Wave (ii) looks LIKE a FLAT
why?
Low 1061.19 yesterday
10am HIGH at 1071.29
NOON low at 78.6%/13day cycle at 1064.27
3:30 high at 1071.52
OBV drops off
Macd rolled over
Ultimate topped at 3;30
That sets up a wave 3 down from the start on Monday
which fits in with the afterglow of all the EUPHORIC astro this week
Tuesday has
39hrs from the lower open on the 14th
13 day cycle at 10:30am, which opens the door for a recovery into the close
WEd is indicated DOWN from the START with NO LET UP
Get ready to BUY Friday's close
Jay
47 comments:
Cal, your posts are great. If you do have a price or time levels, please post. otherwise for short term trade you are doing great.
post from Mahendra:
STOCK MARKET
Last week markets remained positive and some juice is still pending before the meltdown. This week final degree of SUN indicates huge volatility, there will be a fall in markets on Monday and Tuesday so we expect weak trend in Asian market like India, China and Hong Kong and all other European market.
All markets will gain in the second half of Wednesday and Thursday and this positive trend will remain in Asian markets but on Thursday USA market will get sold-off in big way and on Friday the same story will be repeated in all major markets.
NOTE: All major markets can still trade in a volatile trend until the end of September before they crash in a big way in the last two days of September of in first week of October so your option trade should be planed soon. Buy December puts in Nifty India reaching 3800, Dow reaching 7800 and all other market should be target 30% fall in trades
Yes Cal
Your posting trades is a great addition
It helps the group keep perspective
AGAIN- MAHENDRA is DEAD wrong about Spt 29th & 30th
IT WILL BE A CRASH UP
CONTRARY to LAST years SPT 29th.
IT WILL TAKE TILL AT LEAST oct7th before we get a SELL signal worth 2000 points
HIS outlook for NEXT week is SIMILAr to mine with some variations
Jay
Short ES 1071 on thursday, closed 1057, reshorted 1064 on Fri close. Stop now set at breakeven.
Murrey Math is suggesting support at
SPX 1010, not 1040 as some are thinking
that would represent a loss of 65 pts and 78% of the last 83 pts gain
Euphoria ended on the new moon at 2;45pm Friday
Sell Rosh Hashanah
BUY Yom Kippur
Jay
Jay,
Are you expect the upturn to reach the 1100 area as most are predicting? I went short Friday, and I expect a pullback Monday for sure. I'm just not sure if they decide to start the final push up from about the 1040 area, or sell off more until this Friday, and then push back up the following week?
A nice 5 wave move down to Friday would make sense. Wave 1 down on Monday, wave 2 up on Tuesday (small up), wave 3 down on Wednesday, wave 4 up (doji day), and a small wave 5 down on Friday.
Makes logical sense... but the market never uses logic! LOL!
Jay
At the head of the thread, you r label of first down as (i) is incorrect since it has only three subdivisions. Under a label (a) and (b)makes it plausible bearish alternative that we topped Thursday, compared to the short term bullish alternative that the entire thing from top is a,b,c, d, e triangle for a small degree iv, before one more thrust up towards 1078-1080 area to complete 3 of C that started from 979.
In the larger degree, which is much more important, there are three alternatives for now.
FIRST ALT- B ended at 978 and we are in 3: We have or are about to complete 3 of C followed by 4 down and 5 up for C to be done. In this alternative, 4 can not go below top of 1 at 1039ish, as that will invalidate the count.
SECOND ALT- B ended at 991, we are about to, or have, completed all of C. In this case, down and down we go.
THIRD ALT- B ended at 991 and, we are about to, or have, completed ONLY 1 of all of C. ONLY IN THIS ALTERNATIVE, is it possible to get a deep retracement below 1039, as you expect, FOLLOWED BY NEW HIGH.
In terms of eventual hi for C, the THIRD ALT is actually the most bullish, because 3 , 4, 5 are still ahead in that case.
Which is the most likely count to pan out is difficult to tell. Dan Eric prefers FIRST ALT. Kenny prefers SECOND ALT. EWI implies all three are possible without spelling the three out. Your expectation for a deep retracement to be followed by a new hi would imply THIRD ALT. The way to play 1010 will be to go long there with a stop below 991 at the widest or at the low below entry at the narrowest.
Hi Red.
EXACTLY correct
Jay
Jay,
Wed is FOMC day. Going by past patterns, market should rally from open to 2:15Pm on Wed into the FOMC announcement. If not a big rally, at least about 10 points or so is to be expected. Any sell off you are expecting has to come after the 2:15 PM announcement. So all day down on Wed is not a possibility in my opinion.
Thanks Jay...
I wanted to make sure my gut feeling was backed up by some logic. I spent the weekend trying to make sense of it, and write it up on my blog.
I read a lot of blogs, from many good chartists and TA guys. Since I'm not an expert at any of those, I just write what I feel makes sense. This weekend's post was a little out of the norm, since I mixed theories into it. But, it matches up well with your thoughts too.
Red
Arak
Normality might go out the window this week as the day has an abundance of hard aspects, and Wed falls on a 55 tr day LOW to low from July7th & 110 Apr 20
BUT otherwise your FED day observations are absolutely correct
Jay
Ravi;
It looks like DANERIC will be Re labeling his Elliott wave after today
Jay
A possible shallow correction
a 1074.77 1061.20 -13.57
b 1061.20 1071.52 10.32 76.1% of a
c 1071.52 1064.27 -13.57 c=a of a
Deeper correction may need double zig zag
Wasn't the market supposed to be down
from the open???? I don't think EW
has any value real time.
looks like we visit 1080 before any correction
Cycles indicate the high today between 13:45 - 1400, closing down with the aftermarket very active to the downside.
Shorting Big Time here!
Loading Up Puts SPX 1064.
Cal
Thanks cal. same here. what is your exit strategy.
Hank, Thats NOT a TRUE statement
elliott is in the eye of the viewer
As yu can see by My own Elliott interpretation of Friday's trading
I may NOT be very good at labelling, but it sure went MY WAY this AM.We will see what the LABELS looks like tonight
Yes COY, numerous SHORt term cycles CONVERGE tomrrow at
10am, which should allow a rebound into the close and at 2pm they are holding UNDER the 11:45 rebound high
BUT
Wed starts out the day at 10:19am with Sun 90 Pluto = POWER STRUGGLES & not beneficial for bulls
using 83 pts-the last lo-hi gain
Fridays low = 13.58pts OR 16.3%
Monday@10am = 17.31 = 21%
Whats NEXT
Venus 45 Mars at 3;10pm
would like to see 29% = 1050.77
above # Could also hit at close
leaving Tues @ 10:30 to hit 1043.07 @ 38% to be followed by a rebound the rest of the day
@ 38% to 78%
from 1055.18 to as high as 1067.98
WEd still has a great potential to be substantial
REMEMBER
GET ready to BUY the close FRIDAY
Jay
my 9:22 am post had math error on last line. the target of 1057.95 has since been slightly exceeded
a 1074.77 1061.20 -13.57
b 1061.20 1071.52 10.32 76.1% of a
c 1071.52 1057.95 -13.57 c=a of a
I will take some off when we pass today's intraday low tomorrow. Should move past and beyond but you never know.
Don't post your stops because those(some) azzholes will run them.
Cal
Every point above 1064 , I add more puts. They doing me a favor. Heavy, Heavy. Okay I'm adding more puts regardless.
Cal
Hank, Thats NOT a TRUE statement
elliott is in the eye of the viewer
As yu can see by My own Elliott interpretation of Friday's trading
I may NOT be very good at labelling, but it sure went MY WAY this AM.We will see what the LABELS looks like tonight
Yes COY, numerous SHORt term cycles CONVERGE tomrrow at
10am, which should allow a rebound into the close and at 2pm they are holding UNDER the 11:45 rebound high
BUT
Wed starts out the day at 10:19am with Sun 90 Pluto = POWER STRUGGLES & not beneficial for bulls
using 83 pts-the last lo-hi gain
Fridays low = 13.58pts OR 16.3%
Monday@10am = 17.31 = 21%
Whats NEXT
Venus 45 Mars at 3;10pm
would like to see 29% = 1050.77
above # Could also hit at close
leaving Tues @ 10:30 to hit 1043.07 @ 38% to be followed by a rebound the rest of the day
@ 38% to 78%
from 1055.18 to as high as 1067.98
WEd still has a great potential to be substantial
REMEMBER
GET ready to BUY the close FRIDAY
Jay
thanks Cal
50% retrace today = 1066.11
most likely
78% = 1068.18- I doubt it
Jay
Good work Friday Jay.
Cal
I agree Cal they do run the stop for a fraction of second.
Thanks Jay, ravi, an cal for your input.
Again, if you look at 5 min chart, it is froming a symetrical triangle and at its apex. it can breakdown or breakout. As ravi said, it goes with the trend of the day. let us hope it is down
Jay, With all due respect, I follow
many blogs, newsletters, etc and have yet to find someone who posts their trades 'real time' and consistently out performs the s&p 500. If you know of anyone please let us know.
Fake breakout?
selling 63.7.downside a coming this week
Hank
Have yuo ever read
Jerry Rubinstein
HE is an ELLIOTT WINNER
millions
Jay
A,B,C zigzag complete. Sucking in some longs into the close. Typical stuff.
Adding puts here also at 1066.40
Cal
Looks like higher after that 3;10 pm
aspect
IF 30 BARS does NOT hit today at close then combined with the other short term cycles, then tomrow should start the same way it did today.
Elliott wave
Friday got an A down & B at close
Mnday = C at open
And X wave the rest of the day
Tuesday
COULD reach for highs, but should open lower first on a "C" wave
Wed should open higher first (Arak)then sell off thru Friday
at 10am
I was hoping to trade a few times this week, but we might only get 2
out of it.
Remember to BUY Friday at either 10am If open DOWN and or close.
Jay
it now looks like fake breakout. what is your take Cal here?
What's going on? I wanted to add more puts still at above 1066.
Stop dropping. I don't want my profits this early.
Cal
Well, maybe 4pm will sell off
the POWER index does suggest such
but ive been hesitant to expect it.
3;30 turned down, but its got to plunge from here in the last 10 Minutes
unless this is a setup for the open as previously described
Jay
well see in the next few minutes
Activity level just dropped to 100
at 3;40
but there may not be enuf time to react
It was at 225 at 2pm
Jay
55% of the retrace of the total loss of 17.31 from the high 1074.77 to 1057.46 today = 1066.98
the got to 1067.28 for a moment
at 3;30pm
Yes, it STILL looks like 30 bars at open & 39 hours from 14th at 945
+ 13 day CYCLE at 10;30 which might truncate to 10am
More later
Jay
Bullish close .. they are setting this up for FOMC.
europe will likely drive us higher unless BOJ intervenes to drive up the dollar.
Jay, What is Jerry saying now??
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Jay, it seems that the whole world is looking at October 10 date for the start of big drop.
there has to ba a surprise element somewhere in this. It will happen sooner than Oct 11 or much later. Or the sentiment has to be sky high and everyone has discounted October 10 date. then no surprise is the surprise.
waht is your opiion on this?
Hope you bought the dips today. We are setting up for a retest of 1071. Market should launch tomorrow
x
Man, there sure is a lot of nervous bullish after market chatter going on all over the place. hmmmmm.
xx
WHERE'S THE CORRECTION JAY???????
SEEMS TO ME LIKE THERE IS NONE THIS WEEK AT ALL.
HOW CAN YOU BE SO FAR OFF IN YOUR ANAYSIS???????
BETTER JUST TO BE A BULL, NO?
Fedup
higher open today does NOT make a run away bull mkt and gives Cal lower option prices to add more shorts
NO decline yet !!!???
Only the first wave setup **
high 1074.77 - low @ 1057.46
17.31 pts lost
rebound levels
78.6% Max = 13.61 = 1071.07
Looks like its good for this morning
Power index as I mentioned b4 is sometimes hard to tell where one day ends and the next one begins
thus occasional confusion.
then there are the short term cycles which appeared to be showing a lower open, but the 39th hr cycle can oscillate in either direction and it would appear the 9:45 is NOW going to be a high at the above mentioned level
Power index slips lower and makes a definitive slide tomorrow as Ive mentioned the 23rd several times regardless of FED day.
charts edge shows
Mnday up -- ?? after a DOWN open
Tuesday down
Wed flat
Ths & part of Fri down
I told you to EXPECT a LOWER OPEN Monday AGAINST ALL ODDS, and yuo had every chance to cover your
shorts
I had told yuo to expect Tuesday to recover, but had been expecting a lower open- cant have it all
Expecting the 23rd to Sell off
Substantially
I dont understand ANON's complaints.
Jay
thought i would post up a chart of the DOW. You can see price is at the center tong of the fork which could stop the move up. it can move through it but should consolidate then up. also price consolidated here back in 04 So if you was long in 04 you are not quite breaking even and baby boomer who would like to retire and large 401K's might like to take some off soon? If not i am sure they are buying Puts to protect and the market is content to wash the PUT holders out
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=M&yr=19&mn=0&dy=0&i=p10110548380&a=162664798&r=394
ASTRO 8
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