Elliott wave 3 way back in FEb
CONTRACTING TRIANGLE A-B-C-D-E
E was just at 934 on -- YUP -- August 17th
A 5th wave THRUST to 1000 COULD END the 5th wave NOW,
or on October 3rd to 10th if they stretch it out that far..
And I think they WILL as it also follows EQUITIES to the OCT10th
PEAK that Ive mentioned a few times
in other words, it could take 5 waves within the 5th wave to complete the cycle
& At 978, its at a strong resistance point right now, BUT....
___________________________________________
Im STILL expecting an UP THRUST at tomrrow's open
I dont think it will last more than 15 minutes at most
SO, I will be positioned to SELL at 9:35am- THAT IS :: GIVEN a rally open
TODAY we had the following bar cycle LOWS
60bars at 10:30
90bars @ 1pm
126BARS @ 4pm
NOW heres an interesting POINT
Since 126bars HIT at CLOSE, it LEAVES the DOOR OPEN for tomrrow's rally
NOW, Im sure YOU remember I posted another take away AT
11am to noon tomrrow's converging multiple cycles & astro
Ravi
what WAVE count do we get after the LOW at 991.79?
It looks like an "a" to 1000.34 at noon
and 'b" at close
"c" could carry to 1009 with Dow up 100 pts
Then The 13 day cycle low would = the X wave
and ONE more SET of 3 waves to Friday AM at 1009 to 1016 area.
THSDAY
POWER index has a rise to 450, then a LOW at 350, then ends the day at 500
Friday starts at 600, and falls to 450 by days end
the POWER INDEX 7 day outlook is set at a low 300 on the 9th.
More later
Jay
44 comments:
From a very good and sober service:
3:15 PM Update: We will remain on hold and not take a short position today. Our proprietary intra-day TICK chart is showing the Green line is above the horizontal trigger line. So there is no setup for a drop like we had yesterday. See you tomorrow.
Surendra
Can we get the URL for that good and sober service?
LT
Jay:
At 991.97 we completed (iii) after completing lower degre iv earlier. Since then we have been working on (iv) that has dione its a, b and needs to do c to end in 1003.50 to 1006 area. Say 1006. If we have a (v) from say 1006 AND (v)=(1), we are talinkg of 1006-16= 990 as target. If (v) = 1.618* (1); then we can bottom at 980. So 980-990 traget before rally to at least retrace drop from 1039.
2:25 AM
Now that's what I call a Gap-Up.
Shorts will be getting killed at open and covering like crazy.
This Bull market's not dead folks.
It's only just begun.
Jen
This could easily be a wave (iii) of 1 off yesterday's low with (iv) and (v) to come.
Jen
1004.8 eqvt was reached at 7:30 . That or slightly higher hi can be (iv) top, if we are in impulsive five down.
For impulsive five down count to remain valid,(iv) can't go above bottom of (i).
bottom of (i) was 1023.13.
im sticking with this being a 4 of 1 at the moment unless we break 1010.bottom of 5 of 1 tomorrow sometime with wave 2 next week.
Ravi
1006 looks OK
Needs to break above 1001.67
this AM, but struggling at 9:45 at 999
ACTIVITY index stuck at 100 all morning
Cycle convergence at noon, so theres still more time between now @ 11am to make that intital high
Power index shows
450 open higher
350 lower mid day
550 higher close
Jay
Today's Picture:
Neutral, narrowly traded. Boring.
High hits +/-:
12:15
14:00
15:40
Coy
after8, u still holding longs
VC signal still 50 percent short
QQQQ from 39.95
reza,nope sorry didnt post.closed longs very early this morning at 999.7.i was looking for a re-test of the globex highs to short,but i may have missed the boat here.
What happened to PG
WAVE C in progess
wave i of C -GOT the OPEN BURST +50 dow spx to 1001.46
wave ii now setback to -994.53
might take 3 wves a-b-c
10;30 is actual timing for 13day cycle,and could set the stage for late day rally after neg astro at 12:20pm
power index shows as above
Still expecting FRIDAY open BURST to top off
COY-
Your HO HUM day seems like it was yesterday??
Jen
Dont get too excited about a big open - read the blog and you'll see where the road map expects the mkt to go.
Jay
Ravi, u expecting this to slide all the way to 986
Its NOw 10:35, and it does look like the 13day cycle hit EXACTLY at 10;30
spx held above yesterdays low of 991.79
wave ii maybe finished
wave iii of C should take 5 waves
180bars at 2pm
204bars at 4pm
given the bar cycles
A high at 3pm would be expected
for high C
That means (iv)of C @ 4pm,
and
V of c at OPEN Friday
END of rally
Reza;
Once the NEXT slide begins TOMRROW after OPEN, a break of 991 means a possible slide to 940
by 9th open.
Jay
Jay
Looks like I got excited for nothing.
Jen
Jay,
I just found your blog. I appreciate you sharing your trading analysis. Is it hard to learn your system? I know it probably took years to perfect it. Any recommendations on books or websites to read?
Thanks!
JJ
Another update. Here is the URL
http://www.stocktiming.com/index.htm
Are you Confused yet? Now the Fed and Government will do battle with the markets. The Fed's Plosser is saying that the Fed will have to aggressively raise interest rates because a recovery is occurring quickly. In opposition, Pimco's Bill Gross says with no more Gov. stimulus, the economy could have a double dip recession. Meanwhile, the 10 and 30 year yields were suggesting that a weak economy is ahead, or possibly even deflation. At the same time, Wilbur Ross is saying that 500 more banks will fail by the end of 2010. Do the math ... that is 1.03 bank failures per day between now and the end of 2010. Confused yet? We are seeing propaganda, market intervention, hope building, and market forces interact. Bottom line? The Fed does NOT want to see the market slip into a correction and retest the lows ... so they will likely try to intervene. This could make the markets seem chaotic in the next week or so, and stimulate some unusually high volatility swings ... not a kind of environment I like to invest in.
Remain in cash on the short side for now ... and come back to this page at 1:15 PM today when we will post an intra-day update relative to conditions. I suspect we could see the effects of some market interventions today from the Fed/Gov. trying to move the market up.
Our C-RSI fell to 5.2 which was way below the 10.8 level again ... but, it was still positive and testing the C-RSI support line.
Dear ANON
Stay TUNED and You will learn
not just from me, but the others here who are very astute traders
ANd Yes, IT took years to develop, and only in the last 2 years has begun to bear fruit
Please do register as a follower
its good for my ego,
and when You post a comment, please ID yourself with at least an initial
thanks
Jay
VC signal cover QQQQ 50 percent short
from 39.95 at 39.40 for a nice profit. The other 50 percent was covered at 39.70 on Monday.
OK
GET READY - bulls
the ACTIVITY INDEX has JUMPED from a LOW at 66 this AM to NOW at 225 and its now 1:30
Jay
finally, I got hammered on OIL/Energy.... Sold some of my banks though for a profit. Frig..
5 min fractal looks a bit like the state of play in the weekly chart as is...not sure where im going with this lol.theres a lot to suggest that we close near the highs of the day today,but im still concerned that theres a missing lower low that needs doing by tomorrow though.i had hoped to get 988ish or lower for a long set-up into next week.jay you have the 9th as a low? my delta solution has it as a high??? smaller stakes next week then.
Ung is showing some signs of life here. Not saying it's a buy, but it sure is setting up like one.
pg
After 8
9th LOW
14th High
15 DOWn again
Jay
sorry jj
I didnt see your intials
on my first read and we have another member with those intials
but please do register
thanks
Jay
stay tuned and spread the word
OH yeh jj
Im waiting for some one to pay me BIG bucks to learn what I know
[GGGG} fat chance
Jay
Reza
We are still working on (iv) that started at 991.97 yesterday. At 1001.46 cash spx has so far retraced only 23.6% of (iii). If we do not retrace any higher than that in (iv), I would target 1001.46-(1039.47-1023.13)= 995.12 as the bottom of first five down.
More important than the target for (v) is to get the confirmation that we are in an impulsive five wave down, and not in yet another 3 wave correction by any chance. That confirmation comes at any low below 991.97.
OK, I dont know WHY the 204 bar cycle truncated at 2:45pm, but IT certainly looks like it did
WAVE (iii) got to 991.79
WAVE (iv) REBOUND in progress
wv i got to 1001.46
wv ii got back to 992.25
wv 3 of iii started at 2:45pm today, and broke out above 1001.46
at close
___________________
Math
1039.47 - 991.79 = 47.68
47.68 X 61.8% = 29.47
return trip to 1021.26
That would = a dow rally of 150 pts
FULL MOON historically has been POSITIVE for stocks, and negative after.
I WILL BE SHORT 110% at that level, and I will consider re shorting GLD also
Jen
If you were HYPED up this Morning, TRY to contain your self tomrrow AM {g}
Jay
Jay,
Do you think we will still sell off after the employment report tomorrow morning? I see 1014 as next resistance.
ANON
Your question came after
my comment which already answered it
I respond better to those who id themselves at least with initials.
and prefer those who register as a follower
its good for my ego
ps;
I do try to respond to questions
but DO prefer comments which ADD to the discussion
Jay
Jay
I have to do a little portfolio "planning" end of September. Would you venture an opinion as to the market over the next 4 weeks?
Thanks, Jeff
Shorted the close today. I'm probably in the minority.
pg
Jeff;
I have mentioned this b4
Oct10th To march 2010 looks like a repeat of last year
Danger - Danger Will Robinson
The MOST serious part of the declines
will come in october, and again Jan to March
oct29 to Jan 10th simlar to Nov 21 to jan 6 last year
Summary
we get a MAJOR decline in october
Oct29 rebound to Jan10th
Secondary decline to late march 2010
Jay
Pg, you certainly are in miority. everyone is looking for 1014-1008 -1021. Bulls want it so they can get out. bears want it so they can get in as they were too catious after being burnt several times.
as a contrarian, you could be the winner. good luck.
Tomorrow PG, Jay, Ravi all will be proven right. Rally in Globex and/or AM will make the top and we see down impulse wave to 980 next week early. Or may be 956. Then one more failed attempt to make a new high to 1040 by that time jay's October date should be here.
Short on return path from 1005-1010 around 999 to ensure that V down has started.
Another good sober blog: ( no hype, no speculation but preserve asset and move slow)
http://www.tradingonlinemarkets.com/index.html
Good Day,
In the last few days I have updated several stocks (Cisco, Home Depot, and Gilead Sciences) on the watch list in anticipation of potential buys should good opportunities arrive with any pullback in the market. Over the next few days I will be updating additional companies on the Wathc list as well as sdding a few new ones.
In addition, I am preparing to issue buy orders for two short ETFs the Proshares Short S&P (SH) and the Proshares Short Russell 2000 (RWM) as a way to hedge the current long positions. After the sell off earlier this week, the market has turned up on low volume. This move is creating an opportunity to buy the short ETFs in anticipation of further weakness later in September. For now, I am looking for the re-test of the break on the 60-minute chart of the NASDAQ as my entry point, as long as we do not get a further move up.
Times like this can try our patience, as we must wait for the right entry points to come to us. They will be here soon.
Best Regards, Hans
Trading Online Markets LLC
Thx samamehta. We shall see.
pg
am waiting for limits to hit 1004.4 to short. a stop at 1009 if it does.looking for a morning low beneath 991 where i will long again keeping tight stop.a new low monday and i will be short until the 9th a la jay.if not still expecting a high on the same date.
NEW THREAD PLEASE
THANKS
mark
Jay,
How about making a new thread every day?
S
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