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Employ report subtle
Europe STILL higher over 1%
Activity index gyrating
at 7am = 300
at 8am = 100
at 9am NOW = 225
Resembles the FUTURES this AM
Power index still climbs from 550 at yesterday's close to 600 this AM - then lower
and is at 300 by the 9th
Propens index peaks this AM & heads LOWER by close into Satdy
IF 204 bars did not hit at yesterdays close, it might be a minor drag at open today
full moon is at noon
Im still planning to SHORT , but might not wait for 1021 which we might not get
spx 1009 could offer some strong resistence
more later
Jay
40 comments:
Jay,
Yeah, I was going to say that 1021 might be a stretch for today.
But we're also not dropping at open like pg expected either.
I think it's generally an up day that sells off into the close.
Mark
Globex high is 1009 as i write 1008 is a VWAP and that would give a sell so I am going to look for 1007 to lay in my first short moves higher 1013 as 1014 is Fib number
Next should be fun hehe
Jay: Thanks for your forecast for the next few months. Appreciate the time and effort you put into this site. Have a great week-end
Regards, Jeff
in short again at 1004.3.stop 1010
LOOKS like we GOT to wv iii of (iv)at spx 1007.18 at 9:45
Wv iv of (iv) in progress or already done quickly at 10:10am
could be abc to the next bar cycle at 11;30= 228bars
That would leave v of (iv) to make ONE MORE HIGH from spx 1010 to 1015
38% = 1010
50% = 1015
Full moon HOUR would be MOST logical place to occur
bigger down draft at 258bars at 2pm would setup a roll over for the day
Jay
its NOW 10;30am
If they break above 1007.28 in the next few minutes, the HOD might be at 11am
Im getting my trigger finger ready
[g]
Jay
Activity index
300 at 7am
100 at 9am
225 at 9:30am
166 at 10am
200 NOW at 10;30
there is a 30 to 60 min delay
overall it appears to be in a declining phase
11am is usual suspect for TURN of the DAY
Daneric has dow levels
9370 At 38%- done = SPX 1007.28
9406 @ 50% = 1010
9442 @ 62% = 1015
Jay
moving stop to 1012.looks like it wants to complete the "w" at 1010
jay, good calls. we breached 1007.2. let us know when you see the HOD. thanks
HOD should be at 11am
watch the tape
wave v of (iv) must make it to 1010
OK, they are on the way to target
got to bug out to catch a trade
back after 11am
Jay
Assumption
Start of wave 1 aug28th 1039.47
End of wave 1 sep1st 1014.62
End of wave 2 sep2nd 1028.45
End of wave 3 sep2nd 991.97
TARGET FOR WAVE 4 OF IMPULSE
relatively to wave 1: 995-1004
relatively to wave 2: 997-1008
relatively to wave 3: 998-1007
These are intervals which will catch 70% of the
retracements.
---------------------------------------------------------
next we can calculate the expected target for wave C of 4.
Assumption:
Start of A 991.97
End of A 1001.59
End of B 992.11
TARGET FOR wC of 4
relatively to wave A: 1002-1011
relatively to wave B 1001-1009
These are intervals which will catch 70% of the
retracements.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fianlly we can calculate the expected target of wave 5
of C of 4.
Assumption:
Start of w1 992.12
End of w1 999.45
End of w2 995.08
End of w3 1007.16
End of w4 1001.63
TARGET FOR w5 of C
relatively to wave 1: 1006-1015
elatively to wave 3: 1007-1014
These are intervals which will catch 70% of the
retracements.
------------------------------------------------
TO SUM UP
It is clear from all these taret zones that 1009 +/- a point ot two is
the target for this move.
Best wishes,
S
Using EW it is possible to generate statistics
for the most common wave relationships,
this way one can triangulate wave targets:
------------------------------------------------------
Assumption
Start of wave 1 aug28th 1039.47
End of wave 1 sep1st 1014.62
End of wave 2 sep2nd 1028.45
End of wave 3 sep 2nd 991.97
TARGET FOR WAVE 4 OF IMPULSE
relatively to wave 1: 995-1004
relatively to wave 2: 997-1008
relatively to wave 3: 998-1007
These are intervals which will catch 70% of the
retracements.
---------------------------------------------------------
next we can calculate the expected target for wave C of 4.
Assumption:
Start of A 991.97
End of A 1001.59
End of B 992.11
TARGET FOR wC of 4
relatively to wave A: 1002-1011
relatively to wave B 1001-1009
These are intervals which will catch 70% of the
retracements.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fianlly we can calculate the expected target of wave 5
of C of 4.
Assumption:
Start of w1 992.12
End of w1 999.45
End of w2 995.08
End of w3 1007.16
End of w4 1001.63
TARGET FOR w5 of C
relatively to wave 1: 1006-1015
elatively to wave 3: 1007-1014
These are intervals which will catch 70% of the
retracements.
The hugest down draft comes after 16:00 today, extended equity, options and futures trading to 16:20.
Obviously, they're holding over the long weekend.
Sorry about the double posting, something went wrong.
Let me add that if those levels are seriously breached to the upside, like seeing 1020. then this isn't a wave 4, but something else.
Best wishes,
S
Some one's probably mentioned it already, but we're down from here, we've seen today's high.
Frankly, I don't understand why we're still above flat at this time.
COY
Agree
full moon at noon is only hang up that I can see
other than that, the HOD has been seen at 9370 = a 38% retrace at 1008.58
they needed to break above 1008.99, but didnt
its 11;55, and we will see very soon how they react after the full moon
Activity index declining further to 133 at 11;55am
Accelerated selling should start
anytime now.
ps
this is the BEST DILAOGUE we have EVER offered
THANKS TO EVERYONE who participated this week
Jay
Oh, yes 12:01. I missed it.
cut losses at1009,bad day at the races today.this is not turning as far as i can see.last hour high by my reckoning.
VC signal 50 percent SHORT qqqq
at 40.27.
Every additional point upwards now is decreasing the probability for this being a wave 4.
This now looks more like a multi day wave B rater than a wave 4. so the drop of last week was wave A.
Best wishes,
S
Jay,
Coy might be right ... last time we had NFP release was 8/7 and we rallied all the way into the close and came down 2 days later. So we may yet see 1020
tick...tock...waiting for price to drop
lola
FROM FLASH:
MKT: SIMON & JOSHUA were rt again on turns; 9/2 (JOSHUA), 9/3 (SIMON); go figure; full moon today http://www.stardate.org/nig...
about 1 hour ago from web
WHAT DOES rt MEAN IN TWITTER LANGUAGE?
Sam, I have NO IDEA what FLASH is saying
FULL MOON TODAY
Merc Retro Sunday
combined they mean trouble for bulls
From 9;55 this AM, it looks like 5 waves which got to the FIBO levels we posted at 1015 to 1020
Use the LINK I put on the main page over on the right for HELGE He shows today exactly as it it happening now
Jay
samamehta, I think rt means right.
Jay have you shorted yet? looks like we topped doesnt it...
Victor,
What is the stop loss on the QQQQ
Thanks
Reza
Anyone know 2x or 3x of IHF (healthcare)
YES, rrman
Im short
Jay
Jay,
Are we going to carry the shorts over the long weekend
beautiful looking H&S for the day chart and broke the neckline too.
Selling of the the long-term bonds all day has driven up yields (and equities). Bond market closes at 15:00.
Reza
I really dont think you read this blog
I know ive posted this several times
SPT9th LOW
Spt14 rebound high
Take a look a the link to Helge-
Has has the same thing
for next week
Jay
I shorted at the wrong time today, missing the high. I'm holding.
Now this is my kind of a bullish day.
Makes me want to hold my Longs over the weekend and wait for the big Gap Up on Tuesday morning.
This Bull don't wanna die.
Jen
BULLS
do you believe?
hell yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
jen
not a bad week S&P down 12 pts for the week...
The futures contract will roll on Sept 10th My birthday ;) last time it rolled back in June was at 950 right where we opened the year up too. interesting eh? the 50 EMA on the daily chart is 971 that would run the bulls off Pluto will move SD Sept. 11th interesting date. The market can move up but it won't be easy for the bulls this month.
have a nice weekend see ya at the bottom
DJI bottomed 3rd sept 10AM with a slightly lower low and SPX failed narrowly to make a new low.
So it was possible to count 5 done on DJI, whereas SPX may have failed fifth.
So it was not clear if we are in a (iv).
Any way, the move from yesterday morning is five waves with an extend fifth. That is not corrective for DJI, though one can still cal it a 3-3-5 correction for spx.
So, there is a confusion on count again. One can not rule out that 978-1039 was only f(i) wave of C and earlier this week was a (ii) of C and we did i of (iii) of C today. In that case, shorts may need to be existed on the correction on Tuesday of latest 23 point move up.
Weekend is here to look through this in a more thorough manner.
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