Chart from COLUMBIA public chartsWhy is it?
when a trader gets bullish- they profess to the moon
when a trader gets bearish-they profess a crash
As I HAVE POSTED several times
The trading from Jan 14th ECLIPSE to Jan 22nd should emulate
Wave 1 lower to 1125
Wave 2 rebound to 1145 on Jan 22nd
Wave 3 DOWN to Jan 29
wave 4 on feb 1
wave 5 DOWN on Feb 2nd
BUT THATS JUST WAVE "A" of a corrective pattern that should take us to April 6th
before finding a footing for the next rally to late June.
Jay
21 comments:
MKT: we bounced right on the SPX 1132 reversal today right off the 1150.5 yesterday; DOW still no weekly sell; DOW wkly support 10,570
The Flash
up we go
Jay are you considering wave 1 done since we hit 1128 on Friday or do you think we will dip back down to 1125 sunday or monday on the futes?
SAMAMEHTA:
Would you be so kind as to ask dear Simon of Flashfusion to elaborate upon next week please? Will weekly support hold while triple leg highs ensue or does weekly support breach first triggering a weekly sell followed by rise.
Carol
I dont know WHY I post updates when
it seems they dont get read.
Up Tuesday to 1142 till about 11am
Down Late Tuesday and LOW early Wed
at 90bars at 10;30 along with Moon 135 Mars= uncertainty
Jay
Carol
FLASH will NOT respond with an answer to that question
He will ONLY repeat what Simon tells him
Jay
Ptg, will you be long from tues till then 22nd then?
Tues is a bradley turn btw. that's why i wanted to wait till then to go long
JAY.
I read your forecast. Thankyou. I just wanted Flashfusion's opinion too. Yes, I realize Simon is a data spreadsheet.
Carol
p.s. What does rrman think about next week? Thankyou.
Saturday Morning 9AM Jan 16 2010 Comment for Jan 15 Close:
Forecast remains bullish until the S&P reaches the chart Objective at the upper red envelope, now S&P 1166-ish in the table. Fridays sharp decline probably means the red Tiny T has expired, however the longer small black T may have some life in it now that the Arms Ratio has a reasonably oversold condition.
The Green AD Line which is in a strong uptrend is obviously rising with the bigger Current Short Range T's trend projected into May, so these corrections are likely just to be an interruption to the basic T Theory bull market advance.
A new buying opportunity is usually signified when the blue Volume Oscillator penetrates the lower red dashed line which is basically an oscillator lower envelope. Penetration going down identifies a traditional oversold conditions from its standpoint. Penetration of the upper red dashed line identifies overbought conditions.
The best new buying opportunity generally requires both a high Arms Ratio and the Volume Oscillator oversold condition plus a rising bottom pattern in the oscillator to confirm an upturn. We will watch for that criteria.
Terry
Hey Carol why don't you register it makes Jay happy :-)
Jay and Helge seem to agree about a low on wed I am trying to decide about monday on the futes i am short into the close I think we might get some more down on the futes sunday night and maybe monday morning just cant figure out what monday night will do yet I think tues will bu up down like Jay says
so I'm guessing Wed will be flash's tradeable bottom before his three legged top days of 19/21/25...
rrman. you don't see 22nd as the high?
rrman, I think Flash has 19, 22 and 25/1 as his 3 leg turns, not 1/21.
JMHO, I'm more inclined to think we top on 1/28, +/- 1 day, because 1/28 is 55 fib days from the 12/4 high. The 55th fib day has called every top since I started tracking it in August 09. Usually, the top is a day early. FOMC minutes on 1/27 could be a catalyst for a top: a rally after 2.15pm which is immediately sold off in an A wave down. This happened back in Sept too when SPX rallied to 1080 after the FOMC minutes were released, and then sold down to 1060 by EOD.
Yes Linton I do...i was just recapping flash's twitter....
MKT: next 3 leg turn up is 1/19, 1/22, 1/25 but there is a trading low in there between now & then so go find the day :-)
about 4 hours ago from web
MKT: we still have a vacuum down at about 1100 SPX; a lil dangerous here; I don't call trading positions as that is your responsibility :-)
about 4 hours ago from web
MKT: for z record, I don't do crashes, nor call MKT tops per se; there's enough tweets to see SIMON's capability now easily
about 4 hours ago from web
MKT: For z record still no wkly sell on the DOW; in fact the tape continues to be stretched upward; 1/4,1/6,1/8 was just a trading string
about 4 hours ago from web
MKT: Rocking & DOW puts in new highs for year, as advertised; 1/4, 1/6, 1/8; traders don't see these up legs & most never will, SIMON Says
about 24 hours ago from web
MKT: several have asked how does SIMON work ? he's workin just fine ! about 320 thousand data points strong
12:47 PM Jan 6th from web
MKT: highs coming in right on schedule; 1/4, 1/6, 1/8 (one more left to go), as advertised
12:46 PM Jan 6th from web
The FLASH
Jay,
There is a VERY Important turn date coming up soon. You might want to read my weekend update? This one is important.
I can't tell how I know about the date, only that someone shared it with me, and there is an extremely high probability that it is accurate.
Just passing the info on to you and your group. Take it for what's it's worth, but this person has been correct in calling big market turns 9 out of 9 times in the last couple of years (within 1-2 days accuracy).
Red
red.
the turn date's 9-10 feb?
Thanks Red,
We'll know soon enough next week how accurate your prediction is. We all know how deadly accurate "Simon" can be which he has proven time and again, so contradicting Jan.19,22,25 high will be your prediction's first test which if it fails, won't lend credibility for the rest of the forecast. And ofcourse we know the implicatons if you pass next weeks test with flying colors.
Thanks again Red and thankyou Jay for your roadmap. Jay's roadmap also deserves alot of credence as well.
conky
carol, Jay is right about flash. no one can make a call like you are asking.
Jay's model seem to agree with other's research I follow who have been very accurate.
Jay's tuesday call 1145 spx cash works as it will be a failed high. Expext major drop. If you are short at 1145, you may be safe.
I am going for swing trade to catch the whole move. --next six to 8 weeks.
Flash just published that 3 leg up could be delayed by bigger cycle.
I am looking for spx in 9xx area.
Thanks jay for your work
MKT: 3 leg upturns can get overwhelmed by larger cycles only to reappear again once a sell off completes; 3+ TRIN on FRI. at SPX 1132
about 7 hours ago from web
from flash
SAMAMEHTA:
Thankyou for responding.
Okay. Yes I like Jay's forecast the best and will look for a mid-week low on the 20th followed by a rally to the 25th followed by a collapse.
Flashfusion agrees that his 3 highs could occur in a larger falling trend.
Carol
Thanks carol for laying out next week's expectations
a very good ew analysis
from a blog: http://pugridironsma.blogspot.com/
Jan 18th, 7:30pm: With the markets closed in the USA today Jan 18th, it's time to reflect on what has transpired last week and what could be on tap this week. We had two peaks to 1150 last week. The first one likely ended wave 3. Then there was an aggressive sell-off to 1131, followed by a second peak to 1150 and an agressive sell-off to 1131 again. This can be viewed as a simple a-b-c flat (i.e a=b=c) that ended wave 4. We are now set for the final 5 wave move up for wave 5 of [5] of P1 with a target of 1160 to 1170 in the next week or two. Wave (1) up could already have begun late in the day on Friday.
The alternateve (in red on the 15-min chart below) is that second peak of 1150 was actually the wave 5 of [5] of P1 top. In this case the aggressive 5 wave move to 1131 on Friday was (1) of 1 of A of P2. And the end of the day bounce was wave (2). Wave (2) should re-trace to 1140 to 1142 before wave (3) drops down towards the 1115 area in a very agressive sell-off this week. And the final target for wave 1 of A could be in the 1105 to 1110 area. Breaking they key levels of 1130 and then 1113 to 1115 will confirm this scenario.
So the key level to watch tomorrow morning is the 1140 to 1142 area. If the market pushes up Tuesday morning and passes through 1142, then holds the 1131 level on a pull-back, the first scenario with new highs to 1170 maybe in play.
15-min Chart (EOD Jan 15th with options):
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