This was previously posted PRIOR to DEC 31st.AND as ive posted this chart and similar several times
4th continues lower at open- rebounds some and closes lower
5th becomes the worst day of the week
6th opens lower, but rebounds
7th opens higher but tests the previous low at 3;30
8th opens higher and keeps going
11th is a SOLID biz day
Jay
32 comments:
Look at Helge's daily chart 2nd one down he seems to think Mon and tues are big up days....I don't see how it seems the trend has changed...
http://www.cyclelt.com/INT.htm
rrman
I agree with you IF, and I mean IF Helge is always right or has at least an 70% accurate forecast.
You speak as though Helge's forecasts are 85%-100% on the money all the time. Ccmon give us a break. We didn't fall off the wagon yesterday.
I've known about Helge's work for a long time but never take to seriously because over the years never had the consistency worthy of following closely....alot like Chartsedge maps. Sure some weeks theyre bang on, other weeks theyre on cheap drugs and a whole lot of weeks inbetween where it's a mishmash.
Donnie
These new maps from Jay are very interesting. I think in large part because Jay is using a lot of different sources while also keeping a mor open mind than most others. As long as the adjustments are relatively mild, I think they can be quite useful. So far I like them and it quite agrees with my own work too.
Donnie
Donnie, point well taken Helge has has issues but lately its worth closely watching his daily as it has been tracking fairly close I post it
as something I look at with Jay's forecast to see if they are tracking or not so take it for what its worth...don't know why your being so antagonistic with the falling off the wagon comment If you don't like my posts just ignore me PERIOD. I try to keep the conversation going in here there are a lot of folks watching that get stimulated into speaking up.
Zigzag from trading to win posted his latest T chart its interesting seems to agree with Jay's tuesday target...
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/312885/SPX%20Turn%20Tues%202010-01-03%20at%2012.17.35%20PM.png
rrman
ok sorry. That wagon comment was unnecessary. Still have a hangover from NewYears.
Donnie
one point of view--very interesting
from one of the blogs:
Happy New Year everyone. Last week my Intermediate trading system registered its first sell since the repeat sell of May 19, 2008. So, what now?
The wave structure models continue to suggest that the structure that began on November 21, 2008 will not end until a wave structure high registers at either 1158, 1257 or 1298. It is also possible that 1198 will be a significant high within this sequence. What I think we have here is a big pothole in the rally sequence from March 2009 which could result in us seeing something around 900 fairly soon. As such, I have closed out all invested and trading longs and moved to the short side of the market. My current stop is last week's high.
For those familiar with my wave labeling terminology, the easiest, but not only, way to think of the markets position is to label the wave from March 9, 2009 to December 31, 2009 as wave A'. Wave B' ought to be a simple correction of wave A' and, if they get a bit excited here, I would not be surprised to see it end this month. If this analysis is correct, the minimum we probably see is something around 1020. The nice wave balance is at 900. There are a couple of ideas in between. Let's get the decline going and maybe the early clues will identify the final target.
Good trading all...
Mike
For those interested, in Charles Nenner's latest interview he noted that the market indices will TOP at the end of this week...that is Thurs/Fri of THIS week. I find that more likely than the January chart. Helge's chart seems likely also, a two day rally... keep in mind, lots of folks are investing their 2010 IRA contributions this week. I for one will be transferring $5,000. into my IRA tomorrow, though it will be sitting in CASH for at least a few days....
Update for Sunday January 3 2010. Happy New Year. This week and next week I will be spending most of my time updating the year-end data at American Shareholders OnLine. Our Managed accounts gained 40% for the calendar year with very low volatility based on my "Best Bond" strategy. Part of my updating for the new year requires reviewing this key approach to accommodate the current Advance-Decline Ts projection of a major August 2010 equity peak as the logical endpoint of the rally from the March 2009 low. This very long term view will become the basis for a whole new strategy needed to accommodate the next Bear Market.
So this week my single topic is consideration of my Longest Range MegaTs which provides the necessary 10 to 20 year perspective to prepare us for the next bear market. This equity decline should last from the current projected August 2010 major peak to the next 40 year cycle low expected around 2013.
To view this discussion it is best if you first click on the audio file below and get it started, then put it into the background, then open a new window in your browser and pop open the PDF chart in the new window to follow the chart's in-progress audio discussion.
Terry Laundry
Well gap up looks like 630 eastern we're at 1118 with at least 1121 on tap looks like a big up day all day to me.....guess I'll keep my longs from friday and try to decide this afternoon whether or not to hold overnight..
wow, rrman is actually right for a change. Miracles do happen.
ptg
rrman,
I was long myself. I am not sure about exit yet. Please post when u exit. $ down big, seems it is a good idea to hold it.
According to JPM, rally until 1300, then 10% correction. Rest of time around 2% correction. Leaders will financials, energy and techs
then there's Reza. Whatever the market is Reza somehow is on the right side, nevermind he never posted it.
What an ass.
ptg
PTG, I was long since Dec 30. So even now, I did not get out on 31st. I am not interested to play short until the trend changes
Activity index was at 200 at 5am
and at 9 am is now at 66
its shows early strength giving way
some time this morning
Jay
But still expecting high around 2pm
sure Reza, sure.
ptg
Short!!!!
x
Wave 5 in actions boyss
rrman, thinking about holding until new moon, until something changes. Whats ur thoughts
Upside target 1137?
Upside target 1137?
I'm short. Buying lot's of puts
sam
yeah Reza good longterm trade I'm trying to get into JO in my IRA missed it this morning before it popped a point going to wait for a pullback in my trading account still long prolly stay long overnight but have to see how Jay's 2pm high works might get out there and wait for the pullback to get back in long for another day or so
It's possible since we bounce at the bottom of the trendline that we will go back to the top
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S0HBHyNOK3I/AAAAAAAADU0/yHtBDSPSUro/s1600-h/2010-01-04-TOS_CHARTS.png
I'm buying shorts at 1028.98.
stp
triple top
x
Jay
You're right. She's finally toast now. Exhaustion is complete. Entering puts and gonna sit back and watch the bulls cry like little girls.
bob M
I'm betting the farm here on the short side. Huge negative divergences are impossible to ignore.
Carl Futia
FlashFusion
MKT: SIMON says our first up leg is 1/4/2010 and it has indeed arrived; 2 more left to go 1/6/2010 and 1/8/2010
out longs at 1127.75 think we get a lil pullback here
still more upside to come,maybe another 30-40 from here,then i will short.still have 16th as THE top.plenty of fibb time relationships to support this.happy new year evryone by the way
I think for today, we change character end of day.
Remember - Grain of salt.
High hits: 13:05, 14:05
Low hits: 14:45, 15:55
Coy
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