Now & Then

thanks Alice
Govt can do whatever they want, but they cant stop the MARKET CYCLE.
IF they had done NOTHING last year from Spt to March,
stocks STILL WOULD HAVE RECOVERED EXACTLY THE SAME.


Andre and others

What would be the BEST BEAR scenario given a price decline from Jan 22 to Jan29th
and what would be the least case scenario ??

in other words
what are the parameter levels at which we could expect support to hold?

We will have approx a 500 point rebound from March 9th to Jan 22.

I had posted data showing an 18 month decline from Oct 10- 2007 to March 9th, 2009
Then 9 months + from Mar9 to Jan 22
22 months = 55% equaling the 55% price gain of 500pts - or damn close to it.


Any decline [ LATE JANUARY] in such a short time slot should NOT represent anything
but a normal setback within a RISING trend still due to reach its pinnacle
on or about JULY 22nd which is equal to 34 FIBO months adding 18 + 9 + 7.

If we apply FIBO to the 500 pts gain, we could see losses of 8%-13% as an expected correction
for example - We had pivots hit on
July8th @ 887 or 7%
Nov 2 at 1030 or 6%

at spx 1070 = to 21% of the 500 pts gain or 100 pts
which only = an 8% loss from spx1165 level

Looking back at Mar 2003 to Oct 2007, corrective loses were limited to about 10% maximum

From a LOW expected on Jan 29, and or FEB2nd
we can then expect a continuation of the UPTREND to JULY 22nd
HOW HIGH, you ask.
wow, you sure are needy[g]

Just a GUESS, but
62% = spx1230
78% = spx 1376

As one example in 1938 the rebound was 62%.
I would venture to say that spx 1230 looks right
which means we can go from 1070 to 1230 from Jan 29 to July22nd

more later
Jay